Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Rajma said:
IMO completely logical and obvious path going forward, one that US “deescalatory” admin wing couldn’t see coming because of their stupidity. Should have given Ukraine everything when they were asking at the beginning of the invasion, this would have been long finished.
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If anything pushes it through, this will.
 
VorZakone said:
@harms What's your prediction on things like this? Will we see increased mobilization or are you sceptical?

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Or, the question isn't will we see it, the question is when we'll see it.

The most realistic prediction is that we'll see it later this summer or in the early autumn like the last time. It probably won't happen in the upcoming months for the simple reason that there's a regular conscription campaign that starts at the 1st of April and finishes in the middle of June and the military bureaucracy likely doesn't have the capacity to process both things simultaneously.

That's the rational prediction though and these don't always work out in Russia, especially with the number of daily losses being that high.
 
harms said:
Or, the question isn't will we see it, the question is when we'll see it.

The most realistic prediction is that we'll see it later this summer or in the early autumn like the last time. It probably won't happen in the upcoming months for the simple reason that there's a regular conscription campaign that starts at the 1st of April and finishes in the middle of June and the military bureaucracy likely doesn't have the capacity to process both things simultaneously.

That's the rational prediction though and these don't always work out in Russia, especially with the number of daily losses being that high.
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If it does happen, would it be announced publicly or do you expect that it will be carried out in 'silence'?
 
VorZakone said:
If it does happen, would it be announced publicly or do you expect that it will be carried out in 'silence'?
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It won't be in silence since the silent mobilization is still, technically, happening. If they try to mobilize a 200-300k people it's going to be huge news, they'll have to say something.
 
harms said:
It won't be in silence since the silent mobilization is still, technically, happening. If they try to mobilize a 200-300k people it's going to be huge news, they'll have to say something.
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Alright, thanks.
 
Simbo said:
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It really seems to be a bit of a nuanced issue. Yes, crude oil price should be unaffected or even lower, if Russia can't process it anymore and has to sell it. Oil products however could become more expensive, as Russia was exporting quite a bit of (mostly) Diesel.

However about three weeks ago Russia reportedly issued a ban of exportinging refinery products, at least for the next half year, to fight the increasing prices. So if we see a price increase here, it originates in that ban and not in the recent attacks that started after the ban became active.

I would even go so far and suggest that this export ban could be a key reason why Ukraine started these attacks now - Russia admitted a weakness, and they saw a chance to really put the knife in there and twist it.
 
Raoul said:
Its a limited strategy in the end, since Putin can simply retaliate with sending more missiles into Kiev and the other big cities.
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He does that anyway, and has been for over 2 years.

Whenever they can, Ukraine should hit Russia's wallet, oil prices be damned.
 
VorZakone said:
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What I don't get is why if these missiles are in range of Polish air defences they don't intercept them. Is it in case they mistakenly shoot down a fighter or something? Or more because they might shoot down a Ukrainian AA missile or something?
 
TwoSheds said:
What I don't get is why if these missiles are in range of Polish air defences they don't intercept them. Is it in case they mistakenly shoot down a fighter or something? Or more because they might shoot down a Ukrainian AA missile or something?
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39 seconds is a very short period of time. If the cruise missile flew along the border it might not have been possible to shoot it down inside polish airspace within that time frame.
Both US and Polish fighter jets where scrambeled and if the missile would have kept on flying inside Polish airspace I'm sure they would have neutralized it.
 
the hea said:
39 seconds is a very short period of time. If the cruise missile flew along the border it might not have been possible to shoot it down inside polish airspace within that time frame.
Both US and Polish fighter jets where scrambeled and if the missile would have kept on flying inside Polish airspace I'm sure they would have neutralized it.
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And what about shooting it down pre-emptively on the Ukrainian side?
 
TwoSheds said:
And what about shooting it down pre-emptively on the Ukrainian side?
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Pretty sure this wasn't the first time a piece of Russian ordinance. There was at least another instance in 2023 and possibly something landing in Romania or nearby earlier.
 
The absolute horror the buzzing of these drones must instil I can't imagine. Knowing upon hearing one that someone is about to die and there's no escape, just hoping it ain't you.

 
tomaldinho1 said:
Front lines haven’t really moved in like a year now?
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Unless and until the Ukrainians have enough resources and guts to launch an air assault (think helicopter-airborne troops here) behind enemy lines to wreak proper havoc and open up corridors for the ground forces, we cannot expect a change any time soon.
 
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Another big missile attack on Dnipro region.

Obviously Russians are ready for peace talks, tons of evidence is supporting that.
 
Just seen BBC documentary Ukraine: Enemy in the woods

Harrowing. The horror of war filmed by Ukrainian soldiers defending a railway line. Unimaginable what these brave guys are having to go through.
 
Are there any major differences between Putin and the Nazis? Russians believe that he is only person capable of governing Russia, because he killed or jailed all the opposition. He lies all the time. He blames "the West" for a war he started. Ukraine did nothing to provoke Russia, as Poland did nothing in 1939 to provoke Germany.


 
I don't think we have a German politics thread. So I will post this here since it will also have repercussions on Ukraine.



Scholz is such a pussy.
 
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frostbite said:
Are there any major differences between Putin and the Nazis? Russians believe that he is only person capable of governing Russia, because he killed or jailed all the opposition. He lies all the time. He blames "the West" for a war he started. Ukraine did nothing to provoke Russia, as Poland did nothing in 1939 to provoke Germany.


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You ok bro ?
 
Expected.



I would personally be surprised if he gets anywhere near 150,000 conscripts in the 18-30 age range without enlisting women in the service.
 
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Jeez, this is a grim BBC doc. It follows a group of Ukrainian soldiers who defend a railway line.

 
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