Israel - Palestine Discussion | Post Respectfully | Discuss more, tweet less

[Beachryan]

1 in every 14 Jewish Israelis is a settler. That is not an extreme minority but a rather integral part of Israeli society and, increasingly, its politics. I'm also not entirely clear on whether the settlement number includes the settlers around East Jerusalem, which takes it to around 1 in 10 Jewish Israelis.

Not a single politician, Netanyahu or otherwise, since 67 has significantly moved the needle on settlements. I'm also not sure that you've recently looked at a map of the settlements if you think they could easily be absorbed back into the 67 borders.

I know it wouldn't be easy, or popular, but I don't really see another option if Israel wants actual security. Then again, I'm not particularly sure that returning to the 67 borders would guarantee such security anyway. I'm 100% sure the actions taken in the last month massively decrease Israel's future security. It's all so stupid.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[MDFC Manager]

I read that the Gazan health ministry has stopped reporting deaths in the north of Gaza because it no longer has access there. If so I wonder what the true death toll is when accounting for the north and all the missing people. Probably well over 20,000 by now, probably closer to 25,000

23k as the below, until yesterday.

 

[2mufc0]

I read that the Gazan health ministry has stopped reporting deaths in the north of Gaza because it no longer has access there. If so I wonder what the true death toll is when accounting for the north and all the missing people. Probably well over 20,000 by now, probably closer to 25,000

It will be a lot more than reported, there will be a lot of dead bodies under the rubble they weren't able to retrieve. The 20k imo is a very conservative number.

 

[2cents]

Israel Is Losing this War
Despite the violence it has unleashed on Palestinians, Israel is failing to achieve its political goals.

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/israel-gaza-war/

 

[Raoul]

It will be a lot more than reported, there will be a lot of dead bodies under the rubble they weren't able to retrieve. The 20k imo is a very conservative number.

That’s a good point. There will also be quite a few who die as tunnels get flooded, bombed, or sealed off with foam, so the death count could well end up in the 30-50k range.

 

[Sly]

It will be a lot more than reported, there will be a lot of dead bodies under the rubble they weren't able to retrieve. The 20k imo is a very conservative number.

Not to mention the hundreds of thousands of wounded with no appropriate medical care. Western world completely lost the moral high ground. The problem is that I don't see enough pressure on Israel to stop the bombing and I've read the next couple of weeks will be worse.

 

[Giggsyking]

I read that the Gazan health ministry has stopped reporting deaths in the north of Gaza because it no longer has access there. If so I wonder what the true death toll is when accounting for the north and all the missing people. Probably well over 20,000 by now, probably closer to 25,000

International org says the Gaza health numbers are probably an underestimation as the number of people under rubble is probably in the thousands.

 

[Giggsyking]

Not to mention the hundreds of thousands of wounded with no appropriate medical care. Western world completely lost the moral high ground. The problem is that I don't see enough pressure on Israel to stop the bombing and I've read the next couple of weeks will be worse.

65k wounded. Thousands of children with amputated limbs.

 

[Raoul]

Israel Is Losing this War
Despite the violence it has unleashed on Palestinians, Israel is failing to achieve its political goals.

https://www.thenation.com/article/world/israel-gaza-war/

I didn’t find the article particularly convincing. If the Israelis control Gaza and kill or apprehend the entire Hamas leadership and most fighters, and in the process destroy the entire underground tunnel system, then proceed to implement a technocratic government in Gaza (all the while continuing to maintain the security perimeter), then all of this will be viewed as a massive win for them. At that point they would simply resume their negotiations with the Saudis to normalize relations, and any outstanding Hamas officials floating around Qatar, Turkey, Beirut would get picked off by the Mossad.

 

[Raoul]

They cannot feasibly control Gaza anymore than they were already doing. They already controlled the security perimeter and all movement in and out of people and goods.

They cannot defeat Hamas either, because you're asking to defeat an ideology that hates your guts due to decades of atrocities committed against them, not to mention the destruction being caused now.

All just fallacies

The end goal, as has been stated by multiple officials and by multiple EU officials as to what the Israel's had requested, is that they're going to annex at least the northern part of Gaza. What they really want to do is push the whole lot of them into Egypt, and annex the whole of Gaza, but currently it's untenable. In short, it's a land grab, which is the core of zionism and has been repeated often by Zionists (and Zionist members of the Israeli government alliance only very recently).

https://www.ft.com/content/75971d8b-e2fd-4275-8747-0bd443673483
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67652494

The Israeli goal since the 10.7 attacks has been to remove Hamas and demilitarize Gaza. If by their own objective they are already well on their way to achieving this, then this is a huge win for them. The Saudis will fall in line with the outcome because they have broader equities and interests to consider.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

The Israeli goal since the 10.7 attacks has been to remove Hamas and demilitarize Gaza. If by their own objective they are already well on their way to achieving this, then this is a huge win for them. The Saudis will fall in line with the outcome because they have broader equities and interests to consider.

