Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
x42bn6 said:
The EU will be hurt financially by the UK leaving, yes, but there is more to life than GDP and GDP per capita.

People in Europe are spending money. They are doing perfectly fine. Their growth isn't exactly fantastic, but we are living in a world where low growth is the norm (unless you are a developing nation or inflating your figures like China). There are some structural problems in the EU, yes, such as youth unemployment and Italian banks, but then again, there's structural problems everywhere in the world, including the UK (housing prices, awful productivity, London bias, etc.).

Countries like Germany and France know that there are benefits to the EU that are worth fighting for, at the expense of a little trade. In fact, it's the exact same argument made by Leave - it is worth a little economic pain to Take Back Control (TM). If they give the UK a preferential deal, they risk the cohesiveness of the EU and this may weaken the Single Market, which increases internal trade barriers, and causes losses.

The problem arises because although we have a trade deficit, the EU is significantly larger than the UK, so what may be a flesh wound to the EU may be an amputated limb to the UK. The EU's GDP is about $17t, while the UK's is about $2.8t.

Two of the largest trade bodies in Germany backed Merkel's firm stance on Brexit. This suggests that German companies are willing to accept the loss themselves. This suggests that they consider reduced trade with the UK to be the lesser evil compared with weakening the EU.

I think a lot of this is to do with the fact that believe it or not, people on the continent don't want to leave the EU. Yes, a lot of people dislike it, but that doesn't mean they want to leave. Europe suffered a lot more last century than the UK - Germany was broken in World War II, Germany and France have been rivals for centuries (maybe even over a thousand years if you want to consider the Carolingan realm collapsing), Spain was recovering from Franco (and probably still is), Eastern Europe has gained tremendously thanks to the EU... The UK's dislike of the EU is absolutely not replicated on the continent, except perhaps in parts of the Nordic nations. While "one country" is probably centuries off, there is a reason why there's basically radio silence from Europe except polite requests to trigger Article 50 - on Brexit, the EU is pretty unified on what they want.



Logistics matter. Shipping over longer distances costs money, which will add to costs. Shipping over long distance is also bad for the environment. Increasing the focus to multiple countries means complying with multiple - possibly conflicting - standards, regulation and tariffs, meaning companies must create multiple manufacturing lines and all the red tape that goes with it (like inspections and paperwork). Shipping over long distances also takes longer, which means that more-perishable goods cannot be shipped and the time delay between "shipped" and "received" complicates accounting. Shipping over longer distances has a security component too - sea travel has piracy and rough seas, but the Channel is calm and jointly-monitored. Air travel places additional restrictions on freight.

One thing that is easier to do globally is services, but here, the barrier is regulatory differences, not tariffs. In other words, it is best if two countries have the same regulatory standards to maximise the services economy. But that would mean a loss of sovereignty because it means putting some of the UK's laws under another country's influence, if not control.

Services are the future of the world, especially in the UK as a developed economy. We should be working to normalise regulations across the world to maximise our economy, but there is no way we can do that alone - we need to be part of a stronger bloc with a bigger hammer. The EU is deadlocked with the US on a deal that barely scratches the surface in this area. The UK wouldn't stand a chance alone.
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Reduced trade isn't the lesser of two evils though is it? It is the worst of the two possible outcomes post Brexit. The workers inside the EU who lose their jobs because the EU chooses the worst possible outcome won't be happy that the powers that be decided to sacrifice their livelihoods to prove a point. They don't know who they are yet, or what the EU plans are for them. After the UK triggers article 50 it is going to be spelled out in detail and then we will see where we are.

The cherry picking, leaning over backwards, why should we make a special case type rhetoric while seductive to the reactionaries is a complete lie. It is indisputably in the people in the EU's best interests to continue trade as close as possible to current levels with the UK, they benefit to the tune of 68 billion pounds per year from it.

In this very peculiar case the EU can't serve itself and the people who live in it. You might be right in your argument about how this all goes but I hope you are wrong. Either way its a phoney war at the moment.
 
sullydnl said:
I get irritated by people who say things like "Brexiters only voted that way because they're racist xenophobes" for the same reason I disagreed with much of the brexit campaign itself: It's anti-fact.

