Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Untied said:
Click to expand...


I'd love to know who made this decision, its so incredibly petty that it points to it being May. I don't think anyone else would dare, its just unnecessary bad publicity. Is it a warning to others to add pressure? That has even worse implications.

May didn't even fecking want Brexit and yet its suddenly turned into anyone voicing against it being treated as a traitor. She's a scary woman give her an objective and she'll do anything to achieve it.
 
Smores said:
Its not going to be avalanche on the first day out of the EU either, it'll take a number of years for the effects to be felt i imagine. Death by a thousand cuts.
Click to expand...

A lot will depend on the deal they reach of course, but I'd expect a huge shock on the first day particularly for small businesses. The big companies will been running detailed analysis and making contingency plans, but small businesses that rely on EU trade might well not have the resources or ability to prepare themselves, especially if we suddenly start seeing huge customs delays, with the aftershocks that would send through the system.
 
redshaw said:
Not really.

Probably been covered but the pound dropping was in effect pulling the plug on the Opel/Vauxhall life support.

With 16 consecutive years of losses amounting to about 15 billion this was due to happen.

A year before Brexit, GM said it hoped to break even for 2016. They rely heavily on the UK Vauxhall market and very strong pound as it was then and has been for so long to make the numbers up and reduce the losses or try to break even.

With the pound looking to be this way for a few years and the long Brexit talks they had no choice but to cut loose.

About the jobs, I'm not that confident but it depends on the tariffs and parts situation. Also Peugeot used to have factories in the UK ten years ago but shut them down to save French jobs. Being in the EU didn't help us with the French. Peugeot is part owned by France and I'm sure things will switch over to the EU eventually unless it's worth it if tariffs are big.

Then you've got the issue with what Opel Vauxhall turn into. Ford and Vauxhall have been the staple of UK car market. If this becomes just another French car then it could possible slip away as an important UK brand and become a smaller euro import. Spain and France have high unemployment as well.

The UK plants are said to ship 80% back to the EU. If we leave the EU then it doesn't look good unless the UK market is enough on its own to keep the factories here. I just don't see it staying an important brand but who knows, GM blocked selling Opel Vauxhall outside europe, Peugeot could try to market the Vauxhall brand worldwide and do well.
Click to expand...
Apparently, on French radio they were saying that the jobs would go to France and Spain/Germany within 3 years.
 
At the moment the UK and the EU seem to be in a game of "chicken". If it turns into a game of Russian Roulette, so somebody please remind Boris that if you survive the first pull of the trigger, you pass the gun to the other guy.
 
Last edited:
Paul the Wolf said:
But countries are still on the way up 9 years later and so were the UK, the UK weren't on the way down until the vote.

If there is a recession then everyone will suffer, the UK, the EU, the USA etc. So whether the UK is in the EU or not they will suffer the effects of a recession. Then on top of that you add the effects of leaving the EU- double whammy
Click to expand...

I must have missed that, was it in the news?
 
Whatever the short term pain after BREXIT, I'll put my money on the UK surviving a lot longer than the EU in its current state and mindset.

What was a good idea for free trade has become a nightmare of bureaucracy, waste, unaccountability and corruption.

In the same way as was the USSR - a forced and ungovernable collection of different cultures, languages, economies, resources, and regional alliances and distrusts which a bunch of idealogues tried to govern from Moscow with no idea of the reality of real life outside of Moscow and were only able to hold together with an autocratic dictatorship and centralised economic planning.

On the other hand, the USSR did at least have a pretence at democracy which is something the Commissars in Brussels either daren't risk introducing or simply just don't believe in. But ask Russian citizens and citizens of former Russian States whether they preferred the old Soviet lifestyle, or their current lifestyle - the overwhelming majority will tell you that their lives are much better today than when Moscow decided what was best for Russia, Armenia, Estonia, Uzbekistan, etc, etc.

In the end, the USSR collapsed almost overnight because it was too big and too diverse to govern democratically, and if the EU doesn't reform, and reform in a big way, it will simply go the way of the USSR and implode - and better to be on the outside looking on than on the inside trying to get out when it happens.
 
