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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Abizzz said:
After no deal JRM, Boris and Javid can set the tariffs to suit their (and their backers) interests. One theory why Trump wants to break up the international trading system is that he is creating the perfect situation to enrich himself and his cronies by adjusting tariffs to their interest in the resulting mess. I don't see any reason why Boris would do it any different.
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Don't think there is much strategy on what trump is doing further than political gain. Maybe on those traiffs increases there is a 0,000001% strategic that he disguise among all the tariffs but overall, money scares pretty quick, and causing chaos brings nothing good to the establishment. Trump is digging his own grave IMO with the commercial war, might win voters on his base, but the big companies I am sure they will work to manipulate somehow the public opinion during the elections. It is afecting Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook...and they will not tolerate it

Boris has no power in the international scene, so whatever he will do, he will do it in a more controllable scale because he would not cause international chaos at that level ((not counting brexit, I am saying afterwards) but local chaos so he could definitely trace a sort of strategy to do what you say he might do.

Anyway, less than 3 months and I don't see anything much changed. Why the extension?
 
4bars said:
Don't think there is much strategy on what trump is doing further than political gain. Maybe on those traiffs increases there is a 0,000001% strategic that he disguise among all the tariffs but overall, money scares pretty quick, and causing chaos brings nothing good to the establishment. Trump is digging his own grave IMO with the commercial war, might win voters on his base, but the big companies I am sure they will work to manipulate somehow the public opinion during the elections. It is afecting Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook...and they will not tolerate it

Boris has no power in the international scene, so whatever he will do, he will do it in a more controllable scale because he would not cause international chaos at that level ((not counting brexit, I am saying afterwards) but local chaos so he could definitely trace a sort of strategy to do what you say he might do.

Anyway, less than 3 months and I don't see anything much changed. Why the extension?
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Because the UK don't know what the feck they are doing and the EU didn't want to be blamed for no food on British tables (so they allowed it).
 
4bars said:
And of this 2.1 billions, imagine how many will go on contracts like that Ferry company without boats. Brexit will be the perfect storm for corruption to go on rampage
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It will mainly impact the Trump-esque supporters in the drive-over counties. When they're eating a meal less a day they'll realise. Until then they are still busy making the bed with the 'Out Means Out' sheet and duvet cover. Lying in it time will come.
 
Abizzz said:
Because the UK don't know what the feck they are doing and the EU didn't want to be blamed for no food on British tables (so they allowed it).
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Well I hope will be just 1 extra time. spinning around will help no one whatever the outcome
 
Dumbstar said:
It will mainly impact the Trump-esque supporters in the drive-over counties. When they're eating a meal less a day they'll realise. Until then they are still busy making the bed with the 'Out Means Out' sheet and duvet cover. Lying in it time will come.
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Brexit will be bad, but UK will be a normal country with economic issues, but not apocalyptic ones
 
Abizzz said:
Because the UK don't know what the feck they are doing and the EU didn't want to be blamed for no food on British tables (so they allowed it).
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It’s not that though is it. They don’t want economic harm to their own countries. Germany is moderately exposed whilst Spain is much less so.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It’s not that though is it. They don’t want economic harm to their own countries. Germany is moderately exposed whilst Spain is much less so.
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I think is a combination of both. They need to keep trying for their economies and at the same time to not be accused of not trying. The second part is achieved, and the second, eventually the economy will ask to move on in front of the uncertainty
 
4bars said:
I think is a combination of both. They need to keep trying for their economies and at the same time to not be accused of not trying. The second part is achieved, and the second, eventually the economy will ask to move on in front of the uncertainty
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I disagree. Germany are not in a great position economically currently and their trade with the UK is at an important level. There are many countries in the EU with little to no exposure to the UK economically but Germany are by far the most powerful diplomatic power in the bloc. The extension goes through because they want it to.

Only the UK and Ireland are more exposed to Brexit than Germany and the political will in both countries is one that is willing to take the economic hit from whatever may come.

For contrast, I think the Greek economy shrank by 25% in the banking crisis and Spain hit 25% unemployment after the global financial crash, Spain’s unemployment levels are at about 14% now.

