Yes pretty much, he has gone down in my estimation somewhat
Alex Salmond and Independence
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Yes pretty much, he has gone down in my estimation somewhat
It's interesting how the SNP case for an independent Scotland joining the EU (or continue to be a part of it), using another nations currency and asking its bank to be the lender of last resort for its debts, all comes down to the fact they've written it on a piece of paper.
Yes never mind negotiations or wants of other parties, no everyone must relent to Scotland's demands because it's printed in the report they made. If you don't you're a bully.
Yes never mind negotiations or wants of other parties, no everyone must relent to Scotland's demands because it's printed in the report they made. If you don't you're a bully.
I've just watched the minister for Europe give evidence to the select committee on the referendum for Scottish independence. The SNP have massively underestimated the difficulty in gaining accession to the EU and the consequences and length of time they will be outside after leaving the UK. There is little the UK govt can do to help them either so at least we can't be accused of bullying.
They can't apply until they are a separate nation.
They have to use article 49 for accession.
It took Croatia six years.
All current UK derogations and exceptions will be lost.
It takes unanimity of all 28 countries on all aspects of entry.
Major impacts,
CAP farm subsidy payments end until Scotland rejoins,
Scotland won't be allowed to keep the pound even if the UK allowed it.
VAT on food books and new homes and increased VAT on fuel.
Structural regional payments end.
RUK students will have to be given the same terms as EU students.
Scotland’s share of UK rebate lost.
Even if Scotland accepts all these changes they could still be blocked from entry because if even one country fears setting a precedent on separation they can just refuse. All these issues are contentious because new entrants have been denied restricted or have been forced to accept diminished terms on entry in the past. So for instance how does Scotland negotiate full CAP payments for their farmers when they need Eastern EU countries to agree to this while not getting the payments themselves?
The SNP say it will all be taken care of in 18 months, I'm not sure if they are actually lying or they just don't understand what they are talking about. I wouldn't count on being in the EU any time soon if I was voting yes and the rest of the EU will probably exact a huge price from Scotland for getting in if they ever make it in.
The whole thing is unravelling. You only need to look at how the SNP are running the campaign. Facts, details, realities all airbrushed from the scene. Instead the Scottish people are asked to choose between two meaningless, abstract opposites of 'hope or fear', with the insinuation being that those who pay attention to the real world are spoil sports, scaremongers and bullies.
It's just a last hurrah for Alex Salmond who turns 60 this year and is presented with his one, last and only chance to do this. The vote isn't being held in 2014 because Scotland is ready or because it makes sense or because everything is in place. It's being held in 2014 because it's the last chance Alex Salmond has.
I think the SNP's economic policy is flawed to say the least, it rests on one thing and that is continued oil revenue. The problem with that is that it's not sustainable in the long term, we don't really know how long it's going to last. Ten years ago investment in the North Sea oil fields was dwindling, and it looked like the writing was on the wall, new technology and a higher oil price has meant it's become economically viable to extract the oil, and companies have invested £billions in the North Sea basin. Look forward twenty years and it's difficult to see where we will be, whether the North Sea basin is exhausted or not, there will be competition for that investment by other oil producing geographies. You could say this is an issue for all oil producing / dependent countries, and it is to some extent, however the wiser countries do something for the long term with the oil money, take Norway for example, and it's oil funded sovereign wealth fund, $800bn+ for 5 million people, and set to continue to expand, the debate they have is whether to spend more money on the population now, or continue to invest so heavily for the future. The Arab states generally are investing in all sorts of other assets globally to ensure income after the oil has dried up. The UK is different in that oil revenue is a much lower proportion of overall revenue for the government, yet if you looked at this for Scotland alone it's a huge proportion.
I can see why Whitehall want to cling to Scotland in the short term, it's difficult to plug a 16% hole in your coffers.
I can see why Whitehall want to cling to Scotland in the short term, it's difficult to plug a 16% hole in your coffers.
Interesting post. I knew it wasn't going to be straightforward, but I didn't realise joining the EU was quite so onerous. The loss of all of those payments would cripple Scotland you'd think. I'm assuming it would take them some time to be able to access the bond market.
