Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
EU expect deal by end of year
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45768848

The only problem is I'm not sure I can envisage any deal she can get through the UK parliament (if labour stick to voting gainst it)
Will be interesting though as we know there will probably be 20-40 or so tory MP's who vote against whatever the deal

So it will be take the deal or hard brexit and it will be interesting to see how labour handle that and even if they could get enough MPs to effectively enforce a hard brexit
 
EU expect deal by end of year
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45768848

The only problem is I'm not sure I can envisage any deal she can get through the UK parliament (if labour stick to voting gainst it)
Will be interesting though as we know there will probably be 20-40 or so tory MP's who vote against whatever the deal

So it will be take the deal or hard brexit and it will be interesting to see how labour handle that and even if they could get enough MPs to effectively enforce a hard brexit
I think Tory MPs will get in line actually. Labour Brexiters will probably defy the whip too.
 
I have a serious question.

What would be some advantages of Brexit.
In the short to medium term the advantages are all for a small number of people who will make a profit from the chaos / turmoil that ensues.

So traders on the right side of predicting events will make a handsome profit.
If you have stockpiles of goods that are in short supply you will make a profit
Some will make money picking over the financial corpses of a number of organisations that go to the wall as a result of brexit / challenging economic conditions.

Some new enterprises will set up to try and offset / monetise the new conditions - Particularly in the logistics area to assist with things like Bonded Warehouses / refugee centres / Customs clearances / visa applications etc.

Many more International students will get places at UK Universities to offset the dramatic fall in applications from EU Students. UK students will be more restricted in their University choices so there will be a larger pool of student labour in the UK.

In the medium to long term the question really comes down to how the EU performs. If the EU continues to provide prosperity and overcomes the recent growth in nationalism then the UK's long term economic future looks very gloomy. The last time UK struck out on its own from Europe there were unconquered lands to discover and colonise and largely uncontested ocean it could dominate with the largest fleet of Navy and "privateers" or pirates to dominate and intimidate the opposition. It is highly unlikely we would see a new economic empire forming, as much of the decision making will move to Europe.

I honestly believe the only possible upside to Brexit would be if the EU completely rips itself apart due to issues with Agricultural policy / nationalism / another yugoslavia type civil ear happening in a satellite state. I think some of the Brexiteers fantasies are that the UK's withdrawal will somehow bring the about but the indicators are that the rest of Europe will not fragment as their media has not had an anti eu agenda for decades like the UK had.

Ultimately in the long term we will probably have to go through the process of re-entering the EU as a much reduced member in terms of influence and economic size somewhere along the lines of say Spain.
 
Yes, which would be acceptance of the dominion of the British over parts of and the people of Ireland... Saying some words in a foreign language isn't really the root of thr issue is it. Or do you think that's the reason?
I think it could be a deal breaker for some and as I said they will watch on while the others make them look very good in doing nothing.
 
Theresa May - "Europe, give us free market access or we'll put in a hard border and let a region inside our border descend into violence by going back on an agreement with dangerous paramilitary organisations..."

Is this woman fecking stupid? How is that even a position of negotiation. Arlene Foster is going to guarantee a no deal brexit.
 
How's this for an idea?

Why don't we scrap the whole thing and actually get on with governing the country instead of wasting all the parliamentary time on this crap?
There's talk that Trump is galvanising the electorate in America, making people more politically aware. Do you think that Brexit is having the same effect in Britain? It's probably a stupid question, but surely people in Britain are realising that they need to take more notice of what's going on or you end up in these types of situations... Arlene Foster is part of a negotiating team for Brexit! How does that happen?
 
There's talk that Trump is galvanising the electorate in America, making people more politically aware. Do you think that Brexit is having the same effect in Britain? It's probably a stupid question, but surely people in Britain are realising that they need to take more notice of what's going on or you end up in these types of situations... Arlene Foster is part of a negotiating team for Brexit! How does that happen?
Let's wait until the mid terms in the USA to find out how much people are paying attention. As for here yeah the majority of people don't give a shit about Brexit.
 


Oh... I get it now. It’s about “feelings”. Brexiteers have fallen out of love with Europe and are happy to live the rest of their lives in a worse off position because they’ll no longer be with someone they don’t love. That’s a great analogy, really takes the complexities and nuances of something absolutely nothing like a 1-1 relationship between two people into account.
 
Oh... I get it now. It’s about “feelings”. Brexiteers have fallen out of love with Europe and are happy to live the rest of their lives in a worse off position because they’ll no longer be with someone they don’t love. That’s a great analogy, really takes the complexities and nuances of something absolutely nothing like a 1-1 relationship between two people into account.
It's almost like they simplified it for comedic effect
 
:lol:

They kind of proved their remoaner credentials as satirised in the clip. Such drama.
British comedy was one of the few areas of genuine exceptionalism we had left. If that's what passes for satire in post Brexit Britain then we truly are fecked.