The worst case scenario estimate for the UK after hard Brexit has been forecast at an economy shrinkage something like 7% and 10% unemployment levels, the current UK unemployment level is about 4%.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It’s not that though is it. They don’t want economic harm to their own countries. Germany is moderately exposed whilst Spain is much less so.
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Well yeah, that too. However it's worth remembering that Europe has gone through a lot more than Brexit even in recent history. Brexit will be a footnote in history compared to the fall of the wall, integration of eastern Europe or German unification. All of which happened only 30 years ago (after I was born, and i'm a young man myself). While Europe wants to avoid the damage of a no deal I don't think anyone is really that scared anymore. Trade with the UK will decline significantly but it won't die off completely and other opportunities will be found.

I really do think European leaders want to avoid giving credence to any blame that will be directed at them from the UK after the fact though. They've been blamed for every train that doesn't run on time in Britain and every tide that comes in too high, I don't think they want to give those people actual reasons to complain.
 
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Classical Mechanic said:
I disagree. Germany are not in a great position economically currently and their trade with the UK is at an important level. There are many countries in the EU with little to no exposure to the UK economically but Germany are by far the most powerful diplomatic power in the bloc. The extension goes through because they want it to.

Only the UK and Ireland are more exposed to Brexit than Germany and the political will in both countries is one that is willing to take the economic hit from whatever may come.

For contrast, I think the Greek economy shrank by 25% in the banking crisis and Spain hit 25% unemployment after the global financial crash, Spain’s unemployment levels are at about 14% now.

The worst case scenario estimate for the UK after hard Brexit has been forecast at an economy shrinkage something like 7% and 10% unemployment levels, the current UK unemployment level is about 4%.
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You can be right, though speaking on unemployment rates without context is complicated and can lead to misunderstandings. ON Spain, as I am from there, I must say that even in the peak of the booming times before the suprimes and with the best economic times in the country, we barely reach 9-10% unemployment and people had money and were buoyant. Now, Spain is not that far from the 10%, but people are miserable because the salaries hare 20-30% lower than 10 years ago.

At the same time, Spanish economy is way above average in growth and even if the IMF twitched the forecast as worse in europe it did the opposite for Spain (being one of the ones that grows the most in europe.

Germany would took a big hit? yes, but at the same time Frankfurt could gain a lot of the financial services that the city has. Nothing is black an white and there are tones of greys. And I am sure the outcome will be bad for any part, but not as apocalyptic as it had been saying and future will find ways through commercial agreements. But one thing is certain, this situation can't be forever, you can't extend and extend. Uncertainty kills investment
 
Abizzz said:
Well yeah, that too. However it's worth remembering that Europe has gone through a lot more than Brexit even in recent history. Brexit will be a footnote in history compared to the fall of the wall, integration of eastern Europe or German unification. All of which happened only 30 years ago (after I was born, and i'm a young man myself). While Europe wants do avoid the damage of a no deal I don't think anyone is really that scared anymore. Trade with the UK will decline significantly but it won't die off completely and other opportunities will be found.

I really do think European leaders want to avoid giving credence to any blame that will be directed at them from the UK after the fact though. They've been blamed for every train that doesn't run on time in Britain and every tide that comes in too high, I don't think they want to give those people actual reasons to complain.
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Brexit will not be a footnote in the history of the EU. Obviously one of the biggest nations being the first to leave is historically significant. Just how significant obviously depends on what happens in the the future. I tend to think the EU is doomed to fail. The way I see it is that is creaks majorly under relatively little pressure, I just don’t think it has any chance of dealing with any sort of major crisis, such as a climate emergency and mass migration.

I’m a pessimist though. I think we’re probably at a high point civilisation wise.
 
4bars said:
You can be right, though speaking on unemployment rates without context is complicated and can lead to misunderstandings. ON Spain, as I am from there, I must say that even in the peak of the booming times before the suprimes and with the best economic times in the country, we barely reach 9-10% unemployment and people had money and were buoyant. Now, Spain is not that far from the 10%, but people are miserable because the salaries hare 20-30% lower than 10 years ago.

At the same time, Spanish economy is way above average in growth and even if the IMF twitched the forecast as worse in europe it did the opposite for Spain (being one of the ones that grows the most in europe.

