Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[devilish]

It is understandable that people keep referring to Brexit as though it is a divorce, with a settlement required between two parties, but the EU is in fact 28 parties! We cannot divorce 27 other countries, its the wrong analogy. To me its more a parting of the ways, the 27 other countries want to go one way, we want to go another, we simply shake hands at the cross roads and go our own ways, we will keep in touch through trade negotiations as these affect everyone. Cheerio, Cheerio Cheerio!

Its not a divorce but an amicable separation. Of course certain commitments where made and the UK must keep to those commitments. If it refuse then why should the EU trust the UK again by handling it an amicable trade deal? Would you help let alone trust somebody who tried to screw you up? After all the UK will be far more affected by hard brexit then the EU will ever be.

 

[The Outsider]

In the euro-area countries with lower GDP per capita had to pay money to countries with higher GDP per capita.

Still not sure I follow this so, to put into context did Spain have to pay money to Germany?

---
Stuff like the British discount on the budget is "pick&chose". Everyone should pay it's fair share based on the same principles/rules.

By budget I think you mean British Rebate, which started as a protest by Thatcher as so much money was seen to go into the CAP

----
The knock on effect of the UK leaving is that the balance of power in the EU shifted dramatically. All the decision making processes were designed around two different blocks being able to stop decisions against their interests (that's why the axis Germany-france was so important to overcome this balance). The UK leaving means, that one side lost its strongest country (considering that Germany usually ended up supporting a a middle ground solution).
The next EU reform will represent this change of power, especially when the German government continues to act like it does. The southern European countries and France will try to shift the institutions according to their interests and they'll succeed (only a question of how far they are able to push it). This is going to make various medium sized countries (who are all doing economically fairly well) pretty unhappy.
The visegrad+ countries are already pissed, but Denmark is probably the country we should look at as yardstick for this development.

Never heard of the visegrad before yet makes sense, a Lithuanian friend once told me linguistically there were crossovers between languages in Eastern Europe and normally that is linked to trade, IMO.

Like your analysis above of potential power changes in the EU and their knock-on potential for further disaffection.

 

[Kentonio]

The chaos continues..

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...s-theresa-may-david-davis-boris-a7952756.html

 

[Kentonio]

Think they might do when Germany gets fed up with footing the bill for the EU 'gravy train' on its own and Trump says "Heh you guys in Europe, pay up for your own defence, or take a hike"

Trump mouthing off would do more for European unity than anything.

 

[I Believe]

If it refuse then why should the EU trust the UK again by handling it an amicable trade deal?

It doesn't need to, that's the beauty of a deal, one side defaults the other withdraws and/or retaliates, its the internal pressures from those directly involved in the trade arrangements, the companies/organisations/providers, those with most to lose etc. on both sides which keeps everybody honest. There is very little trust in any sort of deal on trade, its all in black and white (devil in the details you might say etc!).

I like the amicable separation, but both sides have made commitments, so far we've only heard about the UK's to the EU, what about the EU's to the UK? I suspect very little of these details will be made public, because both sides have to 'give and take' and both face hostilities internally if they are seen to 'cock it up'. A deal will be done, but it will be all 'smoke and mirrors'* the EU is good at that (*from personal experience!)

 

[AshfordLad]

It is understandable that people keep referring to Brexit as though it is a divorce, with a settlement required between two parties, but the EU is in fact 28 parties! We cannot divorce 27 other countries, its the wrong analogy. To me its more a parting of the ways, the 27 other countries want to go one way, we want to go another, we simply shake hands at the cross roads and go our own ways, we will keep in touch through trade negotiations as these affect everyone. Cheerio, Cheerio Cheerio!

It is a bit like a divorce in that the 27 others have a high degree of dependence on the UK for budget contributions as well as their balance of trade. Quite similar to a working spouse and the homestayer. Although Germany contributes more cash but it benefits massively from a weak currency and trade surplus so UK could be seen as at earning spouse in such a case.

 

[I Believe]

Trump mouthing off would do more for European unity than anything.

You're having a laugh...Yes?

