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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


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Let her explain to the electorate what leaving with no deal actually means , actually tell the truth. She can't and she won't because the reality is too scary for the UK
a fair point, though im sure a large portion wouldn't really understand it, myself possibly included.

so you think May when pressed what she will do if the EU doesn't offer a fair deal should just say we will take whatever they offer as we need to?
 
No one in Europe knows exactly what the UK is brewing up. Maybe the UK was planning to join NAFTA or it could build an economy which was similar to Singapore. Europe might think that its a crazy thing to do. There again, the UK is known to venture into new territories, sometimes of which it turned quite well for them (ie colonialism for example)

My point is that the UK should have never activated article 50 without a plan and without any solid assurances that that their plan can and will work + it will be supported by both the majority of stakeholders within and outside the UK. Article 50 is stacked heavily against the leaver. There's no space for trial and error.

Isn't Amazing that this is even a reality. If I told you a year ago that we would leave the EU with no exit strategy or plan or ANYTHING you would have laughed me off the forum as a nutter :lol:
 
That's something no one really believed or cared about in the first place. The UK had never really cultivated any interest in building allies within the EU. Quite the contrary, they spent their time within the EU insulting MEPs or/and accusing the EU of everything.

Those who were traditionally pro UK (Malta, Holland etc) were shocked with the UK calling for a referendum on Brexit. They considered it as a catfight between the Tory party that got out of hand and a betrayal towards them and their combined interest. Once Brexit was won, these countries (now a minority) were quick to build alliances with others knowing that the UK won't be there for long.

In my opinion, the UK should have had the decency to start negotiations with a plan in mind and sufficient backup at home to implement it. The EU might not be the most flexible thing around but it does offer alot of different deals (EU Membership, EEA membership, Customs unions, Swiss like bilaterial agreements, a CETA like trade deal etc) which were tried and tested and were relatively easy for both parties to implement. Instead the UK went for a bold and new relationship (the EU calls it cherry picking), no one can really comprehend and which is heavily stacked towards the junior partner. That's a bit of a problem since it gave space for individual countries to come out with their own list that they want implemented. Its very difficult to come out with a deal which make 28 countries happy.
A very good point!
 
No one in Europe knows exactly what the UK is brewing up. Maybe the UK was planning to join NAFTA or it could build an economy which was similar to Singapore. Europe might think that its a crazy thing to do. There again, the UK is known to venture into new territories, sometimes of which it turned quite well for them (ie colonialism for example)

My point is that the UK should have never activated article 50 without a plan and without any solid assurances that that their plan can and will work + it will be supported by both the majority of stakeholders within and outside the UK. Article 50 is stacked heavily against the leaver. There's no space for trial and error.
it is mental that we activated article 50 and then called a general election......... surely it should have been the other way around.
 
it is mental that we activated article 50 and then called a general election......... surely it should have been the other way around.

Negotiations cannot start in earnest until the late summer/early autumn due to French elections, the July summer break for EU officials and the German elections. The UK general election doesn't make any great difference.

You've seen the idiot in charge, right? Looks a bit like Cruella, tough on the branding of seasonal children's activities, flexible on selling bombs to the Saudis?

Or we could have someone who is genuinely clueless in charge who wanted to invoke Article 50 the day after the referendum. Know anyone like that?
 
You've seen the idiot in charge, right? Looks a bit like Cruella, tough on the branding of seasonal children's activities, flexible on selling bombs to the Saudis?
still mental, even by her standards, she basically spends 8 months getting ready to be at the stage where she thinks she is ready to to activate article 50 then... then calls a general election becos she has high opinion polls, even though she said she wouldn't.......... nuts!
 
Isn't Amazing that this is even a reality. If I told you a year ago that we would leave the EU with no exit strategy or plan or ANYTHING you would have laughed me off the forum as a nutter :lol:

I love this country, I seriously do. I think that the UK has the best education in the world and London feels like the centre of the world. The city is absolutely stunning when sunny and it gives the impression that anything is possible in here.

However, I was shocked how ignorant people are about EU matters. These posturing and these strong words may work in Westminster but will be interpreted as threats and insults in Europe. I noticed it the same reaction in Europe (and also Malta) where the UK citizens would go very hard in their criticism (which is normal here) on society as a whole only to feel shocked when they are told that 'if they don't like it' they can always go back were they came from if they don't like it. Many countries take things personal and are insulted by certain comments made. Take Farage for example. You don't say an Italian that the European parliament (whose got an Italian guy as chair) acts like the Mafia. That's extremely insulting.