Do you believe that Israel is sincere when they state their goals?

 

[Raoul]

Yes, if you take what the Israelis say at face value. It's a fallacy though for the reasons I listed, and most political commentators who have a reasonable degree of critical thinking skills agree as such.

The land grab however will be a win for Israel, no doubt about that. In the short term, definitely? Long-term? Wherever the Palestinians end up they're not like to forget what's been done to them very quickly.

The Palestinians will end up back in Gaza I suspect as there’s nowhere else for them to go and many will want to stay at home. Post Hamas Gaza will probably end up a UN controlled enclave with a new technocratic government that is free of militant groups.

 

[Raoul]

Do you believe that Israel is sincere when they state their goals?

I do when they say they want to remove Hamas from Gaza, as that is a very rational and predictable reaction to the 10.7 attacks that any country would’ve pursued. The alternative would be that they didn’t take any action against Hamas and simply did a hostage swap, which was obviously pure fantasy that drove the Hamas’ fatal miscalculation in the first place.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

The Palestinians will end up back in Gaza I suspect as there’s nowhere else for them to go and many will want to stay at home. Post Hamas Gaza will probably end up a UN controlled enclave with a new technocratic government that is free of militant groups.

Ever heard of Nakba?

 

[Bosnian_fan]

I do when they say they want to remove Hamas from Gaza, as that is a very rational and predictable reaction to the 10.7 attacks that any country would’ve pursued. The alternative would be that they didn’t take any action against Hamas and simply did a hostage swap, which was obviously pure fantasy that drove the Hamas’ fatal miscalculation in the first place.

I'm not disputing that they want to remove Hamas, but do you seriously believe that to be the end goal? If Israel politicians are heavily leaning on zionism, which they are, their end goal is to destroy the very idea of Palestine existing.

 

[Kaos]

The Palestinians will end up back in Gaza I suspect as there’s nowhere else for them to go and many will want to stay at home. Post Hamas Gaza will probably end up a UN controlled enclave with a new technocratic government that is free of militant groups.

What are they returning to though? Northern Gaza is a ruined wasteland, and the South will likely follow suit. The Israelis made sure to make the strip inhospitable for years to come, hence why they bombed key infrastructure and institutions. How could Gazans feasibly move back?

It's clear the goal here is to cleanse them over the Rafah border and Israel moves in with a blank slate to colonise Gaza.

 

[Raoul]

What are they returning to though? Northern Gaza is a ruined wasteland, and the South will likely follow suit. The Israelis made sure to make the strip inhospitable for years to come, hence why they bombed key infrastructure and institutions. How could Gazans feasibly move back?

It's clear the goal here is to cleanse them over the Rafah border and Israel moves in with a blank slate to colonise Gaza.

It will need to be rebuilt. I’m sure the international community could contribute significantly in this regard, especially the US, EU, and wealthy Middle East states. None of these countries would support the Israelis staying there as settlers.

 

[R'hllor]

What are they returning to though? Northern Gaza is a ruined wasteland, and the South will likely follow suit. The Israelis made sure to make the strip inhospitable for years to come, hence why they bombed key infrastructure and institutions. How could Gazans feasibly move back?

It's clear the goal here is to cleanse them over the Rafah border and Israel moves in with a blank slate to colonise Gaza.

They are returning to their homes and improved life ( if you playing naive and acting dumb )

 

[Kaos]

It will need to be rebuilt. I’m sure the international community could contribute significantly in this regard, especially the US, EU, and wealthy Middle East states. None of these countries would support the Israelis staying there as settlers.

Have you seen the images? It would be years for it to be rebuilt into a remotely habitable state. What are the Palestinians supposed to do until then? Put their lives on hold while over a million of them rot away in huge camps as they wait for their old communities and livelihoods to be restarted?

And considering the US is already supporting settler expansionism in the West Bank and EJ everyday (evident with them exercising their veto whenever the topic of condemnation comes up in the UNSC) then I very much doubt they'd start reeling the Israelis in here. They'd regress to form, simply blame Hamas and claim its in Israel's security interest to create a 'buffer' community which will no doubt develop into a fully fledged settlement. Its not without precedence.