There are plenty of logical and reasonable grounds to criticise them on without indulging in random bits of unsupported truthiness.

Also, being called a moaner isn't quite as bad as being called a racist xenophobe. Maintaining a bit of perspective doesn't hurt.
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I am only saying that its totally cool for Brexiteers to call remainers remoaners but its not cool to call leaver ignorant despite the fact that they insist in not listening to experts or reason. Same thing about xenophobia (not racism). Immigration had been the major point about Brexit and hate crimes against foreign people had exploded in this country following Brexit. Yet god forbid calling Brexiteers xenophobic

It fascinates me how they keep insulting others into submission when they do seem to be quite a sensitive lot. Maybe they want to cherry pick who can get insulted and how to do so too?
 
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Don't Kill Bill said:
Are you are still in the UK?
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Till now yes. Luckily both my wife and myself can move back home or to another country at a moment's notice. We're probably better off in our country too but we do not like family being so close (the typical South European families are pretty sticky) + missus just love London
 
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Don't Kill Bill said:
Reduced trade isn't the lesser of two evils though is it? It is the worst of the two possible outcomes post Brexit. The workers inside the EU who lose their jobs because the EU chooses the worst possible outcome won't be happy that the powers that be decided to sacrifice their livelihoods to prove a point. They don't know who they are yet, or what the EU plans are for them. After the UK triggers article 50 it is going to be spelled out in detail and then we will see where we are.

The cherry picking, leaning over backwards, why should we make a special case type rhetoric while seductive to the reactionaries is a complete lie. It is indisputably in the people in the EU's best interests to continue trade as close as possible to current levels with the UK, they benefit to the tune of 68 billion pounds per year from it.

In this very peculiar case the EU can't serve itself and the people who live in it. You might be right in your argument about how this all goes but I hope you are wrong. Either way its a phoney war at the moment.
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Some business will be lost. Other business will be gained. If the EU can take a chunk of the UK financial services and its automobile industry then it can compensate for the loss elsewhere. Not to forget CETA who will probably be signed by any moment now hopefully that will compensate to such loss

Brexit will hurt everybody in short term. However it would be ridiculous to expect that that a country which is not in the group to get unrestricted access in the markets of that group. If that was to happen then I guess it would be for a bigger/richer/more relevant market than the UK (US?). Not to forget that for the UK to make a trade deal with the EU then all countries must give their go ahead. There are many countries in the EU who barely sell in the UK market. Most of whom see the UK as a competitor (ie automobile sector) or/and value their freedom of movement. Why would they vote for something that is not in their interest?

Also there's a question about the pound. If it keeps crushing to the ground then I doubt many in the UK would be able to afford BMWs either way
 
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sullydnl said:
I get irritated by people who say things like "Brexiters only voted that way because they're racist xenophobes" for the same reason I disagreed with much of the brexit campaign itself: It's anti-fact.

There are plenty of logical and reasonable grounds to criticise them on without indulging in random bits of unsupported truthiness.

Also, being called a moaner isn't quite as bad as being called a racist xenophobe. Maintaining a bit of perspective doesn't hurt.
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Whether it is true or not, this is the image of Britain that is being projected through their government, tabloids, comments etc.
The government and tabloids like the Mail, Express and Sun have manipulated the people who are not sufficiently informed and pandered to what these people want to believe. It has brought the worst out in people.
 
We simply don't know what forces will be unleashed by this Brexit. I'm not in a hurry to find out either.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Whether it is true or not, this is the image of Britain that is being projected through their government, tabloids, comments etc.
The government and tabloids like the Mail, Express and Sun have manipulated the people who are not sufficiently informed and pandered to what these people want to believe. It has brought the worst out in people.
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What were the biggest selling newspapers in the 70s? Were they misinforming people before the EU referendum then? You're an old man, you should remember ;)
 
devilish said:
There are many countries in the EU who barely sell in the UK market. Most of whom see the UK as a competitor (ie automobile sector) or/and value their freedom of movement
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Exactly, why should a country pay full price to deal with non trade countries?

If you can afford a bmw now you can afford it at a higher price
 
Stanley Road said:
Exactly, why should a country pay full price to deal with non trade countries?