 

[I Believe]

Although Germany contributes more cash but it benefits massively from a weak currency and trade surplus so UK could be seen as at earning spouse in such a case.

True, but Germany will have to contribute a lot more and once they are the major donator the euro will become ipso-facto the new Deutschemark and carry that currency burden on German exports

 

[AshfordLad]

True, but Germany will have to contribute a lot more and once they are the major donator the euro will become ipso-facto the new Deutschemark and carry that currency burden on German exports

No. In the current Eurozone, Germany will continue to benefit from both the currency and the exports. The Germans could/should just pick up the tab for UKs contributions once UK stops paying and they would still be in the green.
Of course there are other troubles looming like arranging a military budget and the high handedness of the Germans on a lot of social issues but economics on the whole is not such a big worry.

 

[devilish]

It doesn't need to, that's the beauty of a deal, one side defaults the other withdraws and/or retaliates, its the internal pressures from those directly involved in the trade arrangements, the companies/organisations/providers, those with most to lose etc. on both sides which keeps everybody honest. There is very little trust in any sort of deal on trade, its all in black and white (devil in the details you might say etc!).

I like the amicable separation, but both sides have made commitments, so far we've only heard about the UK's to the EU, what about the EU's to the UK? I suspect very little of these details will be made public, because both sides have to 'give and take' and both face hostilities internally if they are seen to 'cock it up'. A deal will be done, but it will be all 'smoke and mirrors'* the EU is good at that (*from personal experience!)

Please note that the UK is the one leaving Europe and not viceversa. That was after being so insistent to get into Europe for access and that was at a tim when the UK was known to be the sick person of Europe. Brexiters will debate that the union they joined was way different to what it is now. There again, they fail to acknowledge that the UK agreed with most of the changes made (including allowing Eastern European countries in) and it could have vetoed every change it disagreed with.

The union is blessed with the richest market in the world. Everyone seems to want a trade deal with the EU which gives it plenty of leverage. Compared to it the UK market is relatively small. Sure the latter buys more than its sells. There again, no EU country is dependent to the UK market (apart from maybe Ireland) while the UK is pretty dependent on the EU (around half of its export goes to the EU)

The EU also has a huge responsibility to all individual states to make sure that such privilege isn’t abused. That is why the few non EU countries who were allowed unrestricted access have to abide to its rules.

The UK could have considered a CETA deal which would have allowed some form of relationship with the EU while retaining most of its ‘sovereignty’. Unfortunately the UK wants far more access to the EU market than that. On the other side of the spectrum, the UK could have opted for an EEA membership or the Swiss model. The UK is against that because it wants to independent from the ECJ and it doesn’t want to give FOM of people. That is strange considering that it contributed greatly to shape the former and in the past was a big fan of the latter. Finally there’s the custom union option which is somehow sitting in the middle. That option was also shot down as the UK is confident that it can do a better job in sealing trade deals then the work of a unified continent

In few words its wobbly government whose littered with Eurosceptics (some of whom are pretty rude about it) and might not be there at the end of the year is expecting a new ‘bold’ deal which would allow the UK to cherry pick on the issues they currently want and discard other things they were previously in favour but they don’t want anymore. On top of that, they aren’t so sure they want to commit themselves on paying the EU budget they have previously agreed with. Ah I almost forget, since leaving the EU without no trade deals in place would be disastrous for the UK, they might, or might not want a transitional trade deal of an undetermined period of time with an undetermined set of rules which the UK will most probably determine beforehand. Good luck with achieving that.

