It's really not that complicated. Its easy to understand why the "Super League" idea has never caught on even though people have been talking about it 30 years. The Champions League evolved instead of the richest clubs breaking away in the 1990s because the domestic + CL model is simply more profitable than a super league idea. Period.
And the point I was trying to make was that reason why UEFA established (then repeatedly reorganised) Champions League was precisely to prevent the creation of a European Super League. After all if the potential success of the ESL was as bad as you claim then UEFA would have still retained the European Cup as it was before 1992, simply because the big clubs would have no leverage to force UEFA to make all those changes in the first place.
1) A breakaway league of the 6-8 richest teams is not enough to obtain a broadcast contract that is worth more than both the current domestic and CL money. The reason is simple: games. more games = more money on contracts. A super league with 6-8 teams cannot generate enough matches to even come close to matching the current domestic + CL money. You could try having the teams play each other 4-5 times in league to make up for it but that would get very boring very quickly.
Again you seem to assume that firstly the Premier League, the LFP (Spain), the DFL and the LFP (France) would all be willing to kick out those clubs (and lose vast amounts of money in the process) in solidarity with UEFA and that secondly you seem to assume that the other big-medium size clubs in England, Germany, France, Spain and Italy would all love to lose out financially (and their best players) as well by not also joining such a Super League.
Besides even if both the leagues and the other big clubs where all collectively dumb enough to agree to such stupidity (unlikely), one has to realize that even the league only consisted of 6 of the biggest clubs in Europe, it would be more than compensated for the fact that the games themselves would all be among the biggest games of the European Footballing calendar in terms of viewership and marketability (1), games which any sports broadcaster worth their salt would have to have on their channels. So if lets say if the broadcasters collectively offered £4.8 billion over 3 years for worldwide broadcasting rights (a figure which is less that BT Sport and Sky paied for the domestic rights to both the EPL + CL) (2), it would make financial sense for those 6 clubs to leave.
Likewise even if the broadcasters where also dumb enough to pass on such games, then the ESL/Clubs can take the opportunity to cut out the middle man and offer their own (legal) streams/broadcasts direct to the fans themsevles, which would allow them to increase their broadcast revenues compared to now.
2) So that leads to (2) because a Super League is not going to be attractive to any more than 6-8 teams. Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Atletico, Dortmund, etc have zero incentive to join a super league. That super league would have to somehow absolutely guarantee those teams more profits than the current domestic + UEFA set-up and as (1) shows that is almost impossible for a super league to guarantee.
Again as I said in my last post, those clubs face a choice; either lose out in terms of broadcast revenue and the prospect of retaining their best players (3) or actually increase their overall revenues and perhaps even better compete with the other (main) clubs in Europe on a more level playing field than in most of Europe's Leagues.
I mean for example if you where Atletico and Dortmund for example, this would be the best chance you are ever going to get to catch up with your bigger more dominant rivals (we all know who they are) (4) while if you are Tottenham you can pay for the new stadium without having to sell your best players to help pay for it thanks to the increased broadcast revenues.
And even then those sides are all trading top of the table status to become bottom of the table cannon fodder.
Well considering the broadcasting/commerical revenue disadvantages Tottenham, Atletico, Dortmund face compared to their bigger rivals (and yes Arsenal is one of those), they all seem to be doing quite well to compete with them. So it is not reasonable to suggest that they going to be "cannon fodder" for those bigger teams rinstead of saying they wold be more able to compete with them.
Arsenal whines about competing with three richer clubs.
A club which makes more in revenue than PSG (even with all the Qatari sponsorships) a member of one of the (Non Gulf Royal) richest families in the world as their majority shareholders and one of the richest people in Russia as a minority shareholder.
No way they would abandon ship on the current model just to enter a competition with 8 richer clubs. None of the Arsenal, Liverpool or Tottenham owners would ever do that.
Not even for £100 million more in broadcast revenue (at least) and to enable them to better compete with those 8 richer clubs? I cannot see the likes of Levy (who has a new stadum to pay for) saying no to that nor Arsenal (considering their keeness on the revenues in the Champions League) considering the negative (financial) consequences on the CL with the emergence of the ESL.
Its a nice novelty idea to ponder in the pub every once in a while when drunk, but there is a reason the game has evolved the way it has. In the end, its much more profitable to stick with the current domestic + UEFA rules than if the richest 6-8 tried to break off and form their own thing outisde UEFA, FIFA, FA, etc.
The game has evolved the way it has partly because of the demands of the Big Clubs and partly because UEFA is as greedy/corrupt as they are (if not more). Reguardless a ESL (depending on how it is formatted) could easily be as lucrative as PL and CL combined (assuming the leagues are stupid enough to kick those ESL clubs out of their leagues) for the reasons I have explained thoughout this post. Reguardless
Re: the Rea/Barca factor
Also most of your posts seem to be based on the flawed argument that only going PSG/City levels of sugar daddy could have ever provided competion for Real/Barca. That simply isn't true. The Real/Barca dominance of the late era results from two basic temporary factors: they had the two generation greats in Messi and Cristiano but more importantly - this was the tail end of their completely unfair dominance of La Liga broadcast money which gave the two sides an unfair competitor advantage over PL, BL, Serie A sides for the last 15 years. Even before that but the effect really manifested in the 2000s.
Removing Real/Barca's unfair competitor advantage of broadcast contracts would have naturally balanced the playing field without the need for insane country backed clubs. But now instead we are locked into that era. So you are incorrect that sugar daddy's were somehow necessary to provide competition. Removing the braodcast advantage of Real/Barca and letting the cycles naturally evolve would have been preferable to state owned sugar daddy clubs which now locks in a far smaller amount of competitors than would have naturally existed.
