Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[GenZRed]

If you have a significant amount of money, you can do better by using a currency broker. We used one when we bought our house here, as we were cash buyers and Italy requires a bank cheque from an Italian bank when you buy property.

The broker held our funds for a while and then exchanged them to euros when the rate was decent - the euro was worth about 78p at the time.

The exchange rate depends on what happens to the markets next of course, but it's currently looking likely that the worth of your pounds savings in euros will go down, yeah. But maybe things will recover quickly in the spring after an initial dip. Plus there's the uncertainty due to the pandemic; who knows what that will do.

Apart from that though, it also depends on where you're living now and where you're moving. Here in Canada, my Ottawa house is worth little in the Vancouver housing market but would buy me an estate on Cape Breton Island, all in the same Canadian dollars. So it's hard to say really.

Thank you both for responses. @Penna I'll look into a currency broker. The money isn't a great amount but I don't want half to be wiped out by a weak pound, especially when starting a new life in a new country.

You are correct @Cheimoon about it being difficult to predict what may happen. I reckon the pound will decline quite a bit and perhaps recover slightly, although to what extent is hard to guess, as you state. I do plan on moving to the country in mind when I can land a job there and using the savings to rent an apartment while saving up what I can from my job income.

It does sting losing the right to travel and work in 20 plus countries, some of which are home to beautiful cities with a rich history.

 

[golden_blunder]

Actually there's vast amounts of EU regulations that are written almost exactly as proposed by UK regulatory bodies/ government. Something like 98% of regulations proposed by the UK have been adopted more or less unamended since we joined the EEA or whatever it was called. Now we will get 100% of nothing, yay. Or we'll make up our own rules and the trade deal goes out the window, double yay.

We also used to benefit disproportionately from EU science funding before Brexit too, not any more, we've been awarded much less than we put in since 2016 because nobody knows if the project would even have got finished since nobody knew when we were "leaving" or what "leaving" means.

Other examples would be e.g. the European Medicines Agency which used to be headquartered in London and has now I think moved to Amsterdam.

There are many more, these are just what spring to mind.

But it doesn’t beat myths, misdirections and outright lies printed on the sides of big red busses

 

[horsechoker]

The funny part is that we're all trying to second guess what's going through Boris's mind and whether he's going to agree a deal. It's doubtful that Boris knows what's going through Boris's mind.

Apparently his dumb act isn't genuine, he just pretends to be an idiot. He knows what he's doing.

Or maybe that's what he wants people to think and a spade really is a spade.

 

[golden_blunder]

Thank you both for responses. @Penna I'll look into a currency broker. The money isn't a great amount but I don't want half to be wiped out by a weak pound, especially when starting a new life in a new country.

You are correct @Cheimoon about it being difficult to predict what may happen. I reckon the pound will decline quite a bit and perhaps recover slightly, although to what extent is hard to guess, as you state. I do plan on moving to the country in mind when I can land a job there and using the savings to rent an apartment while saving up what I can from my job income.

It does sting losing the right to travel and work in 20 plus countries, some of which are home to beautiful cities with a rich history.

Such a shame that the young folk coming through schools and colleges now and in future won’t have the same freedoms we all had to move around and experience different cultures

 

[golden_blunder]

Apparently his dumb act isn't genuine, he just pretends to be an idiot. He knows what he's doing.

Or maybe that's what he wants people to think and a spade really is a spade.

He’s a clown, which he wants people to believe but really he’s not a clown which is a plan for people to believe but he’s bluffing because really he is a clown. 4d chess

 

[horsechoker]

He’s a clown, which he wants people to believe but really he’s not a clown which is a plan for people to believe but he’s bluffing because really he is a clown. 4d chess

He's the epitome of “If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit.”

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

 

[Berbasbullet]

Mark Francois back on TV, weird timing....

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Q: I bring trucks into the UK bringing in goods from Europe. Brexit is going to be hugely disruptive.