The whole of Brexit has been a bad joke and those expecting us to yuck along with the giggling idiots who still don't understand what they voted for but who love Boris' bumbling are the intellectual equivalent of the canned laughter on you've been framed. We'll cheer up and go along with Brexit the moment one of you can tell us any genuine positive of Brexit or just one of those pesky EU regulations that was making your life so hard before but all we ever hear is "you need to get on board with the people's will and make it a success".
 
DUP now threatening to block the budget if May gives in on the issue of NI. Next few weeks are going to be bumpy
 
:lol:

They kind of proved their remoaner credentials as satirised in the clip. Such drama.
It clearly touched a nerve it seems.

Ah, woke Stig Abell. Not related to the cnut, with the same name and appearance, who worked at The Sun and printed/defended Katie Hopkins' article calling migrants cockroaches.
I've got no idea who he is, I just saw it pop up on twitter and I thought it might be a bit of a laugh to post on here.
 
It clearly touched a nerve it seems.

Honestly, I think that it just doesn't work. If you go with the couple angle, it's a lot better to work around the nature of the relationship, she could have proposed an open relationship and then the remoaner meltdowns. By going with the clean break, they gutted the entire topic and potential for good satire.
 
Honestly, I think that it just doesn't work. If you go with the couple angle, it's a lot better to work around the nature of the relationship, she could have proposed an open relationship and then the remoaner meltdowns. By going with the clean break, they gutted the entire topic and potential for good satire.
This is all fair but have you seen BBC 3 comedy writers

dims
 
D.u.p will Allegedly vote down the budget if they don't like The Brexit proposals

Basically looks like Mays in trouble if they follow through on that because I can't see any support from the opposition benches in the budget (though as ken Clarke pointed out today rebel labour MP's will be her best route on a brexit deal)

And if there is no budget then I guess It's possibly a general election... Which probably guarantees a hard brexit?
 
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-18-6089_en.htm?locale=EN

Barnier's speech today at the European Parliament of Enterprises, partly in French and partly in English

The English part in the spoiler below

Ladies and gentlemen,

On 29 March 2019, in less than 6 months, the UK will leave the European Union.

We have always respected the UK's sovereign decision to leave the European Union, even if we profoundly regret this vote We respect its decision to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union.

And we are doing our best to reach a deal on the UK's orderly withdrawal.

Since the beginning of this negotiation, we have made good progress.

In fact, as you can see in this copy of the draft Treaty, a lot of the Withdrawal Agreement – 80%-85% – has now been agreed with the UK.

However, some difficult issues have been left until the end.

We must agree on the governance of the Withdrawal Agreement and on geographical indications that are currently protected in the 28 EU Member States.

Above all, we need to agree on how to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland for political, human, and economic reasons.

Ladies and gentlemen,

The UK wants to and will leave the Single Market and the Customs Union.

This means that there must be checks on goods travelling between the EU and the UK – checks that do not exist today:

  • customs and VAT checks;
  • and compliance checks with our standards to protect our consumers, our economic traders and your businesses.
We have agreed with the UK that these checks cannot be performed at the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

A crucial question is, therefore, where they will take place.

The EU is committed to respecting the territorial integrity and constitutional order of the UK, just like the UK has committed to respecting the integrity of our Single Market, including Ireland, obviously.

Therefore, the EU proposes to carry out these checks in the least intrusive way possible.

For customs and VAT checks, we propose using the existing customs transit procedures to avoid doing checks at a physical border point. To be more specific:

o Companies in the rest of the UK would fill in their customs declarations online and in advance when shipping goods to Northern Ireland.

o The only visible systematic checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would involve scanning the bar codes of the lorries or containers, which could be done on ferries or in transit ports.

o These arrangements already exist within EU Member States, in particular those with islands, for example between mainland Spain and the Canary Islands.

For regulatory checks, on industrial goods for instance, these could be carried out by market surveillance authorities.

Again, this would not need to happen at a border but directly in the market or at the premises of companies in Northern Ireland.

This leaves the health and phytosanitary checks for live animals and products of animal origin. EU rules are clear: such checks must happen at the border because of food safety and animal health reasons. And obviously, in the future the island of Ireland will and must remain a single epidemiologic area.

o Such checks already exist in the ports of Larne and Belfast.

o However they would have to cover 100 % rather than 10 % of live animals and animal-derived products, which would involve a significant change in terms of scale.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Both the EU and the UK exclude having a physical border on the island of Ireland. Therefore what will arrive into Northern Ireland will also be arriving into the Single Market.

There will be administrative procedures that do not exist today for goods travelling to Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Our challenge is to make sure those procedures are as easy as possible and not too burdensome, in particular for smaller businesses.

I understand why such procedures are politically sensitive, but let me make three remarks.

