Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
It's not all about economics right? Its about other stuff like..........?

For me it's bigger than economics, but a big part of our arguments have been about the economics so if we're wrong then you guys can certainly be unbearably smug about that. It won't happen because the economics are the clearest area of fault in your arguments, but hey.

The rest is a much more unclear picture of influence and power and who will be wielding it in the coming decades. It will have huge economic impacts, but it's also larger than that. Most Brexiteers appear to believe that the UK will continue to hold considerable influence in the years to come, whereas from my perspective the future is competing power blocs (US, EU, China, Russia). There isn't much point debating the details at the moment because it's too early and will inevitably lead to mockery/accusations of scaremongering. Suffice to say that I see the world heating up (in more ways than one) as the new superpowers flex their muscles and start to break free of American hegemony. We're already seeing this very clearly with Russia. The safest place for the U.K. in that scenario in my opinion is as part of an EU bloc that can separate itself from US interests to whatever degree it chooses, and not get dragged into an East vs West confrontation.
 
I just realized something, the report is obsolete. The numbers are based on the fact that in 2012 the UK were AAA rated. Also this concerns the EIB and its bonds, not the ESM, at least not directly.


No....Not obsolete....

Like I said - no idea the € billions exposure today, 29.09.2017, but the same principle and rules and obligations still apply until the UK leaves the EU.

Maybe these are part of the financial obligations that Barnier and the others are talking about and need these to continue after BREXIT, but are genuinely scared to disclose this because that would change the whole ' is-BREXIT-stupid ' question in the heads of the BREXIT doubters / worriers in the UK.

Can't really think of any other reason why the EU still can't provide an itemised bill.

For me it's bigger than economics, but a big part of our arguments have been about the economics so if we're wrong then you guys can certainly be unbearably smug about that. It won't happen because the economics are the clearest area of fault in your arguments, but hey.

The rest is a much more unclear picture of influence and power and who will be wielding it in the coming decades. It will have huge economic impacts, but it's also larger than that. Most Brexiteers appear to believe that the UK will continue to hold considerable influence in the years to come, whereas from my perspective the future is competing power blocs (US, EU, China, Russia). There isn't much point debating the details at the moment because it's too early and will inevitably lead to mockery/accusations of scaremongering. Suffice to say that I see the world heating up (in more ways than one) as the new superpowers flex their muscles and start to break free of American hegemony. We're already seeing this very clearly with Russia. The safest place for the U.K. in that scenario in my opinion is as part of an EU bloc that can separate itself from US interests to whatever degree it chooses, and not get dragged into an East vs West confrontation.

The Russians could break, economically, the EU within a couple of weeks by just refusing to sell them Russian oil and gas.

You have to be self-sufficient in energy to play with the big boys - ask Japan.
 
No....Not obsolete....

Like I said - no idea the € billions exposure today, 29.09.2017, but the same principle and rules and obligations still apply until the UK leaves the EU.

Maybe these are part of the financial obligations that Barnier and the others are talking about and need these to continue after BREXIT, but are genuinely scared to disclose this because that would change the whole ' is-BREXIT-stupid ' question in the heads of the BREXIT doubters / worriers in the UK.

Can't really think of any other reason why the EU still can't provide an itemised bill.

Yeah, the UK are in the same group than France and aren't with Germany anymore. The callable capital is based on the credit rating of the shareholder, the UK aren't AAA, they are AA with negative outlook, which means that the idea behind the report is obsolete.
 
Yeah, the UK are in the same group than France and aren't with Germany anymore. The callable capital is based on the credit rating of the shareholder, the UK aren't AAA, they are AA with negative outlook, which means that the idea behind the report is obsolete.

Don't think so - only the total $billions of the UK's exposure in the report will have changed as a result of the rating downgrade.

On the other hand, post-BREXIT who can replace the UK's contribution to the overall total ?

Cyprus ? Slovenia ? Malta ?

Or is that going to be another way that France and Germany tighten their grip on the other members' ecomomies and budgets ?
 
Don't think so - only the total $billions of the UK's exposure in the report will have changed as a result of the rating downgrade.

