Brazilian Elections

Arruda

Love is in the air, everywhere I look around
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Not sure how many have an interest in this, but I'm positive many will if Bolsonaro eventually wins. For those who don't know he's a right-wing populist of the worst kind (who many call a fascist). He also has a very Duterte-like stance on crime.

At the moment, exit polls predict a comfortable win for him in the first round. If he doesn't reach 50% of the votes then he will have to dispute a second round against the second most voted candidate, who will probably be Haddad, successor to Lula and Dilma in PT.

Polls suggest he will lose a second round, but I'm not sure we should be so confident of that.

If he becomes president of Brazil, he's bound to become a worldwide celebrity for the worst reasons possible.
 
The generation that survived WWII is dying off and we are determined to turn back the clock because we are ignorant.
 
Wasn't this roughly what was expected after Lula was disqualified? I remember seeing the poling shift strongly the moment he wasn't included.
 
Adisa said:
The generation that survived WWII is dying off and we are determined to turn back the clock because we are ignorant.
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Learning from history really isn't our strong suit.
 
Was Brazil particularly affected by WW2?

Isn't this nostalgia for martial law-and-order and material security, the stuff Putin (for example) feeds on?
 
Arruda said:
Polls suggest he will lose a second round, but I'm not sure we should be so confident of that.
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The anti-PT sentiment is very strong, so I hope the losing candidates show active support for Haddad now and put any rivalries aside. I think Ciro and Marina have worked with the previous PT government so hopefully their voters don't abstain from voting in the second round.

Bolsonaro is truly a disgusting human being.
 
berbatrick said:
Wasn't this roughly what was expected after Lula was disqualified? I remember seeing the poling shift strongly the moment he wasn't included.
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Don't know about that, but he gained a lot of support when he was stabbed last month.
 
He won 46% of votes in the first round, with the second candidate getting 29.3%. Even if the other candidates group together to support Haddad, I guess that Bolsonaro will win.

What is wrong with the world?
 
What impact would this have on the world and Europe? I mean Brazilians have to live with him if he is that bad, but i would rather know what impact he would have on people that had nothing to do with electing him outside of Brazil.
 
PedroMendez said:
It's to some extend in the public eye a vote about corruption Vs. Democracy and democracy might not be the priority. Brazil is a very conservative country.
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Yes I should have included corruption within law-and-order. Similar sentiments helped modi too.

edit - i should clarify a major difference. as far as i can see, modi's campaign was always looking forward. there was no nostalgia, since in the right's view we have been subjugated by muslims, then by british, then by traitorous secular/westernised corrupt leaders (three different kinds of foreigners/foreign influence). modi's own party has previously ruled for only 6 years out of 70 since independence, and the guy in charge then was a moderate by modi's standards.
so there is nothing to be nostalgic about - modi's campaign was always looking at a powerful and prosperous future. i understand that bolosnaro looks back at the military dictatorship. and i think erdogan and putin also like nostalgia.
 
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I think we'll see an increase in these types of governments around the world. People are sick of the grip big business has on the centre left/centre right parties and the ultra capitalist policies that follow. The far right offers an alternative and has a more appealing narrative than the far left. It's always easier to blame blacks, gays and women than it is to blame the successful rich people that the poor people want to be.
 
Sweet Square said:
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https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/08/bra...-candidate-wins-first-round-in-a-blowout.html

Brazilian stocks soar the most since January after far-right candidate wins first election round
  • Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro garnered 46.7 percent of the votes in Sunday's first round. Former Sao Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad came in second with 28.5 percent.
  • Investors have recently cheered Bolsonaro because they favor his economic platform. Bolsonaro has also promised to take a tough stance against corruption.
  • Investors fear a Haddad victory would maintain the types of policies that have pressured Brazil's economy.
  • The Brazilian real rallied more than 2 percent against the U.S. dollar.
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Fascism and not giving a feck about the workers has always been good for big companies.
 
Zlatattack said:
I think we'll see an increase in these types of governments around the world. People are sick of the grip big business has on the centre left/centre right parties and the ultra capitalist policies that follow. The far right offers an alternative and has a more appealing narrative than the far left. It's always easier to blame blacks, gays and women than it is to blame the successful rich people that the poor people want to be.
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Bolsonaro is a liberal, tbh.

 
Bolsonaro is pretty much the polar opposite to a liberal even in the economic sense. The man glorifies the former military dictatorship, that was extremly interventionist/active in the economy (and completly inept). He hired Paulo Guedes, who is a mainstream neoliberal economist, to calm the international markets. It is unclear how he is going to reconcile those two contradicting views.

