Alex Salmond and Independence

[ThierryHenry]

I'm trying to figure out why Betfair has a yes vote at 3.20, no at 1.45, when the polls are fairly even. Can anyone shed some light on that? Should I be backing a yes vote for value here?

People have been betting on this for a long time - the bookies currently stand to have a big payout on a yes vote and lose money on a no, so the odds on a no vote are being kept low. The odds reflect the bookies' liabilities more than anything else.

Though you could argue long term confidence in the no vote means a lot, the validity of the current polls will be unclear until results come in.

 

[Cheesy]

What i hate being English is why we have to bend over backwards for the union, we have to be politically correct all the time. English tax payers get less even though we pay more, we can't be patriotic and if we do ie:- England songs playing during World Cups on the radio, Scottish/Welsh/Irish phone up complaining - England don't even have a national anthem, we use the British one when England play, we don't even have an English government.

I say when do we English get a vote on Independence?

You want one? Go ahead and have one. Hell, create your own English independence party.

Compare the number of governments England have affected in general elections compared to Scotland, Wakes and Northern Ireland. See who's got the most.

 

[Pink Moon]

What i hate being English is why we have to bend over backwards for the union, we have to be politically correct all the time. English tax payers get less even though we pay more, we can't be patriotic and if we do ie:- England songs playing during World Cups on the radio, Scottish/Welsh/Irish phone up complaining - England don't even have a national anthem, we use the British one when England play, we don't even have an English government.

I say when do we English get a vote on Independence?

Yeah, you have to bend over backwards and be politically correct...

Spoiler

You'll get your vote for independence when the North Sea oil runs out. Make no mistake.

Absolutely no one stops England from being patriotic, by the way.

Seeing as how you feel so hard done by, can you answer me why it's deemed too much of a risk to keep nuclear weapons in Portsmouth or Plymouth but it's okay to keep them just down the road from Scotland's largest city?

 

[Pink Moon]

You want one? Go ahead and have one. Hell, create your own English independence party.

Compare the number of governments England have affected in general elections compared to Scotland, Wakes and Northern Ireland. See who's got the most.

Exactly. Yet they don't have their own government? They get the government they vote for every single time. We don't have that luxury. We too get whatever government England votes for.

 

[Cheesy]

People have been betting on this for a long time - the bookies currently stand to have a big payout on a yes vote and lose money on a no, so the odds on a no vote are being kept low. The odds reflect the bookies' liabilities more than anything else.

Though you could argue long term confidence in the no vote means a lot, the validity of the current polls will be unclear until results come in.

Yeah, this is it for the most part. As well as this, there were a couple of massive bets placed on No by punters (6 figure ones) which increase that pay-out difference.

Also, I'm not sure if it's the case but the odds will be ones that English people who can't vote have bet on too, isn't it? Not sure if that's the case, but if it is then they'll obviously be putting a lot more money on no.

 

[Tarrou]

Odds go where the money is and aim to make a profit for the bookmaker. They're not objective "facts" on the ground - polls are more objective than that.

Odds can be used as very rough approximations to true probabilities, but nothing more.

People have been betting on this for a long time - the bookies currently stand to have a big payout on a yes vote and lose money on a no, so the odds on a no vote are being kept low. The odds reflect the bookies' liabilities more than anything else.

Though you could argue long term confidence in the no vote means a lot, the validity of the current polls will be unclear until results come in.

Betfair doesn't quite work the same as regular bookies. The odds are market driven and don't reflect the bookies liabilities, because they have none. When you place a bet you are only betting against another punter who has bet the opposite.

It's interesting that there is a big discrepancy between the betfair price and current opinion polls. I definitely trust betfair to be more accurate than opinion polls in the UK, but the difference in price is still appealing to me, so I think I'll have a wee flutter on 'YES'. If the odds were 50/50, I'd definitely back 'NO' if I had to bet.

