Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Smores]

Name a PM who hasn't made terrible mistakes.
Iraq aside, Tony Blair government was as good as any in my lifetime. Investment in the NHS and schools was of massive benefit.

Fecking hell mate it's some bloody mistake

 

[MikeUpNorth]

I wonder if the EU could somehow wind back the clock - now they’ve seen the situation just deteriorate further and further - if they would offer Theresa May a 5 year time-limit on the backstop, and if that would have got the deal through parliament?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I wonder if the EU could somehow wind back the clock - now they’ve seen the situation just deteriorate further and further - if they would offer Theresa May a 5 year time-limit on the backstop, and if that would have got the deal through parliament?

What happens at the end of 5 years? Magical solutions will not have been invented.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

What happens at the end of 5 years? Magical solutions will not have been invented.

Then they should be honest and rename the ‘backstop’.

 

[sun_tzu]

What happens at the end of 5 years? Magical solutions will not have been invented.

Ireland might have had a unification vote by then? .... Perhaps not but that would be one solution

 

[JPRouve]

Then they should be honest and rename the ‘backstop’.

The actual name is Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland.

 

[Stanley Road]

No deal is better than No deal right?

 

[MikeUpNorth]

The actual name is Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland.

I know. But do you agree with me that it’s a misrepresentation for the EU to pretend that it’s a last ditch insurance policy that they don’t intend to use?

We all know full well that the backstop would come into force and persist (unless the UK signs up to single market rules for NI and the customs union as part of a permanent future relationship) because there is no other solution that is palatable to the EU and Ireland.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Then they should be honest and rename the ‘backstop’.

The Uk government keep insisting there is a technological solution, the EU says there isn't one. Everyone who's honest knows there isn't one. So the backstop lasts until the UK come up with the technological solution.
EU calling the UK's bluff and if the UK government are so confident there is one, why should they worry about the backstop which is only an insurance policy that lasts until the technological solution is found.

After the Uk leave, if I ship a consignment of goods which are legal in the EU but are illegal in the UK, and ship (by truck and ferry )it from France to Cork to Belfast and then to Liverpool where will the inspection of the goods take place? And on the return journey I collect a consignment of goods which is legal in the UK but illegal in France?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Ireland might have had a unification vote by then? .... Perhaps not but that would be one solution

Border in the Irish Sea whatever happens?

 

[sullydnl]

Then they should be honest and rename the ‘backstop’.

Problem is it's kinda hard for the UK to object on the basis that the magical solutions will never exist when they're currently arguing in favour of said magical solutions.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Everyone saying "just get on with it" or "this has gone on long enough" are like teenagers who keep saying they'll clean their room tomorrow. Dickhead, you can just ignore the truth all you want but the reality is that this shit needs to be sorted out eventually.

"We'll make amazing deals with other countries when we're gone" we can't make any now so how exactly is that going to work?

"We'll be in a stronger position to bargain" we'll be desperate to make deals, so no we won't be in a stronger position. We'll be in a very very bad position, with our bare arses stuck up to the sky begging to get the red hot poker shoved up it.

 

[JPRouve]

I know. But do you agree with me that it’s a misrepresentation for the EU to pretend that it’s a last ditch insurance policy that they don’t intend to use?

We all know full well that the backstop would come into force and persist (unless the UK signs up to single market rules for NI and the customs union as part of a permanent future relationship) because there is no other solution that is palatable to the EU and Ireland.

Well that's not what the EU initially proposed and they clearly stated that they wanted a definitive solution so there is no misrepresentation by the EU. Also there is also no palatable solutions for the UK, you forgot to mention them in your last sentence.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

The Uk government keep insisting there is a technological solution, the EU says there isn't one. Everyone who's honest knows there isn't one. So the backstop lasts until the UK come up with the technological solution.
EU calling the UK's bluff and if the UK government are so confident there is one, why should they worry about the backstop which is only an insurance policy that lasts until the technological solution is found.

