Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

One thing I'm wondering is how much manpower both sides have deployed at the moment. We keep hearing that Russia has manpower superiority but last year former Ukrainian minister Reznikov said Ukraine had 700,000 in the armed forces: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62118953

We know the initial Russian invasion force was max 200K based on Western estimates. They've mobilized since then of course.
 
Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro

 
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Raoul said:
Ukraine has crossed the Dnipro

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Is this really new?, warmapper on twitter has shown Ukraine forced on the left bank of the river for at least a week. Seems to be small numbers of special forces. They're going to hit the same problem that Russia did 12 months ago, supply over the river. Without a bridge that is safe from Russian attack, I don't see how larger numbers of troops are deployed and supplied.
 
foolsgold said:
Is this really new?, warmapper on twitter has shown Ukraine forced on the left bank of the river for at least a week. Seems to be small numbers of special forces. They're going to hit the same problem that Russia did 12 months ago, supply over the river. Without a bridge that is safe from Russian attack, I don't see how larger numbers of troops are deployed and supplied.
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Its about 24-36 hours new. Being discussed extensively on Twitter at the moment. It shouldn't really come as a surprise that they have managed to cross the river with a small amount of troops, which is similar method to how they eventually reclaimed Kherson last year. Once the Russian defense cracks, more ordinary Ukrainian troops are likely to cross.





Edit. There's a tweet about the same thing about a week ago as well. Not sure if this is the same one or a different crossing.
 
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Rajma said:
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I was in Lviv yesterday. Literally no one gives a feck about sirens any more. I’m walking to a restaurant while the sirens are blazing and it has a sign on the door saying “We do not serve customers during air raid alerts”. I push the door and find it open, I pop my head inside and ask the waiter “are you serving?”. Looks at me confused… “yes of course”.

This is testament both to the chadness of Ukrainians and the effectiveness of Western air defences. I’ve been in Ukraine for 3 days now and had 3 air raid alerts, one each day. On all 3 cases all loitering munitions and missiles got shot down. Hardly anything can land on the cities any more. Russians only have the depletion of Ukrainian air defences to hope for. So long as steady supply of those munitions continues, the Russian reach will be very much reduced to the front lines.
 
Raoul said:
Its about 24-36 hours new. Being discussed extensively on Twitter at the moment. It shouldn't really come as a surprise that they have managed to cross the river with a small amount of troops, which is similar method to how they eventually reclaimed Kherson last year. Once the Russian defense cracks, more ordinary Ukrainian troops are likely to cross.





Edit. There's a tweet about the same thing about a week ago as well. Not sure if this is the same one or a different crossing.
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Ukraine has been building this bridgehead for weeks now, started with infantery but meanwhile even heavy equipment like a BTR-4 has been spotted there. So far they are operating under cover of their own artillery on the right bank and apparently have placed air defense and electronic warfare equipment on the Dnipro islands.

They seem to be really commited to this attack to open a new and more dynamic front (very little minefields and other fortifications, some of what existed was washed away when the dam was destroyed and the river just flooded it's banks)
 
MadMike said:
I was in Lviv yesterday. Literally no one gives a feck about sirens any more. I’m walking to a restaurant while the sirens are blazing and it has a sign on the door saying “We do not serve customers during air raid alerts”. I push the door and find it open, I pop my head inside and ask the waiter “are you serving?”. Looks at me confused… “yes of course”.

This is testament both to the chadness of Ukrainians and the effectiveness of Western air defences. I’ve been in Ukraine for 3 days now and had 3 air raid alerts, one each day. On all 3 cases all loitering munitions and missiles got shot down. Hardly anything can land on the cities any more. Russians only have the depletion of Ukrainian air defences to hope for. So long as steady supply of those munitions continues, the Russian reach will be very much reduced to the front lines.
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Also exhaustion. You gotta live. 18 months in and of course sirens are given less credence. We saw the exact same thing happen with COVID where everyone is super vigilant at first, but it can never be maintained.
 
MadMike said:
I was in Lviv yesterday. Literally no one gives a feck about sirens any more. I’m walking to a restaurant while the sirens are blazing and it has a sign on the door saying “We do not serve customers during air raid alerts”. I push the door and find it open, I pop my head inside and ask the waiter “are you serving?”. Looks at me confused… “yes of course”.

This is testament both to the chadness of Ukrainians and the effectiveness of Western air defences. I’ve been in Ukraine for 3 days now and had 3 air raid alerts, one each day. On all 3 cases all loitering munitions and missiles got shot down. Hardly anything can land on the cities any more. Russians only have the depletion of Ukrainian air defences to hope for. So long as steady supply of those munitions continues, the Russian reach will be very much reduced to the front lines.
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That's exactly what my in-laws have been telling me. Going there in 3 weeks with the wife. First time since the war started.
 