 

[The Outsider]

The UK could have considered a CETA deal which would have allowed some form of relationship with the EU while retaining most of its ‘sovereignty’. Unfortunately the UK wants far more access to the EU market than that. On the other side of the spectrum, the UK could have opted for an EEA membership or the Swiss model. The UK is against that because it wants to independent from the ECJ and it doesn’t want to give FOM of people. That is strange considering that it contributed greatly to shape the former and in the past was a big fan of the latter. Finally there’s the custom union option which is somehow sitting in the middle. That option was also shot down as the UK is confident that it can do a better job in sealing trade deals then the work of a unified continent

In few words its wobbly government whose littered with Eurosceptics (some of whom are pretty rude about it) and might not be there at the end of the year is expecting a new ‘bold’ deal which would allow the UK to cherry pick on the issues they currently want and discard other things they were previously in favour but they don’t want anymore. On top of that, they aren’t so sure they want to commit themselves on paying the EU budget they have previously agreed with. Ah I almost forget, since leaving the EU without no trade deals in place would be disastrous for the UK, they might, or might not want a transitional trade deal of an undetermined period of time with an undetermined set of rules which the UK will most probably determine beforehand. Good luck with achieving that.

CETA is not yet even a done deal if this article still holds valid:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...rexit-trade-deal-justin-trudeau-a7380751.html

When I think of trade deals I think of market access - like the City of London wants access to the European free market - one of the big issues.

Yet when I think of companies like Dyson and JCB I don't think they are looking to arrange a trade deal their concern is for them to sell their wares in the EU?
So without a trade deal will they sell them with the margin dictated by the WTO?
If so their products would be a x% point more expensive?

Do you agree?

 

[I Believe]

UK to cherry pick on the issues they currently want and discard other things

That's it, got it one, not hard to understand is it?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

That's it, got it one, not hard to understand is it?

This is exactly what has been said all along, the UK have one plan and one plan only, "the cake and eat it" plan - despite being told on numerous occasions that they'd better start thinking sensibly. Still hasn't sunk in yet, though, apparently.

 

[devilish]

CETA is not yet even a done deal if this article still holds valid:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...rexit-trade-deal-justin-trudeau-a7380751.html

When I think of trade deals I think of market access - like the City of London wants access to the European free market - one of the big issues.

Yet when I think of companies like Dyson and JCB I don't think they are looking to arrange a trade deal their concern is for them to sell their wares in the EU?
So without a trade deal will they sell them with the margin dictated by the WTO?
If so their products would be a x% point more expensive?

Do you agree?

Actually Brexit will be great for business. Everything under the sun will be blamed on Brexit and an under pressure government will do its very outmost to shut them up by giving them what they want. Meanwhile most of them will make sure to open secondary companies elsewhere to get the best out of both worlds.

In my opinion its the average guy whose going to get screwed royally. The average joe will lose his FOM and his right to take his own government to a truly independent court. If the pound keep on getting pounded then everything will become more expensive. Meanwhile the UK will be eager to sign trade deals as quick as possible which means that corners might be cut. That will have an enormous impact on farming, job rights and will probably revolutionise the NHS. If things get bad then someone will be blamed and as we know it wont be politicians but the citizens of this much cursed union who ruined everything. No wonder Im leaving the UK soon.

I am not a big fan of the doom and gloom scenario. I know how resilient us islanders can be especially if we felt bullied. However as a person who truly love this country and had been raised like that by people whom I adored, I can't help thinking that this act of self harm is totally unnecessary. The Tories could have sorted their cat fight in a more elegant way then this mess.

 

[I Believe]

The union is blessed with the richest market in the world.

That's because the UK market (65m) is a main chunk of it, outside Germany (Car industry excepted) everyone else in the EU wants to trade with us, without us Germany will have to buy a lot more from the other 26 countries, or dole out more money to them to keep the whole thing afloat.
The truth is the EU needs us more than we need it! we know it and they know it. Once she's been re-elected Mrs Merkel will sit down and work it out with Theresa.

The Garnier/Davis thing is just a side show, a warm up act, Mrs Merkel will drive a hard bargain no doubt,but once the money settled its all settled

 

[devilish]

That's because the UK market (65m) is a main chunk of it, outside Germany (Car industry excepted) everyone else in the EU wants to trade with us, without us Germany will have to buy a lot more from the other 26 countries, or dole out more money to them to keep the whole thing afloat.
The truth is the EU needs us more than we need it! we know it and they know it. Once she's been re-elected Mrs Merkel will sit down and work it out with Theresa.

