2024 U.S. Elections

The United said:
I am a bit desperate, wishing that it is a sign that the polls are largely B.S.
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It also means that Democrats can win the battle of the suburbs once more by showing that they are open to more moderate positions and more willing to provide solutions to current problems than the GOP is. Candidates who are either too extreme or endorsed by an extremist (Trump) will have a much harder time winning from now on.

Morty_ said:
Here is how this is bad news for democrats in November.
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Why? Republican candidates will mostly need Trump's seal of approval and thus will most likely be more extreme than soon-to-be-retired Republicans. That looks to be a recipe for another disaster for the GOP in the suburbs.
 
16 point swing since 2022 in last night’s election. Sure, Santos was partially due to that, but that is quite the percentage.
 
Hasn’t the dem vote been underreported in polling for the last few years, or am I clutching?
 
Adisa said:
Hasn’t the dem vote been underreported in polling for the last few years, or am I clutching?
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It looks that way. At least, many dems are hoping that it will be true for the presidential election.
 
Adisa said:
Hasn’t the dem vote been underreported in polling for the last few years, or am I clutching?
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If memory serves me right, as per comments in this forum the most prestigious polls usually were pretty close on elections with a acceptable degree of error. They never predicted the blue wave that seemed to be more about the media. So seems to be a disparity between serious polling and not serious ones/media spinning ideas
 
The bar for what's deemed acceptable is finding new lows
Arizona GOP introduces resolution to declare Trump 2024 winner regardless of the vote
Republicans in the Arizona House of Representatives have introduced a resolution that would seek to declare former President Donald Trump the winner of the 2024 presidential election — regardless of what the voters decide, reported KPNX's Brahm Resnik.


The resolution would not carry any force of law because it is not a bill, noted Resnik.

However, it is in response to rulings in Colorado and Maine disqualifying the former president from the ballot under the Insurrection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. It will be reviewed by the House Election Committee Wednesday.
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https://www.rawstory.com/trump-2024-arizona/
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
It also means that Democrats can win the battle of the suburbs once more by showing that they are open to more moderate positions and more willing to provide solutions to current problems than the GOP is. Candidates who are either too extreme or endorsed by an extremist (Trump) will have a much harder time winning from now on.



Why? Republican candidates will mostly need Trump's seal of approval and thus will most likely be more extreme than soon-to-be-retired Republicans. That looks to be a recipe for another disaster for the GOP in the suburbs.
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The Dems have had the edge in the suburbs for a while. 2022 was a very good example. What happened in New York State in 2022 was the exception. In that midterm election, the democrats won pretty much every important race in the key swing states, a lot thanks to their support in the suburbs. Nothing that happened in the past year indicates otherwise. The votes in Ohio, Kentucky and last night are further evidence of that.
 


Looks like a real race, but considering that Maryland is leaning 25-30 points for dems on the presidential level, winning a senate election as a republican shouldn't really happen, its roughly the equivalent of Beshear winning a senate seat in Kentucky.
 
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Morty_ said:


Looks like a real race, but considering that Maryland is leaning 25-30 points for dems on the presidential level, winning a senate election as a republican shouldn't really happen, its roughly the equivalent of Beshear winning a senate seat in Kentucky.
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I’m in Maryland, and generally like governor Hogan. However, I’ll vote for the democrat. We can’t afford losing this Senate seat.
 
The United said:
It looks that way. At least, many dems are hoping that it will be true for the presidential election.
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Wouldn't mind if the polls keep Trump in the lead. This will only motivate many potential non voters to come out and vote to ensure Trump won't make it.
If like in 2016 everybody thinks Hilary would win, these many of these voters will stay home as they believe the race is decided.

A high turn out will always favor Biden as Trump's base will vote for him whatever going to happen. It's a cult.
 
Beachryan said:
Hard for me to agree to something more than this: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/16/opinion/ezra-klein-biden-audio-essay.html

Says everything that needs to be said. Let us hope someone listens.
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Largely a good read, but I think he makes a leap when it comes to his idea about an open convention Democratic convention. His guess that the whole country would tune in and be excited by it, seems really myopic. It’s the kind of thing a Washington insider with politics brain thinks. In reality name recognition and public perception matters a ton to the “normal voter” and many of them won’t have a clue who Josh Shapiro is, for example.
I can understand the Democrat officials that are of the opinion that it’s too late now. Only a substitution for Harris would be safe in theory, but she is also not really visible or popular.
 
I mean, when even those writing the article says that open conventions are usually a disaster, you know it's a terrible idea.

Its not a viable option, you end up making a lot of people angry no matter who they would pick.

As the poster above me mentioned, name recognition matters, nobody knows who many of these other candidates are, so its not like it's a slam dunk to put someone else out there.
 
Morty_ said:
I mean, when even those writing the article says that open conventions are usually a disaster, you know it's a terrible idea.

Its not a viable option, you end up making a lot of people angry no matter who they would pick.

As the poster above me mentioned, name recognition matters, nobody knows who many of these other candidates are, so its not like it's a slam dunk to put someone else out there.
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It’s not ‘usually a disaster’, just specifically the last time for the Democrats it was (and there was the issue of a huge unpopular war that forced the incumbent to opt against running to begin with)

The bigger issue would be the current electioneering process doesn’t favour a convention, infrastructure and talent recruitment have to be done in advance and by having an open convention, you essentially leave it to the feckless DNC machine to support the winning candidate.
 