If you can afford a bmw now you can afford it at a higher price
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Unfortunately for the UK it will have to deal with each and every country in the EU as deals are done in a collective manner and every country has the right to veto it. These countries will make sure that the deal works for them. So if a country doesn't sell in the UK and relies heavily on freedom of movement then I cant see them settle for a deal that doesn't involve freedom of movement.

I agree with the latter part
 
Stanley Road said:
What were the biggest selling newspapers in the 70s? Were they misinforming people before the EU referendum then? You're an old man, you should remember ;)
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Don't remember the Mail and Express being like they are now. The UK were in a desperate situation in the 70s and the EEC was a very good thing for the UK. I was very young then and was so happy when the UK joined. The referendum was the first thing I voted in after the October 1974 General election (the only time I voted Labour) with a clear majority in favour. The surviving people who voted then are now the older generation that have mainly voted against the EU now.
As an "old" man now and having voted Conservative most of my life I don't fit into the category of old Conservative voters. Perhaps because I have had more experience of life outside the insular mentality of older Brits
 
Uuurgh, i am having dialogue with a tory, shoot me someone

At the end of the day you are responsible by proxy for uk leaving
 
Stanley Road said:
Exactly and to compensate for that tariff you will ask for discount on large purchases, we give up to 50% on our products and we sell globally.
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The UK will still end up paying more as they will already get a volume discount.
 
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...ter-brexit-lawyer-tells-germans-a3380136.html

Has this been here? It had quite an impact on the community of German expats in London that I happen to have some connection with, a lot of people are reporting similar issues.
A friend of mine got insulted multiple times for speaking her language while on the phone, hearing things like "Go home" and stuff like that. We are talking London here. Of course, someone actually apologized when he realized she was German, because that's okay then.

Don't have doubts folks, people are leaving. Probably half of the expats I know in London are actively searching for a new job back home.
 
fcbforever said:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...ter-brexit-lawyer-tells-germans-a3380136.html

Has this been here? It had quite an impact on the community of German expats in London that I happen to have some connection with, a lot of people are reporting similar issues.
A friend of mine got insulted multiple times for speaking her language while on the phone, hearing things like "Go home" and stuff like that. We are talking London here. Of course, someone actually apologized when he realized she was German, because that's okay then.

Don't have doubts folks, people are leaving. Probably half of the expats I know in London are actively searching for a new job back home.
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Have they decided which nationalities are acceptable and which are not?
But you know this is a figment of your imagination.

Assuming it is alright for the British tourists to go abroad and speak only English and if the person they are talking to doesn't understand them (which they jolly well should:rolleyes:) they just increase the volume as if this will help. So proud to be British.
 
fcbforever said:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...ter-brexit-lawyer-tells-germans-a3380136.html

Has this been here? It had quite an impact on the community of German expats in London that I happen to have some connection with, a lot of people are reporting similar issues.
A friend of mine got insulted multiple times for speaking her language while on the phone, hearing things like "Go home" and stuff like that. We are talking London here. Of course, someone actually apologized when he realized she was German, because that's okay then.

Don't have doubts folks, people are leaving. Probably half of the expats I know in London are actively searching for a new job back home.
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It's not just the expats, my brother in law and family are in the Netherlands this weekend scoping a new home and negotiating the final bits of his new job, he's a Dr of chemistry and patent lawyer. I've already got an agreement in places with my bosses that if the country does go to shit I can decamp to France, Belgium or the NL. I'm sure there's plenty in finance in London also weighing up their options on the continent in the event of a hard Brexit. What I'm less confident about is that the government will be calculating Britain's future economic success outside of the EU with the large hole in the tax coffers the departing expats, bankers and others will leave especially when you consider that the tax bills of most of those leaving are well in excess of the UK average household income and that's before you even factor in the trickle down effect these families' spending has on the economy as a whole.

Would any of the intelligent Brexiteers here with serious political reasons behind their desire to leave the EU deny that one of the most noticeable results of the June referendum was to tacitly legitimise the vicious, overtly xenophobic voices of the idiot minority that populate this island leading them to believe they personally have the right to pick and choose who lives here? Can you seriously deny that the result has left the UK a far more unpleasant place to be or that the financial consequences of the companies and people who leave because of the Brexit will add even greater discomfort to those who struggle most to make a living here?
 