 

[Cheesy]

Exactly. Yet they don't have their own government? They get the government they vote for every single time. We don't have that luxury. We too get whatever government England votes for.

True. The comments about England being incredibly hard done by in the union are nonsense as well. If that was truly the case, Cameron could've sold that as the case, advocated Scotland leaving and gained support for ridding themselves of a burden. That's obviously not true, though, and we contribute a fair bit to the UK.

 

[711]

That depends on whether RUK decides to let them or not. If the deal being laid out by the SNP became the terms of separation and if these measures were forced on RUK then I would expect Scotland to be black balled from entry until the RUK is satisfied.

I can see that could happen, but if there is a yes vote then I would expect both sides to sit down and work out the practicalities. Others have pointed out that it would be in neither country's interest if the debt responsibility was not clearly laid out. There would be no need for public posturing after a vote, there would be a need from both nation's point of view to come to agreement.

 

[Man Utd Mrs]

When we went to Mull a few weeks ago, lots of the people we spoke to were English - and they lived there and owned property and businesses. We were surprised at how many non-Scottish people there were. They included the owner of the house we were renting and the one next to it, the postman, all the shopkeepers I spoke to (actually, one was French) and a farmer I met.

I believe Sir Paul McCartney owns an enormous amount of land on Mull, too?

I had a schoolfriend that lived on the next farm to McCartney on Mull. She said he was always having barbeques etc for the locals and no one treated him like a pop star.

 

[Man Utd Mrs]

This was another area I wanted to bring up but I haven't really got enough knowledge. However I have seen articles claiming that up to 75% of the North Sea Oil could be seen as belonging to the islanders rather than the Scottish mainland.
More interestingly however would be the political ramifications if the islands DID demand more powers or even independence - it would be utterly hypocritical for any Scottish politician to deny these requests after potentially securing and lobbying for their own independence.

Yes, that interests me too !

 

[NoWinNoFee]

I'm not saying i want one, but like the reactions i get when is say 'why don't we have one?'.

And its from the same people, going on about how its a Scottish persons right to have their say leave the union or not.

As for the other comments I'm reading here ie:- 'why do England want Scotland to stay so much if we are such a burden?' - Do Cameron and Ed Miliband speak for the whole of England and Britain for that matter? As said yesterday the only reason they are in Scotland is for the own backsides, they don't speak for what the majority of England think, as said the majority of England don't even care.

I care though, i don't want Scotland to leave the union even though i think we will be better off after the short storm, i want us to stay together for historical reasons more than anything, is that a big enough reason to stay together though? I also believe even if Scotland leave Britain, we could never get rid of you and there's potential for trouble ahead, you might leave, but your still right on our doorstep, half of your country will still be divided (those who wanted to leave and those who wanted to stay) and those who wanted to stay certainly won't keep their mouths closed early stages of independence when times are hard and it could turn to trouble, going into our backyard and we could be looking at another N.Ireland.

It takes years/decades/century's to build a stable nation, if 'yes' voters think once Scotland goes independent *bam* jobs, every Scottish home eating caviar for tea. You're in for a big shock, there will be no free prescriptions/free tuition/free care for the elderly/council tax freezes anymore, if you do I'm not sure how it's going to be done.

Infact looking at all that, why the hell would want to leave? You get everything but your arse wiped, Cameron seems to be offering you that now though

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

I can see that could happen, but if there is a yes vote then I would expect both sides to sit down and work out the practicalities. Others have pointed out that it would be in neither country's interest if the debt responsibility was not clearly laid out. There would be no need for public posturing after a vote, there would be a need from both nation's point of view to come to agreement.

No one knows what the starting negotiating position of the RUK will be. We can't lay out our terms until after the vote. Lets take the national debt as an example because people keep using fair share as if there was some obvious figure.

Lets suppose the RUK said that the debt is sovereign to the country and should be shared by territory making Scotland take 30%. After all Scotland leaves with most of the oil and fishing grounds.

That's fair right?

 

[Rednotdead]

And they get to keep Salmond as a punishment. That's only fair too.