Germany would took a big hit? yes, but at the same time Frankfurt could gain a lot of the financial services that the city has. Nothing is black an white and there are tones of greys. And I am sure the outcome will be bad for any part, but not as apocalyptic as it had been saying and future will find ways through commercial agreements. But one thing is certain, this situation can't be forever, you can't extend and extend. Uncertainty kills investment
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Economically and politically (to a lesser extent) you can just keep on extending, we’re plodding along at the moment and that is much more palatable to the politicians than big bad hard Brexit.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Brexit will not be a footnote in the history of the EU. Obviously one of the biggest nations being the first to leave is historically significant. Just how significant obviously depends on what happens in the the future. I tend to think the EU is doomed to fail. The way I see it is that is creaks majorly under relatively little pressure, I just don’t think it has any chance of dealing with any sort of major crisis, such as a climate emergency and mass migration.

I’m a pessimist though. I think we’re probably at a high point civilisation wise.
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I heard that a lot in the past 3 years and how the EU27 would be easy to split up by brexiteers on their way to dictating a new deal and none of it has materialized. The EU may well be badly equipped to deal with a major crisis but the individual countries would be even worse equipped if they didn't have a international alliance to work within.


Looking around the world with the Trumps, Bojos, Dutertes, Bolsoneros etc. I am uncertain who exactly is supposed to be better at dealing with these crisis?


And unless Britain implodes Brexit will be a footnote because nothing much will change after Brexit anyways. (For the vast majority of Europeans)
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Economically and politically (to a lesser extent) you can just keep on extending, we’re plodding along at the moment and that is much more palatable to the politicians than big bad hard Brexit.
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You might be right. Will see in about 3 months
 
Abizzz said:
I heard that a lot in the past 3 years and how the EU27 would be easy to split up by brexiteers on their way to dictating a new deal and none of it has materialized. The EU may well be badly equipped to deal with a major crisis but the individual countries would be even worse equipped if they didn't have a international alliance to work within.


Looking around the world with the Trumps, Bojos, Dutertes, Bolsoneros etc. I am uncertain who exactly is supposed to be better at dealing with these crisis?


And unless Britain implodes Brexit will be a footnote because nothing much will change after Brexit anyways.
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I feel it would more be about a reversion into nation-statehood in times of real extensional crisis. The complex political dynamics inherent within each component nation of the EU would be far too difficult to manage and harmonise from a central EU body. I feel these stress-lines are easily observable in these relatively calm times.

4bars said:
You might be right. Will see in about 3 months
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It can’t go on forever sure, but I see 1-2 more extensions at least. I’d be amazed if there isn’t one more.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
It can’t go on forever sure, but I see 1-2 more extensions at least. I’d be amazed if there isn’t one more.
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I only can see an extension if there is changes on the agreement, second referendum or GE. And only the latest seems plausible
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I think there will be a GE but also think they’d also give BoJo another extension if he was trying to sell a deal too.
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I’m not sure that would happen to be honest, especially if it was just another few months. The French in particular are about done with the whole mess and ready to just say au revoir.

I think the much more likely outcome is they sit back and watch the election and only seriously consider an extension if it’s a win for a party or coalition that backs a 2nd ref. Which if talk of an Oct 17th election is accurate, means any coalition talks better be seriously fecking quick.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...it-is-boris-johnsons-central-scenario-eu-told

Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating the withdrawal agreement and a no-deal Brexit is his “central scenario”, EU diplomats have been briefed following a meeting between the prime minister’s chief envoy and officials in Brussels.
David Frost, who replaced Olly Robbins as the government’s chief Europe adviser, was said to have instead sought to discuss how negotiations could be reset after the UK crashes out on 31 October, during his recent talks with senior EU figures.

“It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan. A no deal now appears to be the UK government’s central scenario.”

Quelle surprise!

 
Paul the Wolf said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...it-is-boris-johnsons-central-scenario-eu-told

Boris Johnson has no intention of renegotiating the withdrawal agreement and a no-deal Brexit is his “central scenario”, EU diplomats have been briefed following a meeting between the prime minister’s chief envoy and officials in Brussels.
David Frost, who replaced Olly Robbins as the government’s chief Europe adviser, was said to have instead sought to discuss how negotiations could be reset after the UK crashes out on 31 October, during his recent talks with senior EU figures.

