Mainly yeah
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
Just saw this
Labour’s Chuku Umunna says the EU Withdrawal Act makes it illegal to do anything that would introduce a hard border in Ireland. But if the UK were to leave without a deal, under WTO rules it would have to impose border controls. Can May confirm then that the Act makes a no deal Brexit illegal.
May says she does not accept that interpretation. After leaving, the UK could decide for itself what it did with the border, she claims.
If this is what she actually said, this is grossly negligent and unbelievably stupid.
Labour’s Chuku Umunna says the EU Withdrawal Act makes it illegal to do anything that would introduce a hard border in Ireland. But if the UK were to leave without a deal, under WTO rules it would have to impose border controls. Can May confirm then that the Act makes a no deal Brexit illegal.
May says she does not accept that interpretation. After leaving, the UK could decide for itself what it did with the border, she claims.
If this is what she actually said, this is grossly negligent and unbelievably stupid.
Even under that circumstance the North would be more likely to go alone than as a United Ireland imo, assuming they stayed in the EU. Half of the North don't consider themselves to be Irish, after all.
Stupid question: Coming from the island of Ireland isn't enough to consider yourself Irish?
Welcome to the wonderful world of Irish politics and identity. In other words this is a much more complex issue than a border.
That part is fairly confusing from the outside. And must be upsetting for a part of the population, I guess?
It's extremely difficult to get a good grasp of the complexities here so I understand that outsiders struggle with it.
Short answer. No. Roughly half of the north (protestants) consider themselves British, and the others (Catholic) consider themselves Irish.
Is there any French colonial equivalent?
Thinking about it maybe Québec, canadians will have a better idea.
I don't really see any scenario where Northern Ireland could sustain itself long term. I don't think an independent state is really a possibility from an economical or political point of view.
There are a lot of people in NI who want to stay in the UK and a lot who want to join Ireland. I don't imagine there are many who are pushing for NI to become it's own country.
Not sure about that anymore, certainly there is still a fair amount of loyalists who don't see themselves as Irish. But there are a lot of people from a Unionist background that do see themselves as Irish or at least Northern Irish as well as being British.
Plus the demographics are rapidly changing in the North. Catholics will soon be the majority, granted not all of them will be nationalists desperate for a United Ireland. But a lot of them won't be locked into the idea of staying in the UK either if it doesn't make economic sense. Brexit i think has changed a lot of peoples minds on the subject.
Yep
Really? Assuming they were in the EU then surely they could do well economically, especially if the UK go. English speaking and cheaper than ROI for miltinationals. Obviously a big period of transition would be needed given the amount of money and jobs the UK has to pump in.
There's no way ROI will absorb NI anyway. Dublin and Cork are already paying for the rest of the country, we can't afford to do it for another 1.8m people now or in the long term. So they either stay with the UK out of the EU or go away from the UK and into the EU.
I won't pretend to be an economic expert mate and predict how Northern Ireland's economy would do as an independent state as opposed to part of a United Ireland. But i don't see how it would even come about, there's no one in NI pushing for independence. Pretty much everyone is either stay in the UK or join Ireland.
Well that will be up to people in the south if a referendum ever happens. If NI were to join Ireland i think the hope would be that the north's economy grows to the point where it either sustains itself or even contributes. Currently the Northern Ireland economy has been in a long stagnation compared to the Republic. Obviously thats mostly down to 30+ years of Civil War and being a fairly remote and ignored part of the UK.
The Tories have ruined this country. The last 8 years have been a disaster. They are about to top it off.
Isnt that an over simplification?
Probably better off as an independent state so they can have their own devolved institutions. As part of Europe economically theyd be far better off in than out (Im guessing). I dont know the exact figure of EU grants to NI but Im assuming its a lot more than theyll be budgeted from Westminster post Brexit.
Unless the Tories continue to need their government propped up..
Of course it is, but it's impossible not to give a simplified short answer to that question.
Northern Ireland would not be able to survive as an independent state at present. We have been lacking in investment for around 40 years in comparison to the rest of the UK and we have an economy that depends hugely on the public sector which if it went independent would shrink enormously and there is a serious lack of good jobs here.
Personally i don't see how that would work, NI is isolated from the rest of the UK geographically by a sea and cut off from the rest of the island of Ireland politically. Probably two reasons the economy has been slow to grow since 1998.
