Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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Will Absolute said:
The British voted to return their country to the status of a normal nation state. There's nothing revolutionary about it, and no reason to expect it'll be any kind of disaster.

Bear in mind that the EU is the anomaly, a bizarre experiment in shared sovereignty of a kind which has never existed in the past, and which, with the passage of time, displays ever more undeniable signs of terminal dysfunctionality.
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No reason it'll be any kind of disaster except for the fact that we'll have no longer have any countries to trade freely with, no skilled negotiators to conduct new deals for us, no reason for other countries not to eat us alive in negotiations, no reason for the economy not to shrink uncontrollably.
 
endless_wheelies said:
No reason it'll be any kind of disaster except for the fact that we'll have no longer have any countries to trade freely with, no skilled negotiators to conduct new deals for us, no reason for other countries not to eat us alive in negotiations, no reason for the economy not to shrink uncontrollably.
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do you think uk will become the new Chad?
 
All this over an illusion that, immigration is running the country into the ground.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...proach-is-not-muddled-at-all-says-theresa-may

So it's not muddled - people are expecting that the UK can select bits of the EU, she says, no we're leaving (but we still want the trade deals).
You cannot discuss trade deals until you've left, my dear and we know what the cost of the single market is. You got one thing right, there was no plan, as we all knew.
She looks totally unconvinced that she knows what she's doing. Now it's her plan...
 
Captain Obvious says hello.

UK firms brace for further Brexit price rises, surveys show
British companies are grappling with higher costs and bracing for further pressure in the months ahead as the start of Brexit talks threatens to drag the pound down further and ramp up the price of imports to the UK.

Reports from the manufacturing and construction sectors on Monday point to a sharp rise in the prices paid for materials by firms in Britain and worries that their profit margins will be squeezed as they decide how much of those higher costs they can pass on to customers.

Manufacturers’ organisation EEF flagged up higher costs in its latest survey of 281 senior executives although it found companies were generally upbeat about their own prospects in 2017, with hopes for improved sales.

In the report, the EEF said: “Companies have experienced a surge in input costs, which soared to multiyear highs. As the weak pound is expected to prevail, cost pressures will be gradually feeding through into higher consumer prices in the year ahead.”

Separate research by the Federation of Master Builders found 70% of the 232 UK construction companies it polled had recorded an increase in material prices owing to the pound’s fall since the Brexit vote.

Sarah McMonagle, director of external affairs at the group, said: “Thousands of smaller building firms are grappling with the rising cost of materials caused by the depreciation of sterling since the EU referendum.

“Anecdotally, construction SMEs [small and medium-sized enterprises] are already reporting an increase of 22% in Spanish slate and a 20% increase in timber. A quarter of all materials used by the UK construction industry are imported – this is significant and underlines the vulnerability of the industry to sudden fluctuations in the strength of our currency.”
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https://www.theguardian.com/busines...e-for-further-brexit-price-rises-surveys-show
 
Paul the Wolf said:
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...proach-is-not-muddled-at-all-says-theresa-may

So it's not muddled - people are expecting that the UK can select bits of the EU, she says, no we're leaving (but we still want the trade deals).
You cannot discuss trade deals until you've left, my dear and we know what the cost of the single market is. You got one thing right, there was no plan, as we all knew.
She looks totally unconvinced that she knows what she's doing. Now it's her plan...
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She does not have a choice. The EU doesn't seem keen to any cherry picking.
 
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devilish said:
The only alternative to that was an EEA membership
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Or a bespoke deal...
I suspect this is most likely but probably a pretty shitty deal all round probably some consessions for eu skilled migration (especially NHS and infra construction) for some limited service market access (plus probably a fairly large fee)
 
Did anyone see the report that, Theresa May plans to contest the next GE on the UK quitting the European Convention on Human Rights?
 
sun_tzu said:
Or a bespoke deal...
I suspect this is most likely but probably a pretty shitty deal all round probably some consessions for eu skilled migration (especially NHS and infra construction) for some limited service market access (plus probably a fairly large fee)
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I find that very very unlikely. A mixed trade deal takes too much time to negotiate with every country or region having to agree with it. Most European countries have alot on their plate at the moment including GE in key countries, Putin and Trump to worry about Brexit.