The Garnier/Davis thing is just a side show, a warm up act, Mrs Merkel will drive a hard bargain no doubt,but once the money settled its all settled

Maybe you're right. There again, Brexiters used to say that the EU will collapse without the UK, that unrestricted access to the single market will be guaranteed as the EU will be desperate to keep its access to the British market and that the UK will be able to cherry pick on almost anything because 'the EU needs the UK more then the UK needs the EU'. Not to forget the 350m a year vow. There's no signs of that whatsoever.

I think that the UK will be get a transitional deal after it agrees to pay its dues. After that god know what will happen. If JC wins then there's a big chance of a second EU referendum which, if won, will mean choosing between EU and EEC membership. If the Tories win, then most of the people involved in Brexit would have retired by then and those who will still be there will try and rewrite history. Such thing happened in Malta. In fact we have a public holiday commemorating the biggest mess up Malta had ever done in its history as a young republic.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

That's because the UK market (65m) is a main chunk of it, outside Germany (Car industry excepted) everyone else in the EU wants to trade with us, without us Germany will have to buy a lot more from the other 26 countries, or dole out more money to them to keep the whole thing afloat.
The truth is the EU needs us more than we need it! we know it and they know it. Once she's been re-elected Mrs Merkel will sit down and work it out with Theresa.

The Garnier/Davis thing is just a side show, a warm up act, Mrs Merkel will drive a hard bargain no doubt,but once the money settled its all settled

I think deluded is a slightly generous term, it's not going to happen. You do realise that Europe couldn't really give a toss about the UK, there's almost no mention of Brexit, other than the British press. Yes it's not ideal but I think Europe will struggle on somehow.

 

[I Believe]

Please note that the UK is the one leaving Europe and not viceversa.

Lets get it straight we are leaving the EU, not Europe, we are not drifting off into the North Sea as 'remoaners' try to kid people, it precisely this guff that prevents clarity.
In fact we might start our own 'Common European Market' (CEM) based sole on trade/security/science and invite some of the other 27 countries to join, only those who can pay their way of course! They can choose either the Pound Sterling/Euro/Dollars and all contracts and trade agreements will reflect this 'basic basket' of CEM currencies

 

[devilish]

Lets get it straight we are leaving the EU, not Europe, we are not drifting off into the North Sea as 'remoaners' try to kid people, it precisely this guff that prevents clarity.
In fact we might start our own 'Common European Market' (CEM) based sole on trade/security/science and invite some of the other 27 countries to join, only those who can pay their way of course! They can choose either the Pound Sterling/Euro/Dollars and all contracts and trade agreements will reflect this 'basic basket' of CEM currencies

Most European countries are in the EU, the EEA, EFTA or at least in the Customs Union. Those who are not are probably trying their very best to become an EU member. Sure you won't be drifting into the North sea but you're probably going to end up with a relationship which is less than that of Turkey.

If I was single I might say that since Im a male, living in the UK and I have a decent job then I have a chance of convincing Natalie Dormer and Sophie Turner to a threesome. In fact I might treat them to a luxurious experience at a penthouse in central London but only if they their way of course! That is of course is true on paper but we know that its never going to happen.

 

[I Believe]

Yes it's not ideal but I think Europe will struggle on somehow.

Yes we all have to face our own demons, in the EU's case 27's worth, in all different shapes and sizes.

The Baltic states fear the Russians most, the other eastern block countries the influx of Muslim immigrants on their Christian base, the Germans their exports becoming uncompetitive if there is a currency rise, The French now fear that Germany becomes the European super power, no Britain to help form a bulwark against Germanic influences. The southern countries fear loss of tourism because no ones helping disperse the immigrants and Turkey looks like going back on its agreement to stop people trafficking... not ideal not even a little bit ideal, in fact its a nightmare scenario for the EU!