Full bodied red said:
Whatever the short term pain after BREXIT, I'll put my money on the UK surviving a lot longer than the EU in its current state and mindset.

What was a good idea for free trade has become a nightmare of bureaucracy, waste, unaccountability and corruption.

In the same way as was the USSR - a forced and ungovernable collection of different cultures, languages, economies, resources, and regional alliances and distrusts which a bunch of idealogues tried to govern from Moscow with no idea of the reality of real life outside of Moscow and were only able to hold together with an autocratic dictatorship and centralised economic planning.

On the other hand, the USSR did at least have a pretence at democracy which is something the Commissars in Brussels either daren't risk introducing or simply just don't believe in. But ask Russian citizens and citizens of former Russian States whether they preferred the old Soviet lifestyle, or their current lifestyle - the overwhelming majority will tell you that their lives are much better today than when Moscow decided what was best for Russia, Armenia, Estonia, Uzbekistan, etc, etc.

In the end, the USSR collapsed almost overnight because it was too big and too diverse to govern democratically, and if the EU doesn't reform, and reform in a big way, it will simply go the way of the USSR and implode - and better to be on the outside looking on than on the inside trying to get out when it happens.
Click to expand...

You are comparing a communist dictatorship, which had a "pretence at democracy", first time I've heard that, with the EU. Communism , fascism and nationalism don't work.
Presume the USA having 50 states makes it too big to govern as well.
 
Full bodied red said:
Whatever the short term pain after BREXIT, I'll put my money on the UK surviving a lot longer than the EU in its current state and mindset.
Click to expand...

This is why bookmakers drive better cars than the rest of us.

What was a good idea for free trade has become a nightmare of bureaucracy, waste, unaccountability and corruption.
Click to expand...

You plainly haven't experienced a world where protectionism was the norm.

In the same way as was the USSR - a forced and ungovernable collection of different cultures, languages, economies, resources, and regional alliances and distrusts which a bunch of idealogues tried to govern from Moscow with no idea of the reality of real life outside of Moscow and were only able to hold together with an autocratic dictatorship and centralised economic planning.

On the other hand, the USSR did at least have a pretence at democracy which is something the Commissars in Brussels either daren't risk introducing or simply just don't believe in. But ask Russian citizens and citizens of former Russian States whether they preferred the old Soviet lifestyle, or their current lifestyle - the overwhelming majority will tell you that their lives are much better today than when Moscow decided what was best for Russia, Armenia, Estonia, Uzbekistan, etc, etc.

In the end, the USSR collapsed almost overnight because it was too big and too diverse to govern democratically, and if the EU doesn't reform, and reform in a big way, it will simply go the way of the USSR and implode - and better to be on the outside looking on than on the inside trying to get out when it happens.
Click to expand...

I feel stupider for reading that. Are you really comparing the fall of the communist block with the EU? (A: You are. I just can't believe it)
 
Paul the Wolf said:
You are comparing a communist dictatorship, which had a "pretence at democracy", first time I've heard that, with the EU. Communism , fascism and nationalism don't work.
Presume the USA having 50 states makes it too big to govern as well.
Click to expand...
The previous post is usually the type expressed by the EUSSR brigade. While some of the points raised about the difficulties and practicalities of running a union of 28 nation states as one unit are legitimate, it's totally off the wall to think it's a dictatorship.

Ironically, it's the similar to mistake the communists made in the thirties - that there was no difference between living in a capitalist Europe and living in a Nazi Europe.
 
You are comparing a communist dictatorship, which had a "pretence at democracy", first time I've heard that, with the EU. Communism , fascism and nationalism don't work.
Presume the USA having 50 states makes it too big to govern as well.

The good citizens of the USA elect their President every four years. I don't recall being allowed to vote for President Tusk or any of the other three people who call themselves President within the EU's current structure - maybe you were....

All Government ministers here in France and in the UK are elected by the countries' citizens as MPs before being appointed as ministers. I don't recall any of the EU Commissioners ever being elected by the EU's citizens before being appointed as Commissioners.

You might not call that a dictatorship - I reckon it's pretty damn close to a dictatorship and no different to the pretence at democracy that existed in the USSR.

