Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
The so called Russian minority are actually Ukrainians since a large swath of southern and eastern Ukrainians speak Russian, but don't want anything to do with being a part of Putin's Russia. If you're concerned about minorities, perhaps you should begin your analysis by looking at how Crimean Tartars are faring in totalitarian, Putin occupied Crimea.
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Really? So you are denying existence of Russian minority in Ukraine? They are just Ukrainians who speak Russian. The attempt to force them to switch from Russian to Ukranian went well.
 
ExoduS said:
Really? So you are denying existence of Russian minority in Ukraine? They are just Ukrainians who speak Russian. The attempt to force them to switch from Russian to Ukranian went well.
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Well yes. The people you are referring to as Russian minority are actually Ukrainian citizens who speak Russian as their first langauge, but are culturally still pro-Ukrainian. This is why Putin's fabricated excuse of "protecting Russian speakers from Ukrainian fascists" is completely invented to justify a pretext to invading Ukraine and making it part of Russia.
 
4bars said:
How is possible that all the might of NATO countries can't match the shell production of Russia after 2 years? Not only match but on a scale 1:7
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Because NATO cares leas than Russia and doesn’t really want Ukraine to win, just to degrade Russian military capabilities. They are given enough to survive and nothing more.

If the west was serious, it would nationalise industries and convert to military manufacturing. It hasn’t and isn’t going to. Ukraine is flat broke, it’s domestic industry was largely concentrated in the Donbas region now under Russian occupation. Without continuing western support it isn’t going to be able to compete against the Russian economy on a war footing.
 
foolsgold said:
Because NATO cares leas than Russia and doesn’t really want Ukraine to win, just to degrade Russian military capabilities. They are given enough to survive and nothing more.

If the west was serious, it would nationalise industries and convert to military manufacturing. It hasn’t and isn’t going to. Ukraine is flat broke, it’s domestic industry was largely concentrated in the Donbas region now under Russian occupation. Without continuing western support it isn’t going to be able to compete against the Russian economy on a war footing.
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We are talking about 20 countries vs 1 with more powerful economies than russia. Acountimg that is 1:7, it means that is outproducing 140 times. And that without cojnting that thry can scramble around other allies non allies for it. Sorry but no. You dont need NATO to gear up to war economy.
 
Saw that Prokopenko, who was at Azovstal, joined Twitter. He posted a long message. I suspect his voice has major clout within Ukraine.

Those who are not yet serving in the Ukrainian Defense Forces must make a deliberate choice: to pick up arms and join the ranks of the military, or to become a reliable backbone for the army, working to support the country's defense potential.
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nimic said:
That would mean tanking the economy for a war you're not even involved in. No country would do that.
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It doesn’t mean that at all, if NATO countries were all willing to invest 1% of GDP in funding Ukraine the war could be won. There was a recent paper on this by the Estonian government.

The west is unprepared to do even this and Ukrainian will continue to get wrecked.
 
It's going to come and bite EU, cause Russia doesn't stop with Ukraine, they want a bigger piece of Europe than that.

At some point, there will be direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
 
Morty_ said:
It's going to come and bite EU, cause Russia doesn't stop with Ukraine, they want a bigger piece of Europe than that.

At some point, there will be direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
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Russia doesn't want a fight with NATO. They aren't stupid. In conventional warfare they'd get destroyed and they know it.

But a win in Ukraine would certainly embolden them to continue or escalate hybrid warfare tactics against the West.
 
foolsgold said:
It doesn’t mean that at all, if NATO countries were all willing to invest 1% of GDP in funding Ukraine the war could be won. There was a recent paper on this by the Estonian government.

The west is unprepared to do even this and Ukrainian will continue to get wrecked.
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1% of GDP does not equate nationalising industry and converting civilian industry to military production. That's something you only do if you're in a major war.
 
VorZakone said:
Russia doesn't want a fight with NATO. They aren't stupid. In conventional warfare they'd get destroyed and they know it.

But a win in Ukraine would certainly embolden them to continue or escalate hybrid warfare tactics against the West.
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An emboldened Russia could well be tempted into taking a piece of the Baltics, you think NATO, with its lack of comittment to Ukraine, would risk open war, possibly nuclear, over one of its smaller/lesser members? I'm not so sure they would.

At the minimum, they would take Moldova, and start trying to cause instability in Romania in some way.
 
Raoul said:
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Those losses are staggering. It’s amazing that there hasn’t been more revolt with how many people must have lost sons, fathers, brothers, friends, etc. Then again people probably don’t want the Prigozhin treatment.
 