 

[simon_xazza]

Anyone more clued up than me care to speculate whether Scottish Independence would send the gbp tumbling against the dollar 3 months before my holiday =(

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Lower pound is helping manufacturing so its not all bad.

 

[Walrus]

Anyone more clued up than me care to speculate whether Scottish Independence would send the gbp tumbling against the dollar 3 months before my holiday =(

im off to Spain in 5 days, wondering whether to buy extra euros in the hope of getting a better exchange rate when returning after the referendum

 

[simon_xazza]

Oh an also, the holiday aside, If Scotland want independence I would be more than happen to have it cut off and let it float up into the Artic.

 

[simon_xazza]

im off to Spain in 5 days, wondering whether to buy extra euros in the hope of getting a better exchange rate when returning after the referendum

You are probably onto a winner but it depends because a drop of afew pence would only be break even because exchange rates are always a bit off the actual rate.

 

[Rednotdead]

Anyone more clued up than me care to speculate whether Scottish Independence would send the gbp tumbling against the dollar 3 months before my holiday =(

Yes, most probably. The Markets hate uncertainty and there would be a lot of uncertainty after a Yes vote. If No wins, everything ok.

You know what to pray for!

 

[NewDawnFades]

What i hate being English is why we have to bend over backwards for the union, we have to be politically correct all the time. English tax payers get less even though we pay more, we can't be patriotic and if we do ie:- England songs playing during World Cups on the radio, Scottish/Welsh/Irish phone up complaining - England don't even have a national anthem, we use the British one when England play, we don't even have an English government.

I say when do we English get a vote on Independence?

You don't think an English parliament would be far more likely if we vote yes? We don't hate the English or want to stop being close partners with the union it's merely a political decision that people are entitled to make which for some reason you seem to resent a lot.

 

[NoWinNoFee]

You don't think an English parliament would be far more likely if we vote yes? We don't hate the English or want to stop being close partners with the union it's merely a political decision that people are entitled to make which for some reason you seem to resent a lot.

I don't resent it at all, all i say if Scots are entitled to this vote then why aren't English?

Would Scots resent an English vote to Independence away from you? How would that make you feel or even better how would you feel if positions was reversed, Scotland is the dominate country in the union, bends over backwards for England, English people get more than Scots, yet England want more and for the most part hate Scotland and the union (hence the referendum), how would you feel and how would you feel even if England said no?

Put it this way even if Scotland say 'no', everyone here is not going

 

[Walrus]

I just went back to watch the main clips from the 2nd independence debate of Darling vs Salmond, which apparently 71% of Scots felt Salmond won, and couldnt believe it.

Salmond certainly showed better gamesmanship, playing to the crowd, but almost everything he said was completely without substance. He attacked Darling on the grounds of him (Darling) being a Labour MP defending the Tories (completely irrelevant to the debate) and couldnt answer very basic, fundamental questions like the elephant in the room that is Currency. Now I understand that currency was already debated the first time around, but that doesnt stop it being an important issue and if I were a Scot I would be alarmed at the lack of information or a plan regarding this, only days before the vote. The very fact that there were audible groans from the crowd when Darling mentioned currency, alarms me - just because it has been said before does not mean it doesnt bear repeating.
The scaremongering about not taking on national debt? How anyone can believe that sort of posturing is beyond me. For a start, if Scotland refuses to take on the National Debt then I could very easily see the UK refusing to grant independence. Secondly, if for some reason Scotland DID become independant without any of the UKs National Debt, then do you really think it paints Scotland in a good light in international/global politics and diplomacy - a newly formed country refusing to take on its share of debt, and in dispute with the rUK about it? That would certainly get you off to a good start.

