Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[jackofalltrades]

I think you're spot on there. Both the EU and the UK are moving into unchartered territory

Can the UK prosper without open access to the Single Market ? It'll certainly survive, but prosper ?

Can the EU contunue unchanged without the UK's financial contributions and its ability to find jobs for other EU citizens ? It's probably only after BREXIT that the EU will start to appreciate what the UK actually has contributed even though it has always seen as the problem child.

So you'd think it would be fairly easy for the politicos on both sides to identify their own needs after BREXIT and then focus, firstly, on finding a solution to those. Instead they're already posturing and bitching about whether the UK should pay MEPs and EU staffers' pensions after BREXIT or whether the EU should compensate the UK for what it contributed to the various EU real estate that it's bought over the years. Already arguing about things like this, that in the grand scheme of things are no bigger than a pin prick on a gnat's bollock, shows just how difficult it's also going to be for the EU, not just the UK, after BREXIT.

It'll be a series of conflicting interests. For example, Spain would lose millions because they'd have to fork out more in contributions on one hand and lose money in exports on the other. On top of that, if the UK suffers too much, the Spanish tourist industry would be greatly damaged too. What will they be offered in compensation ?

In contrast, as I understand it, the EU will have to set punishing conditions for Brexit. That's non-negotiable if we are to believe the comments made. The mind boggles !

 

[Full bodied red]

It'll be a series of conflicting interests. For example, Spain would lose millions because they'd have to fork out more in contributions on one hand and lose money in exports on the other. On top of that, if the UK suffers too much, the Spanish tourist industry would be greatly damaged too. What will they be offered in compensation ?

In contrast, as I understand it, the EU will have to set punishing conditions for Brexit. That's non-negotiable if we are to believe the comments made. The mind boggles !

It doesn't have to, but it will pour encourager les autres.

 

[ThierryHenry]

It's painful hearing the reporting and general tone of the debate about this 'deal' we're supposedly going to make with the EU. There's many facets to the negotiations we're going to have to enter into, and really, the public and the vast majority of the media aren't going to be able to understand to nuances involved, particularly following the absence of facts from the referendum campaign, and the continued bluster from the likes of Johnson. I'm worried about the tabloid reaction over-influencing our decision making too - e.g. any compromise with the exit bill to aid free trade negotiations. It's going to be an awful two years of press reporting.

 

[ThierryHenry]

The policy isn't the issue, in isolation they poll very well. Labour has an image problem, well several actually but mainly the ruins of Blairism and then likeability with Ed and Corbyn.

Of course the issue is all candidates fall into one of those two categories really.

The problems that the Corbyn administration have run far beyond 'likeability'. Sheer incompetence is probably the biggest issue.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

If the US put up interest rates and May pulls the trigger, could be an interesting week for the Pound.

 

[sun_tzu]

If the US put up interest rates and May pulls the trigger, could be an interesting week for the Pound.

I think us interest rates could cause some rush to the dollar... But would probably drain from both the euro and pound
I think the triggering is mostly priced into the pound euro as it has been known for so long

 

[sun_tzu]

The problems that the Corbyn administration have run far beyond 'likeability'. Sheer incompetence is probably the biggest issue.

Indeed... I mean this is a man who couldn't even find an overcrowded train in the UK... Incompetence is probably being generous to him... So far out of his depth I am half expecting the hoff to don a pair of red shorts and rescue him from pmq's

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I think us interest rates could cause some rush to the dollar... But would probably drain from both the euro and pound
I think the triggering is mostly priced into the pound euro as it has been known for so long

For the possible rate rise in the US, yes it would probably affect both to varying degrees, the Pound has lost 4.5 cents already against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, how much more it could lose is open to debate

 

[sun_tzu]

For the possible rate rise in the US, yes it would probably affect both to varying degrees, the Pound has lost 4.5 cents already against the Euro in the last 2 weeks, how much more it could lose is open to debate

I'm hoping not too much more... I shifted 200k back from the euro account the other day figuring it shouldn't go too much further... But it's always a guess with these things... My gut feel is that article 50 won't effect it too much but as you say it's open to debate and I talk with traders who suggest anything between parity and about 1.4 by the end of the year... So yeah nobody really knows

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I'm hoping not too much more... I shifted 200k back from the euro account the other day figuring it shouldn't go too much further... But it's always a guess with these things... My gut feel is that article 50 won't effect it too much but as you say it's open to debate and I talk with traders who suggest anything between parity and about 1.4 by the end of the year... So yeah nobody really knows

I saw two traders a week or so ago who worked for the same company giving completely opposite advice to their customers.
I agree to a certain extent , the big movements should come when the markets know which direction the negotiations are likely to go.