We can debate endlessly about why Real Madrid and Barcelona are the 2 dominant clubs of Europe (reasons which date back many decades), the fact is that they have for better or worse reached that position though those various reasons and because of this they have broken new ground at how successful a football club can be in Europe. More importantly the fact is that neither Manchester United (5) nor Chelsea (6), nor Juventus, nor the Milan clubs (7) and not even Bayern Munich have been able to compete with these clubs no matter how much they have spent.
Thus considering how both clubs have raised the bar it is not unreasonable to suggest the only way you are able to get any club to properly challenge their dominant position in Europe is by allowing clubs like City and PSG to heavily invest in their squads (8) to enable them to properly challenge them (9), especially when it comes to buying the best players in the European Leagues. Because for all the investment both clubs have done, it has only been enough for them to reach the same level as the likes of Manchester United, Chelsea and Juventus.
I am doubting that even clubs like Bayern would want to entertain your idea. Bayern is quite content to sit where they are. Why would they willing leave just to constantly content with clubs much richer than them when they can dominate Germany?
Much richer than them? Seriously? Considering how they monopolise German Domestic Football, enjoy a vast amount of commercial revenue (highest of any football club unless I am mistaken) from the major companies of Germany and will benefit from considerably higher broadcast revenues than they currently do at the moment (10), I would strongly question such a claim. Likewise when you take account of the likelihood that broadcast revenues that the other Bundeslega clubs get would fall as a consequence of them going to the ESL, it would mean that they would be more able get the best players from those clubs and thus dominate German Domestic Football even more.
When you add all those factors together, it is no surprise that Bayern's own CEO has covertly supported such a concept (11) and in turn he has also been in the forefront in pushing for more changes in the Champions League.
Notes
(1) Especially if those 6-8 capitalize on the lack of FFP and increased broadcasting revenue to buy up the best players from the big-medium clubs who have opted out of the ESL and more importantly the fewer number of games per season would enable the players of those teams to put more effort into each game.
(2) In other words £250 million minimum for all the 6 clubs, with the champions getting an additional £30 million, the runners up getting an additional £20 million and the other 4 teams getting an additional £12.5 million each.
(3) Especially since the ESL would be able to offer both higher wages and top-level football while the big/medium football clubs (outside the ESL) would likely look into cutting the wages of their players due to reduced revenue.
(4) Not only thanks to the increased broadcasting revenue, but also because of the likelyhood that the revenues of such a ESL deal would distributed as equally as is the case in the Premier League, which would be a step up compared to the TV Deal's in the Mainland European Leagues.
(5) Even with Fergie, Rooney and Ronaldo, likewise the fact that United ended up selling Ronaldo to Real expressed this failure more than anything else.
(6) For all Roman Abramovich billions, they are still a long way off being on those clubs level, which more than anything else will be the reason why Hazard and Courtois will end up leaving Cheslea and thus (I fear) end up at Real.
(7) In the 90s they certainly could, however they where already falling behind those clubs in the 2000s (Hence the sales of Ronaldo Luis and Kaka to Real, Zlatan to Barcelona and Crespo to Chelsea) and these days they are both in a shadow of their former selfs.
(8) Especially if they play in the Premier League (like City) and thus find it more difficult to win (let alone dominate) their league in question when compared to Real and Barcelona in La Liga. So if they want to be in a position to challenge their domestic rivals at home and Real/Barcelona, they need to have a stronger overall squad (and certainly more strength in depth than either of those 2 clubs) than Real and Barcelona.
(9) A situation which we are nowhere near in doing considering how poor our European record is compared to our Domestic one, after since the 2008-2009 season we have won 2 League Titles (while finishing 2nd twice) and 3 Domestic Cups while only getting past the Round of 16 once. In comparison Barcelona have won the League 6 times (alongside 5 Domestic Cups and three 2nd place finishes) and has won the Champions League 3 times (alongside 3 Semi-Final appearances and 3 Quarter Final appearances) while Real Madrid has won the League Twice (alongside 2 Domestic Cups and six second place finishes) and the Champions League 3 times (alongside 4 Semi-Final appearances).
(10) According to the latest figures from the Deloitte Football Money League, Manchester United got £194 million from broadcast rights while Bayern Munich got £126 million. Now if they both got £262.5 million per season (and this assumes they don't finish 1st or 2nd) under the ESL broadcasting deal it would mean that Bayern's broadcast rights revenue increase by £136.5 million (in other words more than double their current revenues in this area) and United's would go up by £68.5 million. Which on its own would allow Bayern (even taking account of the increased broadcasting rights revenue of United) to have a similar level of revenue to Manchester United.
Likewise if Bayern feel it is still not enough to properly compete with City and PSG then they could always increase their commercial sponsorship revenue to an even greater extent since there is scope to do so. For example when it comes to their kit deal Bayern and Chelsea have similar worldwide shirt sales, let Chelsea get £60 million a year from Nike while Bayern get a "mere" £42.5 million per year from Adidas despite the "special relationship" the company has with Bayern. So increasing the deal by £20 million per season (to £62.5 million) would not be unreasonable.
Long story short, with an ESL broadcasting deal and a better kit deal alone Bayern's revenues could easily reach £650 million per (up from £500 million currently), likewise with other improved sponsorship deals it could even go as high as £700-750 million. Surely that would be enough to compete on transfers with the likes of City...
(11) The only reason why he has not been more open about it is due to opposition to an ESL among their fanbase (who lets not forget ultimately own the club)