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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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  • Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, has said that a Brexit deal that jeopardised trade between the UK and Germany would be “the height of insanity”. Taking questions in the Commons he said:
As you will know very well there is now a big operation going on by UKTI (UK Trade & Investment), by British diplomacy to point out the salient facts that German investment in this country is responsible for about 344,000 jobs here in the UK, UK investment in Germany is responsible for 222,000 jobs. It would be the height of insanity to imperil either of those sets of investments.

Perhaps he should have thought of this previously

He is personally responsible for imperilling the feck out of them. The devious prick.
 
Le Pen wants to Leave as well as Farage. Assuming the UK leaves the EU, Farage will be irrelevant, which is why he's trying to cosy up to Trump.
Why should the EU need to keep them happy.
At present it looks as if the leading 3 in the french Presidential election will be Fillon, Le Pen and Macron, all three fairly close in the polls for the first round but in the order listed.

One of them won't make the second round, it could be Le Pen that doesn't make it and even if she did has a slim chance of winning outright. As we know you can't predict outcomes from recent experience.

The difference between the British voters and the French voters that don't like foreigners is that the British ones appear to dislike European immigrants but the French ones dislike other types of immigrants

Evne if any of those far right people win, the most you can expect is to add additional layers of security to the borders in the schengen area like passport checkpoints. None of them are stupid enough to leave the EU market over it.
 
  • Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, has said that a Brexit deal that jeopardised trade between the UK and Germany would be “the height of insanity”. Taking questions in the Commons he said:
As you will know very well there is now a big operation going on by UKTI (UK Trade & Investment), by British diplomacy to point out the salient facts that German investment in this country is responsible for about 344,000 jobs here in the UK, UK investment in Germany is responsible for 222,000 jobs. It would be the height of insanity to imperil either of those sets of investments.

Perhaps he should have thought of this previously
I'm not sure that Johnson ever undergoes something that deserves the term 'thinking'. He seems to be entirely driven by reflex, instinct, gut-feeling and emotions and a big desire for being the center of attention.
 
If you mean access to the single market but not having FoM - then the answer is yes, as it's not possible

No I am not saying that. What I am referring to are trade deals with non EU countries that can compensate/better the one the UK has with the EU. I much doubt it though
 
I don't think there's any chance of a trade deal now because Poland et al will not budge from demanding free movement. After a hard brexit however the picture changes, the Polands would have nothing further to lose on movement, and the question then would be whether a new deal would be mutually beneficial or not. I'd expect that to be some time further on, with a lot of damage done in the meantime, more so to Britain than the EU of course, but it's a scenario I can envisage.
 
Evne if any of those far right people win, the most you can expect is to add additional layers of security to the borders in the schengen area like passport checkpoints. None of them are stupid enough to leave the EU market over it.
They're already doing that in holland
 
I don't think there's any chance of a trade deal now because Poland et al will not budge from demanding free movement. After a hard brexit however the picture changes, the Polands would have nothing further to lose on movement, and the question then would be whether a new deal would be mutually beneficial or not. I'd expect that to be some time further on, with a lot of damage done in the meantime, more so to Britain than the EU of course, but it's a scenario I can envisage.

So lets say Brexit damages the EU badly. Why on earth would the EU handle a good deal to a country who had just pushed the entire union into a recession purely out of xenophobic reasons (you might agree on that or not but that is what most EU people are seeing it)? Why wouldn't it exploit its weakness by lets say handle it a bad deal or even try and convince Scotland, Northern Ireland and co to leave the UK?

I think that the UK is burning alot of bridges with Europe which will take decades to mend.
 
  • Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary, has said that a Brexit deal that jeopardised trade between the UK and Germany would be “the height of insanity”. Taking questions in the Commons he said:
As you will know very well there is now a big operation going on by UKTI (UK Trade & Investment), by British diplomacy to point out the salient facts that German investment in this country is responsible for about 344,000 jobs here in the UK, UK investment in Germany is responsible for 222,000 jobs. It would be the height of insanity to imperil either of those sets of investments.

Perhaps he should have thought of this previously

That's hardly an anti-Brexit argument. It's a 'Both Germany and Britain have a lot at stake, so let's all be reasonable about a post-Brexit trade agreement argument.'
 
That's hardly an anti-Brexit argument. It's a 'Both Germany and Britain have a lot at stake, so let's all be reasonable about a post-Brexit trade agreement argument.'

I wonder if it's a good plan though because the other countries who have the same vote than Germany might think that for the UK only Germany counts.
 
That's hardly an anti-Brexit argument. It's a 'Both Germany and Britain have a lot at stake, so let's all be reasonable about a post-Brexit trade agreement argument.'

Unfortunately its not up to Germany but to all 27 eu nations. Unlike the uk were england command and the rest follow the eu works with the consent of every single eu country and region
 
I wonder if it's a good plan though because the other countries who have the same vote than Germany might think that for the UK only Germany counts.
Furthermore, the UK might overestimate Germany's love for Britain. There are a number of issues where Germany is much closer to France and other EU member states.
 