VorZakone said:
One thing I'm wondering is how much manpower both sides have deployed at the moment. We keep hearing that Russia has manpower superiority but last year former Ukrainian minister Reznikov said Ukraine had 700,000 in the armed forces: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62118953

We know the initial Russian invasion force was max 200K based on Western estimates. They've mobilized since then of course.
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The first wave of mobilization was around 300k, plus you have a semi-steady supply of volunteers (money talks, but no one really knows how many), army reserves (I think the overall army personnel was around 1 mil before the war, although who knows how many were battle ready & could be spared from their current deployment) and at least tens of thousands of criminals that signed contracts with Wagner/MoD.

I doubt that Russia has a lot more men (if any) on the front, it’s the future mobilization potential that’s worrying. I’d imagine that Ukraine has depleted a lot more of its human resources. It’s unlikely that Russia will have the next wave of mobilization before the presidential election though, which would take place in the spring.
 
The latest in a string of unexpected deaths of prominent people.

 
Britain estimates 300K casualties for Russia. This includes wounded.

 
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Looks like things are getting a bit more desperate on the Russian front.
 
JuriM said:
https://news.err.ee/1609167412/ppa-...-border-crossings-if-migration-pressure-rises

Finland & Estonia are under mass immigration hybrid attacks by Russia.



Zelensky briefing the international media on potential Russian hybrid attacks regarding Serbian - Kosovo - Bosnia line.
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Surely the Serbian leadership is not as stupid as to allow the country to be used as a distraction tactic by the Kremlin and to risk another NATO campaign against it for absolutely no benefit to itself. Surely?!?
 
The Kremlin is also attempting to replenish its shrinking population with Ukrainian refugees, some of whom were forcibly moved to Russia, as well as stolen Ukrainian children — a war crime, for which the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued warrants against Putin and Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, Maria Lvova-Belova.

Russia says it has taken at least 700,000 children.
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Rybar (Russian milblogger) reports that Armenia (member of Russia's "anti-NATO" CSTO) is delivering up to 200 Tochka-U missiles (ballistic missiles with up to 150km range)... to Ukraine. If true this would be another step in the massive strategic shift Armenia makes away from Russia after Russia failed to fulfill it's duty to support Armenia in the recent skirmishes and short war against Azerbaijan.

Putting aside Ukraine for the moment as a result of this war we have seen Finland and Sweden moving towards NATO membership and Armenia and Kazakhstan moving away from Russia as a strategic partner/leader. Even if Russia should conquer the whole Ukraine it would still have lost strategic influence in Europe and Asia.
 
Apologies if posted earlier. Beats a Canadian shot iirc but without the advantages of thinner air & elevation. This shot was done over flat terrain...


 
calodo2003 said:
Apologies if posted earlier. Beats a Canadian shot iirc but without the advantages of thinner air & elevation. This shot was done over flat terrain...


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Yep, the previous record (3,540 meters; 3,871 yards) belonged to a Canadian JTF2 soldier firing his McMillan TAC-50 rifle against an ISIS soldier in 2017. This shot by the Ukrainian sniper was made at a distance of 3,800 meters (4,156 yards) with a rifle that no one knows anything about it.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Yep, the previous record (3,540 meters; 3,871 yards) belonged to a Canadian JTF2 soldier firing his McMillan TAC-50 rifle against an ISIS soldier in 2017. This shot by the Ukrainian sniper was made at a distance of 3,800 meters (4,156 yards) with a rifle that no one knows anything about it.
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Just read an article which had the rifle’s specs in it. I’ll try to find it again & post it on here.

e - never knew there was a US version of The Sun…

https://www.the-sun.com/news/9664246/ukraine-sniper-new-world-record-longest-kill-russia/amp/
 
ExoduS said:
War in Ukraine is the fault of US and NATO | John Mearsheimer and Lex Fridman - YouTube

If you can get passed a title and first 5 minutes it is actually a very good conversation.
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His argument on Russia and Ukraine is incredibly flawed. He claims Putin is acting on insecurity because he fears NATO expansion, which completely ignores the deeper issue that Putin is acting based on insecurity because he fears a strong, Democratic Ukraine on Russian borders would animate Russians to overthrow him so they could live in a similar system. This is why Realism has its limits when analyzing international politics. Its all state centric and ignores the motivations of specific individual actors (which can generally only be assessed through constructivism).
 
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