First, Brexit was not our choice. It is the choice of the UK. Our proposal tries to help the UK in managing the negative fall-out of Brexit in Northern Ireland, in a way that respects the territorial integrity of the UK.

Second, our proposal limits itself to what is absolutely necessary to avoid a hard border: customs procedures and the respect of EU standards for products.

It does not include measures on free movement of people, services, healthcare or social and environmental policy. But the Common Travel Area between the UK and Ireland will continue as today.

And yet, our proposal gives Northern Ireland benefits that no part of a third country enjoys. In particular continued access to the Single Market for goods and continued benefits from the EU free trade agreements.

Our proposal also includes the continuation of the island's Single Electricity Market, as requested by the UK.

Over the past week, we have met the leaders of all Northern Irish political parties – many of whom I have met before, and many of whom I will meet again. My door is always open. And my team met on Monday a group of Northern Irish business leaders and a group representing local government.

Naturally, there were questions, doubts and worries about our proposal – and Brexit in general.

But most conversations focused on the added value for Northern Ireland so long as we can mitigate the burden of doing checks.

Third, our proposal is just a safety net, a "backstop".

It is needed because the details of the future relationship will only be negotiated after the UK's withdrawal.

But the future relation in itself might mitigate the necessary checks, or even make some unnecessary:

o For instance, a veterinary agreement would mean less frequent inspections of live animals.

o And we are still open to the idea of having a customs union with the UK. Such a customs union would eliminate an important part of custom checks.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Apart from the issue of Ireland and Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement will include other important issues, on which we already agreed with the UK.

These issues are important for your businesses, your employees and your regions.

In particular, we already agreed that:

European citizens who arrived in the UK before the end of 2020 and British citizens who moved to other EU countries before that date can continue to live their lives as before. We remain in close contact with the organisations representing the citizens concerned, most notably to discuss the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

All financial commitments undertaken by the 28 EU Member States will be honoured by the 28, for instance on the European Social Fund and the regional policy. All current programmes will continue, with the UKs participation.

The UK will retain all the rights and obligations of a Member State for a transition period, until the end of 2020, at its request.

This will leave time for businesses to prepare.

And this will leave time to finalise the future relationship.

To be clear, all these points will enter into force on the condition that we agree on the whole Withdrawal Agreement, which must then be ratified, I hope in the beginning of next year by the UK and by the European Parliament.

Note: "Details of the future relationship will only be negotiated after the UK's withdrawal."

In case anyone was in any doubt, Chequers is still dead.
 
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-18-6089_en.htm?locale=EN

Barnier's speech today at the European Parliament of Enterprises, partly in French and partly in English

The English part in the spoiler below

Ladies and gentlemen,

On 29 March 2019, in less than 6 months, the UK will leave the European Union.

We have always respected the UK's sovereign decision to leave the European Union, even if we profoundly regret this vote We respect its decision to leave the Single Market and the Customs Union.

And we are doing our best to reach a deal on the UK's orderly withdrawal.

Since the beginning of this negotiation, we have made good progress.

In fact, as you can see in this copy of the draft Treaty, a lot of the Withdrawal Agreement – 80%-85% – has now been agreed with the UK.

However, some difficult issues have been left until the end.

We must agree on the governance of the Withdrawal Agreement and on geographical indications that are currently protected in the 28 EU Member States.

Above all, we need to agree on how to avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland for political, human, and economic reasons.

Ladies and gentlemen,

The UK wants to and will leave the Single Market and the Customs Union.

This means that there must be checks on goods travelling between the EU and the UK – checks that do not exist today:

  • customs and VAT checks;
  • and compliance checks with our standards to protect our consumers, our economic traders and your businesses.
We have agreed with the UK that these checks cannot be performed at the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.

A crucial question is, therefore, where they will take place.

The EU is committed to respecting the territorial integrity and constitutional order of the UK, just like the UK has committed to respecting the integrity of our Single Market, including Ireland, obviously.

Therefore, the EU proposes to carry out these checks in the least intrusive way possible.

For customs and VAT checks, we propose using the existing customs transit procedures to avoid doing checks at a physical border point. To be more specific:

o Companies in the rest of the UK would fill in their customs declarations online and in advance when shipping goods to Northern Ireland.

o The only visible systematic checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK would involve scanning the bar codes of the lorries or containers, which could be done on ferries or in transit ports.

o These arrangements already exist within EU Member States, in particular those with islands, for example between mainland Spain and the Canary Islands.

For regulatory checks, on industrial goods for instance, these could be carried out by market surveillance authorities.

Again, this would not need to happen at a border but directly in the market or at the premises of companies in Northern Ireland.

