2024 U.S. Elections

Walrus said:
I really feel like if the US elect Trump, Western European countries - especially the UK - need to seriously reassess our relationship with the US. If Trump gets in then it’s because a significant enough amount of voters actually endorse his politics and views, we can’t pretend it’s just a blip or a one off.

Whilst I am not saying that things should or will become actively adversarial with the US, Europe will need to become less reliant on them, especially for defence. It could also start to speed up the federalisation of the EU, as only a combined European entity will have the power and influence to stand up to the likes of China and the US (this is already my view - but Trump getting in could amplify and accelerate it all).
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I have always thought that at least in part the UK isn't in NATO to protect ourselves from an attack from other countries like Russia or China etc, it is in NATO to protect ourselves from an attack from the USA.

If the US leaves NATO the UK would have to think very carefully about whether to be part of a European defence force as the intelligence sharing/ bases/ wider Anglophone countries would also be put in a jam by an outright isolationist US.

Trump said all this last time and when in office he didn't go through with it. I expect the same thing would happen if he is re-elected.
 
Walrus said:
I really feel like if the US elect Trump, Western European countries - especially the UK - need to seriously reassess our relationship with the US. If Trump gets in then it’s because a significant enough amount of voters actually endorse his politics and views, we can’t pretend it’s just a blip or a one off.

Whilst I am not saying that things should or will become actively adversarial with the US, Europe will need to become less reliant on them, especially for defence. It could also start to speed up the federalisation of the EU, as only a combined European entity will have the power and influence to stand up to the likes of China and the US (this is already my view - but Trump getting in could amplify and accelerate it all).
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Europe should do that regardless of who is in the White House. For almost a century, the Europe has been acting like a colony of the US. EU in particular has the third largest economy in the world (almost the size of China), but they cannot defend themselves, they have stopped innovating and they basically have no soft party.

They are essentially a larger Japan.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
I have always thought that at least in part the UK isn't in NATO to protect ourselves from an attack from other countries like Russia or China etc, it is in NATO to protect ourselves from an attack from the USA.

If the US leaves NATO the UK would have to think very carefully about whether to be part of a European defence force as the intelligence sharing/ bases/ wider Anglophone countries would also be put in a jam by an outright isolationist US.

Trump said all this last time and when in office he didn't go through with it. I expect the same thing would happen if he is re-elected.
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I agree but we would probably have a referendum and judging by recent results we would definitely vote for the USA. I'm.jokikg (a little) I don't think I can see how we would ever not side with the US. Sadly Hugh Grant isn't our PM and none of our Politicians have the balls to go against the US.

As for the last point, I'm not so sure. He's so unpredictable and if he really is in Putin's pocket as much as has been suggested, then without a possibility of a 3rd term and if only to get back at other countries due to his petty grudge holding and ego, then I don't think you could count it out at all.
 
Revan said:
Europe should do that regardless of who is in the White House. For almost a century, the Europe has been acting like a colony of the US. EU in particular has the third largest economy in the world (almost the size of China), but they cannot defend themselves, they have stopped innovating and they basically have no soft party.

They are essentially a larger Japan.
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Interesting way of putting it, but very much agree with the sentiment.

Personally I think it's because Europe has moved too far left in the last decades, but swung back too much with a few elections in recent years.

As for Japan, they have the money and the technology to really step it up, which they plan to do in the coming years. Hopefully Trump loses and a Pacific version of NATO is formed.
 
All this is election talk. He is gonna do a U turn and back NATO with money and arms, but maybe without any of the traditional talk of support.
 
RedDevil@84 said:
All this is election talk. He is gonna do a U turn and back NATO with money and arms, but maybe without any of the traditional talk of support.
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Nah, he wanted to pull out of NATO in 2018 but was talked off the ledge by advisors. There ain't gonna be any objective advisors in his next potential term.
 
calodo2003 said:
Nah, he wanted to pull out of NATO in 2018 but was talked off the ledge by advisors. There ain't gonna be any objective advisors in his next potential term.
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Correct. There were sane people there last time. This time if he gets elected he will be surrounded by sychophants.
 
langster said:
I agree but we would probably have a referendum and judging by recent results we would definitely vote for the USA. I'm.jokikg (a little) I don't think I can see how we would ever not side with the US. Sadly Hugh Grant isn't our PM and none of our Politicians have the balls to go against the US.