Im again not suggesting that all Scots have bought into his idiocy, but if the man engineering the entire referendum cant even make a solid case in several aspects, I dont understand how any well informed Scottish person can take him, or the notion of independence, seriously - the concept is sound, but the execution looks impossible to me. The fact that Salmond (and most of the Scots I have spoken to with regard to this issue) seem to place so much emphasis on removing Trident, on getting out of any sort of wars or conflicts, and minimising Scotlands military/nuclear presence, I find astounding. It would be lovely if we could live in a world with no guns, no nukes and no wars, but it is a pipe dream. "If you want peace, you must prepare for war."
Scotland may not be a popular target for terrorists (although as an Englishman I would worry about said terrorists using Scotland as a launching platform into England, if the Scots are simply going to try to distance themselves and try to rely on isolationism), but in this day and age I see military/nuclear deterrents as a necessity to any first world country.
This is in addition to the various business threatening/planning to relocate their HQ from Scotland to south of the border in the event of independence - you would see a significant capital and brain drain from such an exodus. I can imagine that if Scotland does not get instant EU membership (as I believe would be the case) then this exodus would be increased further still as business would want to remain based in the EU.

The other concern from Scotlands point of view is the fact that the country is so divided over this. Whatever the result of the decision, half of the country is going to be against it - not a particularly stable backdrop for either result.


I have said before that my main concern over Scotland leaving the UK is simply that I dont want to see the UK weakened as an entity, and therefore having less sway in important global affairs, the UNSC etc. Other than that however, I dont think that rUK/England would be any worse off without Scotland, quite the opposite in the longer term, but I would prefer to see the Union kept together.

 

[NewDawnFades]

I don't resent it at all, all i say if Scots are entitled to this vote then why aren't English?

Would Scots resent an English vote to Independence away from you? How would that make you feel or even better how would you feel if positions was reversed, Scotland is the dominate country in the union, bends over backwards for England, English people get more than Scots, yet England want more and for the most part hate Scotland and the union (hence the referendum), how would you feel and how would you feel even if England said no?

Put it this way even if Scotland say 'no', everyone here is not going

You can but it doesn't happen over night. The Scottish Constitutional Convention has been a project built on since the 1980s. As far as I know only the English Democrats want to establish one. Any idea if UKIP do?

 

[Lynk]

I don't think those voting YES have really thought this through.

Anyone with a brain can see it would be a disaster for Scotland, and the UK, for them to leave. Makes no sense.

People said the same about Ireland in 1920.

 

[Lu Tze]

People said the same about Ireland in 1920.

And look how wonderfully Ireland is doing today. Obviously it was still the right decision in hindsight but frankly Scotland is not Ireland. It's not half as culturally/historically different from rest of the UK as Ireland is. I mean for fecks sake the union itself is older than 95% of nations.

 

[Cheesy]

And look how wonderfully Ireland is doing today. Obviously it was still the right decision in hindsight but frankly Scotland is not Ireland. It's not half as culturally/historically different from rest of the UK as Ireland is.

Yet his point still stands. A large number of countries have gone independent (not one has rejected a chance at independence), yet it's the rich, resource-filled Scotland which many feel is likely to fail. Something seems a wee bit off with that argument.

 

[Pink Moon]

we could be looking at another N.Ireland.

Hope not. Would hate to see innocent and unarmed Scottish civilians murdered by the British army.

Tongue in cheek, for the easily offended among us

 

[Lu Tze]

Yet his point still stands. A large number of countries have gone independent (not one has rejected a chance at independence), yet it's the rich, resource-filled Scotland which many feel is likely to fail. Something seems a wee bit off with that argument.

Nobody's saying that Scotland will fail and fall into the sea a la Atlantis. By and large people are saying that like most nations which go independent there will likely be a rough transitional period which many might wish they could have avoided by remaining part of the UK - and that the Scots are being undersold the difficulties of the process.

 

[Vidic_In_Moscow]

I wonder how messy the divorce will get should the 'Yes' campaign win. Let's give them the pound and all of our debt!

 

[Lynk]

And look how wonderfully Ireland is doing today.

Better than the famine, cultural culling and slaughter the British Empire brought us to be fair.

