Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
sun_tzu said:
Well we pay the pensions anyway
And if they get medical treatment in Spain the Spanish government reclaims that money off the uk government/ NHS
I have a house in Spain I rent out actually and based on my experience there the majority seem to have private pensions on top of the state pension... so yeah honestly not much of a cost differential for the uk... plenty of economic arguments against brexit that are credible but that's not one of them
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Well not everyone share your optimism

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37586587

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-08-05/british-expats-in-french-town-bring-legal-challenge-to-brexit/

And I repeat if this plays in the UK favour why TM is so desperate to have it sorted? I mean its not as if they love EU immigrants very much
 
sun_tzu said:
Yeah out of interest ... have they met you?
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Oh comeon do you think that the likes of Boris, TM and Davis care about us EU expats, living in the UK or they wouldn't use us as a bargaining chip if they can? I've lost count of how many times we were demonised as the root of all evil. In matter of fact I constantly check my head and my arse to see if I got horns and a tail. No wonder why my nickname is devilish...:D
 
devilish said:
Oh comeon do you think that the likes of Boris, TM and Davis care about us EU expats, living in the UK or they wouldn't use us as a bargaining chip if they can? I've lost count of how many times we were demonised as the root of all evil. In matter of fact I constantly check my head and my arse to see if I got horns and a tail.
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Boris de pfeffel Johnson... born in the states, educated at the European school on Brussels with kids of Italian heritage... yeah I'd say there is a chance
 
devilish said:
If its such a big leverage for the UK then why are they so desperate to seal a deal on that? I mean its not as if the Brexiteers love EU expats very much.

So let me boil it down to this. Hordes of elderly English people are deported to the UK most of them very very angry. Since they weren't able to sell their houses they come mostly penniless so they will want a roof over their heads. Most are stressed and stress increase disease. This will put more strain over the NHS which is already struggling as it is. These former expats get angrier and then....the GE comes
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Delusional to say the least, now you are suggesting that UK pensioners resident in Europe will be asset stripped?

My view is that there is a global supply of resources ready to replace eastern european resources in the UK, whether they come from Mexico, South America, Asia.

The expat communities in Spain and portugal were already devastated following the global financial crisis and massive crash of the property market, yet you think they are ready to kick out the expat community?

It won't be sweetness and light in the Brexit negotiation, but the UK certainly doesn't have as weak bargaining position as you make out.

I'm totally fecked off with the negativity of the Remain campaign, it's pretty pathetic, if you don't have any faith just leave.
 
sun_tzu said:
Boris de pfeffel Johnson... born in the states, educated at the European school on Brussels with kids of Italian heritage... yeah I'd say there is a chance
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Hitler was an Austrian leading Germany, Stalin was a Georgian leading Russia, Farage has German ancestry and is married to a German with kids speaking German at home. Trump is married to a foreign lady. I wouldn't really play that card
 
Chorley1974 said:
Delusional to say the least, now you are suggesting that UK pensioners resident in Europe will be asset stripped?

My view is that there is a global supply of resources ready to replace eastern european resources in the UK, whether they come from Mexico, South America, Asia.

The expat communities in Spain and portugal were already devastated following the global financial crisis and massive crash of the property market, yet you think they are ready to kick out the expat community?

It won't be sweetness and light in the Brexit negotiation, but the UK certainly doesn't have as weak bargaining position as you make out.

I'm totally fecked off with the negativity of the Remain campaign, it's pretty pathetic, if you don't have any faith just leave.
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no, I am saying that they won't find adequate buyers for their assets which is different. Also this will be negotiated on an EU level. If the UK decides to kick all EU immigrants out then the EU will kick all UK citizens out.

Now I repeat, if this can be used as leverage then why is TM so desperate to sort this issue as quickly as possible? Do you think its because she likes us EU immigrants living in the UK?
 
devilish said:
Hitler was Austrian leading Germany, Stalin was Georgian leading Russia, Farage has German ancestry and is married to a German with kids speaking German at home. Trump is married to a foreign lady. I wouldn't really play that card
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Can I play the clueless malteaser card and if I do will you tell us about the third time you witnessed the hairdryer?
 
sun_tzu said:
Can I play the clueless malteaser card and if I do will you tell us about the third time you witnessed the hairdryer?
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if you go personal you'll have a bigger chance of winning the argument...:D

The two biggest mass murderers ever were foreigners in the country they lead (Stalin and Hitler). I am not suggesting that the Boris and co are like that. I am just saying that being a foreigner is someelses country doesn't make you less xenophobic then the locals

Seriously, if the Tory Party could use that as a leverage then it would have used it long ago. Its evident that its not the case.
 