You plainly haven't experienced a world where protectionism was the norm.

Bolleaux - The EU operates and controls the most protectionist trading bloc in the Free World.
 
jackofalltrades said:
The previous post is usually the type expressed by the EUSSR brigade. While some of the points raised about the difficulties and practicalities of running a union of 28 nation states as one unit are legitimate, it's totally off the wall to think it's a dictatorship.

Ironically, it's the similar to mistake the communists made in the thirties - that there was no difference between living in a capitalist Europe and living in a Nazi Europe.
Click to expand...

All laws are made by the EU, we want our sovereignty back etc ad nauseum . The UK itself comprised of 4 nations looks more likely to split up than the EU at this moment.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
All laws are made by the EU, we want our sovereignty back etc ad nauseum . The UK itself comprised of 4 nations looks more likely to split up than the EU at this moment.
Click to expand...

Might not be such a bad thing for those that don't want to stay in the UK.

As often said - if the Scots really want independence, they ought to insist that the English, Welsh and Irish are allowed to join in a Scottish Independence vote.

Their independence would then be almost guaranteed.
 
Full bodied red said:
As often said - if the Scots really want independence, they ought to insist that the English, Welsh and Irish are allowed to join in a Scottish Independence vote.

Their independence would then be almost guaranteed.
Click to expand...

true... im still wondering what might happen if the scotts do vote for independence but the boarder region or say the shetlands vote overwhelmingly to stay in the UK... surely they than argue the SNP is dragging them out of a union against their will etc
 
Has any Brexiter ever explained their feelings on the fact their Govt has always had controls on immigration from outside the EU and never put any controls in place? Which (coincidently to me a least) usually contains the people they claim are destroying their wages/culture etc.
 
Minimalist said:
Has any Brexiter ever explained their feelings on the fact their Govt has always had controls on immigration from outside the EU and never put any controls in place? Which (coincidently to me a least) usually contains the people they claim are destroying their wages/culture etc.
Click to expand...
No controls in place you say... well besides having to earn a certain amount of money - or only able to work in certain sectors, not able to bring partners and children with you unless you earn a certain amount... english language requirements and that kind of stuff?
 
sun_tzu said:
No controls in place you say... well besides having to earn a certain amount of money - or only able to work in certain sectors, not able to bring partners and children with you unless you earn a certain amount... english language requirements and that kind of stuff?
Click to expand...
Sorry I'm off the mark there. I was more thinking that there is no quota. Also is it not true the majority of immigration comes from these place outside the EU? (I've read that a few times I'm sure)
 
Minimalist said:
Sorry I'm off the mark there. I was more thinking that there is no quota. Also is it not true the majority of immigration comes from these place outside the EU? (I've read that a few times I'm sure)
Click to expand...

I think its about 50-50. They also don't mention that an estimated 1 in 10 Brits also live in other countries.
 
Kentonio said:
I think its about 50-50. They also don't mention that an estimated 1 in 10 Brits also live in other countries.
Click to expand...

1 in 10 ?

I've no idea the actual number ( I'm one, of course ) but 1 in 10 would be about 6 million, which sounds a lot to me as the UK Government said it's only about 1.5 million permanently resident inside the other EU countries....
 
Full bodied red said:
1 in 10 ?

I've no idea the actual number ( I'm one, of course ) but 1 in 10 would be about 6 million, which sounds a lot to me as the UK Government said it's only about 1.5 million permanently resident inside the other EU countries....
Click to expand...

It's slightly less apparently, around the 5 million mark (as of 2013).

1.3m in Australia
750k in the US
675k in Canada
315k to NZ
300k to South Africa

Then add in all the Brits in the EU countries, and all the other countries where we are in smaller numbers, and it quickly adds up.
 
WOW.....

But presumably those in the list above had to pass fairly strict rules for permanent immigration / residence, so the numbers which are in the EU and are currently subject of the BREXIT debate / blackmail is more or less the 1.5 million as the Government have indicated ?

So it's 1.5 million v how many EU nationals in the UK - 2.5 million ??

