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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
I see that both Liddington and Gove have distanced themselves from the PM job. Why anyone would want that job at the moment without a GE is beyond me.
I don't think distancing themselves means they don't want it... It's just what you are supposed to say
Gove particularly I think has been looking for this... A brexiteer who showed party loyalty in backing may.
 
Do you have any personal experience working on a zero hours contract out of interest?

Im interested in anyone that has tbh.

:confused:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-hour_contract


Employers in the United Kingdom
Zero-hour contracts were being used in an increasing number of jobs after the global financial crisis in the private, non-profit, and public sectors in the United Kingdom:

  • Reel Cinemas, UK, a small UK cinema chain, has all of its cinema staff on zero-hour contracts.
  • Sports Direct, a retailer, has 90% of its workers on zero-hour contracts
  • In August 2013, The Guardian reported that J D Wetherspoon, one of the UK's largest pub chains, has 24,000 staff, or 80% of its workforce, on contracts with no guarantee of work each week.
  • 90% of McDonald's workforce in the UK – 82,000 staff members – are employed on a zero-hour contract. According to a McDonald's spokesperson all work is scheduled in advance with no employees being "on call" and meets the needs of workers who desire or need a flexible schedule. In 2016, the store trialled offering the chance to move off zero-hour contracts but over 80% of staff chose to remain on them.
  • Hobbycraft use zero-hour contracts for the majority of their distribution staff in Burton-upon-Trent
  • A major franchise of Subway also uses the contracts, which state, "The company has no duty to provide you with work. Your hours of work are not predetermined and will be notified to you on a weekly basis as soon as is reasonably practicable in advance by your store manager. The company has the right to require you to work varied or extended hours from time to time." Subway workers are also required, as a condition of employment, to waive their rights to limit their workweek to 48 hours.
  • Burger King franchisees and Domino's Pizza operations in the UK extensively use zero-hour contracts.
  • The Spirit Pub Company has 16,000 staff on zero-hour contracts.
  • Boots UK has 4,000.
  • Buckingham Palace, which employs 350 seasonal summer workers, also uses them.
  • The National Trust, a nonprofit organisation which manages extensive historic sites and nature preserves in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland, which must deal with variable weather, uses zero-hour contracts but at the same benefits and pay as permanent employees. The Tate Galleries also use zero-hour contracts.
  • All non-management staff at Curzon and Everyman cinema chains.
  • Cineworld, a leading cinema chain, uses zero-hour contracts for 3,600 people, about 80% of its workforce, and Stephen Wiener, the founder, stated in August 2013 that he will continue using them.
  • Hertz Car Rental UK employs workers on a zero-hour contract yearly rather than give guaranteed contracts to save on costs through the winter months. Zero-hour staff are expected to do any evening or weekend work as the full time staff do not want to work these hours,
  • Yo! Sushi employs all non-management staff on zero-hour contracts, despite advertising falsely as full time
 
What he's saying is largely incorrect though - austerity isn't the only approach to tackling debts and deficits. Plenty of economists have said so - the only reason the Tories pursued austerity was because the financial crisis gave them a convenient disguise for doing so. And the fact the party have went for Brexit so keenly shows they don't give a feck about good economic management of the country, it's always been an ideological desire for them to reduce the size of the state.

Quite right.
There were essentially two primary options to overcome the global financial crisis.
Grow your way out by stimulating the economy taking advantage of the very low interest rates. This would entail increased public spending in the short term.

Austerity. The government chose the latter but as we saw this has been a dismal failure.
Firstly it didn't work because it has had to abandon it's fiscal targets.
And secondly it had to resort to quantitative easing by printing money.
The problem with austerity is that it leaves significant collateral damage to public services which take years and lots of money to repair.

The government was warned by economic experts to persue a mix of actions but being Conservatives they seemed to enjoy austerity.
 
I get that but hypothetically what in your opinion would have been a good deal?