On the other hand, post-BREXIT who can replace the UK's contribution to the overall total ?

Cyprus ? Slovenia ? Malta ?

Or is that going to be another way that France and Germany tighten their grip on the other members' ecomomies and budgets ?

At the risk of sounding like a broken disk, there is nothing to replace, this is about the EIB. And the assumption that is made here is that since the bonds are supposed to be of high quality, they are supposed to be fairly liquid which means that in theory the EIB could quickly raise an awful lot of money.

And the obvious answer to your question is that the bank will lend less money and will lend to better "clients".
 
The second largest exposure is to the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, €1.9 billion of paid-in capital and €35.7 billion of immediately callable, subscribed capital. The EIB views the UK’s contribution of €37.6 billion as representing 39.6% of its “Broad risk-bearing capacity”, even though the UK is only a 16% shareholder.


And the 'other' €100+/- billion or so ?
 
The second largest exposure is to the European Investment Bank in Luxembourg, €1.9 billion of paid-in capital and €35.7 billion of immediately callable, subscribed capital. The EIB views the UK’s contribution of €37.6 billion as representing 39.6% of its “Broad risk-bearing capacity”, even though the UK is only a 16% shareholder.


And the 'other' €100+/- billion or so ?

According to the report the UK guaranteed 110m, 60bn were supposed to be linked the EFSM but that was before its final transition which don't include the UK. Then you have the 37bn linked to the EIB and the AAA rating which is now a thing of the past.

I have to admit that I would like to now how the AAA shares are now distributed, at the time it was 1/3 for the UK and the rest for Germany. Surely Germany aren't guaranteeing everything.
 
The Russians could break, economically, the EU within a couple of weeks by just refusing to sell them Russian oil and gas.

You have to be self-sufficient in energy to play with the big boys - ask Japan.

It's almost like there's an ulterior motive behind Europe's heavy focus on switching to renewable energies..
 
It's almost like there's an ulterior motive behind Europe's heavy focus on switching to renewable energies..

Just before the Japanese Tsunami Reuters news were showing a clip of a car running in Tokyo running on water (Tap, sea water, tea etc) with a small conversion box inside.
Makes you wonder if that upset some major players too.
 
I struggle to understand why Johnson is seen as such a powerful political figure, any takers?

Easy. He often says what a lot of people are thinking but other politicians shy off from saying, so he has a substantial public following. Sounds like you need to broaden your reading a bit to take in different opinions. However shite they may be. :)
 
Easy. He often says what a lot of people are thinking but other politicians shy off from saying, so he has a substantial public following. Sounds like you need to broaden your reading a bit to take in different opinions. However shite they may be. :)

I've heard him described as being intellectual and to be fair the odd comment I have read in the mainstream press seemed reasonable.
Yet the balls up he made with the £350m a day Brexit figure.
The fact that a number of people questioned on the street said he made them laugh as a reason for voting for him does not feel me with confidence that he is an heavyweight candidate with any substance.

Happy to be enlightened if I have misread him...........
 
I've heard him described as being intellectual and to be fair the odd comment I have read in the mainstream press seemed reasonable.
Yet the balls up he made with the £350m a day Brexit figure.
The fact that a number of people questioned on the street said he made them laugh as a reason for voting for him does not feel me with confidence that he is an heavyweight candidate with any substance.

Happy to be enlightened if I have misread him...........

I thought you were trying to understand him rather than looking for an opportunity to state your own views. Apologies.
For the record he's a tosser, you're unlikely to find an argument on that here.
 
Oh my word..

In the fourth quarter of last year, a sharp outflow of gold showed up as a sudden spike in exports, causing some economists to conclude that Britain's manufacturers were starting to benefit from a post-Brexit jump in confidence.

In fact, the spike was primarily a sign of investors pulling gold out of vaults in London.
 
I struggle to understand why Johnson is seen as such a powerful political figure, any takers?

From my experience in politics, idiots of that kind dont usually go to high places unless.... they are very well connected.
 