After the Uk leave, if I ship a consignment of goods which are legal in the EU but are illegal in the UK, and ship it from France to Cork to Belfast and then to Liverpool where will the inspection of the goods take place? And on the return journey I collect a consignment of goods which is legal in the UK but illegal in France?

Even Boris’s proposals keep NI in the single market for goods, so we’re just talking about customs.

No solution (some mix of technology /trusted trader schemes / SME exemptions) is ever going to be 100% effective, or probably anywhere close to that in the short term. The question really is ‘how near 100% does it have to be for the backstop to terminate?’ And who gets to decide this threshold and certify it has been achieved.

Put another way, what level of smuggling are the EU and the UK willing to tolerate over the border?

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Even Boris’s proposals keep NI in the single market for goods, so we’re just talking about customs.

No solution (some mix of technology /trusted trader schemes / SME exemptions) is ever going to be 100% effective, or probably anywhere close to that in the short term. The question really is ‘how near 100% does it have to be for the backstop to terminate?’ And who gets to decide this threshold and certify it has been achieved.

Put another way, what level of smuggling are the EU and the UK willing to tolerate over the border?

I'd be happy if they smuggle Tayto crisps to Scotland, tbh.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Even Boris’s proposals keep NI in the single market for goods, so we’re just talking about customs.

No solution (some mix of technology /trusted trader schemes / SME exemptions) is ever going to be 100% effective, or probably anywhere close to that in the short term. The question really is ‘how near 100% does it have to be for the backstop to terminate?’ And who gets to decide when it’s good enough.

Put another way, what level of smuggling are the EU and the UK willing to tolerate over the border?

NI can't be in two legal jurisdictions at the same time with different laws. The Uk Brexiters keep saying they want control of their borders -having an open border through Ireland to the UK is not controlling their borders, why not open up Dover/Calais - the reason is they are expecting Ireland to police their border for them.

 

[Rams]

Even Boris’s proposals keep NI in the single market for goods, so we’re just talking about customs.

No solution (some mix of technology /trusted trader schemes / SME exemptions) is ever going to be 100% effective, or probably anywhere close to that in the short term. The question really is ‘how near 100% does it have to be for the backstop to terminate?’ And who gets to decide this threshold and certify it has been achieved.

Put another way, what level of smuggling are the EU and the UK willing to tolerate over the border?

I know. But do you agree with me that it’s a misrepresentation for the EU to pretend that it’s a last ditch insurance policy that they don’t intend to use?

We all know full well that the backstop would come into force and persist (unless the UK signs up to single market rules for NI and the customs union as part of a permanent future relationship) because there is no other solution that is palatable to the EU and Ireland.

So why did the Brexiteers campaign during the referendum that the Irish border was not an issue and saying otherwise was scaremongering? What else have we got to worry about? Maybe this Brexit thing is a shit idea after all.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Hunt and Johnson blaming the EU if we crash out with a No Deal (which is what they want but don't want to be blamed for it themselves) and Laura Kuenssberg is doing her duty as Tory Minister of Propaganda and acting like a good little lapdog.

 

[Gibb11]

No Deal wasn't even a thing in 2017. It's an absolute lie that it's always been the default position for everyone who voted Brexit. If the Leave campaign had led with a no deal Brexit in 2016 they would've probably lost the referendum.

Not a thing? Load of rubbish, of course its the default position whether we like it or not

 

[711]

NI can't be in two legal jurisdictions at the same time with different laws. The Uk Brexiters keep saying they want control of their borders -having an open border through Ireland to the UK is not controlling their borders, why not open up Dover/Calais - the reason is they are expecting Ireland to police their border for them.

Maybe if Johnson has to ask for an extension he should ask for one so the Northern Irish can have a referendum on whether they want to be in the customs union with a border in the Irish sea, or outside the customs union with a border between the North and South. One or the other. Everyone claims to know what the Northern Irish want, but how about actually asking them? Yes they voted marginally to remain, but that was voting as a part of the UK, I suggest this would move on from that result. Whatever the Northern Irish decide, so be it, the Brits, Eire, the EU, should accept their decision.