Furthermore, the UK might overestimate Germany's love for Britain. There are a number of issues where Germany is much closer to France and other EU member states.

I was going to tag you, you are right Germany and France are pretty close. I also noticed that German politicians are fairly strict when it comes to EU principles, they will probably be the most difficult to convince.
 
Unfortunately its not up to Germany but to all 27 eu nations. Unlike the uk were england command and the rest follow the eu works with the consent of every single eu country and region

Yep. The best recipe for rigor mortis ever conceived. How politicians convinced themselves such an arrangement was a sensible way to run the affairs of Europe's peoples.....?

It's ironic that the torturous protocols of Britain's departure will shine a light on the sclerotic institution she's leaving behind.
 
I don't think there's any chance of a trade deal now because Poland et al will not budge from demanding free movement. After a hard brexit however the picture changes, the Polands would have nothing further to lose on movement, and the question then would be whether a new deal would be mutually beneficial or not. I'd expect that to be some time further on, with a lot of damage done in the meantime, more so to Britain than the EU of course, but it's a scenario I can envisage.

I am very doubtful as to whether the UK can have its cake and eat it but is it wholly unrealistic to expect some kind of fudged immigration deal to ensure free market access? Something that would allow the UK government to save face (as the Swiss recently did when they retained a few restrictions while basically ignoring the 2014 referendum result) but still allows a significant degree of right to work? Or something closer to what Cameron wanted earlier this year? In any case, the UK does have leverage beyond "we buy German cars". For example, with Vlad's buddy now in the White House, does Poland really want to alienate the UK?
 
Yep. The best recipe for rigor mortis ever conceived. How politicians convinced themselves such an arrangement was a sensible way to run the affairs of Europe's peoples.....?

It's ironic that the torturous protocols of Britain's departure will shine a light on the sclerotic institution she's leaving behind.

There is no other alternatives since the EU isn't a country every member is sovereign.
 
So lets say Brexit damages the EU badly. Why on earth would the EU handle a good deal to a country who had just pushed the entire union into a recession purely out of xenophobic reasons (you might agree on that or not but that is what most EU people are seeing it)? Why wouldn't it exploit its weakness by lets say handle it a bad deal or even try and convince Scotland, Northern Ireland and co to leave the UK?

I think that the UK is burning alot of bridges with Europe which will take decades to mend.

Any future deal would obviously have to be mutually beneficial, and I did make the point that it would have to be some time further on.
 
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I am very doubtful as to whether the UK can have its cake and eat it but is it wholly unrealistic to expect some kind of fudged immigration deal to ensure free market access? Something that would allow the UK government to save face (as the Swiss recently did when they retained a few restrictions while basically ignoring the 2014 referendum result) but still allows a significant degree of right to work? Or something closer to what Cameron wanted earlier this year? In any case, the UK does have leverage beyond "we buy German cars". For example, with Vlad's buddy now in the White House, does Poland really want to alienate the UK?

What do you have in mind exactly?
 
I am very doubtful as to whether the UK can have its cake and eat it but is it wholly unrealistic to expect some kind of fudged immigration deal to ensure free market access? Something that would allow the UK government to save face (as the Swiss recently did when they retained a few restrictions while basically ignoring the 2014 referendum result) but still allows a significant degree of right to work? Or something closer to what Cameron wanted earlier this year? In any case, the UK does have leverage beyond "we buy German cars". For example, with Vlad's buddy now in the White House, does Poland really want to alienate the UK?

None of us can be 100% sure (though there's a few that think they can), I just can't see it myself. The UK would still be in Nato of course.
Then again I suppose you could ask how many of us foresaw Brexit and Trump? :)
 
There is no other alternatives since the EU isn't a country every member is sovereign.

The European Union is like the Holy Trinity - three persons in one God, separate but indivisible, etc.

But the EU is not an exercise in theological metaphysics, but an institution which has to run the affairs of hundred of millions of people. Its inherent contradictions have real, and damaging, consequences for its citizens.
 
". For example, with Vlad's buddy now in the White House, does Poland really want to alienate the UK?

With trump being putin best mate does that matter? Do you really think the uk will involve itself in any sort of conflict the us doesnt give its go ahead first? Its 2017 not 1930s
 
What do you have in mind exactly?

Good question. Probably a window dressing solution where you have to consider first (advertise the position to) British candidates, even though 99% of the time you end up hiring the EU candidate. Things must change so that things can stay the same....
 
Good question. Probably a window dressing solution where you have to consider first (advertise the position to) British candidates, even though 99% of the time you end up hiring the EU candidate. Things must change so that things can stay the same....

It will only further alienate the uk voter and postpone the inevitable. I think de gaulle was right. The uk shouldnt be in europe. I hope that they get a deal similar to canada (copy and paste) but thats all
 
With trump being putin best mate does that matter? Do you really think the uk will involve itself in any sort of conflict the us doesnt give its go ahead first? Its 2017 not 1930s

As of today, no. But that's not really the point. For Poland and the three tiny Baltic states (who, as you are keen to remind us, have the same veto right, as Germany), the election of Trump means they are now in a world of at best, realpolitik, and, at worse, Berlusconi-esque venality. In such circumstances, it would not be surprising if their attitude towards the EU negotiations with the UK were influenced by different factors than if it were Hilary in charge.
 