Brazil is pretty much fecked. The looming fiscal crisis in 2020/21 is going to be a disaster with Bolsonaro as president.
 
PedroMendez said:
Bolsonaro is pretty much the polar opposite to a liberal even in the economic sense. The man glorifies the former military dictatorship, that was extremly interventionist/active in the economy (and completly inept). He hired Paulo Guedes, who is a mainstream neoliberal economist, to calm the international markets. It is unclear how he is going to reconcile those two contradicting views.

Brazil is pretty much fecked. The looming fiscal crisis in 2020/21 is going to be a disaster with Bolsonaro as president.
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He acts like a liberal though.
 
izec said:
What impact would this have on the world and Europe? I mean Brazilians have to live with him if he is that bad, but i would rather know what impact he would have on people that had nothing to do with electing him outside of Brazil.
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I dont think it has any impact in europe. In latin america would be very relevant. When the left is winning in Brazil, they tend to spread in the continent.

Also, the brazilian economy is relatively important. The GDP nominal is bigger than Russia for example. In fact Brazil is only the 9 economy in the world today, but in 2012, before the current crisis, it was the 5 largest. The GDP is "artificially" depressed in the moment due to the huge devaluation of currency during the political crisis. After the election, when the situation back to normal, the tendency is the economy to be among the 6 largest in the world.

Brazil is part of the BRICS with Russia-India-China-South Africa. Those countries were trying to create international institutions free from american control. Including a bank of the BRICS and to use another currency in the trade(not dollar). In fact, all the political scandals started after the advance of the BRICS project and the discovery of massive oil reserves in Brazil in the 2000s. Its not a notable coincidence?

First NSA was caught racking the cell phone of the Brazilian president and other authorities in the Brazilian oil sector; then all the denuncies against the government becomed a daily show in the tv. The Parliament made the impeachment of the president and the new government tried hard to sell all the oil reserves to foreign companies. Again, its not a notable coincidence?
 
PedroMendez said:
Bolsonaro is pretty much the polar opposite to a liberal even in the economic sense. The man glorifies the former military dictatorship, that was extremly interventionist/active in the economy (and completly inept). He hired Paulo Guedes, who is a mainstream neoliberal economist, to calm the international markets. It is unclear how he is going to reconcile those two contradicting views.

Brazil is pretty much fecked. The looming fiscal crisis in 2020/21 is going to be a disaster with Bolsonaro as president.
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His admiration for the dictatorship has nothing to do with the economic side of it. He favours torture, police authority to kill and not be investigated/prosecuted, etc, that's why he liked them, he's an authoritarian. Also he was a military in the past.

I read somewhere that he admitted being a bit clueless in economics so will trust his advisors for policy, but he is campaigning clearly as a liberal, almost libertarian I'd say. All he talks about is privatising companies, deregulation, lower taxes and a smaller state.
 
I think he is goin to win. They're sweeping everything. Both his sons were elected for the senate, one of them with the highest number ever of votes for a federal senator.

Romario was a favourite for governor in Rio, but the winner of the first round, instead, was a guy that was almost unknown and without the support of a party. Bolsonaro endorsed him recently and that alone was enough.
 
Global progressives are having an anxiety attack over the near-triumph Sunday of Brazil’s conservative presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro. After years of corruption and recession, apparently millions of Brazilians think an outsider is exactly what the country needs. Maybe they know more than the world’s scolds.
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From the wsj editorial board
https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazilian-swamp-drainer-1539039700
 
izec said:
What impact would this have on the world and Europe? I mean Brazilians have to live with him if he is that bad, but i would rather know what impact he would have on people that had nothing to do with electing him outside of Brazil.
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Well, Brazil is one of the lungs of the world. Maybe the most important.

If they keep destroying the Amazon, the impact will be felt everywhere. So a president just as ignorant as Trump, can only be bad news., for Brazil and whole world.
 
George Owen said:
Well, Brazil is one of the lungs of the world. Maybe the most important.

If they keep destroying the Amazon, the impact will be felt everywhere. So a president just as ignorant as Trump, can only be bad news., for Brazil and whole world.
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The majority of oxygen actually comes from sea algae, so we're not going to run out anytime soon. Of course, destroying the Amazon has other, awful effects in any case.
 
One of the "centrist" (centrist my ass) parties, PSDB, the third biggest party in Congress, has already officially announced that they won't officially support either candidate.

Some of their figures have already announced their personal endorsement of Bolsonaro though.

Bolsonaro chances increasing each day. Haddad needed to unite everyone else to have any chance of winning, but Lula and PT are far too hated to allow for that, and the other side supporters are far more millitant. It will be Hillary vs Trump again.
 
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