Was it just the Europe minister or did they have a pro-independence person on too?
Hasn't Spain already said it would block Scotland's entry, because they don't want to set a precedent that might be invoked by Catalunia and the Basque Country?
It was the minister for Europe and Foreign office David Lidington(?) tetimony from 9/4 if memory serves.
He was called to the select committee to answer questions about the referendum and in particular what the UK govts legal advice and analysis of assumptions about EU issues raised in the Nationalists white paper on the process of Independence.
While I understand that it would be in his /the Govt interest to make it look really problematic for Scotland post as yes vote, so you have to factor that in to the testimony, I was convinced by the detail which rings true and seems to me obvious when you consider the way the EU works. There are some inescapable points which are clearly being skirted around in the white paper. Running through the whole thing is an assumption that everyone will drop all their issues to focus on getting Scotland into the EU but in fact the opposite will most likely happen. Everyone will use the application for their own self interests to open parts of the EU budget which runs to 2020 (I think) and to try and renegotiate previous accession settlements.
It is his view that the UK and a newly independent Scotland would have to come to an agreement before Scotland could apply to join because issues like border controls and currency will be major problems for Scotland getting into the EU as the UK's terms are not ones which are likely to be on offer to a new applicant. Sharing of the UK rebate which Salmond says can be negotiated between the UK and Scotland is in fact impossible because of the mechanism which calculates it. The UK can't share it even if it wanted to and why would it any way?
I don't think they have said that directly but I may be mistaken, it doesn't take a massive jump to understand how reticent they would be to clear an easy path to Scottish membership as separatists would jump on it as a precedent. What would Scotland be able to give Spain in return for not blocking them? That is where the SNP fall short because you have to be an idiot to think they won't ask for something in return.
http://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A7x9QXriJlRTvyUADfdLBQx.;_ylu=X3oDMTE1NWZtdGR1BHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDNwRjb2xvA2lyZAR2dGlkA1NNRVVLMjFfODc-/RV=2/RE=1398052707/RO=10/RU=http://news.stv.tv/politics/272267-poll-suggests-swing-of-just-over-two-per-cent-needed-for-yes-win//RK=0/RS=pOypKZ4ppaJKEqmt.74u2lTvcig-
I said on Monday you could feel a change, just listening to people being interviewed and on phone-ins and the like.
Plenty of twists and turn yet no doubt.
I said on Monday you could feel a change, just listening to people being interviewed and on phone-ins and the like.
Plenty of twists and turn yet no doubt.
How much will motivation come into it? Because I would assume that the yes vote would be more motivated to turn out given they're the ones voting for change, rather than keeping the status quo.
And if turnout is say, only 50% but the yes vote takes it by small margin, will it cast enough doubt over the referendum for it not to actually be implemented?
And if turnout is say, only 50% but the yes vote takes it by small margin, will it cast enough doubt over the referendum for it not to actually be implemented?
If it's over 50% vote, it'll happen. Not giving independence when there's a majority would essentially turn lots of people to Yes, ensuring that there'd be a Yes vote if there was another referendum. It'd be a bad move from Westminster not to implement it if there was a Yes vote.
In the 1979 referendum on Scotland having a devolved parliament there was such a clause.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_devolution_referendum,_1979#.2240.25.22_rule
So if there is no clause this time I think it would have to stand. That said I think a high turnout is certain.
It would be a bit of a shit situation if there was a very narrow majority for either side.
Somewhere in the recesses I'm thinking that in the eighties or so independence calls had a big knock-back when the Shetland and Orkney people said they'd rather be independent themselves than go in with Scotland. Or even join with Norway. Something like that would bring hammer the Yes vote, I would have thought.
Somewhere in the recesses I'm thinking that in the eighties or so independence calls had a big knock-back when the Shetland and Orkney people said they'd rather be independent themselves than go in with Scotland. Or even join with Norway. Something like that would bring hammer the Yes vote, I would have thought.
Galloway has gone down in your estimation? How much further can a man go than rock bottom?
Not a fan of Galloway then?
Sunday Herald says Yes. Long way to go, but the momentum is that way.
The most detestable person in British politics in my eyes.