As of today, no. But that's not really the point. For Poland and the three tiny Baltic states (who, as you are keen to remind us, have the same veto right, as Germany), the election of Trump means they are now in a world of at best, realpolitik, and, at worse, Berlusconi-esque venality. In such circumstances, it would not be surprising if their attitude towards the EU negotiations with the UK were influenced by different factors than if it were Hilary in charge.
From a realpolik POV surely those states best interest is a continuation of the EU, something which if Brexit is an astounding success would be brought into further question.
 
It will only further alienate the uk voter and postpone the inevitable. I think de gaulle was right. The uk shouldnt be in europe. I hope that they get a deal similar to canada (copy and paste) but thats all

It was only a 4% margin and, being blunt, a fair chunk of those leavers will be dead in the next 10-15 years. It would be a political highwire act but, with Labour currently a circus, I think it is doable without committing political suicide.
 
It was only a 4% margin and, being blunt, a fair chunk of those leavers will be dead in the next 10-15 years. It would be a political highwire act but, with Labour currently a circus, I think it is doable without committing political suicide.
Just under 2% margin. But while Labour is a shambles, the Tory party has a tiny majority that would certainly be lost if they piss off the rural racists.
 
I am very doubtful as to whether the UK can have its cake and eat it but is it wholly unrealistic to expect some kind of fudged immigration deal to ensure free market access? Something that would allow the UK government to save face (as the Swiss recently did when they retained a few restrictions while basically ignoring the 2014 referendum result) but still allows a significant degree of right to work? Or something closer to what Cameron wanted earlier this year? In any case, the UK does have leverage beyond "we buy German cars". For example, with Vlad's buddy now in the White House, does Poland really want to alienate the UK?
I was referring to the Swiss case earlier today. As I understand their new law, it's nothing that goes anywhere near face-saving, and if the UK follow that path, it would not deliver any of the promises made by Brexiters. The changes are of cosmetic nature and apparently the EU still review whether it is acceptable.
 
I've always thought rural people shouldn't be allowed to vote personally. After all, they couldn't possibly be in daily contact with enough people to form a valid opinion.
It is true though, you're more likely to be homophobic or xenophobic or whatever else the fewer gay or foreign or whatever else people you meet. And the conservative party caters to those people. Nothing to do with taking away their votes, just the reality of why politicians say the things they do in the forums they say them. Labour actively targets the working classes and urban areas with their messaging, Greens have the dirty hippies and so on.
 
The government is in a tricky situation because although UKIP claim the credit for Brexit, the Tories have got the responsibilties. Whatever happens - soft or hard Brexit, if it leads to significant and /or rapid economic decline, no decrease or even an increase in immigation, they will be held accountable. UKIP will just be able to sit back like vultures and say "Well, vote us in and we'll sort it out"

Of course if people just perceived Brexit as a bad mistake, it'd be a different story but one that would lead to more uncertainty with four incompetent parties vying for power plus the problem of revoking the invoking of article 50:eek: It's not even clear if that could be done or whether new conditions could be set - such as joining the Eurozone. :eek::eek::eek:
 
I was going to tag you, you are right Germany and France are pretty close. I also noticed that German politicians are fairly strict when it comes to EU principles, they will probably be the most difficult to convince.
I was thinking of issues like a common EU defense policy, a harmonized foreign policy, acceptance of more intervention of a state into the economy compared to the UK, more protection of workers' rights compared to the UK, a certain level of state welfare, etc.

These were issues where the UK often held very different positions. Hence, once the UK leave, we might see faster progress on these fields of EU policies.
 
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Good question. Probably a window dressing solution where you have to consider first (advertise the position to) British candidates, even though 99% of the time you end up hiring the EU candidate. Things must change so that things can stay the same....

It's already the case in most countries.

The European Union is like the Holy Trinity - three persons in one God, separate but indivisible, etc.

But the EU is not an exercise in theological metaphysics, but an institution which has to run the affairs of hundred of millions of people. Its inherent contradictions have real, and damaging, consequences for its citizens.

You have not answered the question, the EU isn't a country, every member is sovereign. So how do you take important decisions without having the approval of everyone?
 
As of today, no. But that's not really the point. For Poland and the three tiny Baltic states (who, as you are keen to remind us, have the same veto right, as Germany), the election of Trump means they are now in a world of at best, realpolitik, and, at worse, Berlusconi-esque venality. In such circumstances, it would not be surprising if their attitude towards the EU negotiations with the UK were influenced by different factors than if it were Hilary in charge.

If the US commands the UK to jump it will keep on jumping till it does of exhaustion. Even now, Boris had to go begging at Trump's feet for a trade deal and that after previously saying that he doesn't go New York because he risk meeting him there.

Eastern Europe should stop provoking Russia by treating Russian speaking citizens differently. Russia is our neighbour and we should respect it. There again, I think Brexit will strengthen their hand rather then weakening it. With the UK having zero influence over Europe, the EU can move to an EU army without risking the veto