 

[Lu Tze]

Look at these devious Westminster bankers saying IScotland will have a shit time. Those jolly old English, Eton and Oxbridge educated prigs over at Credit Suisse have predicted that

"In our opinion Scotland would fall into a deep recession. We believe deposit flight is both highly likely and highly problematic (with banks assets of 12x GDP) and should the Bank of England move to guarantee Scottish deposits, we expect it to extract a high fiscal and regulatory price (probably insisting on a primary budget surplus). The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn. In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment."

 

[Lu Tze]

Better than the famine, cultural culling and slaughter the British Empire brought us to be fair.

TBF I did edit it. Ireland made the right call, obviously. That doesn't necessarily mean it'll be the right call for Scotland.

 

[Vidic_In_Moscow]

If we lose Scotland are we doomed to an eternity of Tory's?

 

[Pink Moon]

Nobody's saying that Scotland will fail and fall into the sea a la Atlantis. By and large people are saying that like most nations which go independent there will likely be a rough transitional period which many might wish they could have avoided by remaining part of the UK - and that the Scots are being undersold the difficulties of the process.

They'd be idiots. Everyone is well aware that it could be rough at first but nobody is voting so they can see benefits in 5 weeks time. We're looking decades ahead. Go ask all of the countries that have gained independence from Britain if they'd like to forget all about it.

 

[Cheesy]

If we lose Scotland are we doomed to an eternity of Tory's?

Unless Labour are really, really, really shite, then probably not. They've won plenty of elections in the past where our vote didn't swing it. In fact, our vote has hardly ever changed the outcome.

 

[ThierryHenry]

Yet his point still stands. A large number of countries have gone independent (not one has rejected a chance at independence), yet it's the rich, resource-filled Scotland which many feel is likely to fail. Something seems a wee bit off with that argument.

Quebec have repeatedly.

Though I agree that Scotland could prosper in the long run, even if 'short term pain' will be unavoidable following a yes vote.

 

[C'est Moi Cantona]

People have been betting on this for a long time - the bookies currently stand to have a big payout on a yes vote and lose money on a no, so the odds on a no vote are being kept low. The odds reflect the bookies' liabilities more than anything else.

Though you could argue long term confidence in the no vote means a lot, the validity of the current polls will be unclear until results come in.

Betfair doesn't work like that, it's punters, betting against punters, betfair themselves would have no liabilities on this, so it would actually be a pretty fair gauge imo.

 

[Walrus]

They'd be idiots. Everyone is well aware that it could be rough at first but nobody is voting so they can see benefits in 5 weeks time. We're looking decades ahead. Go ask all of the countries that have gained independence from Britain if they'd like to forget all about it.

Just as some on here deserve to be criticised for stereotyping scots as a bunch of sentimental braveheart fans, this notion that you (and others) are portraying that everyone in Scotland is voting with their head and has a well informed opinion, is equally ludicrous. Continually making snide remarks about Britain does little to help deter the "you are just doing it because you hate us" argument.

 

[Cheesy]

Just as some on here deserve to be criticised for stereotyping scots as a bunch of sentimental braveheart fans, this notion that you (and others) are portraying that everyone in Scotland is voting with their head and has a well informed opinion, is equally ludicrous. Continually making snide remarks about Britain does little to help deter the "you are just doing it because you hate us" argument.

There are people voting with their hearts and not their heads either way, though. There may be some of the "Braveheart" types voting yes, but a large majority of them are doing it because they do believe Scotland will be better off.

At the same time, while the majority of No voters are voting No because they feel the risks are too big to go independent, there are people out there who will be voting No because they hate Alex Salmond, or love the whole idea of the union and haven't bothered to look into it. Again, not a majority of them, but they're out there on either side.

 

[Pink Moon]

Quebec have repeatedly.

Though I agree that Scotland could prosper in the long run, even if 'short term pain' will be unavoidable following a yes vote.

Quebec isn't a country.