@Chorley1974

When I moved to London, it was for a salary which was slightly better then what I already had. I moved not for the money but because I love the city (and I cant really stand the typical South European family), the UK manners which are virtually non existent in my country and the people who just mind their own business. Ill probably move back now although its not 100% definitive. I can easily do that as I got some good contacts in the country.

One piece of advice. When an expat worries so much about a foreign country its because he cares
 
devilish said:
@Chorley1974

When I moved to London, it was for a salary which was slightly better then what I already had. I moved not for the money but because I love the city (and I cant really stand the typical South European family), the UK manners which are virtually non existent in my country and the people who just mind their own business. Ill probably move back now although its not 100% definitive. I can easily do that as I got some good contacts in the country.

One piece of advice. When an expat worries so much about a foreign country its because he cares
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My leave advice was for UK folks, My bad I assumed you were UK national. If you choose to live abroad it's likely to be for a whole host of reasons, and often you have to take the rough with the smooth if you want to be there. I have a bit of a different perspective on immigration to a lot of UK nationals, due to being married to someone who isn't from the EU, there are shit loads more like her with a great work ethic willing to come from South America, I just don't see the low cost labour from eastern europe offering anything more.

When I see my local Romanian big issue seller commuting from Slough to my town, i do wander which country exactly is benefitting from this.
 
Is there any chance at all, however small, that May is playing a blinder and we will get single market without FOM?
 
Paul the Wolf said:
She's one of the leaders of the 27 other countries in the EU and has a veto
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Even better: Regional parliaments like Wallonia can veto if the ECJ follows the legal opinion of Advocate General Sharpston. :D
 
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Xeno said:
Is there any chance at all, however small, that May is playing a blinder and we will get single market without FOM?
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Not the tiniest chance. The equation is very simple. No FOM of people = no unrestricted access to the single market.

The outcome of a deal will depend on the concessions the UK are willing to make, and if there aren't willing to make any, then WTO it will be. WTO because as I've written earlier, the EEA member status isn't at all what the UK want:
It requires FOM of people, paying 70-80% of what they pay today into the EU budget, implentation of >50% of EU Regulations and Directives into national law but no vote, neither in EU council nor EU parliament, in those Directives and Regulations.

EDIT: It might be worthwhile to follow what's currently going on between Switzerland and the EU.
Switzerland and the EU have just bilateral contracts but even Switzerland needed to accept FOM of people, they pay into the EU budget and have to implement big parts of EU Directives and Regulations.
When Switzerland wanted to limit FOM of people, the EU considered this a violation of contracts which invalidates all contracts, therefore no more access to the single market. Switzerland paddled back and re-drafted the law which is currently reviewed by the EU if acceptable or not. AFAIK, the old draft law included quotas and restrictions for EU citizens which were removed in the draft currently under review.
 
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Chorley1974 said:
My leave advice was for UK folks, My bad I assumed you were UK national. If you choose to live abroad it's likely to be for a whole host of reasons, and often you have to take the rough with the smooth if you want to be there. I have a bit of a different perspective on immigration to a lot of UK nationals, due to being married to someone who isn't from the EU, there are shit loads more like her with a great work ethic willing to come from South America, I just don't see the low cost labour from eastern europe offering anything more.

When I see my local Romanian big issue seller commuting from Slough to my town, i do wander which country exactly is benefitting from this.
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Well good luck asking the South American countries unrestricted access to their markets in terms of money, good and services because that's what countries such as the UK also get from these EU countries. Its a big concession no one really wants to give so I much doubt that anyone would be interested in doing that unless of course you treat their own like your own people. You cant really expect countries to say, we treat your businesses like our own, we allow you unrestricted access to our money and to our market but.....you can discriminate on our people in favour of yours. That's why the EU think that what the UK is asking is silly
 
Crossie said:
Not the tiniest chance. The equation is very simple. No FOM of people = no unrestricted access to the single market.