Bury Red said:
Would any of the intelligent Brexiteers here with serious political reasons behind their desire to leave the EU deny that one of the most noticeable results of the June referendum was to tacitly legitimise the vicious, overtly xenophobic voices of the idiot minority that populate this island leading them to believe they personally have the right to pick and choose who lives here? Can you seriously deny that the result has left the UK a far more unpleasant place to be or that the financial consequences of the companies and people who leave because of the Brexit will add even greater discomfort to those who struggle most to make a living here?
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There are a lot of extremely unpleasant people in the uk with or without a referendum. I used to hate going back to Woking and going out on the weekend as scumbags were fighting all over the streets by 9PM

I have not witnessed a punch up here in nearly 20 years.........oops tell a lie, there can sometimes be agro in the Irish pubs that are frequented by Brits.
 
Stanley Road said:
There are a lot of extremely unpleasant people in the uk with or without a referendum. I used to hate going back to Woking and going out on the weekend as scumbags were fighting all over the streets by 9PM

I have not witnessed a punch up here in nearly 20 years.........oops tell a lie, there can sometimes be agro in the Irish pubs that are frequented by Brits.
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That's not an answer to his question.
 
Bury Red said:
Would any of the intelligent Brexiteers here with serious political reasons behind their desire to leave the EU deny that one of the most noticeable results of the June referendum was to tacitly legitimise the vicious, overtly xenophobic voices of the idiot minority that populate this island leading them to believe they personally have the right to pick and choose who lives here?
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Yes, although most of the reason it's more noticeable is because it's just more reported on. Because it fits a certain narrative.

You can't legislate for how the Jeremy Kyle class might interpret the results of a referendum. Voting leave doesn't legitimise hostility or intolerance, except in the minds of those who have no mental capacity to begin with.

Then again, if you're a Remainer and engage the arguments for and against Brexit as if you're talking solely to that very tiny minority of scum, you can't complain when the quiet but vast majority take umbrage.
 
hobbers said:
Yes, although most of the reason it's more noticeable is because it's just more reported on. Because it fits a certain narrative.

You can't legislate for how the Jeremy Kyle class might interpret the results of a referendum. Voting leave doesn't legitimise hostility or intolerance, except in the minds of those who have no mental capacity to begin with.

Then again, if you're a Remainer and engage the arguments for and against Brexit as if you're talking solely to that very tiny minority of scum, you can't complain when the quiet but vast majority take umbrage.
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Except that theres been an actual recorded increase in hate crime which just blows that line of thinking out of the water.
 
Stanley Road said:
Doesn't say much

Reported and actual increases are different
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Solid head in the sand moment yet again. AFAIK, you don't even live in the UK, so what do you base your expert opinions on?

I live in a Remain area and even here I've heard a few weird comments and offhand mentions of the kind I'd never would have before the poisonous environment this referendum ushered in.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Except that theres been an actual recorded increase in hate crime which just blows that line of thinking out of the water.
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I clearly didn't say there wasn't an increase.

But likewise it's more prevalent in the media therefore people are also more likely to report it.
 
Rightnr said:
Solid head in the sand moment yet again. AFAIK, you don't even live in the UK, so what do you base your expert opinions on?

I live in a Remain area and even here I've heard a few weird comments and offhand mentions of the kind I'd never would have before the poisonous environment this referendum ushered in.
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Tosh

They were reported as fights in the old days but now they have a new label.

I live in a country where the PM recently told unruly Turks to "Fukk off back to your own country" on national tv.

So you can think all you like about hate crime but i doubt its anything like the crazy days of the NF
 
x42bn6 said:
The EU will be hurt financially by the UK leaving, yes, but there is more to life than GDP and GDP per capita.

People in Europe are spending money. They are doing perfectly fine. Their growth isn't exactly fantastic, but we are living in a world where low growth is the norm (unless you are a developing nation or inflating your figures like China). There are some structural problems in the EU, yes, such as youth unemployment and Italian banks, but then again, there's structural problems everywhere in the world, including the UK (housing prices, awful productivity, London bias, etc.).