One thing I would say though, if the negotiations were on my behalf, I'd refuse to let Fox, Davis or Johnson have any input whatsoever.

 

[Cheesy]

It's painful hearing the reporting and general tone of the debate about this 'deal' we're supposedly going to make with the EU. There's many facets to the negotiations we're going to have to enter into, and really, the public and the vast majority of the media aren't going to be able to understand to nuances involved, particularly following the absence of facts from the referendum campaign, and the continued bluster from the likes of Johnson. I'm worried about the tabloid reaction over-influencing our decision making too - e.g. any compromise with the exit bill to aid free trade negotiations. It's going to be an awful two years of press reporting.

It's been a major problem throughout the entire process. See on QT and similar shows when, every so often, a bold audience member will proclaim how we should just 'not do any deal at all' when leaving, just to stick it to the big bad EU. Irrespective of opinion on the issue the public were incredibly misinformed heading into the vote, with confusion as to the actual status of our relationship with the EU, and how that relationship would change if we left.

 

[sun_tzu]

I saw two traders a week or so ago who worked for the same company giving completely opposite advice to their customers.
I agree to a certain extent , the big movements should come when the markets know which direction the negotiations are likely to go.

One thing I would say though, if the negotiations were on my behalf, I'd refuse to let Fox, Davis or Johnson have any input whatsoever.

I doubt they will have much real input... May seems a control freak so will set the strategy... The civil service will handle the detail... Those three will bumble around and drop the odd bollock but I suspect be largely treated with the irrelevance they will warrent

 

[GloryHunter07]

Yes, as soon as Corbyn leaves.


Lib Dems are already going to make the centrepiece of their next GE campaign to stay in the EU, as soon as Corbyn leaves I think Labour will take that mantle. Don't need another referendum, the GE vote alone will be enough.

I can see the Liberals going full Remain but i honestly cant see Labour being brave enough.

 

[PedroMendez]

https://piie.com/system/files/documents/pb17-9.pdf

17-9 The City of London after Brexit

 

[GloryHunter07]

Only read this page but Tory remain voters are far more likely to go Lib Dem and that's fine coalition is probably the only hope. Even Labour remainers who feel betrayed going to Lib Dem isnt the worst.

Keeping the Labour leave voters (who presumably are less dogmatic) is a bigger issue for any Brexit based GE otherwise it would be giving back the gains.

I thought about 60% of Labour voters sided with Remain?

 

[Ubik]

It's been a major problem throughout the entire process. See on QT and similar shows when, every so often, a bold audience member will proclaim how we should just 'not do any deal at all' when leaving, just to stick it to the big bad EU. Irrespective of opinion on the issue the public were incredibly misinformed heading into the vote, with confusion as to the actual status of our relationship with the EU, and how that relationship would change if we left.

Some even say "we don't even need to trigger article 50, we can just leave!"

But it is amazing, and slightly horrifying, how those in charge have stopped using the arguments that we're bound to get a good deal because of the trade deficit and German cars and whatever else, it's moving to "well, you know, WTO rules aren't that bad."

 

[Full bodied red]

Maybe May should do something along the lines of saying to Brussels ' Sorry guys....We're skint....Can't afford to pay you any longer....'

Opinions / ideas what the EU's response would be ?

Maybe something like ' Aw don't worry - you can stay in the SM just keep your borders open and pay us what you can afford ' through to ' No problem...The ECB will lend you the money to enable you to continue paying your subs ' or a simple ' Well feck off then '....

 

[Full bodied red]

https://piie.com/system/files/documents/pb17-9.pdf

PEDRO....

Nothing new here - could have been written by Osborne as part of Project Fear.

Sections 1 and 2 could be any old cut and paste from any number of articles about The City written over the past 15 years....

