Brexit and Financial Markets

AshfordLad said:
If you want to be dramatic then atleast use correct numbers. Its hardly been 10%.


No more than 5% of financial services will relocate to eurozone. EU will need to cur off its nose and ears to hurt UK.
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You're not very good with numbers are you, on 18th November approx 9 months ago it went over 1.43 and had touched 1.165 in the last few days - 23% in 9 months

You referred to someone's post earlier about VAT and thought it would be 10 or 12% - you are probably referring to import duty tariffs - VAT is 20% which importers will have to pay on top of the import duty to import goods into the UK from somewhere outside the free trade zone - ie probably about 1/3rd total extra finance for the importer - ie disaster for all those importers importing from the EU if it is outside the free trade area.
 
AshfordLad said:
If you want to be dramatic then atleast use correct numbers. Its hardly been 10%.
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Yeah it's about 11% since the night of the 23rd. 19% though since mid November and I suppose thats when the uncertainty over the referendum may have started. Likely to go down further when Article 50 does get invoked.

AshfordLad said:
No more than 5% of financial services will relocate to eurozone. EU will need to cur off its nose and ears to hurt UK.
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That's interesting where did you get that information from?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You're not very good with numbers are you, on 18th November approx 9 months ago it went over 1.43 and had touched 1.165 in the last few days - 23% in 9 months

You referred to someone's post earlier about VAT and thought it would be 10 or 12% - you are probably referring to import duty tariffs - VAT is 20% which importers will have to pay on top of the import duty to import goods into the UK from somewhere outside the free trade zone - ie probably about 1/3rd total extra finance for the importer - ie disaster for all those importers importing from the EU if it is outside the free trade area.
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Why November and not September or even January 2015?? Am I missing an obvious reasons why that dates significant?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You're not very good with numbers are you, on 18th November approx 9 months ago it went over 1.43 and had touched 1.165 in the last few days - 23% in 9 months
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While it is clearly idiotic to take the number from 9 months ago. Even if you did that the pound would have fallen 18%. (1.43-1.16)/1.43 = 18.8% :lol:

Before calling someone else out you better check if your math is better than a 10 year old. Which is clearly not.

Smores said:
Why November and not September or even January 2015?? Am I missing an obvious reasons why that dates significant?
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That simply does not fit his agenda. It seems that the real fearmongering has only started post the result.
 
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Smores said:
Why November and not September or even January 2015?? Am I missing an obvious reasons why that dates significant?
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possibly the high water mark? stocks show 52 week high and 52 week low.
 
Jippy said:
That number is total BS. No-one has a clue until the passporting situation (or lack thereof) is finalised.
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Its a reasnoably well informed guess on my part. You can choose to call it what ever you want.

Most jobs will stay in London even if the companies are forced to move their HQs to Dublin or wherever. Even that 5% number is a bit of exaggeration on my part.
 
FlawlessThaw said:
So you just made it up. OK.

I know from a German perspective, Frankfurt are excited at the prospect of courting the City companies and becoming the world's financial hub. I mean you could well be right @AshfordLad but it's way too early to make any call.
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You can call it made up but I have been gathering opinions from the city on this in overdrive.

I work as an options trader at a small/new fund in the city. For my area of work, I just cant see any job/domicile moves happening as UK was the only EU member stopping the slaughter of trading firms by the EU regulation and taxation. I just cant see my industry willingly moving towards the sharp end of the socialist knife. Secondly, Many smaller firms (such as mine) in the city have hardly anything to do with the eurozone. Thirdly, every possible destination has massive pitfalls for the industry. France has taxation issues, Germany has worker rights issues, Italy and Spain have language and economic issues.

If push came to shove, larger banks might have to move their HQs to Dublin and keep London as a corp office/operations hub. The only thing that will end up moving is the european investment banking jobs which are in dire situation with no hope of picking up.

I have talked to some senior people in other areas of finance too and without going to much in detail, most seem unconcerned to mildly agitated due to the current uncertainity.

Obviously things can go tits up for the city depending upon how tough and long drawn the negotiations are but I always like to to attach a number to scenarions even though it may have high variability around it.
 
AshfordLad said:
Its a reasnoably well informed guess on my part. You can choose to call it what ever you want.

Most jobs will stay in London even if the companies are forced to move their HQs to Dublin or wherever. Even that 5% number is a bit of exaggeration on my part.
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I hope you're right, but it seems a good chunk of investment banking jobs could move, but asset management will see fewer as you say. My wife and I have a vested interest here and fear the worst.
 