Starmer says he hopes next year will not be as disruptive as the caller fears. That is why a deal is so important, he says. He says he understands how important it is for goods to arrive in the country on time. Just-in-time manufacturing processes rely on this, he says.

Just saw the above about Starmer's radio phone-in this morning.
No wonder Starmer was such a prat with his unicorn policy. He is clueless.

 

[TheGame]

 

[Maticmaker]

Actually there's vast amounts of EU regulations that are written almost exactly as proposed by UK regulatory bodies/ government.

Sorry in my response I believed you were referring to the UK's supposed loss of power and influence globally, because we had left the EU.

Clearly we will have less influence (probably none at all) inside a club we've just left; unless that is the EU gives us a contract to write their rules for them. Also don't all EU regulations have to be passed through UK law anyway to ensure they can operate within our own domestic system?

Something like 98% of regulations proposed by the UK have been adopted more or less unamended since we joined the EEA or whatever it was called.

What is that 98% expressed as a proportion of the overall total regulations adopted in the EEA/EU since we joined, any ideas?

We also used to benefit disproportionately from EU science funding before Brexit

Wasn't that for scientific research , not funding for direct /applied science applications?

 

[Cheimoon]

Thank you both for responses. @Penna I'll look into a currency broker. The money isn't a great amount but I don't want half to be wiped out by a weak pound, especially when starting a new life in a new country.

You are correct @Cheimoon about it being difficult to predict what may happen. I reckon the pound will decline quite a bit and perhaps recover slightly, although to what extent is hard to guess, as you state. I do plan on moving to the country in mind when I can land a job there and using the savings to rent an apartment while saving up what I can from my job income.

It does sting losing the right to travel and work in 20 plus countries, some of which are home to beautiful cities with a rich history.

Absolutely. I grew up in the Netherlands and moved around a fair bit in Europe in my 20s. (Mostly as a student, so not the same situation; although I also did start from scratch in Canada.) It's unbelievable that this is happening and in the current day and age. Anyway, that discussion's been had plenty. Good luck with your eventual move and new life!

 

[TwoSheds]

Sorry in my response I believed you were referring to the UK's supposed loss of power and influence globally, because we had left the EU.

Clearly we will have less influence (probably none at all) inside a club we've just left; unless that is the EU gives us a contract to write their rules for them. Also don't all EU regulations have to be passed through UK law anyway to ensure they can operate within our own domestic system?


What is that 98% expressed as a proportion of the overall total regulations adopted in the EEA/EU since we joined, any ideas?


Wasn't that for scientific research , not funding for direct /applied science applications?

I don't care enough to find out the answers to those questions sorry. Suffice to say we did punch above our weight ref decision making in a lot of things in the EU and what we paid in monetarily was cheap at the price. Cost of Brexit is c.£200bn so far by contrast. Benefits - minor? None?

 

[JPRouve]

Actually there's vast amounts of EU regulations that are written almost exactly as proposed by UK regulatory bodies/ government. Something like 98% of regulations proposed by the UK have been adopted more or less unamended since we joined the EEA or whatever it was called. Now we will get 100% of nothing, yay. Or we'll make up our own rules and the trade deal goes out the window, double yay.

We also used to benefit disproportionately from EU science funding before Brexit too, not any more, we've been awarded much less than we put in since 2016 because nobody knows if the project would even have got finished since nobody knew when we were "leaving" or what "leaving" means.

Other examples would be e.g. the European Medicines Agency which used to be headquartered in London and has now I think moved to Amsterdam.

There are many more, these are just what spring to mind.

Maybe I'm misreading you but I believe that you made a small mistake. The UK have voted in favor of 95% of EU laws between 1999 and 2016, abstained 3% of the time and opposed to them 2% of the time. Meaning that the UK were in favor or not opposed to EU laws 98% of the time.

