Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

DT12 said:
Oh look, the "Russian bot" card has come out again. Never takes long. And for the record, I don't wonder why you call me that. It's the default mantra of those who are still, 28 months into this war, utterly clueless as to why it started.
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It started because Russia invaded Ukraine and is committing atrocities there. Ukraine will never stop fighting.

As long as Ukraine is holding out, Putin is losing.
 
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Simbo said:
Might be some hopeful/bias twitter accounts skewing my view, but I have a feeling Ukraine has intentionally overplayed the "unpreparedness" of the Kharkiv border region.
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When Italy had a debt crisis a few years ago, and was negotiating its way out of that with the IMF, the head of that organisation deliberately stopped buying Italian debt while they talked. The interest rate went up steeply, and it effectively knocked the heads together of Italy’s leaders and the rest of the world. It was a ‘managed crisis’, with the aim of securing a focused and proportionate response by the world. I also think that that is what is happening here, and your hunch is correct. Don’t know why that popped into my mind, but it felt relevant.
 
Big news story here in Finland and elsewhere in the region today: Russia has announced that it will unilaterally move it's borders in the Baltic Sea.

According to Helsingin Sanomat, the Russian Defence Ministry argues that it believes that the current 1985 nautical charts are not fully accurate and do not reflect the "current geographical situation", and as a consequence, the maritime zones adopted by the Soviet Union some 40 years ago should in part be "invalidated".
 
the hea said:
Big news story here in Finland and elsewhere in the region today: Russia has announced that it will unilaterally move it's borders in the Baltic Sea.

According to Helsingin Sanomat, the Russian Defence Ministry argues that it believes that the current 1985 nautical charts are not fully accurate and do not reflect the "current geographical situation", and as a consequence, the maritime zones adopted by the Soviet Union some 40 years ago should in part be "invalidated".
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What's this supposed to mean in practice? What are these borders?
 
Russia intends to revise the areas along the Curonian Spit, Cape Taran and the Baltic Spit on its border with Lithuania.

The document on the revision of the borders was presented almost at the same time as Russia started tactical nuclear weapons exercises.
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Read a few articles but its unclear how much change is involved. But it seems like a clear sign that Russia is attempting to test NATO.
 
Bit late when you have lost a considerable amount of your fleets.

more empty threats.
 
VorZakone said:
What's this supposed to mean in practice? What are these borders?
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No one really knows as Russia didn't specify exactly how they want to change the borders. All information about it have been removed now from Russian government sites so maybe it was just a mistake or some kind of psychological warfare.
 
Kyonn said:
This is most likely bad news in the long run for Ukraine. They'll probably be replaced with competent officers.
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Competent officers requires a competent military-academic system that values high intelligence and lots and lots of studying. Such institutions don't really exist anymore in Russia.
 
AfonsoAlves said:
Competent officers requires a competent military-academic system that values high intelligence and lots and lots of studying. Such institutions don't really exist anymore in Russia.
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Maybe but the new ones will know better then to outright steal
 
The Firestarter said:
Everyone steals, and everyone knows that everyone steals. It's just when you become inconvenient or suspicious when it suddenly becomes an issue.
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Isn't the issue that they hampered Putin's war effort? Think that's the real crime and their replacements will know better.
 
Putin doesn't give a shit who is hampering his war efforts.

Serdyukov who was the former Russian minister of defense openly talked about how corrupt the Russian Army was and things actually really started improving under him...only for Putin to dislike him and replace him with Shoigu, a guy who has about as much military experience as Rishi Sunak.

Surovikin was probably the most competent field commander in the Russian Army (only in the South, under his command, did the Russians actually make very good progress in the initial days), and he's now under house arrest because he basically had a conversation with Prigozhin.

Gerasimov has had his wings clipped and now all of his deputies and chiefs are being arrested and fired.
 
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AfonsoAlves said:
Well, if that's the case Shoigu should be dead by now so...
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They're close personal friends though. And I'm sure he blamed the underlings. They (the underlings) get sent to the gulag and Shoigu gets reassigned.
 
the hea said:
S-400 intercepted all ATACMS missiles.
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Now that is quality footage, god damn. Almost wonder if its even worth it taking out these S-400, they seem so useless. Suppose they still stop enemy aircraft from flying high altitude.
 