As for the last point, I'm not so sure. He's so unpredictable and if he really is in Putin's pocket as much as has been suggested, then without a possibility of a 3rd term and if only to get back at other countries due to his petty grudge holding and ego, then I don't think you could count it out at all.
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Putin has something on him that Trump really doesn't want coming out, to me that's the only logical thing that makes any sense
 
The Brown Bull said:
Correct. There were sane people there last time. This time if he gets elected he will be surrounded by sychophants.
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So he'll nuke hurricanes, randomly withdraw all troops from Seoul, launch a nuke at N.Korea while pointlessly blaming China, and bomb Mexico?

These are all things he was stopped from doing.

Red in STL said:
Putin has something on him that Trump really doesn't want coming out, to me that's the only logical thing that makes any sense
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His staff, despite having no intelligence evidence towards it, believed so too.

calodo2003 said:
Nah, he wanted to pull out of NATO in 2018 but was talked off the ledge by advisors. There ain't gonna be any objective advisors in his next potential term.
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His orders were actually ignored last time, in the hopes he'd just forget and rant about something else for a while - like the water pressure.
 
calodo2003 said:
Nah, he wanted to pull out of NATO in 2018 but was talked off the ledge by advisors. There ain't gonna be any objective advisors in his next potential term.
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Can he pull out of nato without some kind of congressional approval?
 
maniak said:
Can he pull out of nato without some kind of congressional approval?
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No. A law that was drafted shortly into Biden's term, and was enacted in December, prohibits the president from doing that unilaterally. He would need a supermajority.

Edit:
He could refuse to command troops though. Which would be interesting if Congress declared war.
 
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Laurencio said:
No. A law that was drafted shortly into Biden's term, and was enacted in December, prohibits the president from doing that unilaterally. He would need a supermajority.
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What of the crazy things he suggested can he actually do by himself?
 
maniak said:
What of the crazy things he suggested can he actually do by himself?
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Refuse to send troops, order the withdrawal of all troops from Europe, block intelligence sharing, share intelligence with Russia, delay funding bills, change foreign policy towards individual member nations. There's a bunch he could do to dismantle NATO from within.
 
The special election to determine the person who will take George Santos' seat is today. I guess everything will depend on the turnout, but it looks like Tom Suozzi (D) is well positioned to reclaim his old seat. Suozzi previously retired from Congress in 2022 to run for the Democratic nomination for governor of New York against Kathy Hochul.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
The special election to determine the person who will take George Santos' seat is today. I guess everything will depend on the turnout, but it looks like Tom Suozzi (D) is well positioned to reclaim his old seat. Suozzi previously retired from Congress in 2022 to run for the Democratic nomination for governor of New York against Kathy Hochul.
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Interesting, that'll bring the majority down to 3 right? Crazy how tight it is.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
The special election to determine the person who will take George Santos' seat is today. I guess everything will depend on the turnout, but it looks like Tom Suozzi (D) is well positioned to reclaim his old seat. Suozzi previously retired from Congress in 2022 to run for the Democratic nomination for governor of New York against Kathy Hochul.
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Gonna be inclement weather all day with a few inches of snow. That favors Dems well.
 
What to Know About the Race to Replace George Santos
The special House election on Tuesday pits Mazi Pilip, a little-known Nassau County legislator running as a Republican, against Tom Suozzi, a former Democratic congressman. With polls tight, the contest is considered a tossup with unusually high stakes — for both the immediate balance of power in the House and November’s general elections.
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Forecasters say a half foot of snow could blanket the district overnight Monday into Election Day, scrambling both parties’ plans.

The storm will almost certainly depress turnout, but it is unclear if it will benefit one candidate more than the other.

In early and absentee voting, Democratic turnout had outpaced that of Republicans and independents and looked stronger than in other recent elections, according to partisan turnout data. That presumed Democratic edge could prove more durable if the number of anticipated votes on Tuesday shrinks.
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I would never wait for election day voting again as long as I can help it for this reason. If you are allowed to early vote it is far better to go get it over with in the early voting period when you have more time to avoid weather, lines, last minute emergencies.
 