Section 3 would be a bit more worrying for the UK if the following didn't appear on Page 1 -

Section 3 estimates the possible effects of Brexit, using admittedly rough calculations and assuming difficult negotiations with the European Union

And Section 4 isn't going to have any other conclusion given Section 3's estimates, possibilities, rough calculations and assumptions.

 

[sun_tzu]

Maybe May should do something along the lines of saying to Brussels ' Sorry guys....We're skint....Can't afford to pay you any longer....'

Opinions / ideas what the EU's response would be ?

.

We are going to build a wall... It will be a beautiful wall and the UK is going to pay for it

 

[Smores]

It's been a major problem throughout the entire process. See on QT and similar shows when, every so often, a bold audience member will proclaim how we should just 'not do any deal at all' when leaving, just to stick it to the big bad EU. Irrespective of opinion on the issue the public were incredibly misinformed heading into the vote, with confusion as to the actual status of our relationship with the EU, and how that relationship would change if we left.

Those people don't care about the facts anyway, they get their news from the Mail and purposefully dumbed down and confrontational radio news shows.

Its like a Monty Python sketch with that lot, instead of 3 yorkshiremen outdoing each other with their tough upbringing its them competing over how much they can make out the EU to be a villain/disaster.

"When i was a lad the EU came to my house and took away my vacuum cleaner"

"Thats nothing, when i was a lad the EU homed sixteen polish men in my wardrobe and made me impotent"

 

[Smores]

Only Labour can secure a fair Brexit. Here’s how

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ration?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Ignoring the credibility of the author ("Mr there's no money left"), i think this is a fair article on how Labour could proceed.

All Labour can do it right now is make noise and be ignored by our supreme ruler May but promoting a viable alternative loudly may prove effective if things do go South.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Only Labour can secure a fair Brexit. Here’s how

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ration?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard

Ignoring the credibility of the author ("Mr there's no money left"), i think this is a fair article on how Labour could proceed.

All Labour can do it right now is make noise and be ignored by our supreme ruler May but promoting a viable alternative loudly may prove effective if things do go South.

Not exactly Corbyn's strong point.

 

[ThierryHenry]

I don't think you needed to highlight 'promoting' or 'loudly'.

 

[Smores]

Not exactly Corbyn's strong point.

Depends, I don't think they ever planned to challenge prior to triggering A50 as they didnt want to be seen as blocking it.

Once its triggered you'd hope they'll aggressively fight the terms.

 

[Ubik]

I don't think you needed to highlight 'promoting' or 'loudly'.

He is good with a megaphone.

 

[GloryHunter07]

A second Scottish referendum - clear fallout from Brexit.

 

[Cheesy]

Michael Hesseltine speaking sense on Sky News.

 

[Stanley Road]

When will the 3rd and 4th scottish referendums be?

 

[Dobba]

When will the 3rd and 4th scottish referendums be?

Take Back Control. No, not like that!

 

[Nogbadthebad]

Depends, I don't think they ever planned to challenge prior to triggering A50 as they didnt want to be seen as blocking it.

Once its triggered you'd hope they'll aggressively fight the terms.

Its not just about being seen to be blocking it.

Brexit is not real. By that, I mean, it doesn't exist beyond being an idea. But everyone who voted for it has a different idea of what brexit is. Whether its less immigration, better trade with other countries, less bureaucracy or a million other things.

But you cannot argue against an idea. Brexit has to be real before you can convince anyone that what they thought brexit would be, is not actually what it will be.

Corbyn took a bashing for it, but getting article 50 out the way quickly is sensible. It is only after we do that, and the reality becomes more than an idea, but inarguable facts, that you can have any real debate on the value of brexit itself.

 

[Wibble]

But you cannot argue against an idea.

I'm fairly sure I can.

Brexit has to be real before you can convince anyone that what they thought brexit would be, is not actually what it will be.

Once it is real most Brexiters who change their mind won't be this analytical. If something about it pisses them off they will forget their original ideas on the subject and be against it.

Corbyn took a bashing for it, but getting article 50 out the way quickly is sensible. It is only after we do that, and the reality becomes more than an idea, but inarguable facts, that you can have any real debate on the value of brexit itself.

If he was really against it he could have taken a stance that he was making sure that the 48% were represented.

