Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Is Putin going to be willing to launch serious strikes within Russia is the question. Given he's mobilised a reluctant civilian population you can imagine many won't oppose Wagner on the ground.
 
Today it will be clearer how much support Prigozhin actually has inside Russia. But the longer this goes on, the better it gets for Putin. Prigozhin needs to keep up the pressure and continue towards Moscow as long as Russia's forces are still reluctant to engage Wagner.
 
Putin might not launch nukes against foreign nations, but, Wagner could become a real threat to him, certainly can't rule it out for this scenario.

Wonder what the world will say then, he would only be attacking his own country, words of condemnation, nothing more?
 
Putin might not launch nukes against foreign nations, but, Wagner could become a real threat to him, certainly can't rule it out for this scenario.

Wonder what the world will say then, he would only be attacking his own country, words of condemnation, nothing more?

I’m pretty sure you can rule out Russia nuking itself :lol:
 
Putin might not launch nukes against foreign nations, but, Wagner could become a real threat to him, certainly can't rule it out for this scenario.

Wonder what the world will say then, he would only be attacking his own country, words of condemnation, nothing more?

Oh, for god's sake, forget the nukes. It's just bullshit. Nobody will launch nukes.
 
For what it's worth, there is a sizeable Russian military presence in Ukraine that Putin could use to defeat Wagner. But that would mean leaving Ukraine.

Remarkable stuff.
 
Interesting to see who else comes out of the woodwork now. Putin has a long list of enemies both inside and outside the country, and they’ll likely never get a better opportunity to make a move than right now. Russian forces under pressure in Ukraine due to the counteroffensive, and internal turmoil with a military coup attempt. The scene is set.
 
Who knew that allowing private military companies to form, freely recruit thousands of disenfranchised people from penal colonies and then use state resources to arm them with heavy weaponry like IFVs, MBTs and artillery would see them turn against the state when the state becomes weak?

I have to say. Putin for a long time enjoyed a reputation akin to an evil genius or puppet master here in the West. But in the last few years the facade has completely fallen. He should have stayed happy with his kleptocracy by milking the Russian state and people to the end of his days. But he had an ambition to build a great legacy and enter a pantheon of Russian leaders by expanding the borders of his huge state. And now he reminds me more of a Russian version of the British classic, pub-dwelling, bumbling, nationalist idiot full of “Great Empire” revanchism and bravado but very little intellect to back anything up.
That's a very nice summing up.

I would add though that Putin is probably slightly deranged.
 
Might be a stupid question at this point of the conflict, but: How does someone like me differentiate wagner groups in something like that from ordinary russian troops?

It's not a stupid question, and I'd take with a pinch of salt anyone who says they definitively can.
 
My first thought was exactly this - What are 25,000 or 50,000 troops going to do against planes in the sky?

Well presumably try to shoot them down. You need a lot of missiles to take out 25,000 trained and armoured troops I should think.
 
Oh, for god's sake, forget the nukes. It's just bullshit. Nobody will launch nukes.
Going by the state of the Russian supplies, I’d be surprised if they’re flight-worthy. Would likely just detonate as soon as some rusty bit caves in and thus obliterating the user.

They know they’re in shite condition. Agree that no nukes will be used.