Currently NI is massively funded from Britain and EU grants. And has a huge public sector as @balaks has said, around 30% of the workforce. A lot of those jobs would not be transferable if Northern Ireland left the UK. If NI left the UK and joined a United Ireland i imagine there would have to be a long period of changeover where the area was still being supported financially by the UK and possibly the EU. In this scenario i think the economy would grow but only slowly, it would be a long time before NI is ever self sufficient.
And even setting aside the economic aspect, an independent NI would be a nightmare politically with the DUP and Sinn Fein not being able to agree on the colour of the sky. We haven't had a working government here for 18 months after rows over language acts, the renaming of boats and sheer incompetence like ''cash for ash''. The thought of putting these people in charge of an actual country with more power and less oversight is crazy.
I've never been a massive proponent of a United Ireland but i have thought if it did happen it might dilute the political landscape here and hopefully lead to less people voting Sinn Fein or DUP tribally regardless of policies.
One possible benefit would be that the bigger Irish parties over the border would take over and the likes of the DUP (and to a lesser extent Sinn Fein - though they have been successful in growing over the border) would be consigned to the history books.
Yeah thats what i hope would happen as well mate. The current bunch are holding Northern Ireland back with their squabbling.
The BCC says there are 24 questions about Brexit where business needs answer.
On two it gives the government an amber rating, meaning some progress has been made. Those two questions are:
ACCESS TO EU WORKFORCE
Will I be able to hire EU nationals in future – and under what conditions?
INDUSTRIAL STANDARDS
What industrial standards will my firm need to comply with in the future, and will the UK stick with the European model that we have strongly influenced?
And here are the 22 other questions where the BCC has given the government a red rating, meaning that little or no progress has been made.
BUSINESS TRAVEL
Will business travel between the UK and the EU involve further administration, costs or visas?
STAFF TRANSFERS
Will my business be able to move skilled staff members between the UK and the EU in future?
HORIZON 2020
Will UK firms and institutions be able to participate in European R&D projects after 2020?
EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK
Will UK projects be eligible for support from the EIB after 2020?
ESIF FUNDS UK REPLACEMENT
How will the UK replacement for EU Funds work, and how can my company access opportunities?
IMPORT VAT
Will I need to pay VAT on goods at point of import? Will I be able to use postponed accounting or have access to more generous deferment account terms to offset the cash-flow issues?
SERVICES VAT
Will I need to become VAT-registered in every EU member state where my firm has clients?
REGULATORY AGENCIES
Which regulator will be overseeing my business in the future, and what rules do I need to follow? Is the UK government going to charge businesses for the creation of new regulatory agencies in the UK?
PRODUCT TESTING
Will conformity assessments on products conducted by a UK body will continue to be sufficient for the product to be sold on the EU market?
DISPUTE RESOLUTION
What dispute resolution and means of redress will be available to my business in the future?
MOBILE ROAMING
Will my business have to pay mobile roaming charges in the EU after Brexit?
CUSTOMER DATA
Will my business continue to be able to hold and transfer data and personal information without any interruptions after we have left the EU?
TARIFFS
Will I be able to continue trading without tariffs with the EU in the future?
RULES OF ORIGIN
What rules of origin will I need to comply with once the UK has left the EU? Will I be able to UK and EU content to be counted as single origin, both when trading with the EU and with third countries?
CONTINUITY OF EU FTAS
Will my company still have access to markets on the same terms as now once we have left the European Union?
BUSINESS ENGAGEMENT STRUCTURE
How will my business be able to contribute directly to future trade negotiations?
AVIATION
Will I still be able to fly people and/or goods between the UK and the EU after Brexit day – or could travel be disrupted?
CUSTOMS
Will my goods be subject to new customs rules, procedures and inspections at the UK or EU border in future? Could my shipments be held up and delayed?
INSPECTIONS
Will there be new health or safety-related inspections at the UK-EU border that my company will need to deal with?
DECLARATIONS
Will I need to do additional customs-related paperwork, including import and export declarations, when trading with the EU?
TRUSTED TRADER SCHEMES
Will my business be able to become a ‘trusted trader’ to move quickly through borders in future – and what will the process be?
IRELAND
What, if any, procedures will my company face trading cross-border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland?
On two it gives the government an amber rating, meaning some progress has been made. Those two questions are:
ACCESS TO EU WORKFORCE
Will I be able to hire EU nationals in future – and under what conditions?