IMO there cannot be 'a good deal' in terms purely of economics, because of the reasons I have already outlined previously. Hypothetically a 'good deal' would have to incorporate variations to the Four freedoms to suit the UK's requirements and this would effectively be a breach of (primarily) the Treaty of Rome for the EU and which it cannot allow for any member; hence we have to leave before we can negotiate freely.

When you think about what you're suggesting objectively mate does it really make any sense?

Well if you take the old adage about "If I were you I wouldn't start from here..." but here, is were we are, then it does make sense. One of the reasons we are in this position is because the former trading block (i.e. common market, entry to which was subject to a referendum) has now become something more, its now a political as well as trading entity the EU, and this was all done over the last forty years without any reference to whether the UK public wanted it or not. Now we are effectively comparing different entities, leavers were predominantly voting on the 'political union', aspect whilst remain voters mainly about economics and trade.
 
Do you have any personal experience working on a zero hours contract out of interest?

Im interested in anyone that has tbh.
I have. You can be registered as employed even though you may have had no real work in weeks/months. You also have no protection from getting booted out the door on a whim, no sick pay, etc.... Feck all that.
 
Do you have any personal experience working on a zero hours contract out of interest?

Im interested in anyone that has tbh.
I did. No work for a week and then suddenly a text message at 6 in the morning "shift in Aberdeen 12 hours starts at midday. Respond ok to accept". Aberdeen 3 1/2 hours drive from where I am. Basically it was a shit fest because if you said "no" to a single shift then you were blacklisted. It was like that for about 8 months.

Left that shithole of a job to get a cushy public sector number, and that company went bust a couple of years ago.
 
Do you have any personal experience working on a zero hours contract out of interest?

Im interested in anyone that has tbh.

I had one for about 5 years, all the way through college and uni. Was great, worked extra in the holidays, turned down shifts at exam time.

My company offers zero hours too. We have a bank of staff we call on when our perm staff are ill or on annual leave. Most of them have full time jobs elsewhere (it’s a specialist field) so they just get extra shifts for money when needed. If we can’t use those staff because they’re busy or whatever, we have to use an agency, which costs more (we’re a charity).

Zero hours contacts aren’t a problem when used sensibly. The problem is places like sports direct who use it to shave their rota down to the minimum amount of hours. Trouble is those places are already shifting to 8 hr contracts or shorter, which is barely better and a ban on zero hrs contracts wouldn’t stop that practice.
 
I think the Irish already believe this from history, don't you?
There will not be any return to a hard border between North and South on the island of Ireland. The Irish (North and South) don't want it, the UK doesn't want it and the EU says it doesn't want it... so who is going to implement it?

Not wanting a hard border isn't enough if you put yourself in a position where countries are legally obliged to have one and/or not having one leaves them open to potential litigation. You have to actually come up with ways to avoid placing yourself in that position, which the UK have so far been unable to do. Just saying "we won't implement it" doesn't solve the problem.
 
IMO there cannot be 'a good deal' in terms purely of economics, because of the reasons I have already outlined previously. Hypothetically a 'good deal' would have to incorporate variations to the Four freedoms to suit the UK's requirements and this would effectively be a breach of (primarily) the Treaty of Rome for the EU and which it cannot allow for any member; hence we have to leave before we can negotiate freely.



Well if you take the old adage about "If I were you I wouldn't start from here..." but here, is were we are, then it does make sense. One of the reasons we are in this position is because the former trading block (i.e. common market, entry to which was subject to a referendum) has now become something more, its now a political as well as trading entity the EU, and this was all done over the last forty years without any reference to whether the UK public wanted it or not. Now we are effectively comparing different entities, leavers were predominantly voting on the 'political union', aspect whilst remain voters mainly about economics and trade.
The EU really is an appalling organisation. It has at its heart a project which envisages a union with full economic and political integration - basically the demise of nation states in favour of something which seems to me to be vaguely Orwellian - but it understands that this is still unpopular with the majority of its citizens. It has therefore created this monster in which free trade is somehow linked with various aspects of political union, and perpetuated the myth that you can't have one without the other (even though every other free trade agreement in the world manages it quite nicely). This basically forces people to decide between having both free trade (popular) and increasing levels of integration (unpopular), or having neither of them.