 

[Cheimoon]

Actually there's vast amounts of EU regulations that are written almost exactly as proposed by UK regulatory bodies/ government. Something like 98% of regulations proposed by the UK have been adopted more or less unamended since we joined the EEA or whatever it was called. Now we will get 100% of nothing, yay. Or we'll make up our own rules and the trade deal goes out the window, double yay.

We also used to benefit disproportionately from EU science funding before Brexit too, not any more, we've been awarded much less than we put in since 2016 because nobody knows if the project would even have got finished since nobody knew when we were "leaving" or what "leaving" means.

Other examples would be e.g. the European Medicines Agency which used to be headquartered in London and has now I think moved to Amsterdam.

There are many more, these are just what spring to mind.

Correct. Although anyone would have expected EU agencies and services to move away in case of a Brexit; that speaks for itself. The science bit, however, is another one of those under-the-radar things that are not considered enough. UK scientists have been sounding the alarm about Brexit ever since the referendum was announced. There will be less money to go around for them, as well as downstream consequences when scientific productivity is lowered and hence also its economic impacts. Also, that plus the whole situation might make the UK less attractive for scientists and students looking to work or study abroad.

I'll never get why anyone would think that sovereignty is worth everything else.

 

[horsechoker]

I'll never get why anyone would think that sovereignty is worth everything else.

In my opinion, people with very little who don't have much good going on cling to national identity and pride as a source of something positive. For them, being British, a major player on the world stage and supposedly not under the boot of Brussels will make their lives better.

Maybe that's an oversimplification but it's what they've been fed.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

All the details on what the UK-EU Joint Committee has agreed regarding NI from 1st Jan:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/northern-ireland-protocol-joint-committee

The Trusted Trader Scheme seems like a good solution to avoid the need for checks and tariffs on most goods moving from GB to NI.

 

[Cheimoon]

In my opinion, people with very little who don't have much good going on cling to national identity and pride as a source of something positive. For them, being British, a major player on the world stage and supposedly not under the boot of Brussels will make their lives better.

Maybe that's an oversimplification but it's what they've been fed.

Whatever happens, rather poor & free than rich & suppressed. And then apply that to a UK without or within the EU. Yeah, propaganda is a nasty thing.

 

[Wibble]

The funny part is that we're all trying to second guess what's going through Boris's mind and whether he's going to agree a deal. It's doubtful that Boris knows what's going through Boris's mind.

Mainly rude limericks and thoughts of shagging the blond in the parliamentary cafeteria I'd wager.

 

[Maticmaker]

I don't care enough to find out the answers to those questions sorry. Suffice to say we did punch above our weight ref decision making in a lot of things in the EU and what we paid in monetarily was cheap at the price. Cost of Brexit is c.£200bn so far by contrast. Benefits - minor? None?

Of course you don't!

 

[TwoSheds]

Of course you don't!

Sorry, I don't follow what you're getting at.

 

[Simbo]

As someone working for a UK import/distributer with customers in various EU countries, all I can say is that this is going to be a shitshow, a massive, massive shitshow!

 

[Simbo]

Correct. Although anyone would have expected EU agencies and services to move away in case of a Brexit; that speaks for itself. The science bit, however, is another one of those under-the-radar things that are not considered enough. UK scientists have been sounding the alarm about Brexit ever since the referendum was announced. There will be less money to go around for them, as well as downstream consequences when scientific productivity is lowered and hence also its economic impacts. Also, that plus the whole situation might make the UK less attractive for scientists and students looking to work or study abroad.

I'll never get why anyone would think that sovereignty is worth everything else.

Your a step ahead of me at least. I'll never get why anyone would think leaving the EU gains them sovereignty.

 

[UweBein]

In my opinion, people with very little who don't have much good going on cling to national identity and pride as a source of something positive. For them, being British, a major player on the world stage and supposedly not under the boot of Brussels will make their lives better.

Maybe that's an oversimplification but it's what they've been fed.