Countries like Germany and France know that there are benefits to the EU that are worth fighting for, at the expense of a little trade. In fact, it's the exact same argument made by Leave - it is worth a little economic pain to Take Back Control (TM). If they give the UK a preferential deal, they risk the cohesiveness of the EU and this may weaken the Single Market, which increases internal trade barriers, and causes losses.

The problem arises because although we have a trade deficit, the EU is significantly larger than the UK, so what may be a flesh wound to the EU may be an amputated limb to the UK. The EU's GDP is about $17t, while the UK's is about $2.8t.

Two of the largest trade bodies in Germany backed Merkel's firm stance on Brexit. This suggests that German companies are willing to accept the loss themselves. This suggests that they consider reduced trade with the UK to be the lesser evil compared with weakening the EU.

I think a lot of this is to do with the fact that believe it or not, people on the continent don't want to leave the EU. Yes, a lot of people dislike it, but that doesn't mean they want to leave. Europe suffered a lot more last century than the UK - Germany was broken in World War II, Germany and France have been rivals for centuries (maybe even over a thousand years if you want to consider the Carolingan realm collapsing), Spain was recovering from Franco (and probably still is), Eastern Europe has gained tremendously thanks to the EU... The UK's dislike of the EU is absolutely not replicated on the continent, except perhaps in parts of the Nordic nations. While "one country" is probably centuries off, there is a reason why there's basically radio silence from Europe except polite requests to trigger Article 50 - on Brexit, the EU is pretty unified on what they want.



Logistics matter. Shipping over longer distances costs money, which will add to costs. Shipping over long distance is also bad for the environment. Increasing the focus to multiple countries means complying with multiple - possibly conflicting - standards, regulation and tariffs, meaning companies must create multiple manufacturing lines and all the red tape that goes with it (like inspections and paperwork). Shipping over long distances also takes longer, which means that more-perishable goods cannot be shipped and the time delay between "shipped" and "received" complicates accounting. Shipping over longer distances has a security component too - sea travel has piracy and rough seas, but the Channel is calm and jointly-monitored. Air travel places additional restrictions on freight.

One thing that is easier to do globally is services, but here, the barrier is regulatory differences, not tariffs. In other words, it is best if two countries have the same regulatory standards to maximise the services economy. But that would mean a loss of sovereignty because it means putting some of the UK's laws under another country's influence, if not control.

Services are the future of the world, especially in the UK as a developed economy. We should be working to normalise regulations across the world to maximise our economy, but there is no way we can do that alone - we need to be part of a stronger bloc with a bigger hammer. The EU is deadlocked with the US on a deal that barely scratches the surface in this area. The UK wouldn't stand a chance alone.
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Stanley Road said:
we see things differently
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:lol: The difference in complexity of the remain and leave arguments, summarised in one exchange.
 
Rightnr said:
Solid head in the sand moment yet again. AFAIK, you don't even live in the UK, so what do you base your expert opinions on?

I live in a Remain area and even here I've heard a few weird comments and offhand mentions of the kind I'd never would have before the poisonous environment this referendum ushered in.
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Don't bother with him, I've yet to read a post with substance from him in this thread. It mostly goes like that:
"There has been an increase in hate crime in Britain since the referendum."
"Well, there have always been unpleasent people, Referendum or not."
"But this increase is actually recorded"
"Tosh, it was far worse in the old days"
or:
"My industrial sector is struggling because of Brexit and my job is at risk."
"Shit happens, I've lost my job 5 times already, just move on."

Add his favorite "All politicians are liars" line and when someone gives a detailed post to counter his 'arguments' he barely answers with a 'we see things differently' answer if not at all.
 
So the NHS is still fecked for the foreseeable future despite the supposed 350M a week that Brexit is supposed to deliver? I remember seeing somewhere the age bias in remain/leave factions with the older generation voting overwhelmingly to leave. Now these are the same people who still have to contend with reduced access to healthcare and longer waiting lists. Time and again it gets proven that people overwhelmingly vote against their own interests.
 
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