AshfordLad said:
You can call it made up but I have been gathering opinions from the city on this in overdrive.

I work as an options trader at a small/new fund in the city. For my area of work, I just cant see any job/domicile moves happening as UK was the only EU member stopping the slaughter of trading firms by the EU regulation and taxation. I just cant see my industry willingly moving towards the sharp end of the socialist knife. Secondly, Many smaller firms (such as mine) in the city have hardly anything to do with the eurozone. Thirdly, every possible destination has massive pitfalls for the industry. France has taxation issues, Germany has worker rights issues, Italy and Spain have language and economic issues.

If push came to shove, larger banks might have to move their HQs to Dublin and keep London as a corp office/operations hub. The only thing that will end up moving is the european investment banking jobs which are in dire situation with no hope of picking up.

I have talked to some senior people in other areas of finance too and without going to much in detail, most seem unconcerned to mildly agitated due to the current uncertainity.

Obviously things can go tits up for the city depending upon how tough and long drawn the negotiations are but I always like to to attach a number to scenarions even though it may have high variability around it.
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Brevan Howard moved to Switzerland cos of higher rate tax gripes a while back. You might see more follow suit. My missus is a hedge fund analyst and is worried her multi-national family office will move overseas.
 
Jippy said:
I hope you're right, but it seems a good chunk of investment banking jobs could move, but asset management will see fewer as you say. My wife and I have a vested interest here and fear the worst.
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Can understand where you come from. Personal stakes always make one fear the worse.

My job is not safe either but I do not have much to tie me up compared to those who have been in the industry for much longer.
 
AshfordLad said:
No more than 5% of financial services will relocate to eurozone. EU will need to cur off its nose and ears to hurt UK.
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How did you come out with that?

Even the WTO chief had admitted that if the UK doesn't manage to get a deal with the single market that it stands to lose billions. No wonder why so many from the leave campaign has quit and no wonder why Theresa May has been begging for preliminary talks with the EU prior to activation article 50. The UK cant afford leaving the single market without a deal
 
And just for balance in the discussion we should take a look at the third largest economy remaining inside the EU and how well it is doing by comparison to the UK.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36770311


It must be those lazy Italians who don't pay their taxes either. It couldn't be anything to do with the EU or the Euro.
 
AshfordLad said:
While it is clearly idiotic to take the number from 9 months ago. Even if you did that the pound would have fallen 18%. (1.43-1.16)/1.43 = 18.8% :lol:

Before calling someone else out you better check if your math is better than a 10 year old. Which is clearly not.


That simply does not fit his agenda. It seems that the real fearmongering has only started post the result.
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1.165 X 123% = 1.43295 - Not that difficult - when the pound was doing well and until the Brexit referendum loomed
But if you want to go by 18.8% fine, the pound is doing wonderfully if you say so, against that worthless currency called the Euro

Please let me know how far you wish the pound to drop so that you continue to be happy with what has happened to the economy, remembering that this is only the beginning
- there will be other movements if and when Article 50 is invoked, when the markets know what fantastic deals the Uk have struck with the EU and other parties and if and when the UK does leave the EU in maybe 3 or 4 years time and all the uncertainty in between

And finally at the end of the day what will have been achieved.

AshfordLad said:
Also, if you are going to to lie, then lie well my friend.

Heres my post that you refer to.
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So you quote the post I'm referring to and then say I'm lying - what are you talking about - not understanding imports eh?
 
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GloryHunter07 said:
Sorry @Paul the Wolf but @AshfordLad 's calculation is correct.
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Firstly he said it was barely 10% - secondly when I posted the post the Euro was at 1.165 in November it was 1.433 -ie 23% more than it was at 1.165

Whether it's 17 18 19 20 21 22 23% it's a very sharp drop against a currency that is supposedly dying.

Let's see where the pound is after the next set of events - article 50 etc
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
And just for balance in the discussion we should take a look at the third largest economy remaining inside the EU and how well it is doing by comparison to the UK.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36770311


It must be those lazy Italians who don't pay their taxes either. It couldn't be anything to do with the EU or the Euro.
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Well as you mentioned it, Italy's biggest problem is they have the worst labour productivity levels of all the major European nations, and one of the highest levels of public debt of any nation. Not a good mix.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Firstly he said it was barely 10% - secondly when I posted the post the Euro was at 1.165 in November it was 1.433 -ie 23% more than it was at 1.165

Whether it's 17 18 19 20 21 22 23% it's a very sharp drop against a currency that is supposedly dying.

