Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Why bother with using Ukrainian SF in Sudan? Shouldn't they be used in...you know, Ukraine?

Kyiv Post has exclusively obtained two videos purporting to show Ukrainian special forces operators hunting mercenaries employed by the Kremlin’s Wagner Group in Sudan.

According to a source in Ukraine’s security and defense sector, an operation is currently ongoing to “clean up the Wagner PMC, their local terrorists and the Russian Federation's special services” in the African country.
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https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23722
 
Rajma said:
Special forces not that useful in the trench warfare is my guess.
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I imagine they also want to kill as many Wagner as possible for what they did to Ukraine's civi's. Every dead Wagner would be a morale boost, on top of that imagine being Russian and getting sent away from the front line but still get hunted down by the enemy. It'll do massive damage to morale.
 
RedSky said:
I imagine they also want to kill as many Wagner as possible for what they did to Ukraine's civi's. Every dead Wagner would be a morale boost, on top of that imagine being Russian and getting sent away from the front line but still get hunted down by the enemy. It'll do massive damage to morale.
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I imagine its more than than. If Russian troops are in Sudan, they are operating there for a reason. It will be in Ukraine's (and all our) interests to thwart what they are doing.
 
Simbo said:
I imagine its more than than. If Russian troops are in Sudan, they are operating there for a reason. It will be in Ukraine's (and all our) interests to thwart what they are doing.
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Probably making a lot of money there you'd imagine which would help their war effort. Disrupting it is less likely to earn them money and influence that could help them at home.
 
Suedesi said:
Some interesting data from Mediazona on their track of Russian casualties they were able to confirm. (doesn't matter whether you think they undercount or inflate the numbers, it's the trend that's interesting).
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They certainly undercount as they only count those deaths that they can confirm — as in, they have the literal list of names. Just fyi.
 
Real Name said:
Heard some rumours, seen some articles, sounds like bollocks.
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Yeah of course its bollocks but Russia will always win the (dis)information war.

Nothing has changed with the stance on this among the people that matter. Any peace deals that gives up territory would be catastrophic for Ukraine and Europe, giving up on the people living under occupation and pushing another inevitable crisis a few years down the line. Plus with the enormous gains Ukraine has made this year, there's no real pressure on Ukraine to seek peace, nothing that comes close to the disaster of the alternative.

What gains?
Defeat of black sea fleet and development of own naval warfare capability that is on track to isolate Crimea.
Development of own long range weaponry, converted neptunes, s-200, cheap mass produced long range drones.
All the new tanks and equipment we've not really seen engaged yet.
Replenished air-force imminent, not just the fact its more modern F-16's, Ukraine lost a lot of its air-force in the opening days and is desperate for a replenished fleet that will bring new options.
New arms manufacturing programs agreed with US partners and Rheinmetall on Ukrainian soil.
Massive air defence improvements.
Continued mass destruction of Russian equipment.
Continued deterioration of Russian economy.

Russian agents will of course highlight the low hanging fruit, low territorial changes and play on the hopes some people had of a "great summer offensive", calling it a failure. Meanwhile Ukraine is sat back bludgeoning Russian assaults. The fact Russia hasn't managed to collapse that bulge in the south despite their best efforts is quite telling.

Russia is not some bottomless pit of manpower and equipment, a myth perpetuated from WW2 when they were propped up by the US/UK and fighting for their homeland. They are now fighting for nothing and only have the mighty N. Korea to look to. Might take 5 years, but this only ends when Russia burns out. Ukraine has no choice but to fight on.
 
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Simbo said:
Yeah of course its bollocks but Russia will always win the (dis)information war.

Nothing has changed with the stance on this among the people that matter. Any peace deals that gives up territory would be catastrophic for Ukraine and Europe, giving up on the people living under occupation and pushing another inevitable crisis a few years down the line. Plus with the enormous gains Ukraine has made this year, there's no real pressure on Ukraine to seek peace, nothing that comes close to the disaster of the alternative.

What gains?
Defeat of black sea fleet and development of own naval warfare capability that is on track to isolate Crimea.
Development of own long range weaponry, converted neptunes, s-200, cheap mass produced long range drones.
All the new tanks and equipment we've not really seen engaged yet.
Replenished air-force imminent, not just the fact its more modern F-16's, Ukraine lost a lot of its air-force in the opening days and is desperate for a replenished fleet that will bring new options.
New arms manufacturing programs agreed with US partners and Rheinmetall on Ukrainian soil.
Massive air defence improvements.
Continued mass destruction of Russian equipment.
Continued deterioration of Russian economy.