VorZakone said:
If I recall correctly from a NYT piece some while ago, this is basically the same message.

Current frontlines are not the same as pre-invasion borders. For example, there are still parts of southern Ukraine occupied. These are post-invasion gained territories.

Interestingly the article notes that Putin wants to avoid a new round of mobilization.
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Here's a new UK MoD map...

 
One could perhaps make the argument that with weapons coming in from the multi-billion aid package and other coming developments such as F-16's and Ukraine intensifying its mobilization efforts, that Putin fears the momentum will shift against him again.
 
VorZakone said:
One could perhaps make the argument that with weapons coming in from the multi-billion aid package and other coming developments such as F-16's and Ukraine intensifying its mobilization efforts, that Putin fears the momentum will shift against him again.
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Its simply a matter of taking advantage of the Ukrainians being short on ammo while Congress dithered. The Russians would've been exceptionally incompetent to not attempt to exploit this in some way.
 
VorZakone said:
This summit takes place June 15-16.

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Cool, they'll sit down and all state the obvious, that the only way to achieve lasting peace is to kick Russia the fook out of Ukraine, then quickly get on with supplying everything needed to get the job done.

If only.
 
VorZakone said:
One could perhaps make the argument that with weapons coming in from the multi-billion aid package and other coming developments such as F-16's and Ukraine intensifying its mobilization efforts, that Putin fears the momentum will shift against him again.
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The word here from commentators I trust (I know, I know, everything I read is delusional propaganda) is that it's connected with the seizing of assets rather than mobilisation or new weapons (though that former is a factor). It's no longer a threat, the West is actively working on doing it from next month. What Putin and everyone among the Western hierarchs have in common is that seizing Russian assets is something neither side wants to happen, the West for obvious and exhaustively documented reasons and Putin for, oh let's call it, 'domestic considerations' (Mordashov's yacht is one thing, etc). Seizing the capital - not skimming the profit - would be the last of last resorts and would have irrevocable consequences for any future negotiations. It wouldn't surprise me if that article were mostly accurate in its details, insofar as Putin saying "We really don't want to go down that road, what about you?"
 
DT12 said:
The word here from commentators I trust (I know, I know, everything I read is delusional propaganda) is that it's connected with the seizing of assets rather than mobilisation or new weapons (though that former is a factor). It's no longer a threat, the West is actively working on doing it from next month. What Putin and everyone among the Western hierarchs have in common is that seizing Russian assets is something neither side wants to happen, the West for obvious and exhaustively documented reasons and Putin for, oh let's call it, 'domestic considerations' (Mordashov's yacht is one thing, etc). Seizing the capital - not skimming the profit - would be the last of last resorts and would have irrevocable consequences for any future negotiations. It wouldn't surprise me if that article were mostly accurate in its details, insofar as Putin saying "We really don't want to go down that road, what about you?"
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Ah, interesting angle.
 
All Putin wants is a couple of years of "peace", build up, and go for rest of Ukraine at a later date.

This is just something Putin says so the anti-west people can go "look, Putin actually wants peace, but the imperialist west rejected it".
 
Good read this.

A disturbing firsthand account of how a convicted drug dealer from Moscow went from prisoner to frontline soldier and now asylum seeker in France.

“I’d often hear stuff like – oh, what was I thinking, trading my lovely, comfortable cell for this pile of shit?” Andrei recalls. “Say you had another chance – a fairy comes down with a wave of her wand and whoosh! You’re back in your cell, with three extra years to serve, would you take it? Yes, yes! Anything – just get me out of here!”
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He acknowledges, reluctantly, that the Ukrainians are driven by the urge to defend their native land. “They are so stubborn, they hate us,” he says. “And we’re just fighting for the sake of it…that’s the life we fecking lead.”
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“All their stuff is cooler and better quality. We’ve got made-in-China; they’ve got made by NATO.” This applied to food and uniforms too, he says. He remembers spending his final days in the war zone in the trousers taken from a Ukrainian serviceman. All the Storm V fighters had blisters from the boots they were given, he says.
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https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/brutal-reality-of-life-russian-convict-fighter
 
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