My own position is my wife and myself have been living here for almost 30 years and have a Carte de Sejour from the French Government first issued in 1985, but I'm still legally UK resident as far as UK Income Tax / NHI goes, so BREXIT won't impact us too much - all that would change is that we'll have to increase the levels of our Private Medical Insurance to replace the P111 if the shit hits the fan. And I suppose that this would be the same for most of the UK nationals currently in EU countries apart from the casual barmen and timeshare hustlers in Marbella, Crete, etc....
 
Minimalist said:
Sorry I'm off the mark there. I was more thinking that there is no quota. Also is it not true the majority of immigration comes from these place outside the EU? (I've read that a few times I'm sure)
Click to expand...

Its much harder to migrate into the country from outside the EU, in fact due to the numbers that come from the EU its made even harder for the non EU migrants. Most that come from outside the EU have to meet very strict criteria. There isn't a hard quota but visas are controlled.
 
Full bodied red said:
WOW.....

But presumably those in the list above had to pass fairly strict rules for permanent immigration / residence, so the numbers which are in the EU and are currently subject of the BREXIT debate / blackmail is more or less the 1.5 million as the Government have indicated ?

So it's 1.5 million v how many EU nationals in the UK - 2.5 million ??

My own position is my wife and myself have been living here for almost 30 years and have a Carte de Sejour from the French Government first issued in 1985, but I'm still legally UK resident as far as UK Income Tax / NHI goes, so BREXIT won't impact us too much - all that would change is that we'll have to increase the levels of our Private Medical Insurance to replace the P111 if the shit hits the fan. And I suppose that this would be the same for most of the UK nationals currently in EU countries apart from the casual barmen and timeshare hustlers in Marbella, Crete, etc....
Click to expand...
With the exception of the US, all those listed by Kentonio would generally be easier to get into than the UK provided you'd got a job lined up which usually means at least degree level qualifications and some experience in a desirable profession. Once you're in obtaining permanent status is usually no more than a case of time served and a bit of paperwork. In Hong Kong I left one work visa shy of the 7 years required to apply for permanent residence there whilst in Singapore we could have applied after 3 years and would have just needed to pass a fairly straightforward test on the country, system and culture. Most of our guys that worked down in Oz applied for PR after a couple of years and NZ is similar. South Africa needs you to have lived and worked there 5 years to apply, Canada will let you apply straight away.
 
Full bodied red said:
WOW.....

But presumably those in the list above had to pass fairly strict rules for permanent immigration / residence, so the numbers which are in the EU and are currently subject of the BREXIT debate / blackmail is more or less the 1.5 million as the Government have indicated ?

So it's 1.5 million v how many EU nationals in the UK - 2.5 million ??

My own position is my wife and myself have been living here for almost 30 years and have a Carte de Sejour from the French Government first issued in 1985, but I'm still legally UK resident as far as UK Income Tax / NHI goes, so BREXIT won't impact us too much - all that would change is that we'll have to increase the levels of our Private Medical Insurance to replace the P111 if the shit hits the fan. And I suppose that this would be the same for most of the UK nationals currently in EU countries apart from the casual barmen and timeshare hustlers in Marbella, Crete, etc....
Click to expand...

Do you spend less than 6 months in France then and spend more than 6 months in the UK?
You only pay your tax and NI in the UK and still on P111 status.

Presume you intend to stay in France for good?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-imports-scam-say-eu-anti-fraud-investigators

Just as well that the UK's customs will be able to cope with the double of their workload should it revert to WTO rules and leave the single market
Click to expand...

"It will all be solved by technology" - literally the white paper's answer

YxiKPKM.png
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Do you spend less than 6 months in France then and spend more than 6 months in the UK?
You only pay your tax and NI in the UK and still on P111 status.

Presume you intend to stay in France for good?
Click to expand...

All a bit complicated - we have houses in the UK, in Germany and here. Now I'm retired we spend most of our time here, but don't have any salary based pensions from French companies or State Pension from the French Government, and the taxes I pay in the UK are more than enough to avoid having to pay any additional tax here.