Until we know what will happen with Brexit, the pound will oscillate on the financial markets, of course we do have the ability to raise interest rates to support the pound.
 
Its seems the EU is not as desperate to sell prosecco to the UK as the Brexiteers first thought they will be
 
Its seems the EU is not as desperate to sell prosecco to the UK as the Brexiteers first thought they will be
I see this as good news especially as i dont known what prosecco is but hear the name a lot.

The eu are not that desperate to sell to anyone that isnt in the eu. Its like a poker table, the pool of money might change hands but doesnt get bigger until someone else sits down and gets less interesting when someone leaves the game, usually to join a tabble where theres more action.
 
The EU in general and The Slimeball in particular all seem remarkably quiet as one of its largest members tears itself apart.

And especially as Art 5 states quite clearly that any EU member using military force against its own citizens will be suspended from membership.

Perhaps because there's no money to be made from the Exit Invoice for Catalunya....
 
I see this as good news especially as i dont known what prosecco is but hear the name a lot.

The eu are not that desperate to sell to anyone that isnt in the eu. Its like a poker table, the pool of money might change hands but doesnt get bigger until someone else sits down and gets less interesting when someone leaves the game, usually to join a tabble where theres more action.

You just have to ask boris and co. He keot mentioning it throughout the brexit campaign

The EU has loads of trade deals with many non eu countries. Its simply isn't desperate to sign one with anyone. Considering how desperate global britain is to get a deal you cant blame them
 
The EU in general and The Slimeball in particular all seem remarkably quiet as one of its largest members tears itself apart.

And especially as Art 5 states quite clearly that any EU member using military force against its own citizens will be suspended from membership.

Perhaps because there's no money to be made from the Exit Invoice for Catalunya....

Whats happening in catalonia is disgraceful
The eu is caught between two fires here. If it stays out its accused of not caring. If it stays in then its accused of meddling in Spain's sovereignty

However its not just the EU whose doing nothing about it. The US and the UK who have quite a reputation of policing the world and finding wmds were there are none has done nothing either. Hopefully catalonia can become allies with democratic and pro human rights saudi arabia. That might help to move the latter into action
 
hey don´t mix us up with that lot :p

We are alone and we know. Once independent, we can sign an agreement as Spain will not accept us in the EU. We still have nice beaches and parties where to puke magalufstyle
 
hey don´t mix us up with that lot :p

We are alone and we know. Once independent, we can sign an agreement as Spain will not accept us in the EU. We still have nice beaches and parties where to puke magalufstyle

Id say the same I said about Scotland ie another country who deserves independence and sovereignty. I hope that the EU will be extremely generous with you guys.
 
Id say the same I said about Scotland ie another country who deserves independence and sovereignty. I hope that the EU will be extremely generous with you guys.
Scotland had a legal vote, the will of the people needs to be respected.
 
Scotland had a legal vote, the will of the people needs to be respected.

Things changed alot since then. I doubt that the proud scots are happy to be dragged out of the EU by westminster.

If they wish to leave the UK then we should let them in.
 
Things changed alot since then. I doubt that the proud scots are happy to be dragged out of the EU by westminster.

If they wish to leave the UK then we should let them in.
Nothings changed at all. They voted to remain part of the uk and all the consequences that comes with it. Yo cant cherry pick what you want right?
 
Nothings changed at all. They voted to remain part of the uk and all the consequences that comes with it. Yo cant cherry pick what you want right?

Come on Stan, even you know that is a load of old codswallop. Everything has changed.

One of the reasons many voted to remain within the UK was EU membership, it was a huge part of the Scottish remain campaign.
 
Nothings changed at all. They voted to remain part of the uk and all the consequences that comes with it. Yo cant cherry pick what you want right?

If Scotland want to leave the UK and join the EU then I sincerely hope that they will find an open door. After all that's were all European belong to
 
Come on Stan, even you know that is a load of old codswallop. Everything has changed.

One of the reasons many voted to remain within the UK was EU membership, it was a huge part of the Scottish remain campaign.
Scottish girl at work voted to leave uk for the very same reason

Explain to me what has changed