Do not think that is necessarily true, but yes, indeed, there are people in every nation who do have a higher sense of being part of a collective.
Very much the same mental mechanism that makes us football fans tick in a certain way.

 

[JPRouve]

Your a step ahead of me at least. I'll never get why anyone would think leaving the EU gains them sovereignty.

I think that at some point people mixed sovereignty and independence. Because when people talk about sovereignty they seem to often talk about the ability to do things on your own, your own way. Ironically in a subject that has been recently the actuality, the UK aren't independent when it comes military supplies in particular regarding nuclear warheads, they rely on the US for that while France for example are independent. The irony being that in the media one of the argument in favor of brexit was military independence and fear of a EU army.

 

[UweBein]

This reminds me very much of '1984'.
Cometh 2021 and we will hear "The EU did want a trade deal, but we declined."
Later in 2021, "There never have been any trade deal discussions, it was all about the withdrawal agreement."
2022, "We were never part of the EU, because we did not had the Euro."
2023, "The EU is and always has been an enemy of the British people."
2024, "We are here where we we are because we won the fight against the EU..... that is what ultimately matter, and nothing else."

 

[horsechoker]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/15/kent-lorry-park-to-miss-brexit-day-deadline

Kent lorry park will not be ready for Brexit day after heavy rain

Weather has hampered work on site intended to relieve queues around Dover from 1 January

 

[sun_tzu]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/15/kent-lorry-park-to-miss-brexit-day-deadline

Kent lorry park will not be ready for Brexit day after heavy rain

Weather has hampered work on site intended to relieve queues around Dover from 1 January

rain... in England ... In the autumn ... im shocked!... this couldn't possibly have been foreseen ... Macron must have a weather machine... lets nuke france

 

[Penna]

Whatever happens, rather poor & free than rich & suppressed. And then apply that to a UK without or within the EU. Yeah, propaganda is a nasty thing.

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four—
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

 

[Cheimoon]

Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four—
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.

Ha, wonderful! I did not know that poem, but I looked it up now. (Kipling - here is a link for other barbarians like me.)

I had myself been thinking of Bad Religion's Let Them Eat War (not quite on the same level, I know):

"Let them eat war, let them eat war
That's how to ration the poor
Let them eat war, let them eat war
There's an urgent need to feed declining pride"

(full lyrics)

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

 

[horsechoker]

Just the keeper (ERG) to beat now

 

[Berbasbullet]

So what kinda mitigation roughly will a deal have? In comparison to no deal?

 

[Penna]

Ha, wonderful! I did not know that poem, but I looked it up now. (Kipling - here is a link for other barbarians like me.)

I had myself been thinking of Bad Religion's Let Them Eat War (not quite on the same level, I know):

"Let them eat war, let them eat war
That's how to ration the poor
Let them eat war, let them eat war
There's an urgent need to feed declining pride"

(full lyrics)

Kipling really was a man of his time and so some of his poetry is scandalous by today's standards. However, that particular one probably stands the test of time, even though kids probably don't use copy books these days (and especially ones with wholesome maxims at the top of the pages).

 

[Cheimoon]

Kipling really was a man of his time and so some of his poetry is scandalous by today's standards. However, that particular one probably stands the test of time, even though kids probably don't use copy books these days (and especially ones with wholesome maxims at the top of the pages).

I have not actually read any Kipling yet, but yeah, somehow to read with his time's standards in mind.

Ah, books - at least so far my kids don't need to have their own phones and tablets yet, so it's still books all over the place. (But no maxims, no...)

 

[JPRouve]

This is what the EU proposed to the UK in March, where is the unilateral punishment? The following is about dispute resolution:

Article LPFS.2.52: Panel of experts

1. If, within 90 days of a request for consultations under Article LPFS.2.51 [Consultations], no mutually satisfactory resolution of the matter has been reached, a Party may request the establishment of a panel of experts to examine the matter. The request shall set out the reasons for requesting the establishment of a panel of experts, including a description of the matter at issue and indication of the relevant provision(s) of this Section that it considers applicable.