“It was clear UK does not have another plan,” a senior EU diplomat said of the meetings with Frost. “No intention to negotiate, which would require a plan. A no deal now appears to be the UK government’s central scenario.”

Quelle surprise!
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I read that; my thinking was quite good for the EU to publicise that, nicely undercutting the 'it's them EU that prevented a deal' strategy.
 
Government repeateding over and over 'anti-democratic backstop' to try and plant it firmly in the public's minds.
 
Kentonio said:
Government repeateding over and over 'anti-democratic backstop' to try and plant it firmly in the public's minds.
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Johnson also now regularly talking about the country 'voting overwhelmingly to leave the EU', even though we know one of the root causes of all the problems is that it was so divisive.
 
RedChip said:
I read that; my thinking was quite good for the EU to publicise that, nicely undercutting the 'it's them EU that prevented a deal' strategy.
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Don't you just love the utter cheek of the UK government 'threatening' the EU with a no deal exit.
The EU came to that conclusion many months ago, as did anyone with even a passing knowledge of the situation, that once the WA was rejected, there was only one outcome.
This will go down in history as THE stupidest self inflicted catastrophic decisions any government anywhere has ever made.
 
This determination to go no-deal is so annoying. I was increasingly tempted to go freelance, but every company is going to cutting cost left, right and centre if this goes through. Dicey as hell time to go self-employed.
 
Buster15 said:
Don't you just love the utter cheek of the UK government 'threatening' the EU with a no deal exit.
The EU came to that conclusion many months ago, as did anyone with even a passing knowledge of the situation, that once the WA was rejected, there was only one outcome.
This will go down in history as THE stupidest self inflicted catastrophic decisions any government anywhere has ever made.
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They are not threatening the EU... They are energising their own base for an election

In that context of they win a big majority they will go down as shrewd
 
Sassy Colin said:
But we will still crash out of the EU and the country will be fecked.
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Well yes... Or not fecked depending on your point of view (I'm of the former rather than the latter)
But frankly when it comes to political power that's not as important as which party is in charge ... And in that context Johnson is playing a good game
August... Whip up anti EU sentiment
September... Make no deal official policy because the EU won't negotiate and as soon as parliament tries to block it then blame the remoaner mp's trying to block brexit and call an election
It could backfire but with the remain vote split and Corbyn being useless the only real problem seems to be can you buy farrage off with a cushy job to get him to back the conservatives and I'm pretty sure that's doable
 
sun_tzu said:
They are not threatening the EU... They are energising their own base for an election

In that context of they win a big majority they will go down as shrewd
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I guess that is one way of looking at it.
It is always good to have someone to blame.
But by now, the majority of the public will not be taken in by such posturing.
When the sh1t really starts to hit the fan, there will only be one person to blame. Good old cuddly Boris will have put our economy and peoples living standards back to the same level as the global financial crisis or even worse.
 
Buster15 said:
I guess that is one way of looking at it.
It is always good to have someone to blame.
But by now, the majority of the public will not be taken in by such posturing.
When the sh1t really starts to hit the fan, there will only be one person to blame. Good old cuddly Boris will have put our economy and peoples living standards back to the same level as the global financial crisis or even worse.
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Dont be silly - there will be millions of people with darker skin or EU immigruntz to blame
 
sun_tzu said:
Well yes... Or not fecked depending on your point of view (I'm of the former rather than the latter)
But frankly when it comes to political power that's not as important as which party is in charge ... And in that context Johnson is playing a good game
August... Whip up anti EU sentiment
September... Make no deal official policy because the EU won't negotiate and as soon as parliament tries to block it then blame the remoaner mp's trying to block brexit and call an election
It could backfire but with the remain vote split and Corbyn being useless the only real problem seems to be can you buy farrage off with a cushy job to get him to back the conservatives and I'm pretty sure that's doable
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Johnson is playing a good game....
That pretty much sums up the way politicians operate these days.
Don't forget. There is a very big pro remain section of the electorate and the government.
He might think that he is being shrewd in the short term. But, what goes around comes around....Let's see how shrewd he really is. I suspect NOT is the answer.
 
What about this: The economy crashes, a certain demographic exploits the decreased property prices to buy up property which they'll then make money off in the future, repeat in ten years time?
 
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