 

[I Believe]

You do realise that Europe couldn't really give a toss about the UK, there's almost no mention of Brexit,

Really!
A case of "heads in the sand" do you think? Or maybe its a case of over dinner conversation becoming "better not mention Brexit' it will spoil the ambiance" or perhaps engenders even further worries... "Don't mention Brexit, you will frighten the children"

 

[PedroMendez]

Never heard of the visegrad before yet makes sense, a Lithuanian friend once told me linguistically there were crossovers between languages in Eastern Europe and normally that is linked to trade, IMO.

Like your analysis above of potential power changes in the EU and their knock-on potential for further disaffection.

In the euro area those states with with a "solid" public financial situation had to subsidize those with big deficits. Yet being able to borrow money at the capital market to favourable conditions doesn't equal having a high GDP/cap. The Baltic states went through pretty tough reforms to balance their books and ended up subsidizing countries like Greece that couldn't access the capital market at all.
I am against all forms of transfer payments that are against the rules. Yet it's particularly nasty when poor countries have to subsidize richer ones, who don't get their shit together. The euro is a disaster and bullying any new country into this club against their wishes is terrible policy, that will backfire.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Yes we all have to face our own demons, in the EU's case 27's worth, in all different shapes and sizes.

The Baltic states fear the Russians most, the other eastern block countries the influx of Muslim immigrants on their Christian base, the Germans their exports becoming uncompetitive if there is a currency rise, The French now fear that Germany becomes the European super power, no Britain to help form a bulwark against Germanic influences. The southern countries fear loss of tourism because no ones helping disperse the immigrants and Turkey looks like going back on its agreement to stop people trafficking... not ideal not even a little bit ideal, in fact its a nightmare scenario for the EU!

The Baltic States have always feared the Russians and seem much happier within the EU, the only people who seem to fear the Germans are the Brits, Germany and France will be the two largest powers in the EU after the UK leaves because of their populations and thus share of the vote. Quite looking forward to moving on without the whining UK. There have always been Muslim people in the eastern bloc. This nightmare scenario you are imagining doesn't exist, it only exists in this hope that Brexiters have that the EU will collapse without the Uk, I can only see it getting stronger which it is.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Really!
A case of "heads in the sand" do you think? Or maybe its a case of over dinner conversation becoming "better not mention Brexit' it will spoil the ambiance" or perhaps engenders even further worries... "Don't mention Brexit, you will frighten the children"

Yes really, why would Europeans worry about Brexit? As far as most people are concerned it's old news, I get the odd joke from my French friends asking why I'm still here but actually they all think the Brits are insane.

 

[I Believe]

actually they all think the Brits are insane

That's been true belief of the French for Centuries... remember General De Gaulle didn't want to allow us entry into the Common Market (never mind the EU) in the first place, his Non! Non! Non! use to really irritate Harold Wilson!

Perhaps the old General knew something after all?

 

[Cheesy]

That's because the UK market (65m) is a main chunk of it, outside Germany (Car industry excepted) everyone else in the EU wants to trade with us, without us Germany will have to buy a lot more from the other 26 countries, or dole out more money to them to keep the whole thing afloat.
The truth is the EU needs us more than we need it! we know it and they know it. Once she's been re-elected Mrs Merkel will sit down and work it out with Theresa.

The Garnier/Davis thing is just a side show, a warm up act, Mrs Merkel will drive a hard bargain no doubt,but once the money settled its all settled

Other countries want to trade with us but they're not going to sacrifice their current position within the EU for the sole purpose of doing so. We may be an influential figure within the EU and make up a decent part of the market, but we're hardly the bulk of it considering it consists of over 25 European states, including fairly major ones like France, Germany, Italy etc. The EU will want to reach a good deal but they won't bend over to pacify us. Something our government still doesn't really seem to get.

 

[Cheesy]

The Baltic States have always feared the Russians and seem much happier within the EU, the only people who seem to fear the Germans are the Brits, Germany and France will be the two largest powers in the EU after the UK leaves because of their populations and thus share of the vote. Quite looking forward to moving on without the whining UK. There have always been Muslim people in the eastern bloc. This nightmare scenario you are imagining doesn't exist, it only exists in this hope that Brexiters have that the EU will collapse without the Uk, I can only see it getting stronger which it is.