The outcome of a deal will depend on the concessions the UK are willing to make, and if there aren't willing to make any, then WTO it will be. WTO because as I've written earlier, the EEA member status isn't at all what the UK want:
It requires FOM of people, paying 70-80% of what they pay today into the EU budget, implentation of >50% of EU Regulations and Directives into national law but no vote, neither in EU council nor EU parliament, in those Directives and Regulations.

EDIT: It might be worthwhile to follow what's currently going on between Switzerland and the EU.
Switzerland and the EU have just bilateral contracts but even Switzerland needed to accept FOM of people, they pay into the EU budget and have to implement big parts of EU Directives and Regulations.
When Switzerland wanted to limit FOM of people, the EU considered this a violation of contracts which invalidates all contracts, therefore no more access to the single market. Switzerland paddled back and re-drafted the law which is currently reviewed by the EU if acceptable or not. AFAIK, the old draft law included quotas and restrictions for EU citizens which were removed in the draft currently under review.
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Exactly, but you could repeat it a million times, and it will never sink in.
Brexiters think that because Germany are the biggest exporters to the UK, they are going to cave in and accept whatever terms May wants to implement, quite clearly this is not the case, nevermind what the other 26 countries will agree to.
 
I'd be interested to know how it would be possible for the EU to keep both Le Pen (in) and Farage (out) perfectly happy when they both want the EU to disappear.
 
jackofalltrades said:
I'd be interested to know how it would be possible for the EU to keep both Le Pen (in) and Farage (out) perfectly happy when they both want the EU to disappear.
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Le Pen wants to Leave as well as Farage. Assuming the UK leaves the EU, Farage will be irrelevant, which is why he's trying to cosy up to Trump.
Why should the EU need to keep them happy.
At present it looks as if the leading 3 in the french Presidential election will be Fillon, Le Pen and Macron, all three fairly close in the polls for the first round but in the order listed.

One of them won't make the second round, it could be Le Pen that doesn't make it and even if she did has a slim chance of winning outright. As we know you can't predict outcomes from recent experience.

The difference between the British voters and the French voters that don't like foreigners is that the British ones appear to dislike European immigrants but the French ones dislike other types of immigrants
 
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Crossie said:
Not the tiniest chance. The equation is very simple. No FOM of people = no unrestricted access to the single market.

The outcome of a deal will depend on the concessions the UK are willing to make, and if there aren't willing to make any, then WTO it will be. WTO because as I've written earlier, the EEA member status isn't at all what the UK want:
It requires FOM of people, paying 70-80% of what they pay today into the EU budget, implentation of >50% of EU Regulations and Directives into national law but no vote, neither in EU council nor EU parliament, in those Directives and Regulations.

EDIT: It might be worthwhile to follow what's currently going on between Switzerland and the EU.
Switzerland and the EU have just bilateral contracts but even Switzerland needed to accept FOM of people, they pay into the EU budget and have to implement big parts of EU Directives and Regulations.
When Switzerland wanted to limit FOM of people, the EU considered this a violation of contracts which invalidates all contracts, therefore no more access to the single market. Switzerland paddled back and re-drafted the law which is currently reviewed by the EU if acceptable or not. AFAIK, the old draft law included quotas and restrictions for EU citizens which were removed in the draft currently under review.
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Agree entirely. I'm sure May expects a hard brexit too.
 
I came out with three conclusions

a- the UK is very confident of getting the deal they want
b- the UK is resigned/doesn't want access to the single market
c- the UK is lead by idiots.
 
  • Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, has said that a Brexit deal that jeopardised trade between the UK and Germany would be “the height of insanity”. Taking questions in the Commons he said:
As you will know very well there is now a big operation going on by UKTI (UK Trade & Investment), by British diplomacy to point out the salient facts that German investment in this country is responsible for about 344,000 jobs here in the UK, UK investment in Germany is responsible for 222,000 jobs. It would be the height of insanity to imperil either of those sets of investments.

Perhaps he should have thought of this previously
 
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