The proposition of allowing the UK to leave the EU without a deal only to suffer from the consequences of not having any trade deals in place is quite tempting. The UK economy will suffer, businesses might move to the continent, Scotland, Northern Ireland and co might threaten to leave and the UK will have to negotiate from a weaker position to what they are is now. There's also the incentive that a disastrious Brexit might see the Tory party ending greatly weakened or even losing the next GE. I strongly believe that most EU negotiators will just love to negotiate with other people rather then Davis, Fox and Boris
 
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Adisa said:
Did anyone see the report that, Theresa May plans to contest the next GE on the UK quitting the European Convention on Human Rights?
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It's an absolute fetish of hers.

The problem is it should be a death sentence for her, but the right wing press will whip up a jingoistic storm about how we don't like none of those foreigners (conveniently forgetting our role in it) writing down our rights and stuff and it will be popular as feck.

Its said that a country gets the government it deserves, and if the country wants a police state run by the Führerin then good on them. But I know I won't stick around to see it.
 
devilish said:
I find that very very unlikely. A mixed trade deal takes too much time to negotiate with every country or region having to agree with it. Most European countries have alot on their plate at the moment including GE in key countries, Putin and Trump to worry about Brexit.

The proposition of allowing the UK to leave the EU without a deal only to suffer from the consequences of not having any trade deals in place is quite tempting. The UK economy will suffer, businesses might move to the continent, Scotland, Northern Ireland and co might threaten to leave and the UK will have to negotiate from a weaker position to what they are is now. There's also the incentive that a disastrious Brexit might see the Tory party ending greatly weakened or even losing the next GE. I strongly believe that most EU negotiators will just love to negotiate with other people rather then Davis, Fox and Boris
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Potentially... it will be one of the strangest trade negotiations as typically it's about taking barriers away and achieving harmonisation of standards... here we have harmonised standards and no barriers to start with so as I say it's a different thing... it should in theory be simpler though the flip side it will almost certainly be more confrontational as it will be imposing not removing barriers.

I personally doubt a good deal will be negotiated on the time frame but I think some fudge will go through...

I mean plenty of European companies want access to the capital markets of London tarriff free and just like getting a good trade deal will take years the practicalities of putting a financial services infrastructure in place beyond simple passporting will also take years.

As I say some fudge... not a good deal for any party and probably a lot of bad feeling / blame
 
sun_tzu said:
Potentially... it will be one of the strangest trade negotiations as typically it's about taking barriers away and achieving harmonisation of standards... here we have harmonised standards and no barriers to start with so as I say it's a different thing... it should in theory be simpler though the flip side it will almost certainly be more confrontational as it will be imposing not removing barriers.

I personally doubt a good deal will be negotiated on the time frame but I think some fudge will go through...

I mean plenty of European companies want access to the capital markets of London tarriff free and just like getting a good trade deal will take years the practicalities of putting a financial services infrastructure in place beyond simple passporting will also take years.

As I say some fudge... not a good deal for any party and probably a lot of bad feeling / blame
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I am no expert so I really don’t know what’s going to happen. However I did work in politics, I have friends who work in Brussels and that include MEPs. I find it very hard to believe that all EU countries + regions will be able to formulate a deal, in 2 years, while there’s so many general elections going on. Canada wasn’t able to do so and it’s a country whom everybody loves in Europe and who had never insulted anybody.