 

[africanspur]

It will need to be rebuilt. I’m sure the international community could contribute significantly in this regard, especially the US, EU, and wealthy Middle East states. None of these countries would support the Israelis staying there as settlers.

None of these countries support the Israelis staying in the West Bank as settlers either (or the Golan Heights for that matter) and yet here we are, a state not functioning as an international pariah but sponsored by the world's only superpower, who enable them to do exactly that.

I agree with the article that the Israelis are far more likely to push them out and deal with the consequences (and 'ask for forgiveness' ) later, as opposed to asking for permission.

I feel like you've also kind of missed the point of the article, when you mention that the Israelis are likely to achieve their war aims. Yes in the short term, there is no doubt that they will absolutely crush Hamas militarily and leave them no longer running the strip. But just like the failure of Israel's policy of 'managing' the security situation in Gaza was not measured in failure in the immediate term but the medium term (through the most deadly day in its history), so too will the failure of this attack be measured.

 

[Raoul]

Have you seen the images? It would be years for it to be rebuilt into a remotely habitable state. What are the Palestinians supposed to do until then? Put their lives on hold while over a million of them rot away in huge camps as they wait for their old communities and livelihoods to be restarted?

And considering the US is already supporting settler expansionism in the West Bank and EJ everyday (evident with them exercising their veto whenever the topic of condemnation comes up in the UNSC) then I very much doubt they'd start reeling the Israelis in here. They'd regress to form, simply blame Hamas and claim its in Israel's security interest to create a 'buffer' community which will no doubt develop into a fully fledged settlement. Its not without precedence.

I don’t think it would take long at all given that Gaza is a tiny place and there would still be some infrastructure left in place. There are plenty of options on how to go about rebuilding. For instance, the Israelis could negotiate it as part of their normalization deal with MBS, where he throws some money at rebuilding parts of Gaza (thereby casting himself favorably both domestically in Saudi, as well as regionally). Alternatively, the UN could set up a fund to finance rebuilding projects with many international donors chipping in. There would be plenty of political will to get it done given everything that’s happened.

 

[Kaos]

I don’t think it would take long at all given that Gaza is a tiny place and there would still be some infrastructure left in place. There are plenty of options on how to go about rebuilding. For instance, the Israelis could negotiate it as part of their normalization deal with MBS, where he throws some money at rebuilding parts of Gaza (thereby casting himself favorably both domestically in Saudi, as well as regionally). Alternatively, the UN could set up a fund to finance rebuilding projects with many international donors chipping in. There would be plenty of political will to get it done given everything that’s happened.

None of this answers the question as to what happens to the million odd Gazans in the interim. Where are they supposed to go while regional powers 'negotiate' their fate?

 

[Raoul]

None of this answers the question as to what happens to the million odd Gazans in the interim. Where are they supposed to go while regional powers 'negotiate' their fate?

They would obviously stay in Gaza in temporary accommodation while construction goes on. This would be the far less difficult thing to resolve than wrangling a consortium of willing partners to actually do the rebuilding itself.

 

[R'hllor]

So casually taking a piss, i am actually in awe.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

700 000 Palestinians were displaced by Israel during 1948 Nakba, never to return home. Not taking everything Israel says with a grain of salt makes one either very naive or to some extent malevolent.

 

[Raoul]

A rational response but one any sane person knows is impossible. It's like saying let's remove the Viet Cong or the IDF, it's impossible unless you kill every single member of that ethnicity because 1) you can't identify every member and 2) new members will spring up of what was already a low tech guerilla orginisation

So what Israel really mean when they say they want to "remove Hamas" is
- Collective punishment of civilians and infrastructure, if some Hamas member die along the way, great
- Annexation of land

That's what people who support Israel 'removing Hamas' are really supporting

A more recent example would be Al Qaeda and ISIS. Both are similar ideologies that despite the ideas behind them still existing, the players have been killed or apprehended, their material capability removed and their geographic footprint eliminated, each of which have collectively resulted in these groups being marginalized into irrelevance. Hamas would be a significantly easier effort given they only exist in any meaningful way on a tiny strip of land that is geographically cut off by the IDF. Therefore if you extrapolate the amount of progress in terms of land gains the Israelis have already made in Gaza in just six weeks, I think we know how all of this is going to end.

