Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Raoul said:
Yes. By taking over all of Ukraine, which was after all Putin's original goal. If he does that then Russia wins. If he doesn't do that then he loses since the Ukrainians won't stop fighting to reclaim their land.
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I dont see that happening as bleak as the situation looks at the moment.
 
Real Name said:
How will Russia win you reckon?
By occupying whole of Ukraine?
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Occupation of Ukraine is not, was not, and never will be one of the goals of what Putin calls his "special military operation". Russia will win by fulfilling the goals that were set out at the start of the war, and which have not at any point changed. And to answer the guy's question about how the West will spin the narrative: Blinken and Biden are already doing it. "Putin has already failed, because his plan was to take over the whole of Ukraine" (no, it wasn't). In other words: Putin has lost because he didn't achieve goals he never wanted to achieve. And Ukraine has won the war because even though they've been functionally destroyed and had a generation of men killed and they're now saddled with literally unpayable debt until the end of time...they're "sovereign!" The Russian flag does not fly over Lviv, like Putin wanted!
 
maniak said:
I guess that will be gist of the spin.
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Expect its not spin. Its reality. Had he succeeded in the beginning when he went after Kyiv, then he would've more than likely won the war. He was instead repelled and since then, its the Ukrainians who have made the more significant gains by reclaiming Kherson, all the while Putin has been forced to hang his hat on small towns like Bakhmut and Avdiivka; two places no one outside Ukraine had previously heard of. His only significant gain is Mariupol, but that was done at the beginning of the war. Since then, his only success (if you can call it that) is not conceding largely agrarian land in the south to Ukrainian counteroffensives.
 
Real Name said:
So they waged a war only to occupy a bit more of Donbas? If that's their goal and it is cause they changed it once they realized they wont go into Kiev then yeah they won it..
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I don't see how managing to occupy more land, destroy ukrainian hope of recovering it, managing to maintain a normal economy and showing the west as weak and unreliable is not a win for russia. Sure it cost them a lot but it's still a win.
 
Real Name said:
As for not using weapons inside Russia, werent targets inside Russia hit a number of times already?
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Yes, but by Ukrainian drones, not with US weapons, which are what are needed to take out Russian military bases that are getting ready to launch another invasion incursion.
 
DT12 said:
Occupation of Ukraine is not, was not, and never will be one of the goals of what Putin calls his "special military operation".
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Sure, totally it was never the goal. They just got lost when they tried to take Kyiv.
 
Raoul said:
Expect its not spin. Its reality. Had he succeeded in the beginning when he went after Kyiv, then he would've more than likely won the war. He was instead repelled and since then, its the Ukrainians who have made the more significant gains by reclaiming Kherson, all the while Putin has been forced to hang his hat on small towns like Bakhmut and Avdiivka; two places no one outside Ukraine had previously heard of. His only significant gain is Mariupol, but that was done at the beginning of the war. Since then, his only success (if you can call it that) is not conceding largely agrarian land in the south to Ukrainian counteroffensives.
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I won't bother because I don't have the time, but I'm sure if I search this thread I'll find plenty of posts (probably even yours) claiming this was an absolute blunder by russia and ukraine, with the help from the west, was going to reclaim all lost territory. There was a period where many claimed even crimea was back on the table.

Now it's "well they only won by a little bit" so yeah, fecking embarrassing by those ho vowed to protect ukraine and even claimed this was a war for democracy and western values.
 
DT12 said:
Occupation of Ukraine is not, was not, and never will be one of the goals of what Putin calls his "special military operation". Russia will win by fulfilling the goals that were set out at the start of the war, and which have not at any point changed. And to answer the guy's question about how the West will spin the narrative: Blinken and Biden are already doing it. "Putin has already failed, because his plan was to take over the whole of Ukraine" (no, it wasn't). In other words: Putin has lost because he didn't achieve goals he never wanted to achieve. And Ukraine has won the war because even though they've been functionally destroyed and had a generation of men killed and they're now saddled with literally unpayable debt until the end of time...they're "sovereign!" The Russian flag does not fly over Lviv, like Putin wanted!
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Sure mate. You keep repeating Russian propaganda lines and then you wonder why people react.
 