Russian agents will of course highlight the low hanging fruit, low territorial changes and play on the hopes some people had of a "great summer offensive", calling it a failure. Meanwhile Ukraine is sat back bludgeoning Russian assaults. The fact Russia hasn't managed to collapse that bulge in the south despite their best efforts is quite telling.

Russia is not some bottomless pit of manpower and equipment, a myth perpetuated from WW2 when they were propped up by the US/UK and fighting for their homeland. They are now fighting for nothing and only have the mighty N. Korea to look to. Might take 5 years, but this only ends when Russia burns out. Ukraine has no choice but to fight on.
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Thanks. Sounded like crap anyway, especially the part about Israel agression on Gaza being one of the reasons for the war in Ukraine to stop. Something in the sense weapons from USA and European coutnries will not go to Ukraine at the same rate.
 
Real Name said:
Thanks. Sounded like crap anyway, especially the part about Israel agression on Gaza being one of the reasons for the war in Ukraine to stop. Something in the sense weapons from USA and European coutnries will not go to Ukraine at the same rate.
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Well that thought has some merit. If Israel would require weapon deliveries from countries who also support Ukraine there could be a bottleneck. But as of now this scenario doesn't seem to happen. As it looks Israel is calmly making tabula Gaza and that's it, there seems to be no escalation beyond that.

At the beginning it wasn't clear if any Arab state or group would support Hamas in force, by now we know they prefer to just talk, but nobody wants to die for people they usually dislike themselves. Without that Israel doesn't have to fight a true army and everything needed for that can still be send to Ukraine.
 
stefan92 said:
Well that thought has some merit. If Israel would require weapon deliveries from countries who also support Ukraine there could be a bottleneck. But as of now this scenario doesn't seem to happen. As it looks Israel is calmly making tabula Gaza and that's it, there seems to be no escalation beyond that.

At the beginning it wasn't clear if any Arab state or group would support Hamas in force, by now we know they prefer to just talk, but nobody wants to die for people they usually dislike themselves. Without that Israel doesn't have to fight a true army and everything needed for that can still be send to Ukraine.
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Yeah there's a bit of a "watch this space" thing here I think as no doubt Russia will be doing everything in its power, in its Iranian influence, to push an escalation. The US did well to get ahead of that and give strong signals they would intervene if Iran/Hezbollah does.
 
Simbo said:
Yeah of course its bollocks but Russia will always win the (dis)information war.

Nothing has changed with the stance on this among the people that matter. Any peace deals that gives up territory would be catastrophic for Ukraine and Europe, giving up on the people living under occupation and pushing another inevitable crisis a few years down the line. Plus with the enormous gains Ukraine has made this year, there's no real pressure on Ukraine to seek peace, nothing that comes close to the disaster of the alternative.

What gains?
Defeat of black sea fleet and development of own naval warfare capability that is on track to isolate Crimea.
Development of own long range weaponry, converted neptunes, s-200, cheap mass produced long range drones.
All the new tanks and equipment we've not really seen engaged yet.
Replenished air-force imminent, not just the fact its more modern F-16's, Ukraine lost a lot of its air-force in the opening days and is desperate for a replenished fleet that will bring new options.
New arms manufacturing programs agreed with US partners and Rheinmetall on Ukrainian soil.
Massive air defence improvements.
Continued mass destruction of Russian equipment.
Continued deterioration of Russian economy.

Russian agents will of course highlight the low hanging fruit, low territorial changes and play on the hopes some people had of a "great summer offensive", calling it a failure. Meanwhile Ukraine is sat back bludgeoning Russian assaults. The fact Russia hasn't managed to collapse that bulge in the south despite their best efforts is quite telling.

Russia is not some bottomless pit of manpower and equipment, a myth perpetuated from WW2 when they were propped up by the US/UK and fighting for their homeland. They are now fighting for nothing and only have the mighty N. Korea to look to. Might take 5 years, but this only ends when Russia burns out. Ukraine has no choice but to fight on.
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Re your last paragraph- I think this is a common misconception which was perhaps true in the days of the Soviet Union, but not now. If you look at the demographics of Russia it has a massive bulge of people aged about 35-45. And a significant dip when it comes to the age group 18-30 (importantly the exact age range it takes it’s current cannon fodder from). To give you an extreme example there are a little over half as many 28 yr olds as there are 38 years olds. This could be (slowly) catastrophic for Russia. It already has a declining population, it needs the 18-30s to take the jobs of the older generation as they retire or die. There was already nowhere near enough to do that, and now they have to do without circa 250k dead or injured, and 250k on active service. And that’s not even considering the apparent 500k-1m people, largely young people, who have left the country.