Hamnat said:
What to Know About the Race to Replace George Santos


I would never wait for election day voting again as long as I can help it for this reason. If you are allowed to early vote it is far better to go get it over with in the early voting period when you have more time to avoid weather, lines, last minute emergencies.
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Same in elections taking place in my hometown (federal, provincial or municipal). I always take the early vote whenever available, especially when electoral authorities spare a weekend just for that.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Same in elections taking place in my hometown (federal, provincial or municipal). I always take the early vote whenever available, especially when electoral authorities spare a weekend just for that.
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Common sense says so, but apparently Republicans tend to prefer to vote on the day, no idea why though
 
Sweet Square said:
Whoops!

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Yeah there is absolutely zero surprise about that. They only want to solve problems when they re in charge (or rather- pretend to) while at the same time employing tons of immigrants at farms, hotels etc nationwide. I'm sure if they come up with a border deal of their own it magically has a bunch of exemptions and financial benefits for the few. Dems are terrible at the psy ops game maga operatives are playing at and always have been.
 
Redplane said:
Yeah there is absolutely zero surprise about that. They only want to solve problems when they re in charge (or rather- pretend to) while at the same time employing tons of immigrants at farms, hotels etc nationwide. I'm sure if they come up with a border deal of their own it magically has a bunch of exemptions and financial benefits for the few.
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Oh they won't lift a finger to solve the problem as they need it for a talking point to rile up their base.
 
Was on a ski trip last week with a random group. Usual type of people on these trips are rational working professionals who tend to give a shit about the world and others, so talking politics is never normally an issue. We had an American guy round the table one night though... Nice guy, well travelled stock broker type. Got onto the topic of immigration and he tells us how there's 24 million illegals entering the US via the Southern border each year. I check I didn't mishear him, I didn't, 24 million, per year. They the cause of high house prices because the Dems give them housing all over the US apparently, Dems want to let in as many as possible to get votes (?), they are the win at all costs party, etc. He honestly didn't seem the type to be braindead, I'm just not used to it mostly talking to Europeans.

The brainwashing apparatus at work in the US really must be something else. We know how good it was in 2016, I dread to think how much better at it they've got since then.
 
Simbo said:
Was on a ski trip last week with a random group. Usual type of people on these trips are rational working professionals who tend to give a shit about the world and others, so talking politics is never normally an issue. We had an American guy round the table one night though... Nice guy, well travelled stock broker type. Got onto the topic of immigration and he tells us how there's 24 million illegals entering the US via the Southern border each year. I check I didn't mishear him, I didn't, 24 million, per year. They the cause of high house prices because the Dems give them housing all over the US apparently, Dems want to let in as many as possible to get votes (?), they are the win at all costs party, etc. He honestly didn't seem the type to be braindead, I'm just not used to it mostly talking to Europeans.

The brainwashing apparatus at work in the US really must be something else. We know how good it was in 2016, I dread to think how much better at it they've got since then.
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24 million? You should have asked him to do the math. If he can't see the absolute planet sized logical fallacy in that number he probably is not someone who should be handling other peoples money.
 
WI_Red said:
24 million? You should have asked him to do the math. If he can't see the absolute planet sized logical fallacy in that number he probably is not someone who should be handling other peoples money.
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He probably needs to see an eye doctor, that 24 was likely 2.4!
 
I wonder how people will analyze this with the polls, if at all. Most of the polls gave Suozzi a +4 until the last one from the NY Post, when it was a +1 for Suozzi.
 
The United said:
I wonder how people will analyze this with the polls, if at all. Most of the polls gave Suozzi a +4 until the last one from the NY Post, when it was a +1 for Suozzi.
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Reckon the polling had it being close with certain group of voters, when that isn't the case in actual reality.

Just a guess from me though.
 
Morty_ said:
Reckon the polling had it being close with certain group of voters, when that isn't the case in actual reality.

Just a guess from me though.
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I think there were some noises from some main stream media that Suozzi was having trouble, and it was not a sure seat for Dem, etc., a couple of weeks ago.
 
The United said:
I think there were some noises from some main stream media that Suozzi was having trouble, and it was not a sure seat for Dem, etc., a couple of weeks ago.
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I will wait for the final numbers, but nearly 11 points ahead is a very healthy lead and the sign of a solid campaign by Suozzi.
 
Even this morning they were talking about close race. And polling within margin of error. This is not close. Nice win and he will be incumbent when he runs again in November for full term
 
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