Raoul said:
Expect its not spin. Its reality. Had he succeeded in the beginning when he went after Kyiv, then he would've more than likely won the war. He was instead repelled and since then, its the Ukrainians who have made the more significant gains by reclaiming Kherson, all the while Putin has been forced to hang his hat on small towns like Bakhmut and Avdiivka; two places no one outside Ukraine had previously heard of. His only significant gain is Mariupol, but that was done at the beginning of the war. Since then, his only success (if you can call it that) is not conceding largely agrarian land in the south to Ukrainian counteroffensives.
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Ukraine is being irrevocably destroyed as a functional state with any kind of future, and it will never join NATO. What you imagine Putin's goals to be don't correspond with his endlessly repeated statements about what Russia's goals are in this war.
 
maniak said:
I won't bother because I don't have the time, but I'm sure if I search this thread I'll find plenty of posts (probably even yours) claiming this was an absolute blunder by russia and ukraine, with the help from the west, was going to reclaim all lost territory. There was a period where many claimed even crimea was back on the table.

Now it's "well they only won by a little bit" so yeah, fecking embarrassing by those ho vowed to protect ukraine and even claimed this was a war for democracy and western values.
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Nothing has changed in this regard. All of these places are still on the table. Until places like Odesa, Kharkiv, and Kyiv are all in Russian hands, the Ukrainians are doing just fine, especially now that they are armed to the gills again with western weapons.
 
Real Name said:
Sure mate. And you wonder why you're called a Russian bot here.
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Oh look, the "Russian bot" card has come out again. Never takes long. And for the record, I don't wonder why you call me that. It's the default mantra of those who are still, 28 months into this war, utterly clueless as to why it started.
 
DT12 said:
Ukraine is being irrevocably destroyed as a functional state with any kind of future, and it will never join NATO. What you imagine Putin's goals to be don't correspond with his endlessly repeated statements about what Russia's goals are in this war.
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It isn't being irrevocably destroyed given that a vast majority of the fighting isn't taking place in its largest cities, which spare the odd Russian missile attack, are still fully functional. They are also still getting their grain shipments out and continue to receive billions in western money. So until that stops, Putin will be stuck in a position of having to defend the land he currently holds. He has not made any significant gains in over two years at this point. In fact it was the Ukrainians that repelled him out of Kharkiv two years ago and then out of Kherson last year.
 
DT12 said:
Oh look, the "Russian bot" card has come out again. Never takes long. And for the record, I don't wonder why you call me that. It's the default mantra of those who are still, 28 months into this war, utterly clueless as to why it started.
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Did you ever consider that maybe if you stopped acting like a spin doctor for Putin it would stop? No, it must be everyone else that is wrong, obviously. Truly nobody can grasp your flawless vision.
 
Raoul said:
Nothing has changed in this regard. All of these places are still on the table. Until places like Odesa, Kharkiv, and Kyiv are all in Russian hands, the Ukrainians are doing just fine, especially now that they are armed to the gills again with western weapons.
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I guess I'll have to believe you instead of all reports coming from the ground by ukrainians themselves claiming they don't have the manpower or the military capacity to keep going for much longer and their being stretched very thin. I'm glad they're doing fine.
 
Lemoor said:
Sure, totally it was never the goal. They just got lost when they tried to take Kyiv.
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You don't "occupy" Ukraine with a column of tanks heading to Kiev and 180,000 troops coming over the border. That's how you attempt to make the Zelenskiy government flee. It didn't work. It was a major miscalculation. But the aim - to overthrow the Zelenskiy government - remains as one of the 4 goals of the war. "Occupation" of Ukraine is an absurd and literally impossible idea, do you even understand what that would entail?
 
maniak said:
I guess I'll have to believe you instead of all reports coming from the ground by ukrainians themselves claiming they don't have the manpower or the military capacity to keep going for much longer and their being stretched very thin. I'm glad they're doing fine.
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These reports have been intermittently coming in for well over a year in places like Bakhmut and elsewhere as a means to promote more western funding "Ukraine could lose if western money dries up" etc. They've been in a deficit for the past six months as Congress waivered on new funding and haven't lost any significant ground in the process. If they lose a major big city, then that would be significant. In the absence of that, we're still stuck in a largely frozen conflict where neither side are making significant gains.
 
maniak said:
I guess I'll have to believe you instead of all reports coming from the ground by ukrainians themselves claiming they don't have the manpower or the military capacity to keep going for much longer and their being stretched very thin. I'm glad they're doing fine.
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UPOD
 