 

[Idxomer]

A more recent example would be Al Qaeda and ISIS. Both are similar ideologies that despite the ideas behind them still existing, the players have been killed or apprehended, their material capability removed and their geographic footprint eliminated, each of which have collectively resulted in these groups being marginalized into irrelevance. Hamas would be a significantly easier effort given they only exist in any meaningful way in a tiny strip of land that is geographically cut off, therefore if you extrapolate the amount of progress the Israelis have already made in Gaza in just six weeks, I think we know how all of this is going to end.

Wrong.

 

[Raoul]

Wrong.

Close enough given one is a metastasized version of the other.

 

[Idxomer]

Close enough given one is a metastasized version of the other.

Oh, ok thought you were comparing their ideologies to Hamas and not to each other.

 

[2mufc0]

Not to mention the hundreds of thousands of wounded with no appropriate medical care. Western world completely lost the moral high ground. The problem is that I don't see enough pressure on Israel to stop the bombing and I've read the next couple of weeks will be worse.

There were stories about having to operate on children without any any anesthesia, it's a truly awful situation. It's not just the western world it's also the Arab neighbours who have done feck all and also guilty to an extent, although the main blame is with the US.

 

[Idxomer]

I've been seeing an increase in the same type of replies to similar tweets in the last 10 days.

It does seem Musk has done what that war criminal told him after their meeting.

 

[Raoul]

It's not a good comparison at all. You picked them because they're Islamic but it completely ignores all the political and geographic factors.

They might cripple Hamas as in their leaders and infrastructure, but what do you think will happen 5 years down the line when Gazans are still stuck in their tiny little prison, with no freedom, and when the 1m kids who've had to sit by helplessly and watch their families get slaughtered grow up? I say it's impossible because Israel want to inflict destruction but are doing nothing for the root cause (in fact they're making it worse). Hamas version two will spring up sooner rather than later and what then? Justifiable collective punishment and pushing them into smaller parcels of land?

The clearest way to see whether the moral compass is right or not is to always switch the Israelis and the Palestinians around. If the Israelis were stuck in Gaza and the IDF attacked, would Hamas be justifiable in all that Israel bombing it to the ground to remove the IDF? No. But the political and media landscape paints a narrative that one side are good and the other are bad.

I picked them because they are ideologies that have been successfully removed as threats in recent years because their ability to cause harm has been degraded to where they are no longer meaningful players. Hamas are far less decentralized than the other two and can therefore be removed with far less resources and in far less time than (for example) Al-Qaeda; and we're seeing it happen in slow motion every day. Therefore, the "you can't eliminate an ideal" narrative, is probably not a very convincing argument in this case because an ideal without infrastructure, land, or people to implement it, is largely useless.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

Hamas can be removed, but new Hamas will spring up immediately afterwards because Hamas is not source of trouble, but rather a symptom of Israel's maniacal mistreatment of Palestinians.

 

[Raoul]

Hamas can be removed, but new Hamas will spring up immediately afterwards because Hamas is not source of trouble, but rather a symptom of Israel's maniacal mistreatment of Palestinians.

If what the Israelis are floating about the establishment of a technocratic government in Gaza (non-religious & non-militant) is true, then it would be very difficult for Hamas to somehow return because the Israelis would still maintain the security perimeter as the new government would be established (probably also with considerable UN coordination inside Gaza). That's a very different situation than the one from 16 years ago where the Israelis left Gaza and Hamas were allowed to simply walk in and rule Gaza as they wished.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

HALF OF PALESTINIANS STARVING… UN.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67670679

If it’s not first hand genocide, it’s indirect.

Either way, they know exactly what they’re doing and most of the worlds politicians are complicit and I hope they‘re never allowed to forget it.

I give up “trying to see both sides” (I actually gave up a while ago to be honest) .… feck useless American politicians, feck ours too but most of all… feck Israel Govt/Army.

(and yes, feck Hamas).

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

It will need to be rebuilt. I’m sure the international community could contribute significantly in this regard, especially the US, EU, and wealthy Middle East states. None of these countries would support the Israelis staying there as settlers.

I see that prospect as a replica of how Russia literally bought peace in Chechnya after they flattened that entire region to the ground in the 2000s. All they needed to do is to bribe the right people to keep things quiet during and after the rebuild.

Hamas can be removed, but new Hamas will spring up immediately afterwards because Hamas is not source of trouble, but rather a symptom of Israel's maniacal mistreatment of Palestinians.

?? What do they plan to do, genocide all the Palestinians? Anyway whatever this discussion is circular and pointless. Doesn't matter how many times I explain where the next iteration of Hamas will come from, you'll keep coming back with 'remove Hamas'. Didn't quite realise how effective that PR from Israel actually is. Hmm.