It tends to result in a common paradox perpetrated by most Brexiters; wherein the EU is both this all-powerful organisation on the verge of forming a superstate, while simultaneously being an ageing and ailing organisation past its sell-by-date on the verge of collapse.

 

[devilish]

Other countries want to trade with us but they're not going to sacrifice their current position within the EU for the sole purpose of doing so. We may be an influential figure within the EU and make up a decent part of the market, but we're hardly the bulk of it considering it consists of over 25 European states, including fairly major ones like France, Germany, Italy etc. The EU will want to reach a good deal but they won't bend over to pacify us. Something our government still doesn't really seem to get.

And they don't have to

a- the continent can tank the blow. Im not sure that the UK can do the same
b- the Tory government is as wobbly as it is. Imagine what will happen if the Uk crash out and the economy goes tits up. A snap election might quickly follow and all these clowns will make way to JC and his people. An EEC membership is quite easier for the EU to sort out as opposed to David Davis plan of reinventing the wheel.

 

[I Believe]

This nightmare scenario you are imagining doesn't exist,

Keep telling yourself that my friend, it might help... but I doubt it.

Mrs Merkel (when re-elected) and Mrs May will sort Brexit and it will all be about money. The final details will be kept secret because both leaders will not want people in their own countries (note not the EU) to know exactly what the final deal is. They will make it look like both have something to brag about... after all that's what they call 'Diplomacy'
Everybody else in the EU and in the British Parliament will 'toe the line'

The other possible scenario is Britain will get everything it asked for, but will have to pay a massive Bill... in instalments! Theresa will then 'fall on her Sword' and the new Leader of the Tory party will win another General Election and JC will go down as a footnote in history!

 

[MoskvaRed]

It tends to result in a common paradox perpetrated by most Brexiters; wherein the EU is both this all-powerful organisation on the verge of forming a superstate, while simultaneously being an ageing and ailing organisation past its sell-by-date on the verge of collapse.

Connected with that is the desperate attempt by the likes of the Mail and the Telegraph to overrate the chances of far right wing parties. Le Pen was their darling for a while and now they are talking up AfD in Germany.

 

[The Outsider]

Actually Brexit will be great for business. Everything under the sun will be blamed on Brexit and an under pressure government will do its very outmost to shut them up by giving them what they want. Meanwhile most of them will make sure to open secondary companies elsewhere to get the best out of both worlds.

In my opinion its the average guy whose going to get screwed royally. The average joe will lose his FOM and his right to take his own government to a truly independent court. If the pound keep on getting pounded then everything will become more expensive. Meanwhile the UK will be eager to sign trade deals as quick as possible which means that corners might be cut. That will have an enormous impact on farming, job rights and will probably revolutionise the NHS. If things get bad then someone will be blamed and as we know it wont be politicians but the citizens of this much cursed union who ruined everything. No wonder Im leaving the UK soon.

I am not a big fan of the doom and gloom scenario. I know how resilient us islanders can be especially if we felt bullied. However as a person who truly love this country and had been raised like that by people whom I adored, I can't help thinking that this act of self harm is totally unnecessary. The Tories could have sorted their cat fight in a more elegant way then this mess.

Possible Scenarios with no Brexit deal agreed.

1. No Brexit deal WTO tariffs apply – UK Businesses take a hit on EU market. Other markets remain the same. Would they relocate from the UK – unlikely. New trade deals with other countries would make this relocation even less likely.


2. No Brexit deal, EU blocks all imports from the UK - UK Businesses lose their EU market. Other markets remain the same. Would they relocate from the UK – probably. New trade deals with other countries might make this relocation less likely.


In scenario 2 hopefully less likely, I would see the UK taking retaliatory action and that would put Ireland in a tricky situation. They would probably exit the EU due to sheer necessity of keeping the UK market.

Another scenario If the worst case option 2 occurs, on another front I could see EU business with the likes of BMW, Siemiens, Braun, Whirlpool probably applying political pressure to avoid losing a lucrative market. If they don’t new competitors might enter and then challenge their other markets.