The signs don’t look great either. May mentioned the word ‘cannot’ which, in my opinion, is quite revealing. Also there’s plenty of signs that the EU are closing the ranks against the Brexiters. UK allies like Ireland, Denmark and Malta remain silent. Many countries had sent envoys in London to try to lure business back home and Beppe Grillo whose quite a dunce is cutting ties with Ukip. As said I am no expert and while I did work in politics, I hated it and it was quite a minor role (although I did work very close to a minister). However from my limited experience I can assure you that those aren’t encouraging signs.

I can see the EU offering a way out to the UK. They can’t just slam the door or else they will look bad. However I believe that it would be nothing more than a membership to the EEA with maybe some cosmetic changes which were also offered to Cameron. The UK will of course refuse and the two unions will part ways ‘amicable’ with the promise that new negotiations will set place once the UK is out of the EU. In reality both will be hoping that the other one will burn to the ground which will make it easier for them to get a better deal.
 
devilish said:
She does not have a choice. The EU doesn't seem keen to any cherry picking.
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Not if she says that she doesn't want freedom of movement, as seems clear, therefore no single market.
As the Uk is part of the EU until they leave, they cannot negotiate a deal with the EU as in effect they would be negotiating with themselves. As they are part of the EU they'll have to go under WTO as a separate nation so again after they leave or be part of the EEA which they'll have to do after they leave.

What about Passport rights for banking, presume they don't want that either

As the EU said, the negotiations are purely about the divorce of the Uk from the EU, not about trade deals. Thus the talks will be quite short.
Basically just 2 items on the agenda:
1. What happens to the EU citizens living and working in the UK and vice versa
2. When will the Uk pay the EU what they owe them

Pounds dropping again as off to Limboland they go.
Seems parliament is the only hope.

Basically the Cake and Eat It Plan.
Expecting a few announcements from the financial institutions over the coming weeks.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Not if she says that she doesn't want freedom of movement, as seems clear, therefore no single market.
As the Uk is part of the EU until they leave, they cannot negotiate a deal with the EU as in effect they would be negotiating with themselves. As they are part of the EU they'll have to go under WTO as a separate nation so again after they leave or be part of the EEA which they'll have to do after they leave.

What about Passport rights for banking, presume they don't want that either

As the EU said, the negotiations are purely about the divorce of the Uk from the EU, not about trade deals. Thus the talks will be quite short.
Basically just 2 items on the agenda:
1. What happens to the EU citizens living and working in the UK and vice versa
2. When will the Uk pay the EU what they owe them

Pounds dropping again as off to Limboland they go.
Seems parliament is the only hope.

Basically the Cake and Eat It Plan.
Expecting a few announcements from the financial institutions over the coming weeks.
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If May accepted the EEA option then the UK will implode, Ukip will get ridiculously strong and she will be out of her job. I think its pretty obvious by now that national interest is waaaayyy down in the Tory Party agenda.
 
devilish said:
If May accepted the EEA option then the UK will implode, Ukip will get ridiculously strong and she will be out of her job. I think its pretty obvious by now that national interest is waaaayyy down in the Tory Party agenda.
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Seems the national interest seems way down on every politician's agenda
 
devilish said:
If May accepted the EEA option then the UK will implode, Ukip will get ridiculously strong and she will be out of her job. I think its pretty obvious by now that national interest is waaaayyy down in the Tory Party agenda.
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Would they...
Eea seems a pretty good option
I would have thought the 48% who voted remain would feel ok about that
A good chunk of those that didn't vote
And even those who voted to leave on the repeated promise that leaving the eu didn't mean leaving the single market
 
devilish said:
I am no expert so I really don’t know what’s going to happen. However I did work in politics, I have friends who work in Brussels and that include MEPs. I find it very hard to believe that all EU countries + regions will be able to formulate a deal, in 2 years, while there’s so many general elections going on. Canada wasn’t able to do so and it’s a country whom everybody loves in Europe and who had never insulted anybody.

