Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

True. Unless this is some sort of elaborate 4d chess fake by Prigozhin. All other signs point to him getting killed since he has made Putin look incredibly weak by fleeing the capital.

Another thing Putin and Trump have in common: running away to their bunkers.
 
If Gerasimoigu get replaced and Wagner continues to exist, it would appear that he got what he wanted from Putin by blackmail. Not a small feat.

That sounds like a terrible deal for Putin, which I doubt he would accept given that he's used to being a totalitarian dictator. I can't see Wagner continuing to exist in any capacity after this if Putin remains in charge, as it would be far too much a threat towards the survival of his regime.
 
I don't really understand Prigozhin's thought process in accepting this deal. His primary aim seems to have been to prevent Wagner from being absorbed into the MOD and his power/influence eliminated. He's supposedly accomplished that, but he's also abandoned all of the tactical advantages he had in this scenario along with putting a huge target on his bald head. He's moving from a place where Putin and Shoigu can't attack him without jeopardizing the broader war back to the front lines where he could catch an errant missile.

The only way for Putin to save face and prevent a repeat is to kill him, which I imagine could happen soon.
Putin could save his face by throwing Shoigu and Gerasimov under the bus. He could make a statement that the military leadership actually ordered an attack on Russian troops (i.e. Wagner), and that the people responsible are being arrested. In general, both Putin and Prigozhin have plenty of support among the Russians, and I think most would be ready to forgive them both.
 
Coup is cancelled boys. Thy did a deal
darth-vader-alter-the-deal.gif
 
How long before he's dead? 2 weeks?

At this rate, the Wagner soldiers who protected him as recently as a few hours ago may get to him before Putin does. Unless of course this a giant smokescreen.
 
I reckon prigozhin has the majority of the military and the security services on his side. He's probably been given control of the defence ministry and putin will take a back seat ala Medvedev style
That's arguably the scenario that makes the most kind of sense to me. Prigozhin will say that he 's shown over the last 24 hours that the people who were in charge are completely incompetent, so put him in charge of the entire military and he'll not only turn his troops around but he'll win the war for Russia. Putin won't be happy, but agreed to the terms since things looked so bad for him.

Prigozhin has to know that Putin would still look to take him out at some point (perhaps after the war is over), but maybe he feels that by then he'll have such a strong grip on the military that he can actually launch a full-scale coup and become the next ruler.

Either that or Putin has Prigozhin's family.

Of course, most likely it's something else entirely.
 



Given everything that's happened, this may be a good time for Putin to reassess his need to be in Ukraine. Not likely though.
 
Exactly. He'll hate Lukashenko for appearing more competent than him as well.

Also, the sheer speed at which both Lukashenko fled Minsk and Putin/Medvedev fled Moscow, suggests these guys are absolutely bricking it at the thought of being overthrown and executed. Not knowing when that inevitable moment is coming must be excruciating.
 
Also, the sheer speed at which both Lukashenko fled Minsk and Putin/Medvedev fled Moscow, suggests these guys are absolutely bricking it at the thought of being overthrown and executed. Not knowing when that inevitable moment is coming must be excruciating.

Yep, and regardless of what it signals to his own populace, it is clear that Putin is terrified of his own inner circle. It doesn't seem like he thinks he can rely on the loyalty of his own military, his security forces or even those around him
 
Yeah. He was in prison for child prostitution, then took over a restaurant that was a meeting point for Moscow's high society. This way he met Putin and his friendship gave him the opportunity to open restaurants all over the country, as well as cater for the whole Russian army. He made billions and with that money, he created Wagner.
No he wasn't?
 
Yeah, I agree. I think he'll throw the kitchen sink at Ukraine in order to win the war, but then fail as an administrator when running the country.
Someone will bump him the first chance they get. I doubt this guy is going to respect any deals they have with China, but the US will see this as an opportunity to get Russia.
 
Progzhin almost engineered a coup, there is no way he’d be stupid enough to get assassinated by Putin’s goon squad. Some feckery must be afoot.
Maybe Putin has promised to step down?
Do a Krushchev
 
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If anyone will dear me to say it’s not russians war it’s Putin’s next time:

It’s a blood thirsty nation that deserves to be completely isolated from the western world. They’re not like us.
 
Progzhin almost engineered a coup, there is no way he’d be stupid enough to get assassinated by Putin’s goon squad. Some feckery must be afoot.
Maybe Putin has promised to step down?
Do a Krushchev

I feel like he may have been acting on emotion rather than a coherent strategy, and once he had a chance to come to his senses, may have began looking for a way out. Trouble is, he’s already crossed the Rubicon and will probably die soon. Unless of course he was deceiving Lukashenko, which wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility.
 
This is just the beginning of whatever this insane new phase is. Putin has been betrayed and left looking impotent. Let the carnage ensue.