INDUSTRIAL STANDARDS
What industrial standards will my firm need to comply with in the future, and will the UK stick with the European model that we have strongly influenced?
And here are the 22 other questions where the BCC has given the government a red rating, meaning that little or no progress has been made.
BUSINESS TRAVEL
Will business travel between the UK and the EU involve further administration, costs or visas?
STAFF TRANSFERS
Will my business be able to move skilled staff members between the UK and the EU in future?
HORIZON 2020
Will UK firms and institutions be able to participate in European R&D projects after 2020?
EUROPEAN INVESTMENT BANK
Will UK projects be eligible for support from the EIB after 2020?
ESIF FUNDS UK REPLACEMENT
How will the UK replacement for EU Funds work, and how can my company access opportunities?
IMPORT VAT
Will I need to pay VAT on goods at point of import? Will I be able to use postponed accounting or have access to more generous deferment account terms to offset the cash-flow issues?
SERVICES VAT
Will I need to become VAT-registered in every EU member state where my firm has clients?
REGULATORY AGENCIES
Which regulator will be overseeing my business in the future, and what rules do I need to follow? Is the UK government going to charge businesses for the creation of new regulatory agencies in the UK?
PRODUCT TESTING
Will conformity assessments on products conducted by a UK body will continue to be sufficient for the product to be sold on the EU market?
DISPUTE RESOLUTION
What dispute resolution and means of redress will be available to my business in the future?
MOBILE ROAMING
Will my business have to pay mobile roaming charges in the EU after Brexit?
CUSTOMER DATA
Will my business continue to be able to hold and transfer data and personal information without any interruptions after we have left the EU?
TARIFFS
Will I be able to continue trading without tariffs with the EU in the future?
RULES OF ORIGIN
What rules of origin will I need to comply with once the UK has left the EU? Will I be able to UK and EU content to be counted as single origin, both when trading with the EU and with third countries?
CONTINUITY OF EU FTAS
Will my company still have access to markets on the same terms as now once we have left the European Union?
BUSINESS ENGAGEMENT STRUCTURE
How will my business be able to contribute directly to future trade negotiations?
AVIATION
Will I still be able to fly people and/or goods between the UK and the EU after Brexit day – or could travel be disrupted?
CUSTOMS
Will my goods be subject to new customs rules, procedures and inspections at the UK or EU border in future? Could my shipments be held up and delayed?
INSPECTIONS
Will there be new health or safety-related inspections at the UK-EU border that my company will need to deal with?
DECLARATIONS
Will I need to do additional customs-related paperwork, including import and export declarations, when trading with the EU?
TRUSTED TRADER SCHEMES
Will my business be able to become a ‘trusted trader’ to move quickly through borders in future – and what will the process be?
IRELAND
What, if any, procedures will my company face trading cross-border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland?
Less than 9 months to go.
The latest nonsense that will get rejected.
Mexican standoff..
It already has been rejected. That's even before she gets agreement with the cabinet.
At least they're close to acknowledging one thing that we've been telling them all for two and a half years:
"The UK would in effect remain in the EU's customs union is that there is no other way of avoiding border checks between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Or at least that is what the PM and her officials now believe."
And even within that simple explanation there are other complications. I know many catholic families who hold British passports and believe in the union
Andrew Neil quaking at the thought if his beloved Tories not getting what they want.
Seems to change every week, one minute we are heading for hard Brexit, then soft, then hard and so on. Interesting that hard is now in "3rd place" behind remain and soft.
I wonder if Theresa will tweet Patrick back?
The incredible thing is, this squabble is over a deal that won't be accepted by the EU.
Remain is not an option in the legal sense. Also, Hard Brexit isn't an option in the practical sense. No government will want to be responsible for that. May has placed her entire premiership on the odds of the member states telling Barnier to feck off.
I though Hard Brexit was also not an option in a legal sense due to the Irish border issue.
No deal has been nothing but a negotiating "tactic" for all but the clinically insane. Every time we get rebuffed by Brussels it gets wheeled out because we literally have no other cards to play.
The government is objecting to that view. Think the courts would have their say on that if that situation ever arose. The only way I can see hard brexit is if Mogg and co successfully took over the government.
I have my doubt if they would ever do it. They have been threatening it for ages, they are all bark and no bite. I think even the most hardened brextiteer wouldn't want to have the responsibility for the eventual shitstorm. They are desperate for May to be their Guinea pig.
"If you don't do it, I'll kill myself" is what it sounds like.