My years of watching geopolitics say that a number of powerful players (US, UK, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, etc.) will basically dish money to "buy" (or rather bribe) that peace in Gaza just like the Russians did with Chechnya, where Putin basically got the Kadyrovs in his pocket. It is a very cynical view and I don't deny the cynical nature, but it is what it is because it has been done before and it will happen again. There was a time I thought that Chechen resistance would survive after everything that happened there during the last Chechen war, but all remaining sentiment of resistance simply died out and Chechen civilians came back while Russia already bought out the key players (Kadyrovs).

Truth be told: no one among other serious Middle Eastern governments genuinely offer any support for Hamas and other future Hamas wannabes outside of saying whatever PR crap they will sell for internal consumption.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

If what the Israelis are floating about the establishment of a technocratic government in Gaza (non-religious & non-militant) is true, then it would be very difficult for Hamas to somehow return because the Israelis would still maintain the security perimeter as the new government would be established (probably also with considerable UN coordination inside Gaza). That's a very different situation than the one from 16 years ago where the Israelis left Gaza and Hamas were allowed to simply walk in and rule Gaza as they wished.

I'm sorry, but your views are in my opinion too one-sided and way too pro-Israel for us to keep discussing after this post.

First of, you are taking what Israel says as if it was more relevant than what Hamas says, why? Israel is at best at the same level as Hamas in terms of whether they should be trusted or not, although Hamas lied less in all this mess than Israel, which speaks volumes about Israel.

Second, you seem unable to comprehend that for average Palestinian, who is suffering for decades, ever since he was born actually, what Fatah and PA are doing in the West Bank is ridiculous, because they are essentially as powerful as a lamb would be in wolf's den. No weapons, no way to defend themselves, no way to stop settlers from evicting them, nothing.

We can judge Hamas and whether their terrorist attacks were the right choice or not (obviously were not), but honestly, and I'm absolutely sure that majority feels the same, if I was Palestinian who has seen numerous members of my family die, I'd hate anyone who'd ask me to not be violent towards my opressor. Therefore, Hamas as in -armed resistance to Israel- will exist as long as last Palestinians exist. It will be named differently, but PA on the West Bank has fared even worse than Hamas and Palestinians get subhuman treatment from Israelis there, even thought they chose to be non-violent, while their territories slowly diminished. Israel could have evicted people for next century in West Bank until it is all settled and there are no Palestinians and world wouldn't bat an eyelid. With Gaza it is different, Israel has had to commit genocide and rest of the world sees it and will remember it, regardless of what politics do.

 

[Raoul]

I'm sorry, but your views are in my opinion too one-sided and way too pro-Israel for us to keep discussing after this post.

First of, you are taking what Israel says as if it was more relevant than what Hamas says, why? Israel is at best at the same level as Hamas in terms of whether they should be trusted or not, although Hamas lied less in all this mess than Israel, which speaks volumes about Israel.

Second, you seem unable to comprehend that for average Palestinian, who is suffering for decades, ever since he was born actually, what Fatah and PA are doing in the West Bank is ridiculous, because they are essentially as powerful as a lamb would be in wolf's den. No weapons, no way to defend themselves, no way to stop settlers from evicting them, nothing.

We can judge Hamas and whether their terrorist attacks were the right choice or not (obviously were not), but honestly, and I'm absolutely sure that majority feels the same, if I was Palestinian who has seen numerous members of my family die, I'd hate anyone who'd ask me to not be violent towards my opressor. Therefore, Hamas as in -armed resistance to Israel- will exist as long as last Palestinians exist. It will be named differently, but PA on the West Bank has fared even worse than Hamas and Palestinians get subhuman treatment from Israelis there, even thought they chose to be non-violent, while their territories slowly diminished. Israel could have evicted people for next century in West Bank until it is all settled and there are no Palestinians and world wouldn't bat an eyelid. With Gaza it is different, Israel has had to commit genocide and rest of the world sees it and will remember it, regardless of what politics do.

I don't look at it terms of trust, but rather at the reality of what has happened and who has the actual power to do something about it. In this case, the Israelis have all the power and Hamas have virtually none. By this metric alone, it would be next to impossible to see a plausible scenario where Hamas come out of this intact. And this is even more so the case when you consider the US and much of the rest of western governments are behind the Israelis.

Therefore right now, no nation opposing the Israelis has the power to stop them, and until that changes, they will continue incrementally taking over Gaza until Hamas have nowhere left to hide, at which point it will be hard to make the argument Hamas are still a meaningful player in Gaza.

 

[Idxomer]

An interesting read.