Brexit and Financial Markets

[Raoul]

Pound gone up by 2 points today..

Just looking over the history of £ to the $. It was at one stage steadily at 2.8 , then had a massive drop to 2.4, in 1971. Does anyone know what this was? was it the due the U.K applying to enter the EU? Also 1986, it was 1:1 at that stage.

Sounds like this was around the time of Nixon ending Bretton Woods and the creation of the floating peg system.

 

[McLovin]

They call it a 'dead cat bounce'. Opportunist investors buying up while prices are low. We shall have to wait and see.

Yep, have heard the term before

Dead-cat-bounce? Probably.

 

[Born2Lose]

There is a confidence within the City that perhaps the implications to this vote may not be as immediate nor far reaching as many initially thought, providing opportunities for bargain hunters to grab shares at a discount.

If only I'd spent that money I invested two days ago on an FT subscription.. such foresight.

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/06/29/the-tale-of-two-ftses-a-chart/

 

[Raoul]

I wouldn't put too much faith into this two day rally. The markets may go up a bit more but longer term the risk is definitely to the downside.

 

[Dan]

 

[711]

It is huge. The market doesn't seem to care though.

 

[Adisa]

DIY recession.

 

[M18CTID]

FTSE was down 30 or 40 points early doors but is now 20-odd points up. Can't see any big gains for the 3rd day running

 

[Xeno]

All this excitement piqued my interest, so I tried to log into IG:

Unfortunately, your account has been deactivated. We apologise for the inconvenience.

There are a number of possible reasons, including:

• Inactivity for two or more years
• Incorrectly entering your password three times
• Account suspension to safeguard against suspected fraud

Last time I used it was 2012 haha, I think there's a few hundred quid on there that's all. Is IG good or should I look elsewhere?

 

[11101]

I wouldn't put too much faith into this two day rally. The markets may go up a bit more but longer term the risk is definitely to the downside.

I think the LSE will resume fairly normal trading from now on, the only difference being a gradual negative divergence from the other major markets. I think in absolute terms the FTSE will climb barring any further disastrous decisions. Brexit is accounted for now and it will be business as usual until businesses start announcing European moves etc.

GBP will be the one that struggles to recover.

 

[Jippy]

Wow, James Hanbury at Odey Asset Management made £110m in two days Friday/Monday with a short sterling/long gold trade, and some timely equity shorts.

 

[Xeno]

Wow, James Hanbury at Odey Asset Management made £110m in two days Friday/Monday with a short sterling/long gold trade, and some timely equity shorts.

With what sort of capital?

 

[Jippy]

With what sort of capital?

The fund is £1.1bn- not sure if that is before or after. Odey Absolute Return fund.

 

[Xeno]

10% returns in two days. I should have read Economics :/

 

[Jippy]

He's earning his performance fee I guess.

 

[Nick 0208 Ldn]

 

[Classical Mechanic]

UK stock market seems to be outperforming all the major Western markets today.

 

[#07]

 

[the hea]

This is a very good article explaining why the FTSE100 is doing so good despite the fear of a British recession.

 

[Grinner]

Anyone got any Fund tips?

 

[RedSky]

So the pound to dollar is collapsing again. Any reason why?

 

[Zarlak]

So the pound to dollar is collapsing again. Any reason why?

Project fear.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Anyone got any Fund tips?

I use this to select funds

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/help-choosing-funds/wealth-150

It is like the idiots guide.

Jupiter Asian Income has been my best performing fund. I only bought into it a few months back but my current yield is at 8.21%, he has really killed after Brexit, as did all my funds.

 

[711]

Anyone got any Fund tips?

I use this to select funds

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/help-choosing-funds/wealth-150

It is like the idiots guide.

Jupiter Asian Income has been my best performing fund. I only bought into it a few months back but my current yield is at 8.21%, he has really killed after Brexit, as did all my funds.

I use the same CM, but I'm pretty sure Grinner will be aware of it too, and the need for diversity.