DT12 said:
You don't "occupy" Ukraine with a column of tanks heading to Kiev and 180,000 troops coming over the border. That's how you attempt to make the Zelenskiy government flee. It didn't work. It was a major miscalculation. But the aim - to overthrow the Zelenskiy government - remains as one of the 4 goals of the war. "Occupation" of Ukraine is an absurd and literally impossible idea, do you even understand what that would entail?
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Yeah, I don't think so. Had Putin been successful in reaching Kyiv from the north in the early days of the war, he would've occupied Kyiv and installed his puppet Medvedchuk to lead a new pro-Russian regime there. He failed, which why he's now having to claim picking up a km or two here and there on the Donbas border as Russian wins.
 
maniak said:
I don't see how managing to occupy more land, destroy ukrainian hope of recovering it, managing to maintain a normal economy and showing the west as weak and unreliable is not a win for russia. Sure it cost them a lot but it's still a win.
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Shut down most public trading spaces, medicinal rationing, war economy, double digit interest rates, double digit inflation, huge debt growth.

"Normal Economy"
 
Raoul said:
These reports have been intermittently coming in for well over a year in places like Bakhmut and elsewhere as a means to promote more western funding "Ukraine could lose if western money dries up" etc. They've been in a deficit for the past six months as Congress waivered on new funding and haven't lost any significant ground in the process. If they lose a major big city, then that would be significant. In the absence of that, we're still stuck in a largely frozen conflict where neither side are making significant gains.
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I see you're not commenting on the "russia will be kicked out of ukraine" predictions and a frozen conflict is now somehow a win.
 
DT12 said:
You don't "occupy" Ukraine with a column of tanks heading to Kiev and 180,000 troops coming over the border. That's how you attempt to make the Zelenskiy government flee. It didn't work. It was a major miscalculation. But the aim - to overthrow the Zelenskiy government - remains as one of the 4 goals of the war. "Occupation" of Ukraine is an absurd and literally impossible idea, do you even understand what that would entail?
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So instead of occupation they would install their government in Kiev and let some small part of Ukraine to exist. All right, thats a big difference. I must correct you too, its not a war but a special militaty operation how Putin calls it. You're an expert on Russia goals after all.
 
This whole "Ukraine is in ruins" thing is nonsense.

What part of Ukraine is in ruins?

Mauripol and that's about it. Yeah, towns have been destroyed. Bakhmut, Severodonetsk etc aren't looking too good.

Great, this is basically the equivalent of Yeovil, Hastings and Coventry being blown up and claiming "UK is in absolute ruins"
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Shut down most public trading spaces, medicinal rationing, war economy, double digit interest rates, double digit inflation, huge debt growth.

"Normal Economy"
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When I google "economy of russia 2024" all the news reports seem pretty positive. Sure, wartime measures will hurt for a bit, but we had people predicting the complete collapse of their economy, it doesn't seem like it's happening any time soon.
 
Raoul said:
Yeah, I don't think so. Had Putin been successful in reaching Kyiv from the north in the early days of the war, he would've occupied Kyiv and installed his puppet Medvedchuk to lead a new pro-Russian regime there. He failed, which why he's now having to claim picking up a km or two here and there on the Donbas border as Russian wins.
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He isn't claiming them as "Russian wins". You are, because you keep thinking in terms of who is taking what town and village. Nobody at any level of actual power in the Russian government is claiming any of these 'gains' as a win, because they are focused only on the end result.

Anyway we're going in circles here so I'll bow out for a while.
 
maniak said:
I see you're not commenting on the "russia will be kicked out of ukraine" predictions and a frozen conflict is now somehow a win.
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In the present, a frozen conflict isn't a win for the Ukrainians. The war will continue until Putin is kicked out, whether sooner or later. They're not going to stop fighting until they get all of their territory back, whereas Putin is only doing this for neo-imperialist conquest that Russian doesn't need.
 
DT12 said:
He isn't claiming them as "Russian wins". You are, because you keep thinking in terms of who is taking what town and village. Nobody at any level of actual power in the Russian government is claiming any of these 'gains' as a win, because they are focused only on the end result.