There is no doubt this is a high-stake game yet remember how we got here, no proper political debates about pros and cons of globalism and freedom of movement and just vilification of anyone that disagreed with the status quo as deluded and being far right / racist or socialist / marxist. This is why the Brexit vote brought more voters out than recent elections. Undoubtedly a myriad of additional factors play into this yet they all point to a democratic deficit where people do not feel they are being listened to.

Another thing is becoming apparent to me is that the City of London interest talking about the need for a financial passport seems to be the same group that got us in the mess in 2008/2009 that decimated SMEs (decimated might be a kind way of putting it) and then via QE put billions on the national debt. They have also had their hand in PFI that is ripping off the NHS too.

 

[Kentonio]

Really!
A case of "heads in the sand" do you think? Or maybe its a case of over dinner conversation becoming "better not mention Brexit' it will spoil the ambiance" or perhaps engenders even further worries... "Don't mention Brexit, you will frighten the children"

I wish you could get a glimpse of how very silly Britain looks to most of Europe right now. The only Brexit question Europeans ask Brits now is whether we were in favour, because it's a useful way of working out whether someone is an idiot or not. They're not burying their heads in the sands, they're part of a vast and hugely successful union, that we just decided to leave on a stupid whim.

 

[I Believe]

an ageing and ailing organisation past its sell-by-date on the verge of collapse.

No paradox, certainly nowhere near an efficient state never mind a super state; the above hits the nail on the head

 

[MoskvaRed]

Possible Scenarios with no Brexit deal agreed.

1. No Brexit deal WTO tariffs apply – UK Businesses take a hit on EU market. Other markets remain the same. Would they relocate from the UK – unlikely. New trade deals with other countries would make this relocation even less likely.


2. No Brexit deal, EU blocks all imports from the UK - UK Businesses lose their EU market. Other markets remain the same. Would they relocate from the UK – probably. New trade deals with other countries might make this relocation less likely.


In scenario 2 hopefully less likely, I would see the UK taking retaliatory action and that would put Ireland in a tricky situation. They would probably exit the EU due to sheer necessity of keeping the UK market.

Another scenario If the worst case option 2 occurs, on another front I could see EU business with the likes of BMW, Siemiens, Braun, Whirlpool probably applying political pressure to avoid losing a lucrative market. If they don’t new competitors might enter and then challenge their other markets.


There is no doubt this is a high-stake game yet remember how we got here, no proper political debates about pros and cons of globalism and freedom of movement and just vilification of anyone that disagreed with the status quo as deluded and being far right / racist or socialist / marxist. This is why the Brexit vote brought more voters out than recent elections. Undoubtedly a myriad of additional factors play into this yet they all point to a democratic deficit where people do not feel they are being listened to.

Another thing is becoming apparent to me is that the City of London interest talking about the need for a financial passport seems to be the same group that got us in the mess in 2008/2009 that decimated SMEs (decimated might be a kind way of putting it) and then via QE put billions on the national debt. They have also had their hand in PFI that is ripping off the NHS too.

Regarding the last bit, the City of London and financial services generally is also the largest part of the national tax base. If you are arguing that the economy had become too skewed on both a sectoral and regional basis, I'd agree. But the correct response would have been to promote the manufacturing sector, not cripple the services sector while also making it harder for what's left of manufacturing.

 

[I Believe]

I wish you could get a glimpse of how very silly Britain looks to most of Europe right now

I did get a view of how stupid we British looked in Europe when I worked for the EU (late 90's to early 00's).
The other members (except strangely Germany) thought we were stupid for paying in all that money and getting virtually nothing back. It did improve matters a bit when Mrs Thatcher got her rebate, that stopped the outright falling about laughing at the stupid British, but our other EEC (as it was then) partners continued to 'chuckle' away to themselves behind our backs... they're not laughing now, or if they are, its nervous laughter..."they are not really going to leave are they..Oh my goodness me!..." don't panic, don't panic!!"