Bond funds worry me. Needed for that diversity, but if interest rates rise they'll tank faster than you can sell 'em.
I therefore have L&G Global inflation-linked, with holdings mostly US inflation based.
Probably unspectacular, so not the gamble you were looking for Grins, just an enhanced diversity, if you will.

 

[Jippy]

So the pound to dollar is collapsing again. Any reason why?

Carney hinted at an interest rate cut and further stimulus over the summer.

 

[Jippy]

I use this to select funds

http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/help-choosing-funds/wealth-150

It is like the idiots guide.

Jupiter Asian Income has been my best performing fund. I only bought into it a few months back but my current yield is at 8.21%, he has really killed after Brexit, as did all my funds.

Good pick, it's got a very solid manager. Not Grins can buy UK funds for tax reasons, given he's over in the US.

 

[Jippy]

I use the same CM, but I'm pretty sure Grinner will be aware of it too, and the need for diversity.

Bond funds worry me. Needed for that diversity, but if interest rates rise they'll tank faster than you can sell 'em.
I therefore have L&G Global inflation-linked, with holdings mostly US inflation based.
Probably unspectacular, so not the gamble you were looking for Grins, just an enhanced diversity, if you will.

You can get inflation-proofing through infrastructure funds, although a lot aren't cheap at the mo', given the dash for yield.

 

[711]

You can get inflation-proofing through infrastructure funds, although a lot aren't cheap at the mo', given the dash for yield.

I've looked at the Global infrastructure funds thanks, Lazard and First State are on the watchlist.

 

[Jippy]

I've looked at the Global infrastructure funds thanks, Lazard and First State are on the watchlist.

Yep, them, Rare and Macquarie are the biggies. There are a whole bunch of listed ones too. Might prefer the closed-ended fund route tbh.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Pound dropping yet again - will it go below €1.19 before end of the day

 

[Stanley Road]

FTSE doing well

 

[Dumbat12]

Project fear.

Pound dropping yet again - will it go below €1.19 before end of the day

#TAKE BACK CONTROL!

 

[Paul the Wolf]

FTSE doing well

So are all the other world stock markets but people can't buy things with share certificates

 

[Paul the Wolf]

And there we go £- dips under €1.19 - another 10% and it will be lowest level ever against the currency from the stagnant EU

 

[Stanley Road]

Great, cheaper trips back home

 

[Grinner]

Good pick, it's got a very solid manager. Not Grins can buy UK funds for tax reasons, given he's over in the US.

I should be alright so long as I don't report anything to the IRS!

 

[Jippy]

Standard Life Investments has suspended trading in its £2.9 billion property fund because it cannot meet the flood of redemption requests. Kind of feels like 2008 all over again.

 

[Zarlak]

Great, cheaper trips back home

Are you wumming? I can't tell anymore. Your cheaper trips back home is not a good thing for this country or our economy, it's nowhere near being described as 'great'. It's actually awful.

 

[Smores]

Standard Life Investments has suspended trading in its £2.9 billion property fund because it cannot meet the flood of redemption requests. Kind of feels like 2008 all over again.

Yeah saw that. I pulled my money out of a similar prolerty fund a while back due to concerns I had on liquidity. Saying that i understood a lot are carrying huge amounts of cash due to inflows and a lack of opportunities so it may not be too bad.

I'd imagine anyone with a property fund would be withdrawing right now though if they have sense.

 

[Jippy]

Yeah saw that. I pulled my money out of a similar prolerty fund a while back due to concerns I had on liquidity. Saying that i understood a lot are carrying huge amounts of cash due to inflows and a lack of opportunities so it may not be too bad.

I'd imagine anyone with a property fund would be withdrawing right now though if they have sense.

Yeah, been doing a ringaround, seeing if other asset managers are following suit. They're all denying it, but no way the huge redemptions seen from the asset class are solely focused on that fund. Reckon at least another couple will gate investors in the next few days.