Rosendale already dropped out, guess Trump endorsing his primary opponent did him in.

Bad news for Tester that there isn't a long and hostile primary for republicans in Montana.
 
calodo2003 said:
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Saw that one, and while good news, won't be remotely close to the actual result.

Tester won by 3 points in a 8+ dem environment last time, not an environment that he will have this time.
 
Trump keeps losing court cases, now, not quite the same as being put in prison, but he should collapse in the polls now, otherwise i will take it as confirmation that all these people lying about not voting for a criminal.
 
Morty_ said:
Trump keeps losing court cases, now, not quite the same as being put in prison, but he should collapse in the polls now, otherwise i will take it as confirmation that all these people lying about not voting for a criminal.
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Not a chance. It won't move his base in the slightest. Firstly, many don't believe he's guilty, they believe he's being set up by Biden and the Deep State to get him off the ballot.

Secondly, most of them don't give a shit if he is guilty or not. Especially with the NYC bank fraud cases. They don't see it as a real crime as the money was paid back and nobody got hurt. A victimless crime is the usual response you see, followed by nobody ever gets done for it, despite the fact they do. They just haven't heard of it before.

Thirdly, Haley just said she would pardon Trump of any crimes (of those that she would have the power to do so) so his supporters again now believe even more that he's innocent because they can't understand why she would say that unless she believed he was innocent and the real victim in it all.

Honestly, his base twist themselves in to pretzels to find any excuse to defend him or to show his innocence or that it's a witch hunt. The only votes he will lose are independents and possibly a handful of Republicans. However with Biden doing himself no favours and potentially losing more of his voters and independents due to his stance and continued support of Israel and his lack of action against them or his failure to use his power against Netenyahu or with the UN.
 
langster said:
Not a chance. It won't move his base in the slightest. Firstly, many don't believe he's guilty, they believe he's being set up by Biden and the Deep State to get him off the ballot.

Secondly, most of them don't give a shit if he is guilty or not. Especially with the NYC bank fraud cases. They don't see it as a real crime as the money was paid back and nobody got hurt. A victimless crime is the usual response you see, followed by nobody ever gets done for it, despite the fact they do. They just haven't heard of it before.

Thirdly, Haley just said she would pardon Trump of any crimes (of those that she would have the power to do so) so his supporters again now believe even more that he's innocent because they can't understand why she would say that unless she believed he was innocent and the real victim in it all.

Honestly, his base twist themselves in to pretzels to find any excuse to defend him or to show his innocence or that it's a witch hunt. The only votes he will lose are independents and possibly a handful of Republicans. However with Biden doing himself no favours and potentially losing more of his voters and independents due to his stance and continued support of Israel and his lack of action against them or his failure to use his power against Netenyahu or with the UN.
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Well, all of this is exactly my thoughts.

The polls say Trump will collapse in the polls, whenever he is convicted of something, but i think that is all nonsense, personally.

Who are these people who are supporting him after everything that has happened, after everything that he has done, but will draw a red line over a prison sentence now?

They just say they won't support a convicted criminal, but if/once it happens, they will just rationalize it and say it was a deep state plot or something, it will barely even move the needle, in my opinion.

Biden might win the election, but Trump being in jail or not won't be the decider.
 
Morty_ said:
Trump keeps losing court cases, now, not quite the same as being put in prison, but he should collapse in the polls now, otherwise i will take it as confirmation that all these people lying about not voting for a criminal.
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Not a chance in hell.

There's already talks about the whole case being a conspiracy against him orchestrated by the Deep State. I think that the US are in for a nasty surprise if/when he loses the elections.
 
Morty_ said:
Well, all of this is exactly my thoughts.

The polls say Trump will collapse in the polls, whenever he is convicted of something, but i think that is all nonsense, personally.

Who are these people who are supporting him after everything that has happened, after everything that he has done, but will draw a red line over a prison sentence now?

They just say they won't support a convicted criminal, but if/once it happens, they will just rationalize it and say it was a deep state plot or something, it will barely even move the needle, in my opinion.

Biden might win the election, but Trump being in jail or not won't be the decider.
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What a lot of pundits are saying is that the polls might change once people that don't follow politics closely wake up to the fact that Trump is the nominee. This combined with his inevitable guilty verdicts could end up leading to a significant swing in the polls. I'm not really sure what I believe, but that seems to be the logic that many people follow, and I think there is some validity to it.
 
That_Bloke said:
Not a chance in hell.

There's already talks about the whole case being a conspiracy against him orchestrated by the Deep State. I think that the US are in for a nasty surprise if/when he loses the elections.
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They have started a gofundme for Trump to pay up his 355M lawsuit. It already has over 12000 donations.
There are so many people who think this is a conspiracy against the guy personally sent to earth by Jesus.
 
Laura Trump recently said that RNC money will go solely to Trump, and I believe she was made co-chair, they are also replacing a bunch of other members.

I guess there won't be any money for downballot then, republican candidates will have to rely on funding themselves, good for dems.
 
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