The best outcome for most people in the EU would be for the organisation to revert to being a trading bloc, and to abandon its ambitions for political and economic integration. However, the introduction of the Euro was a major step in the direction of integration, and it would now be very difficult to unwind. The UK was a significant voice inside the EU for putting the brakes on integration, but the argument was already lost. In the longer term, our relationship with the EU was always going to have to change: either we would commit to the integration agenda, or we would walk away. I still very much hope we do the latter as soon as possible.
 
IMO there cannot be 'a good deal' in terms purely of economics, because of the reasons I have already outlined previously. Hypothetically a 'good deal' would have to incorporate variations to the Four freedoms to suit the UK's requirements and this would effectively be a breach of (primarily) the Treaty of Rome for the EU and which it cannot allow for any member; hence we have to leave before we can negotiate freely.



Well if you take the old adage about "If I were you I wouldn't start from here..." but here, is were we are, then it does make sense. One of the reasons we are in this position is because the former trading block (i.e. common market, entry to which was subject to a referendum) has now become something more, its now a political as well as trading entity the EU, and this was all done over the last forty years without any reference to whether the UK public wanted it or not. Now we are effectively comparing different entities, leavers were predominantly voting on the 'political union', aspect whilst remain voters mainly about economics and trade.

Well we'll just disagree on that one i think mate.

Also the intentions of the EU project have been pretty clear from the start as far as i know, to form closer bonds between the European powers and try to create an environment where frequent wars between countries in Europe were a thing of the past. Trade was only a part of that endeavour.

But i would be interested in your answer to the question at the end of my last post?

So taking that into consideration why exactly would the British Government have decided from the get go that they weren't even going to try to negotiate an amicable arrangement that would minimize disruption during the transition period right after leaving the EU. And just opt for a course of action that would probably also break or jeopardize an International peace treaty they are sworn to uphold and potentially destabilize an area enjoying its longest period of relative peace in a century?

To condense that further basically i would like to know how you think the UK could have made No Deal the plan from the start when it's pretty much incompatible with the GFA?
 
Increasing public spending during a recession is a quick way to economic ruin

Yet Australia did just or rather managed to.avoud recession with big public spending.
 
Many do, I know plenty of students who have for example - it's still exploitative for those who need work though.

I had a part-time job when I was a student without the need for zero hour contracts.
 
I had a part-time job when I was a student without the need for zero hour contracts.

If you're lucky that's still the case. However, lots of places only offer zero hours contracts nowadays.

I know quite a few people on them that would rather work 35 hours per week every week, which when the business deems it necessary they do, however it's an easy punishment for any slight disagreement to reduce your hours whilst giving more to others.
 
High drama at RAWK!:
Mind you, Facebook is a sewer. We had a few people getting nasty with each other in an allotment group I am in.
 
The EU really is an appalling organisation. It has at its heart a project which envisages a union with full economic and political integration - basically the demise of nation states in favour of something which seems to me to be vaguely Orwellian - but it understands that this is still unpopular with the majority of its citizens. It has therefore created this monster in which free trade is somehow linked with various aspects of political union, and perpetuated the myth that you can't have one without the other (even though every other free trade agreement in the world manages it quite nicely). This basically forces people to decide between having both free trade (popular) and increasing levels of integration (unpopular), or having neither of them.

The best outcome for most people in the EU would be for the organisation to revert to being a trading bloc, and to abandon its ambitions for political and economic integration. However, the introduction of the Euro was a major step in the direction of integration, and it would now be very difficult to unwind. The UK was a significant voice inside the EU for putting the brakes on integration, but the argument was already lost. In the longer term, our relationship with the EU was always going to have to change: either we would commit to the integration agenda, or we would walk away. I still very much hope we do the latter as soon as possible.