The signs don’t look great either. May mentioned the word ‘cannot’ which, in my opinion, is quite revealing. Also there’s plenty of signs that the EU are closing the ranks against the Brexiters. UK allies like Ireland, Denmark and Malta remain silent. Many countries had sent envoys in London to try to lure business back home and Beppe Grillo whose quite a dunce is cutting ties with Ukip. As said I am no expert and while I did work in politics, I hated it and it was quite a minor role (although I did work very close to a minister). However from my limited experience I can assure you that those aren’t encouraging signs.

I can see the EU offering a way out to the UK. They can’t just slam the door or else they will look bad. However I believe that it would be nothing more than a membership to the EEA with maybe some cosmetic changes which were also offered to Cameron. The UK will of course refuse and the two unions will part ways ‘amicable’ with the promise that new negotiations will set place once the UK is out of the EU. In reality both will be hoping that the other one will burn to the ground which will make it easier for them to get a better deal.
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Full deal in 2 years I agree is very unlikely... a transition agreement on key industries (finance, car manufacturers, food, immigration etc) I could see that with non agreed items going to wto rules whilst the rest of a deal completed over several tranches.
That would seem in the interest of both sides and even though it would be tough it's far more realistic than a full deal...
Though who knows right at the end of the article 50 process we might say f you all we are staying and blocking all legislation till you give us a deal... hopefully not but it's in nobody's interest for it to become too acrimonious though some conflict is inevitable I thnk
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/09/brexit-may-single-market-scotland-fears

Thought there was an odd comment in the article:
British exporters would face having tariffs worth £5bn imposed on their goods, Civitas said. But it said the government would raise £13bn from tariffs on imports which could fund an industrial strategy that would boost the manufacturing sector.

So British goods will be more expensive, yes apart from the reduction because of drop of sterling.
But the £13bn that would boost the manufacturing sector also does not take into account the exchange rate thus more than that but more importantly who pays the £13bn - the importers and thus the consumers.
 
This is a pretty correct how we, mainlanders, see this whole situation I guess. Found it rather funny. Asked my colleagues if they knew the difference between the UK and GB, none of them knew. The Olympics, football points have puzzled me too in the past.

 
sun_tzu said:
Would they...
Eea seems a pretty good option
I would have thought the 48% who voted remain would feel ok about that
A good chunk of those that didn't vote
And even those who voted to leave on the repeated promise that leaving the eu didn't mean leaving the single market
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I think it is and the EU won't be offering a stupid deal either. They don't want the whole world to think that the EU is a place were no one can get a good deal from especially after the horrible Canada deal PR.

Having said that I can see the UK refusing it and that's exactly what the EU will be banking on as they want the UK to leave and re-negotiate from a weaker position. Control over freedom of movement is of paramount importance to the UK and if they refuse a deal with Europe because of it, then it will be the UK who will look as the villain in the story not the EU.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Seems the national interest seems way down on every politician's agenda
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That's true. Hence why this 'politicians won't dare risking recession by kicking the UK out without a deal' idea is stupid. Brexit gave the EU leaders a reason why the voters stick to the EU (ie if Brexit prove disastrous) and a culprit if their own economy goes tits up.
 
devilish said:
The only alternative to that was an EEA membership
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I'm not sure about this alternative. I take it from various articles (Guardian, Independent and others) that at least four individuals have filed law suits to seek clarification if the UK were to become automatically an EEA member if they drop out of the EU without a deal in place. They are convinced that this is the case and a separate resignation (which is 12 months) to leave the EEA is necessary.
OTOH, EEA rules forsee that any new member must be approved also by current EEA members (Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein). Some Norwegian politicians have already expressed they don't want the UK to become a EEA member. The situation is legally and politically very unclear.

Also, with respect to a WTO deal, to my knowledge WTO tarrifs do not apply automatically if there's no deal in place after end of March 2019. The UK and the UK must still 'approve' that WTO tariffs will apply. Theoretically, one or both parties can still oppose.
 
sun_tzu said:
Would they...
Eea seems a pretty good option
I would have thought the 48% who voted remain would feel ok about that
A good chunk of those that didn't vote
And even those who voted to leave on the repeated promise that leaving the eu didn't mean leaving the single market
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I doubt it.