Anyway we're going in circles here so I'll bow out for a while.
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Putin congratulates Russia troops, Wagner for ‘capturing Bakhmut’

Russia claimed victory in the battle for the strategic Ukrainian city of Bakhmut
 
DT12 said:
You don't "occupy" Ukraine with a column of tanks heading to Kiev and 180,000 troops coming over the border. That's how you attempt to make the Zelenskiy government flee. It didn't work. It was a major miscalculation. But the aim - to overthrow the Zelenskiy government - remains as one of the 4 goals of the war. "Occupation" of Ukraine is an absurd and literally impossible idea, do you even understand what that would entail?
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No, but it's very much something you do if your goal is the occupation of the entire country and not "just" of few regions and adding political pressure.
If this was never his aim, then why was he even attempting it? Even if that succeeded in making the government temporarily flee, what would stop Ukrainians from immidiately regaining it back since it is a "literally impossible idea" to occupy?
Cool, and when is that government overthrow happening? It is amusing how you probably broke a 100 posts complaining about Western lack of specific plans (because those apparently need to form a binary win condition) and we are yet to see any similar timetables for Putin's aims. Those apparently just need to happen... eventually and can easily change on the way, but obviously it's part of a massive master plan.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Which credible person predicted Russia will be kicked out of Ukraine in 2023?
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It's not about individuals, it's about the narrative that was created about the west being capable of defeating russia economically and help ukraine militarily to the point of victory. This was sold to people in all news channels for months and months after the war began. It created an expectation, so when eventually it doesn't happen, it will be sold by russia as a win. "Look, we are still in ukraine and our economy is growing, the west is just empty words" this is a diplomatic win, as the west will look weak and untrustworthy in most of the world.
 
maniak said:
When I google "economy of russia 2024" all the news reports seem pretty positive. Sure, wartime measures will hurt for a bit, but we had people predicting the complete collapse of their economy, it doesn't seem like it's happening any time soon.
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Rather than read news articles on mainstream media designed to cater to audiences that don't know anything beyond GDP per capita, look into in depth research by academics and such on the state of the Russian economy

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/703208

this is a good start
 
Raoul said:
In the present, a frozen conflict isn't a win for the Ukrainians. The war will continue until Putin is kicked out, whether sooner or later. They're not going to stop fighting until they get all of their territory back, whereas Putin is only doing this for neo-imperialist conquest that Russian doesn't need.
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How will the ukrainians keep doing it when all generals are complaining about the lack of manpower?
 
maniak said:
It's not about individuals, it's about the narrative that was created about the west being capable of defeating russia economically and help ukraine militarily to the point of victory. This was sold to people in all news channels for months and months after the war began. It created an expectation, so when eventually it doesn't happen, it will be sold by russia as a win. "Look, we are still in ukraine and our economy is growing, the west is just empty words" this is a diplomatic win, as the west will look weak and untrustworthy in most of the world.
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Maybe its your presumption that Russia isn't defeated on your self generated timeline of expectations that is the problem. For all you know, it could happen in a few years (or never at all). That's why they fight the wars.
 
maniak said:
It's not about individuals, it's about the narrative that was created about the west being capable of defeating russia economically and help ukraine militarily to the point of victory. This was sold to people in all news channels for months and months after the war began. It created an expectation, so when eventually it doesn't happen, it will be sold by russia as a win. "Look, we are still in ukraine and our economy is growing, the west is just empty words" this is a diplomatic win, as the west will look weak and untrustworthy in most of the world.
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At no point did anyone credible say this, or think this. Nobody.

You are now judging geopolitical expectation on media spin?
 
maniak said:
How will the ukrainians keep doing it when all generals are complaining about the lack of manpower?
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Its a country of 38m people, so they are not going to run out of fighters anytime soon. They will however run out of money and ammo unless they are regularly replinished.
 
Real Name said:
Tell this to @DT12
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I don't care about him, I think he's a shill for russian propaganda.

But I talk to many people and they all had this idea, by watching the news, that we - the west - were all in on helping ukraine and the sanctions were going to destroy russia's economy.

Now we see ukrainians desperate at the lack of manpower and weapons, while western countries hesitate at every corner about what weapons to send, when to send, etc. IMF reports russia's economy is growing.

Are people supposed to believe russia is losing?
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Rather than read news articles on mainstream media designed to cater to audiences that don't know anything beyond GDP per capita, look into in depth research by academics and such on the state of the Russian economy

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/703208

this is a good start
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AfonsoAlves said:
At no point did anyone credible say this, or think this. Nobody.

You are now judging geopolitical expectation on media spin?
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Mate, my first post in this conversation was about how this will be spinned in the west, so yeah, I'm looking at this from the point of view of mainstream media narratives and spin.
 
Raoul said:
Maybe its your presumption that Russia isn't defeated on your self generated timeline that is the problem. For all you know, it could happen in a few years (or never at all). That's why they fight the wars.
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Sure, ifs and buts, but I'm reading the news today. I see a lot of pessimism on the ukrainian side.
 
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