I ask this because you seem to have given the subject a lot of thought... From which rules are you most looking forward to us being free?

Also, what would be the downside of any demise of nation states?
 
Do you have any personal experience working on a zero hours contract out of interest?

Im interested in anyone that has tbh.
I had three zero hour contract jobs at once a few years ago to make ends meet. Two of them with the same company in different areas of the business (which was valued as the world's most profitable in its field at that time).

I can tell you from that experience that Colin is talking out of his arse. I know people in their 40s, 50s and 60s still doing those jobs without a chance that they will ever be taken on permanently, because that company knows it's not in their interests. No sick pay, no bonuses, no pensions to worry about, and if it's a quiet day, they can send staff home or phone them up beforehand at the drop of a hat and cancel their shifts. The only people that really benefit from their existence are the big companies that exploit the workers who have no other choice.
 
IMO there cannot be 'a good deal' in terms purely of economics, because of the reasons I have already outlined previously. Hypothetically a 'good deal' would have to incorporate variations to the Four freedoms to suit the UK's requirements and this would effectively be a breach of (primarily) the Treaty of Rome for the EU and which it cannot allow for any member; hence we have to leave before we can negotiate freely.



Well if you take the old adage about "If I were you I wouldn't start from here..." but here, is were we are, then it does make sense. One of the reasons we are in this position is because the former trading block (i.e. common market, entry to which was subject to a referendum) has now become something more, its now a political as well as trading entity the EU, and this was all done over the last forty years without any reference to whether the UK public wanted it or not. Now we are effectively comparing different entities, leavers were predominantly voting on the 'political union', aspect whilst remain voters mainly about economics and trade.

The myth that the 1975 referendum was purely about joining /staying in an economic market is long dead. It wasn't true then and it isn't true now.

Having a FTA with the EU is not going to solve the problems the UK will experience being outside the Customs Union or the Single Market.
 
I did. No work for a week and then suddenly a text message at 6 in the morning "shift in Aberdeen 12 hours starts at midday. Respond ok to accept". Aberdeen 3 1/2 hours drive from where I am. Basically it was a shit fest because if you said "no" to a single shift then you were blacklisted. It was like that for about 8 months.

Left that shithole of a job to get a cushy public sector number, and that company went bust a couple of years ago.

Being sent to Aberdeen alone is enough exploitation!
 
I think the Irish already believe this from history, don't you?
There will not be any return to a hard border between North and South on the island of Ireland. The Irish (North and South) don't want it, the UK doesn't want it and the EU says it doesn't want it... so who is going to implement it?

History has nothing to do with that post. We're talking about present time here. WTO rules lead to hard borders. So either the UK choose to have a hard border with Ireland else it has to remove all borders with everyone else. Sure strictly speaking things can go smoothly in that way unless someone (ie 169 WTO members) complains. However we all know that is next to impossible. Someone WILL complain. That's why Hammond and Karen Bradley had said that in an event of a no deal brexit hard borders will be necessary

PS The EU will expect Ireland to protect the single market from the 'food' and non EU complaint products the British will have to accept following any trade deals set after Brexit. As said the integrity of the single market is key here.
 
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History has nothing to do with that post. We're talking about present time here. WTO rules lead to hard borders. So either the UK choose to have a hard border with Ireland else it has to remove all borders with everyone else. Sure strictly speaking things can go smoothly in that way unless someone (ie 169 WTO members) complains. However we all know that is next to impossible. Someone WILL complain. That's why Hammond and Karen Bradley had said that in an event of a no deal brexit hard borders will be necessary

PS The EU will expect Ireland to protect the single market from the 'food' and non EU complaint products the British will have to accept following any trade deals set after Brexit. As said the integrity of the single market is key here.

Northern Ireland stays in the Single Market and the Custom's Union one way or another.
 