When I first came here, I was working for a Swiss owned German company, but worked 100% here in France. It was all a bit complicated tax-wise, so I just stayed UK resident but then never actually got round to changing it to France or Germany or Switzerland. I paid some tax in Germany, some here and the balance in the UK.

The last 15 years or so before I retired I was working for a French company ( which I partly owned with French partners ) in West Africa and paid some taxes here and some in the UK. Paying taxes in the UK provides me with my P111 - not just to use here, but everywhere else in the EU, one of the very few benefits that the UK being a member of the EU has come up with for me personally, although like lots of other people, we've always had additional, supplementary medical insurance for use in France only. After BREXIT, that will most likely have to change to cover treatment outside of France as we don't qualify for the French equivalent of the P111 as we've never been Permanent Resident and Tax Resident here.

Stay here for good ? Well, this has been 'home' for 30-odd years and will always be home irrespective of which house we're spending time in during any particular week or month - last year, in total, was about 8 months here and a couple of months each in the UK and Germany. Not for tax reasons, just that our children live in the UK and my wife's family all live in Germany.
 
Wibble said:
Someone else leaving within such a long timeframe, especially a basketcase like Italy or (even more so) Greece, won't change the EU to the extent suggested.
Click to expand...

You sure ?

If Greece and Italy left this morning, probably the first thing they'd do is default on their debts because the ECB would no longer provide them with loans, and which for the ECB alone would then mean having to write-off almost €500 billion.

Which is precisely why the ECB continues to provide funds to Italy and Geece - lend them another €5 billion due for repayment in 2035, €1 billion of which vanishes into the basketcase economies, and €4 billion ( or less than 1%) is used to repay previous loans maturing in 2017. That way, the ECB can say that Italy and Greece are actually repaying their loans, so no need for the ECB to write-off the €500 billion just yet....Yeah, sure !

In 1966, Milton Stoddard Eccles, former Chairman of the Federal reserve, wrote -

The United States economy is like a poker game where the chips have become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, and where the other fellows can stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit runs out the game will stop

You can't see the similarities with the Eurozone in 2017 ??

And what the implictions will be for the whole EU itself when the game stops ??
 
Untied said:
"It will all be solved by technology" - literally the white paper's answer
YxiKPKM.png
Click to expand...
The new official policy "we'll have an open mind" (Them of all people, ffs :lol:). I am really starting to believe that they've begun falling for their own lies.
Economy? We'll trade with everybody, which is much better then just trading with the EU!
Pound down? It hugely improves the competitiveness of the UK workforce.
Public funding? It's not a matter of money...
 
Full bodied red said:
In 1966, Milton Stoddard Eccles, former Chairman of the Federal reserve, wrote -

The United States economy is like a poker game where the chips have become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, and where the other fellows can stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit runs out the game will stop
Click to expand...

The amount of poker chips in play keeps increasing though... But even if that analogy were fitting, would you say any major redistribution has taken place in the U.S since 1966? If not, does that signal that the Euro might go on another 40 odd years?
 
Full bodied red said:
You sure ?

If Greece and Italy left this morning, probably the first thing they'd do is default on their debts because the ECB would no longer provide them with loans, and which for the ECB alone would then mean having to write-off almost €500 billion.

Which is precisely why the ECB continues to provide funds to Italy and Geece - lend them another €5 billion due for repayment in 2035, €1 billion of which vanishes into the basketcase economies, and €4 billion ( or less than 1%) is used to repay previous loans maturing in 2017. That way, the ECB can say that Italy and Greece are actually repaying their loans, so no need for the ECB to write-off the €500 billion just yet....Yeah, sure !

In 1966, Milton Stoddard Eccles, former Chairman of the Federal reserve, wrote -

The United States economy is like a poker game where the chips have become concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, and where the other fellows can stay in the game only by borrowing. When their credit runs out the game will stop

You can't see the similarities with the Eurozone in 2017 ??

And what the implictions will be for the whole EU itself when the game stops ??
Click to expand...

By 2025 not tommorrow. And defaulting on debt after leaving would cause retaliation that neither economy wiuld survive.

And the whole game won't stop. No other solvent country would be as stupid as the UK.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.