 

[VeevaVee]

No Deal wasn't even a thing in 2017. It's an absolute lie that it's always been the default position for everyone who voted Brexit. If the Leave campaign had led with a no deal Brexit in 2016 they would've probably lost the referendum.

Some of the idiots that voted that way said it wasn't and it was presented as such, but anyone with a semblance of sense knew that it was all going to go to shit.

 

[owlo]

The problem for the EU is as follows:

- A no deal, no extension strategy makes sense; let the UK fall apart for a few months, then ram the initial withdrawal agreement with a few wording changes down their throats knowing they don't have much choice but to accept or fall apart further.

- However this strategy precludes a tory GE loss [whilst almost guaranteeing one], and a referendum to remain, which would be far preferable to all. Which would happen if the strategy was followed, as no deal impact during a campaigning period would possibly kill the tories, the lib dem and brexit party vote would be in tatter.

Which leads to the practical considerations of either allowing no deal and installing Corbyn, who may well fast track some sort of Norway+ agreement to end the chaos, or extending and hoping that the tories lose and we can get another referendum.

 

[Klopper76]

Not a thing? Load of rubbish, of course its the default position whether we like it or not

But it wasn’t even talked about as a possibility or the ‘best’ version of Brexit like it is now.

 

[stevoc]

Well that virtually guarantees the backstop (or whatever they agree) will remain indefinitely as there is no way Sinn Fein and DUP will agree on anything. It certainly is a better idea than letting the DUP hold all the power as they seem determined to do everything they can to destroy Northern Ireland with a no-deal Brexit.

My view is that anything that makes the DUP furious is generally the right thing to do.

I've thought this way for years its the sensible way to view Northern Irish politics in general.

Maybe if Johnson has to ask for an extension he should ask for one so the Northern Irish can have a referendum on whether they want to be in the customs union with a border in the Irish sea, or outside the Customs union with a border between the North and South. One or the other. Everyone claims to know what the Northern Irish want, but how about actually asking them? Yes they voted marginally to remain, but that was voting as a part of the UK, I suggest this would move on from that result. Whatever the Northern Irish decide, so be it, the Brits, Eire, the EU, should accept their decision.

That might be a way forward, it would be better than the current situation where the Tories seem to think the DUP speak for everyone in Northern Ireland.

 

[Smores]

Laura decides it's 'untested' despite the courts discussing this when the government promised they would send it and secondly all the prominent lawyers on Twitter shouting its proven with Padfield.

It's okay Laura we wouldn't expect you to do any research beyond Doms email.

 

[Berbasbullet]

Laura decides it's 'untested' despite the courts discussing this when the government promised they would send it and secondly all the prominent lawyers on Twitter shouting its proven with Padfield.

It's okay Laura we wouldn't expect you to do any research beyond Doms email.

She’s a good little lap dog to be fair to her.

 

[Adisa]

 

[horsechoker]

One of the responses which perfectly encapsulates the Brexit mindset, perfectly apt for a cliff-edge Brexit

 

[Honest John]

Border in the Irish Sea whatever happens?

That's probably going to be the outcome, with written-in guarantees that NI remains firmly part of the UK in every other aspect and there will be no moves toward reunification. This is not as bad a scenario for NI as many think.

 

[Massive Spanner]

That's probably going to be the outcome, with written-in guarantees that NI remains firmly part of the UK in every other aspect and there will be no moves toward reunification. This is not as bad a scenario for NI as many think.

Not bad? It's amazing for NI. They'll be the bridge between the EU and the UK. They'll boom.

 

[Honest John]

Not bad? It's amazing for NI. They'll be the bridge between the EU and the UK. They'll boom.

Exactly, a massive attraction for businesses that would want to relocate or start up there. The good folk of NI won't know themselves.