 

[Bury Red]

Its not just about being seen to be blocking it.

Brexit is not real. By that, I mean, it doesn't exist beyond being an idea. But everyone who voted for it has a different idea of what brexit is. Whether its less immigration, better trade with other countries, less bureaucracy or a million other things.

But you cannot argue against an idea. Brexit has to be real before you can convince anyone that what they thought brexit would be, is not actually what it will be.

Corbyn took a bashing for it, but getting article 50 out the way quickly is sensible. It is only after we do that, and the reality becomes more than an idea, but inarguable facts, that you can have any real debate on the value of brexit itself.

I can see a little logic in your argument but sadly I also see it as being more akin to debating what a parachute should really look like and be made of after you've jumped from the plane.

 

[Unmutual]

Once its triggered you'd hope they'll aggressively fight the terms.

The failure to secure amendments means there's next to no Parliamentary oversight. The time to fight for the terms of A50 was before it was triggered.

 

[Smores]

The failure to secure amendments means there's next to no Parliamentary oversight. The time to fight for the terms of A50 was before it was triggered.

Fighting the terms of A50 was always ultimately a pointless task as nothing can be guaranteed and we can't stop the process. Only the promise to existing EU members staying was worthwhile as it causes needless harm.

Nothing else including the vote amendment were of much use. Parliament will get a vote in the end, either because we've got a good deal and May wants the occasion or because the deal is bad and parliament can choose between it and hard brexit.

 

[Smores]

I can see a little logic in your argument but sadly I also see it as being more akin to debating what a parachute should really look like and be made of after you've jumped from the plane.

I think we've had those debates for over a year. The issue is we can't buy the parachute until we've jumped and there's no pre-ordering.

A ridiculous process to prevent anyone but idiots leaving the EU but sadly the idiots vote too.

 

[Unmutual]

Fighting the terms of A50 was always ultimately a pointless task as nothing can be guaranteed and we can't stop the process. Only the promise to existing EU members staying was worthwhile as it causes needless harm.

Nothing else including the vote amendment were of much use. Parliament will get a vote in the end, either because we've got a good deal and May wants the occasion or because the deal is bad and parliament can choose between it and hard brexit.

The Opposition had limited options for sure. However the point here is that while there may have been limited options before A50, after A50 there are none. The suggestion that Labour will be able to aggressively fight the terms when Parliament isnt even involved in the process is pretty hollow.

 

[Smores]

The Opposition had limited options for sure. However the point here is that while there may have been limited options before A50, after A50 there are none. The suggestion that Labour will be able to aggressively fight the terms when Parliament isnt even involved in the process is pretty hollow.

For all the hoo-ha what did people actually want? I think its a case of looking for any win from this shit storm more than achieving anything practical.

We're in the same situation except the opportunity of blocking brexit or triggering a GE prior has now passed.

 

[711]

Fighting the terms of A50 was always ultimately a pointless task as nothing can be guaranteed and we can't stop the process. Only the promise to existing EU members staying was worthwhile as it causes needless harm.

Nothing else including the vote amendment were of much use. Parliament will get a vote in the end, either because we've got a good deal and May wants the occasion or because the deal is bad and parliament can choose between it and hard brexit.

I'm afraid people just couldn't understand that negotiations will take place between the government and the EU, not parliament and the EU. A lot seem stlll so shell-shocked by the referendum result they're not thinking things through yet, just re-fighting it over and over again.

 

[Unmutual]

For all the hoo-ha what did people actually want? I think its a case of looking for any win from this shit storm more than achieving anything practical.

We're in the same situation except the opportunity of blocking brexit or triggering a GE prior has now passed.

That second sentence kind of makes no sense. We're in the same situation except for the pretty enormous way in which its different?

But generally I don't get this weird vacillation you have going on, where at one moment you say you hope people will be aggressively fighting the Brexit terms, then on the other hand saying there's naff all we could do about it anyway. The truth is in the middle. The opposition don't get a veto, but every point at which Parliament is engaged with the process is an opportunity to put the spotlight on May & Davis, both within the House and without.

 

[devilish]

'Democratic' uk is refusing Scotlands bid for a second referendum, as it preparing itself to activate article 50 which allow countries to leave the 'undemocratic' eu