I ask this because you seem to have given the subject a lot of thought... From which rules are you most looking forward to us being free?

Also, what would be the downside of any demise of nation states?
I'll take your last question first. The concept of the nation state isn't perfect, but I think it has served us fairly well for several centuries. It also supports a reasonable level of accountability of the government to the governed (in democracies at least). The notion of replacing nation states with larger agglomerations seems to me to be an experiment in which there are no obvious upsides. There is evidence already of tensions between the interests of the EU as a bloc, and the interests of the populations of individual states. It is going to be interesting to see how these play out as I don't see them going away any time soon.

To your first question, I accept that, as non-participants in the Euro or Schengen, we already avoid some of the 'rules' (though I doubt the long term viability of our form of EU membership). I would nevertheless like us to be able to set aside the free movement of people within the EU, and to craft policies which can be adapted to suit our specific needs (see below). I would also like to take us out of the jurisdiction of any EU legislature - as a mature democracy, we're perfectly capable of crafting and maintaining our own laws. In addition, I'd like us to be the masters of our own marine environment.

I understand that the first reaction of many people to suggestions about taking away 'free movement' is that this is based on some kind of xenophobia, or ignorance about the contribution made by immigrants to our economy and culture. To be clear, I'm not an opponent of immigration, but I do believe a country has a responsibility to manage it. By 'manage', I don't mean the setting of crude numerical targets - it seems to me that these fail to account for the fact that immigration generally benefits our economy and helps to compensate for our worsening demographic. Management of immigration would entail favouring people with particular skills, ensuring the impacts of immigration are spread, having policies to minimise 'ghettoisation', and procedures in place to quickly integrate new arrivals into our culture and way of life. Free movement as defined by the EU makes such management virtually impossible.
 
@Steerpike

You understand the whole picture.

The EU is a project whose ultimate goal is to destroy sovereign countries and moves towards a fully integrated EU so the next step is to have a European President.


https://cordis.europa.eu/project/rcn/220193/factsheet/en

The ultimate objectives of TRIGGER are to provide EU institutions with knowledge and tools to enhance their actorness, effectiveness and influence in global governance; and to develop new ways to harness the potential of public engagement and participatory foresight in complex governance decisions, thereby also tackling emerging trends such as nationalism, regionalism and protectionism


About immigration, Germany shows the way

https://codastory.com/migration-cri...efugees-pays-one-euro-an-hour-sometimes-less/
 
I'll take your last question first. The concept of the nation state isn't perfect, but I think it has served us fairly well for several centuries. It also supports a reasonable level of accountability of the government to the governed (in democracies at least). The notion of replacing nation states with larger agglomerations seems to me to be an experiment in which there are no obvious upsides. There is evidence already of tensions between the interests of the EU as a bloc, and the interests of the populations of individual states. It is going to be interesting to see how these play out as I don't see them going away any time soon.

To your first question, I accept that, as non-participants in the Euro or Schengen, we already avoid some of the 'rules' (though I doubt the long term viability of our form of EU membership). I would nevertheless like us to be able to set aside the free movement of people within the EU, and to craft policies which can be adapted to suit our specific needs (see below). I would also like to take us out of the jurisdiction of any EU legislature - as a mature democracy, we're perfectly capable of crafting and maintaining our own laws. In addition, I'd like us to be the masters of our own marine environment.

I understand that the first reaction of many people to suggestions about taking away 'free movement' is that this is based on some kind of xenophobia, or ignorance about the contribution made by immigrants to our economy and culture. To be clear, I'm not an opponent of immigration, but I do believe a country has a responsibility to manage it. By 'manage', I don't mean the setting of crude numerical targets - it seems to me that these fail to account for the fact that immigration generally benefits our economy and helps to compensate for our worsening demographic. Management of immigration would entail favouring people with particular skills, ensuring the impacts of immigration are spread, having policies to minimise 'ghettoisation', and procedures in place to quickly integrate new arrivals into our culture and way of life. Free movement as defined by the EU makes such management virtually impossible.