And ironically, the DUP will find that rather than moving towards reunification the desire to stay put will be strengthened because of that unique position

 

[MikeUpNorth]

So why did the Brexiteers campaign during the referendum that the Irish border was not an issue and saying otherwise was scaremongering? What else have we got to worry about? Maybe this Brexit thing is a shit idea after all.

Brexit is a terrible idea. It always was. But we are where we are now.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

That's probably going to be the outcome, with written-in guarantees that NI remains firmly part of the UK in every other aspect and there will be no moves toward reunification. This is not as bad a scenario for NI as many think.

That would violate the GFA. There are specific provisions about the process for unification in the treaty.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

NI can't be in two legal jurisdictions at the same time with different laws. The Uk Brexiters keep saying they want control of their borders -having an open border through Ireland to the UK is not controlling their borders, why not open up Dover/Calais - the reason is they are expecting Ireland to police their border for them.

When they say ‘control our borders’, I think they just mean the ability to restrict who has the right to work legally in the UK.

I think Brexiters envision a future where the UK has zero (or in any event very low) customs tariffs on all imported goods, regardless of origin, and regulations lower than or equal to the EU. In this future, the UK would have no customs duties to collect from EU imports and no concerns about EU goods being substandard or illegal in Britain. So the Brexiteers perceive no real danger from goods being smuggled into Britain from Ireland. In a sense, they’re not worried about policing the border because they don’t think there will be anything they need to keep out or inspect.

The EU on the other hand has real concerns that Britain could undercut EU regulations and therefore smuggling goods into Ireland is a big concern from a safety, customs and market protection perspective. (See Merkel’s fear about Britain going down the Singapore route: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/11/angela-merkel-stresses-danger-of-britain-becoming-singapore-on-thames-no-deal)

The reason free-market Brexiters think they’ll win in the end is because they think there is a fundamental asymmetry of risk when it comes to trade.

Personally, I don’t agree with their logic - unilaterally eliminating all import tariffs would pretty quickly decimate UK producers and cause mass unemployment or a slashing of wages. I am just explaining their thought process.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

She stands head and shoulders above anyone as chief thicko in a den of imbecility. Seriously, how did she ever become a politician? From reading her Wikipedia page I can only imagine her parents are ashamed of her.

 

[Honest John]

That would violate the GFA. There are specific provisions about the process for unification in the treaty.

I get that but the need for consent would have to be strongly underlined. I am no expert but my accounts manager is from a large family from the catholic community. Her father was killed by the Paras at Ballymurphy (her sister is pretty involved in the inquiry right now). She maintains that despite everything, most of the catholic community would want to remain in the UK. So having NI still in the CU, with the potential economic benefits that could bring would surely only serve to strengthen that sentiment.

It is hard to see what the DUP are afraid of.

 

[Maticmaker]

Not bad? It's amazing for NI. They'll be the bridge between the EU and the UK. They'll boom.

That may not have 'sunk in' yet with certain groups. Being in an ideal position to trade (legally or illegally) between different markets can be very advantageous for NI and it wouldn't be long before applications for business residency's increase. It might even be the catalyst that triggers the resumption of Stormont. Despite the reluctance of the Republicans to countenance its reinstatement in the event of a 'No deal' getting back to the table with the DUP etc. may be the only way of exercising any control/direction of the economic boom that will follow in the North.

If a 'no deal' goes through, it will be those who impose border controls who will have to bear the cost. At the moment despite its protestations the EU with its single market to protect would have to impose border controls and hence bear the cost. Any resumption of hostilities would be against who, what would be the uniform the border guards would be wearing (if there were any)?

 

[MikeUpNorth]

We have all been cornered into a no-deal Brexit that will harm millions - Simon Wren-Lewis in The Guardian

 

[Sweet Square]

 

[CassiusClaymore]

I know it's easy for me to say but they couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery so I seriously doubt their ability to organise a mass removal of unregistered EU citizens.