Edit- some of the injured soldiers may return to the workforce, or to the army, so I may be counting some twice, though the point still stands.

Edit 2. You might be interested to know that the Soviet Union population peaked at 286m in 1989. Today its (Russia’s) population is 143m, exactly half.
 
‘I Am Dreaming It Will Stop’: A Deadlocked War Tests Ukrainian Morale

“Frustration is rising,” he said, including a sense that poor village boys are dying while civilians from wealthier families in the cities find ways to avoid conscription. Draft dodging is on the rise, as men hide to avoid receiving notices or try to bribe officials at local recruiting centers.

“We should be honest,” Anton Hrushetsky, the director of the Kyiv institute, said in an interview. “People are becoming pessimistic.”
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/world/europe/ukraine-war-morale.html
 
Raoul said:
They won't ever stop fighting until they get their land back imo. Even if there was a ceasefire, a counterinsurgency would still continue indefinitely for the rest of Putin's time in office.
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Not sure about that. If Russian troops were freed up from the front they would be free to brutalise the occupied population. That stuff works for a long time - ask Machiavelli or the Israelis.
 
If one guy feels this way then many more who can't speak on camera likely do as well.

 
Raoul said:
Russia hasn’t had the upper hand since the 2nd or 3rd month of what is now the 20th month of the war. The only person it’s over for is Putin, since he can’t achieve his objective of taking over all of Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians, who most thought would flee, have rebuffed what many believed 20 months ago was the 2nd or 3rd best military in the world.
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https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/...peace-negotiations-ukraine-sources-rcna123628


https://x.com/nbcnews/status/1720607177180688865?s=61&t=qa_KcI_uVKetRBEtgLLzyA
 
Every sane person on planet earth could have told you this would be the final outcome, and this was a completely needless war.

So after 100,000 dead, billions spent (*cough* laundered *cough*), and a country left in ruins, they’re suing for peace.

Ukraine was used by the military industrial complex.
 
Suedesi said:
Every sane person on planet earth could have told you this would be the final outcome, and this was a completely needless war.

So after 100,000 dead, billions spent (*cough* laundered *cough*), and a country left in ruins, they’re suing for peace.

Ukraine was used by the military industrial complex.
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There wont be any peace deal, any deal signed with Putin isn't even worth the paper its written on, every Ukrainian knows that.

What final outcome? This is a war of attrition, we all knew that, so just keep supplying Ukraine until Russia eventually breaks, its the only option.
 
Morty_ said:
There wont be any peace deal, any deal signed with Putin isn't even worth the paper its written on, every Ukrainian knows that.

What final outcome? This is a war of attrition, we all knew that, so just keep supplying Ukraine until Russia eventually breaks, its the only option.
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Should we wait for Medvedev to get back into power? He seems more reasonable.
 
ExoduS said:
Should we wait for Medvedev to get back into power? He seems more reasonable.
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Its the russian culture, not just Putin, so i'm not sure it helps to have a change of leadership.

Russia, as a people, are completely unhinged, obsessed with being the big empire, east europeans should just shut up and count themselves lucky that they get to be ruled by their superiors.
 
Morty_ said:
Its the russian culture, not just Putin, so i'm not sure it helps to have a change of leadership.

Russia, as a people, are completely unhinged, obsessed with being the big empire, east europeans should just shut up and count themselves lucky that they get to be ruled by their superiors.
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Right. Typical Russian wakes up, takes a shot of vodka and goes back to sleep dreaming of ruling over Bulgaria.
 
Raoul said:
Let me know when the Ukrainians take them up on it. Meanwhile Biden is preparing a 60b package for them.
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And does that package has to make its way through the house?
 
Morty_ said:
Its the russian culture, not just Putin, so i'm not sure it helps to have a change of leadership.

Russia, as a people, are completely unhinged, obsessed with being the big empire, east europeans should just shut up and count themselves lucky that they get to be ruled by their superiors.
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I suppose its completely reasonable to generalise the Russian people as a belligerent, racist collective who only yearn to conquer their neighbours, right?
 
Kaos said:
I suppose its completely reasonable to generalise the Russian people as a belligerent, racist collective who only yearn to conquer their neighbours, right?
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In my view? Yes, the culture of Russia itself is the main problem, not Putin alone.

I do think most Russians view themselves above the countries around them, yes.
 
Suedesi said:
Every sane person on planet earth could have told you this would be the final outcome, and this was a completely needless war.

So after 100,000 dead, billions spent (*cough* laundered *cough*), and a country left in ruins, they’re suing for peace.

Ukraine was used by the military industrial complex.
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Rajma said:
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