Let's see where the pound is after the next set of events - article 50 etc
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You're right that the drop is sharp and alarming but in fairness you need to measure the percentage against the starting figure, so the height, not where it ends up.
 
Rado_N said:
You're right that the drop is sharp and alarming but in fairness you need to measure the percentage against the starting figure, so the height, not where it ends up.
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I don't want to keep arguing about this but either way it's bad but the pound was worth 23%more than it is at 1.165 , now has recovered today due to the Tory party leadership
Can May make the right decisions to keep the Uk economy afloat is the next question.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Firstly he said it was barely 10% - secondly when I posted the post the Euro was at 1.165 in November it was 1.433 -ie 23% more than it was at 1.165

Whether it's 17 18 19 20 21 22 23% it's a very sharp drop against a currency that is supposedly dying.

Let's see where the pound is after the next set of events - article 50 etc
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Paul for crying out loud thats not how you measure a change in value. Its a small point so just accept it and move on.

If something was 100 and is now 95, it has changed -5. -5/100 =-5.0%

NOT 1-(100/95) = -5.26%
 
Yeah @Paul the Wolf , numbers are wrong but your point is still valid - Doesn't matter if it's gone down by 23% or 19% since November, it's still a massive drop.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Paul for crying out loud thats not how you measure a change in value. Its a small point so just accept it and move on.

If something was 100 and is now 95, it has changed -5. -5/100 =-5.0%

NOT 1-(100/95) = -5.26%
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I keep saying let it go and people keep coming back -
Anyway if something costs £1 today - 9 months ago it cost £1.50 - 9 months ago it was 50% more expensive than it is today or it has dropped 1/3rd in value from that time
Everyone happy
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I keep saying let it go and people keep coming back -
Anyway if something costs £1 today - 9 months ago it cost £1.50 - 9 months ago it was 50% more expensive than it is today or it has dropped 1/3rd in value from that time
Everyone happy
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Yet you keep trying to defend your mistake.

You said: "pound has lost 23% against the Euro" which it hasnt and is different to "it was 23% more expensive" which you didnt already say but perhaps is what you meant.

Im sorry, i agree with most of what you've said in the thread, but i just cant help but correct the maths.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Yet you keep trying to defend your mistake.

You said: "pound has lost 23% against the Euro" which is different to "it was 23% more expensive".
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You won't let it go , so I come back again...

If today I change £1 and get Euro 1.165 (and yes before everyone starts jumping on me again I know the rates have since moved a bit)
If 9 months ago I changed £1 and got Euro 1.433 I would have got 23% more Euros for my £1 9 months ago

Last reply on this matter
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You won't let it go , so I come back again...

If today I change £1 and get Euro 1.165 (and yes before everyone starts jumping on me again I know the rates have since moved a bit)
If 9 months ago I changed £1 and got Euro 1.433 I would have got 23% more Euros for my £1 9 months ago

Last reply on this matter
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Thats not what you said originally, which started this whole thing off.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Ok but that's what I meant, not going to argue any more about this

Next - what is going to happen next - can May save the british economy?
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Glad we sorted that.

I think May is the best of a bad bunch, certainly compared to Leadsom, Gove, Boris. She seems quite central and progressive on some matters, but right wing on others so im uncertain. She seems like a steady pair of hands but even the best PM could struggle with the impending shit storm.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Glad we sorted that.

I think May is the best of a bad bunch, certainly compared to Leadsom, Gove, Boris. She seems quite central and progressive on some matters, but right wing on others so im uncertain. She seems like a steady pair of hands but even the best PM could struggle with the impending shit storm.
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On what issues does May seem central and progressive?

Can't think of one example of her time in the Home Office.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Glad we sorted that.

I think May is the best of a bad bunch, certainly compared to Leadsom, Gove, Boris. She seems quite central and progressive on some matters, but right wing on others so im uncertain. She seems like a steady pair of hands but even the best PM could struggle with the impending shit storm.
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Yes its striking that she has played her cards so close to her chest that we know little about her "vision" despite her being in the cabinet for years.