Things looking rosier for Salmond if the latest opinion polls are to be believed.
What currency are the Scots going to use ?
Have they given it any thought yet ?
I can't believe the referendum is in just 100 days and nothing is sorted yet.
Have they given it any thought yet ?
I can't believe the referendum is in just 100 days and nothing is sorted yet.
Just had a thorough read of this - I am in Scotland at the min as my partner is Scottish and we are visiting her folks. They are YES voters and the feeling seems to be that it will end up being a yes win (my missus is a no voter, but can't vote as she lives with me down in England).
My feelings from being up here are that people are voting yes for the wrong reasons - namely the whole patriotic/nationalistic side of things rather than actually considering the implications.
Saw a debate on STV this evening where they had a yes and a no supporter - the yes woman just spend the entire time attacking Cameron/No supporters, without really offering any actual insight on the matter.
As a Brit I like the whole idea of the UK, I feel that we are all better off together, especially the Scots. However if they choose to go it alone, that's their call although in my opinion is a very poor call, and I will be intrigued/amused to see the consequences.
Also my missus got 6 years of free university education which still irks me. Good luck to old Salmond and co. keeping that sort of thing going without Westminsters support.
There are issues like the sub base I hadn't even considered until reading this thread though, surely as the ones breaking the status quo, the Scots should be liable for the majority of expenses/costs incurred by their actions?
Interesting times.
My feelings from being up here are that people are voting yes for the wrong reasons - namely the whole patriotic/nationalistic side of things rather than actually considering the implications.
Saw a debate on STV this evening where they had a yes and a no supporter - the yes woman just spend the entire time attacking Cameron/No supporters, without really offering any actual insight on the matter.
As a Brit I like the whole idea of the UK, I feel that we are all better off together, especially the Scots. However if they choose to go it alone, that's their call although in my opinion is a very poor call, and I will be intrigued/amused to see the consequences.
Also my missus got 6 years of free university education which still irks me. Good luck to old Salmond and co. keeping that sort of thing going without Westminsters support.
There are issues like the sub base I hadn't even considered until reading this thread though, surely as the ones breaking the status quo, the Scots should be liable for the majority of expenses/costs incurred by their actions?
Interesting times.
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Any Scots on here know the situation if you won't be in Scotland on voting day? I'm studying in Holland from August to January and I'm not sure if I'd class as eligible to vote.
Assuming Alex Salmond is a reasonably intelligent chap, surely he must see that the yes vote has more holes than answers. Getting EU recognition is vital but aside from the vetos available, Scotland have so many areas to think of, I mean what will it do for defense! Currency is obviously an issue and presumably it will have to be pegged to the euro or sterling so so much for fiscal independence. It seems the yes is backed by North Sea oil and Gas, that's the North Sea which has almost all obtainable reserves depleted with the remaining being too expensive to extract.... The main growth in north seas is decommissioning!!
It seems like a game of brinkmanship, Salmond will take this as far as he can, and extract maximum concession from government, Scotland will get virtual independence plus all the benefits of Union. I hope I'm right atleast, otherwise Scotland may get pretty messy pretty fast.
It seems like a game of brinkmanship, Salmond will take this as far as he can, and extract maximum concession from government, Scotland will get virtual independence plus all the benefits of Union. I hope I'm right atleast, otherwise Scotland may get pretty messy pretty fast.
Salmond is a complete lightweight, soundbite merchant who doesn't appear to have credible answers to currency, EU, long-term issues.
I would suspect Spain and possibly Italy will put the blocks on. Considering they are both facing succession movements of there own. They can't be seen to back Scotland whilst trying to prevent Basque/Catalonia/Veneto independence.
Even if they do vote yes and do secede from the Union, so to speak, there will clearly still be a strong close connection to rUK. Things like defence will still more than likely be covered by the MoD, but the currency/economy issue is HUGE and there's no obvious solution to it right now that could really work. I'd be worried if I were Scottish that Salmond is a chancer who has no clue about the actual running of a country, and the whole strategy of the yes campaign seems to be the political equivalent of making everyone watch Braveheart and shout 'Scotland' 3 times to themselves in the mirror every morning.