2. The Specialised Committee on the Level Playing Field and Sustainability shall, at its first meeting after the entry into force of this Agreement, establish a list of at least 15 individuals who are willing and able to serve as panellists on the panel of experts. The list shall be composed of three sub-lists: one sub-list for each Party and one sub-list of individuals that are not nationals of either Party. Each Party shall propose at least five individuals for its sub-list. The Parties shall also select at least five individuals for the sub-list of individuals that are not nationals of either Party. The chairperson of a panel of experts shall be selected from the latter list. The Specialised Committee on the Level Playing Field and Sustainability shall ensure that the list is kept up to date and that the number of experts is maintained at least at 15 individuals.

3. The individuals referred to in paragraph 2 shall have specialised knowledge of or expertise in labour or environmental law, issues addressed in this Section, or the resolution of disputes arising under international agreements and shall act independently.

4. Unless the Parties agree otherwise within five days from the date of establishment of the panel of experts, the terms of reference shall be: "to examine, in the light of the relevant provisions of the Other instruments for trade and sustainable development Section of […] Agreement, the matter referred to in the request for the establishment of the panel of experts, and to issue a report, in accordance with Article LPFS.2.52 [Panel of experts] of Title III [Level playing field and sustainability] with its findings and recommendations for the resolution of the matter".

Page 45 of 440

5. With regard to matters related to compliance with multilateral agreements and instruments referred to in this Section the opinions of external experts or information requested by the panel of experts should include information and advice from the ILO or relevant bodies or organisations established under the multilateral environmental agreements. The panel of experts shall forward such opinions, information or advice to each Party allowing them to submit their comments within 20 days of its receipt.

6. The reports of panel of experts shall set out the findings of facts, the applicability of the relevant provisions and the basic rationale behind any findings and recommendations. The Parties shall make the final report of the panel of experts available to the public within 15 days of its submission by the panel of experts.

7. The Parties shall discuss appropriate measures to be implemented taking into account the report and recommendations of the panel of experts. The Party complained against shall inform its domestic advisory group established under Article INST.7 [Domestic advisory groups] of Title I [Institutional framework] of Part Five [Institutional and horizontal provisions] of this Agreement and the other Party of its decisions on any actions or measures to be implemented no later than three months after the report has been issued to the Parties.

9. The Specialised Committee on the Level Playing Field and Sustainability shall monitor the follow-up to the report of the panel of experts and its recommendations. The domestic advisory group set up under Article INST.7 of Title I of Part Five [Institutional provisions] may submit observations to the Specialised Committee on the Level Playing Field and Sustainability in this regard.

10. Except as otherwise provided for in this Article, the provisions set out in Article INST.15 [Arbitration procedure], Article INST.28 [Lists of Arbitrators], Article INST.30 [Arbitration tribunal decisions and rulings], Article INST.18 [Compliance measures], Article INST.23 [Reasonable period of time], Article INST.20 [Compliance review], Article INST.29 [Rules of procedure], Article INST.31 [Suspension and termination], Article INST.32 [Mutually agreed solution], Article INST.33 [Time periods], Article INST.34 [Costs], as well as ANNEX INST-3 [Rules of Procedure] and ANNEX INST-4 [Code of Conduct] to Title II [Dispute settlement] of Part Five [Institutional and horizontal provisions], shall apply mutatis mutandis.

 

[MoskvaRed]

So what kinda mitigation roughly will a deal have? In comparison to no deal?

As far as I understand, access for goods but subject to customs bureaucracy. Agreement on a myriad of issues like flights so we avoid total shock therapy on 1 January.

Objectively, it’s awful (like exchanging a nice house for a bed in the homeless shelter) but, symbolically, it signifies the UK still adheres to the international rulebook and provides a base on which to expand and rebuild relations with our giant neighbour.