She's making a lot of the right noises TBF but I am yet to be convinced she isnt saying what she thinks people want to hear in order to "unite the country". Seeing Labour in disarray must make it very tempting to try and win over centrists / floaters who are not against voting Tory as a matter of principle. This also makes me wonder if she is thinking about a snap election, as I was discussing in another thread yesterday, so she can hoover up Labour voters and increase the Tory majority. It seems to me that is a very realistic ambition for her to have, tho I can see why others think this is unlikely. Either way, talk is cheap and always flows freely among people basking in victories, but I doubt anything significant will come out of it.

Despite being a Remainer I think she will deliver what her party wants on Brexit, which means as much as she tries to keep us in the single market I dont think she will be able to, as she will be forced to choose immigration controls.
 
I understood that she was really in favour of leaving but didn't want to commit, hence the discreet campaigning
 
NinjaFletch said:
On what issues does May seem central and progressive?

Can't think of one example of her time in the Home Office.
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She progressively hounded and deported more and more students?

There does seem to be an absence of scrutiny at the moment. She's had quite a poor and dodgy record. I do think she has some admirable qualities but her ethics worry me.
 
Adebesi said:
Scrapped plans for ID cards. Reformed stop and search powers of the police, acknowledging there was racial profiling going on. Refused to extradite Gary McKinnon. Took on the police and told them to reform or else.
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ID cards was a manifesto pledge I think? She also spent enough time ignoring medical advice and her own home office reports (a favourite past time of hers) on McKinnon that's I'm not going to give her credit on the U turn.

I'm going to give her enough credit that her voting record can be explained by party loyalty and i'm on my phone so can't be bothered to dredge up links but I think her consistent attitude towards human rights, mass surveillance and deportation workers rights suggests she's a long way from being progressive.

I do wonder if Leadsom was set up by the Tory centre as a poison pill in order to make May seem palatable.
 
Smores said:
She progressively hounded and deported more and more students?

There does seem to be an absence of scrutiny at the moment. She's had quite a poor and dodgy record. I do think she has some admirable qualities but her ethics worry me.
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I dont want to excuse her on that but at the same time I do feel she was in a difficult position. (You always are in the Home Office)

You have Cameron (and his consigliere Osborne) saying they would get numbers of immigrants down. But that was mostly completely unachievable. The only way you could make any progress on it would be to go after certain groups that you could control. And that is what she did. Should she have just completely ignored the targets instead? I would prefer she had. But it is cynical of Osborne to approve setting these targets in the first place, and then criticise her for doing what she could to achieve them. After all, she was doing what her party's voters wanted her to do - bring down numbers of immigrants.

But again, to reiterate, I would absolutely rather she hadnt done it. I would rather the Tories didnt make dumb promises about immigrants in the first place, and they newspapers wouldnt scapegoat them to deflect attention from voters' real problems. I would rather the government tackle exploitative bosses, and stop people hiring immigrants and treating them like slaves, rather than demonising people who have often been brought here under false pretenses, or at least have come here to improve their own lives. If they were paid fairly they would not undercut British workers.

So yeah, there is a lot more she could have done. But as has already been said, she's the best of a bad bunch.
 
NinjaFletch said:
ID cards was a manifesto pledge I think? She also spent enough time ignoring medical advice and her own home office reports (a favourite past time of hers) on McKinnon that's I'm not going to give her credit on the U turn.

I'm going to give her enough credit that her voting record can be explained by party loyalty and i'm on my phone so can't be bothered to dredge up links but I think her consistent attitude towards human rights, mass surveillance and deportation workers rights suggests she's a long way from being progressive.

I do wonder if Leadsom was set up by the Tory centre as a poison pill in order to make May seem palatable.
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Maybe. But to who? Only Tory members had any say anyway #democracyinaction

Agree with the rest of what you say though. Up until a few weeks ago I would never have imagined myself saying anything nice about this harpy.
 
Adebesi said:
Maybe. But to who? Only Tory members had any say anyway #democracyinaction

Agree with the rest of what you say though. Up until a few weeks ago I would never have imagined myself saying anything nice about this harpy.
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The electorate as a whole. Obviously I've argued they're under no obligation to hold an election but if May had got it under almost any other circumstance the calls for an election would be far louder.

Instead she's been able to step in as a safe pair of hands and a stability candidate and the Tories can turn around and say to the electorate 'be careful what you wish for'.

Obviously May's passage to the PM job has been made significantly easier by Angela bloody Eagle. Whether you think Corbyn needs to go or not the timing of the leadership challenge has killed any chance of Labour opposition to this in the short term.
 
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