I think immediately after the referendum in the case of a 'yes' vote there will be an appetite form Westminster to 'punish' Scotland in order to facilitate a hasty return to the UK. It won't be in the UK's long-term economic interest to have an economically struggling neighbour but I do think that Westminster wont make it easy for a new Scotland in terms of cooperation and support in matters of transitional infrastructure as Scotland moves to establish government departments and systems. I really can see the UK government doing that thing parents do when their kids protest their independence "Well if you want to do it all yourself, you can do your own washing now."
I'm not saying it's right but I think there will be hope, at least in the short term, that if things are difficult for Scotland after the referendum there could be a clamour for a vote within the next 5-10 years to re-join
I'm not saying it's right but I think there will be hope, at least in the short term, that if things are difficult for Scotland after the referendum there could be a clamour for a vote within the next 5-10 years to re-join
@Plugsy If that happened the rest of the UK would have to be given a vote on whether to invite them back, surely.
In terms of making kids do their own washing (as a metaphor as well as literally) that would seem like an entirely rational thing to do, I wouldnt see it as a punishment. Kids have to learn independence comes with responsibility. I dont see why England (et al) should bend over backwards to make life easier for Scotland if it decides to go it alone, the whole point of going it alone is that... well, youre alone. Obviously there is a fine line between that and being obtrusive. I guess the metaphor is a pertinent one in that respect: there is a difference between making a kid do his own washing or pay a bit of rent, and throwing them out into the street.
FWIW I hope and expect Westminster to be cognisant of that distinction and to be careful not to undermine an independent Scotland, because I dont think there would be any going back on it. But then I am no expert on this so perhaps I am wrong.
In terms of making kids do their own washing (as a metaphor as well as literally) that would seem like an entirely rational thing to do, I wouldnt see it as a punishment. Kids have to learn independence comes with responsibility. I dont see why England (et al) should bend over backwards to make life easier for Scotland if it decides to go it alone, the whole point of going it alone is that... well, youre alone. Obviously there is a fine line between that and being obtrusive. I guess the metaphor is a pertinent one in that respect: there is a difference between making a kid do his own washing or pay a bit of rent, and throwing them out into the street.
FWIW I hope and expect Westminster to be cognisant of that distinction and to be careful not to undermine an independent Scotland, because I dont think there would be any going back on it. But then I am no expert on this so perhaps I am wrong.
Nonsense, of course rUK should make efforts to ensure Scotland would be a success, just not to the detriment of its own economy/situation. It's important to keep neighbours friendly no matter who you are. That's why the economy is such an issue - rUK could pick up the slack in most areas at least until Scotland gets on its feet, but the economy has no clear and obvious solution.
I don't think there will be the rUK governement will do what it always does and just do it through Act of Parliament. Scotland will have a referendum because it'll be politically necessary. I don't think it's an issue the rest of the UK will be that politically charged about being denied a vote. It'll be one of those "this is an outrage, ooh look hour-long Eastenders" things
The Government does not have to, if you want to go it alone, do so. Don't expect the subsidies that you get currently.
An independent Scotland won't be our neighbour they will be more like our ex wife living in part of what used to be our house. Like War of the Roses. I suspect the separation is going to be a traumatic and lowering experience for both parties.
How's the old Scotland Independence debate going ?
Do you reckon more people will vote YES on the back of a successful Commonwealth Games ?
Do you reckon more people will vote YES on the back of a successful Commonwealth Games ?
Might seem a sill question, but what the hell does rUK mean?
Don't know
The Queen plastered all over Celtic park and God Save the Queen sang at Celtic park. Interesting.
I would happily allow Scotland independence after that embarrassing opening ceremony.
And now 'God Save The Queen' at Celtic Park
And now 'God Save The Queen' at Celtic Park
No doubt this was political.
I would happily allow Scotland independence after that embarrassing opening ceremony.
And now 'God Save The Queen' at Celtic Park
London 2012 was hardly magnificent but yeah this has been terrible from us.
I can tell you certainly that Glasgow isn't like that in the slightest.Eh? It was brilliant.London 2012 was hardly magnificent but yeah this has been terrible from us.