Morty_ said:
It's going to come and bite EU, cause Russia doesn't stop with Ukraine, they want a bigger piece of Europe than that.

At some point, there will be direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.
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Yeah, no. On both accounts.

Russia doesn't have the military means for that and this myth needs to die. We're not talking about weak, third world countries one can easily bully and bomb back to the stone age, like the US usually does.

Ukraine's fate (NATO or in the russian influence sphere) was an open question since the fall of the Soviet Union. Russia considers it a Rubicon that the West should never cross and it won't let it slide, ever. That's why I'm highly skeptical of Ukraine joining NATO anytime soon. The Russians will never budge on that point, unless utterly defeated on the battlefield. Just like the US would never allow any country in their direct backyard forge an alliance treaty with a potential enemy or let them build military bases there (Monroe Doctrine).

Does it justify the invasion of Ukraine? Of course not, they're 100% in the wrong. However this blabbering about Russia trying to gobble up Ukraine and eyeing a piece of Western Europe is completely ridiculous. You can't conquer and occupy a country as big as Ukraine with just 300,000 soldiers, that's lunacy. They bet on a lightning victory to overthrow the current government and a put a puppet regime instead whilst grabbing some juicy territories along the way. And they massively failed. Yet people seriously think that Russia wants to pick up a fight with NATO? There's a limit to what propaganda can hammer in your brain.
 
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Morty_ said:
An emboldened Russia could well be tempted into taking a piece of the Baltics, you think NATO, with its lack of comittment to Ukraine, would risk open war, possibly nuclear, over one of its smaller/lesser members? I'm not so sure they would.

At the minimum, they would take Moldova, and start trying to cause instability in Romania in some way.
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The moment NATO refuses to defend one of its members is the moment it ceases to exist. Immediately.

I don't see how it's possible to look at what Russia has done and failed to do in Ukraine, a country which was considered a corrupt, failing mess - while Russia was considered to be maybe the premier fighting force by many - and conclude that actually they both want and could handle a fight with NATO.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Those losses are staggering. It’s amazing that there hasn’t been more revolt with how many people must have lost sons, fathers, brothers, friends, etc. Then again people probably don’t want the Prigozhin treatment.
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These are numbers from the Ukrainian High Command, so I'd take them with something akin to a feckton of salt. Just like the Russians'.
 
That_Bloke said:
These are numbers from the Ukrainian High Command, so I'd take them with something akin to a feckton of salt. Just like the Russians'.
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Oh good, point I thought it might have been the ones from British intelligence, which are also sometimes posted.
 
This stage of the war is ultimately over. Ukraine needs winged hussars but instead they are dragging untrained and unmotivated men onto the battlefield. They were doing that for months but finally it is being reported by non-Russian propaganda like NYT.

Now it is time to calibrate speaking points. Sorta hard to believe that Russia at the same time is collapsing, losing tremendous number of soldiers and equipment, and at the same time Putin is going to play Risk and roll the dice into a NATO country. But hey, he is a madman so anything can happen.
 
Lemoor said:
What the feck are you talking about?
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He's trying to justify Russian aggression.

Love the alleged aggressor part too. Occupied a 3rd of a country, bombing the rest daily, killing civilians in thousands, destroying their infrastructure, economy and practically everything = alleged aggressor.

Sounds legit.

But hey maybe Ukrainians are in fact Russians and its a Russian land anyway so Russia had to do it. Didnt want to but had to.
 
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The Firestarter said:
Wait, did I miss something? Weren't they already under full mobilisation after the initial invasion?
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This is a quote from the Deputy Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence Yegor Chernov from August:

There are four stages of mobilization in Ukraine. And the fourth one assumes that all men go to war. Now we are in the second stage of mobilization. But if the country is in danger and there is a real threat of losing its statehood, then everyone will go, as it was on February 24. I think it is the duty of every man to defend his own country. However, today we are not talking about this option
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https://visitukraine.today/blog/250...lization-in-ukraine-change-in-the-near-future
 
Yet even with our suffering, weariness, and struggles, Ukrainians are not willing to give up, to opt for “peace” at any price. Eighty percent of Ukrainians oppose making territorial concessions to Russia, according to a recent survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology.
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Simbo said:
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He's got a point. Despite the gloom and doom of the counteroffensive stalling and money potentially running out, the price Russia has had to pay appears far steeper in terms of people, weapons, and economic impact.
 
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