This leaves the health and phytosanitary checks for live animals and products of animal origin. EU rules are clear: such checks must happen at the border because of food safety and animal health reasons. And obviously, in the future the island of Ireland will and must remain a single epidemiologic area.

o Such checks already exist in the ports of Larne and Belfast.

o However they would have to cover 100 % rather than 10 % of live animals and animal-derived products, which would involve a significant change in terms of scale.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Both the EU and the UK exclude having a physical border on the island of Ireland. Therefore what will arrive into Northern Ireland will also be arriving into the Single Market.

There will be administrative procedures that do not exist today for goods travelling to Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Our challenge is to make sure those procedures are as easy as possible and not too burdensome, in particular for smaller businesses.

I understand why such procedures are politically sensitive, but let me make three remarks.

First, Brexit was not our choice. It is the choice of the UK. Our proposal tries to help the UK in managing the negative fall-out of Brexit in Northern Ireland, in a way that respects the territorial integrity of the UK.

Second, our proposal limits itself to what is absolutely necessary to avoid a hard border: customs procedures and the respect of EU standards for products.

It does not include measures on free movement of people, services, healthcare or social and environmental policy. But the Common Travel Area between the UK and Ireland will continue as today.

And yet, our proposal gives Northern Ireland benefits that no part of a third country enjoys. In particular continued access to the Single Market for goods and continued benefits from the EU free trade agreements.

Our proposal also includes the continuation of the island's Single Electricity Market, as requested by the UK.

Over the past week, we have met the leaders of all Northern Irish political parties – many of whom I have met before, and many of whom I will meet again. My door is always open. And my team met on Monday a group of Northern Irish business leaders and a group representing local government.

Naturally, there were questions, doubts and worries about our proposal – and Brexit in general.

But most conversations focused on the added value for Northern Ireland so long as we can mitigate the burden of doing checks.

Third, our proposal is just a safety net, a "backstop".

It is needed because the details of the future relationship will only be negotiated after the UK's withdrawal.

But the future relation in itself might mitigate the necessary checks, or even make some unnecessary:

o For instance, a veterinary agreement would mean less frequent inspections of live animals.

o And we are still open to the idea of having a customs union with the UK. Such a customs union would eliminate an important part of custom checks.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Apart from the issue of Ireland and Northern Ireland, the Withdrawal Agreement will include other important issues, on which we already agreed with the UK.

These issues are important for your businesses, your employees and your regions.

In particular, we already agreed that:

European citizens who arrived in the UK before the end of 2020 and British citizens who moved to other EU countries before that date can continue to live their lives as before. We remain in close contact with the organisations representing the citizens concerned, most notably to discuss the implementation of the Withdrawal Agreement.

All financial commitments undertaken by the 28 EU Member States will be honoured by the 28, for instance on the European Social Fund and the regional policy. All current programmes will continue, with the UKs participation.

The UK will retain all the rights and obligations of a Member State for a transition period, until the end of 2020, at its request.

This will leave time for businesses to prepare.

And this will leave time to finalise the future relationship.

To be clear, all these points will enter into force on the condition that we agree on the whole Withdrawal Agreement, which must then be ratified, I hope in the beginning of next year by the UK and by the European Parliament.

Note: "Details of the future relationship will only be negotiated after the UK's withdrawal."

In case anyone was in any doubt, Chequers is still dead.
Sounds sensible... The brexiteers and the dup will therefore probably hate it
 
Any talk of deal was always after withdrawal, nothing new there. If i was may i wouldnt bother turning up for any sort of talk until after march. Waste of time and effort.
 
Any talk of deal was always after withdrawal, nothing new there. If i was may i wouldnt bother turning up for any sort of talk until after march. Waste of time and effort.

Actually it should be the opposite. The EU should not bother with the UK attitude
 
Sounds sensible... The brexiteers and the dup will therefore probably hate it

Seems the only solution but yes, the brexiters led by Johnson and Mogg and the DUP will hate it

Any talk of deal was always after withdrawal, nothing new there. If i was may i wouldnt bother turning up for any sort of talk until after march. Waste of time and effort.

If she doesn't turn up there's no deal and no transition, not long left.

Edit: There are two deals here as opposed to what Mogg and company expect.
The first deal is to agree the withdrawal agreement, citizens, border, settlement.
This has to be agreed beforehand.
The second deal is the future relationship or Canada+++ or whatever , talks start after the UK leave. Don't think Johnson and Mogg have quite grasped this.
 
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Honestly, I think that it just doesn't work. If you go with the couple angle, it's a lot better to work around the nature of the relationship, she could have proposed an open relationship and then the remoaner meltdowns. By going with the clean break, they gutted the entire topic and potential for good satire.

This is all fair but have you seen BBC 3 comedy writers

dims

I was going to say the target audience for BBC3 is 16-34. They have Stacey Dooley, Professor Green and Reggie Yates presenting serious documentaries on the channel, with the best will in the world the content is on the shallow side.