As a EEA member, you pay into the EU budget; for the UK, the Cameron government calculated that to be around 70-80% of what the UK currently pay (in summer, I linked to the report in this thread).

More importantly, freedom of movement is the very same as for EEA as for EU members. Also importantly, >50% of EU regulations and directives of the EU must still be implemented in national legislation - but contrary to being a EU member, you are nowhere represented around the negotiating table and have no vote, neither in the EU concil nor in EU parliament. You can lobby for your interests, but that's it.
 
Crossie said:
I'm not sure about this alternative. I take it from various articles (Guardian, Independent and others) that at least four individuals have filed law suits to seek clarification if the UK were to become automatically an EEA member if they drop out of the EU without a deal in place. They are convinced that this is the case and a separate resignation (which is 12 months) to leave the EEA is necessary.
OTOH, EEA rules forsee that any new member must be approved also by current EEA members (Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein). Some Norwegian politicians have already expressed they don't want the UK to become a EEA member. The situation is legally and politically very unclear.

Also, with respect to a WTO deal, to my knowledge WTO tarrifs do not apply automatically if there's no deal in place after end of March 2019. The UK and the UK must still 'approve' that WTO tariffs will apply. Theoretically, one or both parties can still oppose.
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The EU can't afford to let the UK leave empty handed without offering some sort of deal. Else they will look like a vindictive group who wants to punish the UK which would make it look bad with both the business and the politician's community. I think that an EEA will be the deal they will offer. The UK will find it difficult to refuse that and then ask for an alternative as the only reason to say no will be freedom of movement, which, lets face it, does sound a bit of a xenophobic argument.

Therefore a hard Brexit will occur with the EU coming out looking like the ones who tried to accomodate the British (+ the business community) and were actually turned down by the Tory government whose too fixated in stripping the rights of EU workers to negotiate anything sensible. Its naive to think that further negotiations won't occur but it would be with the UK being outside the EU, with the former in a much weaker position (no trade deals in place, still negotiating with the WTO etc) and with the business community (+ probably Scotland and Northern Ireland) furious with them.
 
Crossie said:
I doubt it.

As a EEA member, you pay into the EU budget; for the UK, the Cameron government calculated that to be around 70-80% of what the UK currently pay (in summer, I linked to the report in this thread).

More importantly, freedom of movement is the very same as for EEA as for EU members. Also importantly, >50% of EU regulations and directives of the EU must still be implemented in national legislation - but contrary to being a EU member, you are nowhere represented around the negotiating table and have no vote, neither in the EU concil nor in EU parliament. You can lobby for your interests, but that's it.
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Yeah, I can only see us heading for hard brexit now. I suspect the EU will ask for more than this anyway, otherwise they would be allowing us to bypass free movement with no signifcant extra cost.
 
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-may-media-is-misrepresenting-my-brexit-views

Theresa May has suggested the media are responsible for a slump in the value of the pound by wrongly claiming her views about Britain leaving the EU equate to a hard Brexit.

The prime minister was responding to a question about the negative market reaction to her comments on Sunday when she hinted that the UK would not be able to remain a full member of the European single market, but would instead have to negotiate a new trade deal.

Asked if the markets were getting her vision of Brexit wrong, or if she was getting it wrong, May replied: “I am tempted to say that the people who are getting it wrong are those who print things saying I’m talking about a hard Brexit, it is absolutely inevitable it is a hard Brexit. I don’t accept the terms soft and hard Brexit,” she said.
“What we are doing is going to get an ambitious, good and best possible deal for the United Kingdom in terms of trading with and operating within the European single market.”

May stressed it would have to be a “new relationship” because Britain would no longer be a member of the EU.

“We will be outside the European Union and therefore we will be negotiating a new relationship across not just trading but other areas with the European Union.”

I'd plump for this one
 
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