Thanks for the reply. I'm not going to delve far into the nation state issue, except to point out a potential for less war and tribalism in general. Maybe less competition for resources etc. But I was really just wanting to know your objections because I haven't really given the subject much thought.

We are fully capable of making our own rules, potentially at least. It is our governments which have failed in this task. I don't see how the EU have stopped us from dealing with the migraton related issues you mention. We have had higher immigration from south asia than from the EU in most years, until very recently. Our governments simply aren't interested in long term planning, unless their shares portfolio is involved. Or, to be more accurate. Labour kind of tried to help integration, but never went nearly far enough because the press love stories of money going to immigrants. Then the consevatives came along in 2010 and ripped it all up under the guise of austerity.
 
Thanks for the reply. I'm not going to delve far into the nation state issue, except to point out a potential for less war and tribalism in general. Maybe less competition for resources etc. But I was really just wanting to know your objections because I haven't really given the subject much thought.

We are fully capable of making our own rules, potentially at least. It is our governments which have failed in this task. I don't see how the EU have stopped us from dealing with the migraton related issues you mention. We have had higher immigration from south asia than from the EU in most years, until very recently. Our governments simply aren't interested in long term planning, unless their shares portfolio is involved. Or, to be more accurate. Labour kind of tried to help integration, but never went nearly far enough because the press love stories of money going to immigrants. Then the consevatives came along in 2010 and ripped it all up under the guise of austerity.
I think your comment on our governments not being interested in long term planning is very apt. Our democracy, and maybe democracy in general, has a weakness in that the full effect of policies may take decades to unfold, but we hold our governments to account (hold elections) much more frequently. A change in government all too often means a change of direction (though thankfully the convention is that new governments don't simply repeal the legislation introduced by their predecessors). I've tended to the view that our first past the post system leads to stable and durable government, but I'm starting to think that a PR based system may give us more sensible government.
 
Governability.

What is the question going to be and who decides it because we know the result will be determined by those as much as by the issue itself?

Deal or Cancel. No deal or deal. Leave or stay.

How often are we going to have these votes and who decides that ?

Are we just voting on Europe or do we broaden to other staggeringly important issues like taxation, foreign policy, bringing back hanging? If its just for EU membership on what basis in principle do you cut out the other issues?

Lets say we vote and take the deal what next, do we get another vote on each part of the trade negotiations with the EU that will follow or are we voting every bit as blind about the eventual outcome of the deal as we were on voting leave?

What if the public vote for contradicting premises or switch every other vote?



So quite a bit to fear other than democracy and when you think about it, wasn't it the fascists who liked peoples votes on issues they could frame and manipulate as a tool for autocracy hidden as direct democracy?
I'm not in favour of another vote, but I suspect it's going to happen. In order for the vote to be fair, I think there would have to be 2 questions: -

1. Should the UK stay in the EU or leave (i.e. a repeat of the 2016 referendum).

2. In the event of a vote to leave, should this be on the basis of the deal presented by the government, or should it be on a different premise which would have to be negotiated after we have left (i.e. leaving without a deal in place).

The second question would only become relevant if the answer to the first question was 'leave'.

I would also make it absolutely clear that the referendum result was binding.
 


I honestly don't know how the parallels between the enslavement of ancient Hebrews in Egypt and Brexit have escaped me up until this point. How could I have missed Boris as Moses? His first act as PM? Ten plagues on Europe until they set the UK free.
 
D2dMVhPWwAIZHi6.jpg:large
 
I know the average Brexit voter is slightly older but I'm not sure that 3000+ year old references are going to work that well. It was suggested that it was discussed today that some of her MP's might get on board with her deal in exchange for her setting out her departure, in line with the Sun's front page, but Johnson's comments (when you ignore his usual bullshit nonsense) indicate that isn't the case.