 

[Paul the Wolf]

That's been true belief of the French for Centuries... remember General De Gaulle didn't want to allow us entry into the Common Market (never mind the EU) in the first place, his Non! Non! Non! use to really irritate Harold Wilson!

Perhaps the old General knew something after all?

The general didn't want the UK in the Common Market because he thought the USA would get in through the back door via the UK.
This close relationship with the USA and the UK exists in everyone's mind except the Americans.
The Americans are very good at using the UK for their own purposes though.

Keep telling yourself that my friend, it might help... but I doubt it.

Mrs Merkel (when re-elected) and Mrs May will sort Brexit and it will all be about money. The final details will be kept secret because both leaders will not want people in their own countries (note not the EU) to know exactly what the final deal is. They will make it look like both have something to brag about... after all that's what they call 'Diplomacy'
Everybody else in the EU and in the British Parliament will 'toe the line'

The other possible scenario is Britain will get everything it asked for, but will have to pay a massive Bill... in instalments! Theresa will then 'fall on her Sword' and the new Leader of the Tory party will win another General Election and JC will go down as a footnote in history!

The only person who wants to keep things secret is Theresa May as she has repeated on several occasions, because she knows the British brexiteers might not like what they find out. She has two choices, either stop the posturing or leave with nothing.
I'm afraid the Uk will not be getting their cake.
As far as I'm concerned May JC Boris and all the rest of them are all equally incompetent so when they've all gone, the UK should become a better place

 

[The Outsider]

Regarding the last bit, the City of London and financial services generally is also the largest part of the national tax base. If you are arguing that the economy had become too skewed on both a sectoral and regional basis, I'd agree. But the correct response would have been to promote the manufacturing sector, not cripple the services sector while also making it harder for what's left of manufacturing.

It's unlikely we would lose all the financial service sector yet it would certainly shrink.
We do have manufacturing in arms and niche products, the latter for a global market.

There are always options, oil deposits in the South of England (rich area), Bradbury pound concept last used in 1914.

I agree with your point, though it takes people a while to see what is happening and then to be able to articulate that and take action. It's no accident Cameron got a large majority which baffled the political pundits, he promised a referendum. I believe Macron recently promised a referendum for the French perhaps this took votes away from Le Pen. It would be good to hear a French viewpoint on this.

 

[Cheesy]

No paradox, certainly nowhere near an efficient state never mind a super state; the above hits the nail on the head

And yet one of the central arguments of Brexiteers was that the EU is moving increasingly closer to being an all-powerful, all-encompassing superstate with its own army, akin to what the US have. Even if you believe it to be ailing, though, it's quite clear reports of such have been overstated dramatically since the Eurosceptic surge with the likes of Le Pen etc hasn't come to pass.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

It's unlikely we would lose all the financial service sector yet it would certainly shrink.
We do have manufacturing in arms and niche products, the latter for a global market.

There are always options, oils deposits in the South of England (rich area), Bradbury pound concept last used in 1914.

I agree with your point, though it takes people a while to see what is happening and then to be able to articulate that and take action. It's no accident Cameron got a large majority which baffled the political pundits, he promised a referendum. I believe Macron recently promised a referendum for the French perhaps this took votes away from Le Pen. It would be good to hear a French viewpoint on this.

Le Pen wanted a referendum not Macron - Le Pen and Mélenchon were the anti-EU candidates

 

[Cheesy]

It's unlikely we would lose all the financial service sector yet it would certainly shrink.
We do have manufacturing in arms and niche products, the latter for a global market.

There are always options, oils deposits in the South of England (rich area), Bradbury pound concept last used in 1914.

I agree with your point, though it takes people a while to see what is happening and then to be able to articulate that and take action. It's no accident Cameron got a large majority which baffled the political pundits, he promised a referendum. I believe Macron recently promised a referendum for the French perhaps this took votes away from Le Pen. It would be good to hear a French viewpoint on this.

Nah, don't think Macron ever promised a referendum. He's as pro-Europe as they come, and despite the discontent in France they're still a lot more pro-EU than Britain.