 

[Berbasbullet]

As far as I understand, access for goods but subject to customs bureaucracy. Agreement on a myriad of issues like flights so we avoid total shock therapy on 1 January.

Objectively, it’s awful (like exchanging a nice house for a bed in the homeless shelter) but, symbolically, it signifies the UK still adheres to the international rulebook and provides a base on which to expand and rebuild relations with our giant neighbour.

Aaah I see, thank you.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

This is what the EU proposed to the UK in March, where is the unilateral punishment? The following is about dispute resolution:

You've overlooked the relevant sections of the draft text the EU previously published. Really good legal summary here: https://www.herbertsmithfreehills.c...-of-the-future-partnership-between-the-eu-and

Key part on the "interim measures" (emphasis is mine):

However, the EU negotiating mandate requires the Commission to seek and agreement that “should uphold common high standards, and corresponding high standards over time with Union standards as a reference point”. This is taken to mean securing dynamic alignment of UK legislation with that of the EU.

In the fields of taxation, social rights, environmental protection and climate action an obligation of non-regression from existing standards is combined with a kind of ratchet mechanism. When a party increases its standard of protection it may not subsequently lower it below the level achieved by the other party. This is described in slightly varying terms in Articles in Article LPFS.2.27 and 2.28 for labour and social protection, LPFS.2.30 and 2.31 for environmental protection and Article LPFS.2.36 for climate action.

These “ratchet” provisions are a clever attempt to reconcile the demands of the EU Member States as expressed in the EU mandate with the need for balance and the impossibility of requiring the EU to follow the UK, if it were to increase its level of protection as would be necessary if a properly reciprocal obligation of dynamic alignment were to be agreed.

The UK drafts do not contain these provisions and provide only that the parties “shall strive to continue to improve such laws and policies and their underlying levels of protection” (see e.g. Article 27.2 on Trade and Labour Law and Article 28.3 on Trade and Environment in the UK draft FTA).

In the field of subsidy control, however, the EU proposes to go much further and would require the UK adopt changes to EU State aid law and policy and provides for the EU to be able to adopt appropriate “interim measures” until the UK does so (Article LPFS 2.9(1)(c)).

The UK draft avoids all references to State aid, preferring to employ the notion of subsidy as understood in the WTO Agreement, although it does propose a system of control (applicable equally to both parties) going beyond that of the WTO.

An additional feature of the EU proposal on State aid is that the EU is proposing that it (but not the UK) should be entitled, pending the outcome of a dispute settlement process, to adopt unilateral interim measures in the event that it considers that the UK has not complied with its obligations (Article LPFS.2.9).

 

[JPRouve]

You've overlooked the relevant sections of the draft text the EU previously published. Really good legal summary here: https://www.herbertsmithfreehills.c...-of-the-future-partnership-between-the-eu-and

Key part on the "interim measures" (emphasis is mine):

When the EU creates a new act that falls within the scope of state aid control it has to notify the UK in the specialised committee, the UK and the EU can request to exchange views on the implications of the new act in order to allow this section of the treaty to function properly, that exchange has to happen within 6 weeks of the request.
The specialised committee has to either add the new act to Annex LPFS-x if both sides agree or if an agreement can't be find examine all possibilites that maintain the good functioning of the state aid control section and take any decisions to that effect. Now this procedure doesn't prevent the EU from taking interim measures that in theory can only be applied if the specialised committee fails to take a decision, the UK rejects the specialised committee decision.

The second bolded paragraph is interesting because it's in relation to INST.13 and subsequent articles which applies to both sides and not just the EU, Inst.17 and INST.21 are particularly interesting because they allow the complaining side to unilaterallly suspend his obligations to any provision of the agreeement, if the respondent doesn't follow the specialised committee or arbitration tribunal decison within 6 months.