Irrespective of how strong or weak the UK hand is, its almost impossible for it to get a good deal unless it learns how Europe works. The UK must also understand that the EU can never give the UK a deal that is better off then the one it already has. I mean, seriously, would you give Scotland a better deal to the one it has if it decides to leave the union?
 
a fair point, though im sure a large portion wouldn't really understand it, myself possibly included.

so you think May when pressed what she will do if the EU doesn't offer a fair deal should just say we will take whatever they offer as we need to?

Yes it will be highly complex, and probably no-one exists who would know all the implications. But the basics can be explained to a degree but every time someone tries to explain either they are accused of scaremongering or "we've had enough of experts". They should sit down and discuss the best outcome for both sides but the EU have more clout than the UK so inevitably the UK will not end up with as good a deal as they have at present.
 
You seem to take political and negotiating rhetoric as truth when it is simply posturing from both sides.

I'm certain a transition deal similar to the one outlined below will happen.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexi...ainer-theresa-may-article-50-2017-4?r=US&IR=T

I still think so too. At the end of the day it's in the best interests of the EU and (in particular) the UK to reach a deal.
It's just a shame that we have to endure wankers like May & Junker comming out with all this bullshit. It's also a shame to have the endure the ignorance of the British public towards the EU and the continent.
 
Negotiations cannot start in earnest until the late summer/early autumn due to French elections, the July summer break for EU officials and the German elections. The UK general election doesn't make any great difference.
course it does, why didnt the UK activate article 50 the day after the referendum, becuase we where not in anyway a position to do it, May spent 8 months or so take her time to work out the direction she wants to go with Brexit, i may not think she has a good plan or much of a plan at all, but i at least give her credit for not rushing into it, she then after much legal wrangling, activates article 50, then after she said she wouldn't she calls a general election....... this should have happened last year, all parties putting their opinions as to the way forward, people vote then the party who won could have spent the next 6 months to a year getting organised with a clear plan, plus back up plans before activating article 50.

What may is doing now is playing politics exactly what she accused them SMP of doing, take away who you support from the matter, take away what your position is on Brexit, should a country be thinking about changing government just before the biggest negotiations since then end of WW2 start?
 
Yes it will be highly complex, and probably no-one exists who would know all the implications. But the basics can be explained to a degree but every time someone tries to explain either they are accused of scaremongering or "we've had enough of experts". They should sit down and discuss the best outcome for both sides but the EU have more clout than the UK so inevitably the UK will not end up with as good a deal as they have at present.
i agree with everything you just said, but you didnt really answer my question?
so you think May when pressed what she will do if the EU doesn't offer a fair deal should just say we will take whatever they offer as we need to?
 
None of this fallout is too surprising and some of it is even recycled. When May was running for leader last summer, she responded in front of the 1922 committee to criticism that she was a "bloody difficult woman" by saying "Yes, I am a bloody difficult woman, and the next person to find out will be Jean-Claude Juncker". Juncker meanwhile comes across like like a parody of everything the British instintively dislike about the EU, with extra points for coming from some Ruritania that largely exists for tax avoidance.
 
it is mental that we activated article 50 and then called a general election......... surely it should have been the other way around.

In my opinion, the UK should have gone for an EEA form of deal which would have allowed the UK unrestricted access to the single market while being able to seal its own trade deals. It would serve as a golden opportunity for the Tory party to actually bother reading the rules attentively and implement every rule in that book that are meant to limit anyone abusing of his rights as an EU citizen.

By doing so the government will still respect the will of the people without shooting at its own feet. Once outside the EU the UK would be in a position to seal trade deals with third countries at its own leasure and from a stronger position (ie they can still rely on an unrestricted access to the single market)

Meanwhile the EU would be happy that this problem is sorted once and for all and that they can now focus on things that truly matter (ie like a potential Russian invasion)
 
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i agree with everything you just said, but you didnt really answer my question?
so you think May when pressed what she will do if the EU doesn't offer a fair deal should just say we will take whatever they offer as we need to?

The problem is that she's answering a question she doesn't need to (and shouldn't) answer. It's the same as with the Gibraltar issue. Obviously if anyone threatened militarily the sovereignty of a Britain possession we would respond in kind, but no serious person would raise that over Spain because it's idiotic. All May needed to do was insist that she'll fight hard for a good deal, because everyone already knows no deal is totally unacceptable to both sides. She's basically in a posh restaurant and after walking in announcing that if the food isn't good she'll just walk out after without paying. There are situations where that would perhaps happen, but it's a last case scenario and bringing it up sounds completely uncultured and infantile.
 
I love this country, I seriously do. I think that the UK has the best education in the world and London feels like the centre of the world. The city is absolutely stunning when sunny and it gives the impression that anything is possible in here.

However, I was shocked how ignorant people are about EU matters. These posturing and these strong words may work in Westminster but will be interpreted as threats and insults in Europe. I noticed it the same reaction in Europe (and also Malta) where the UK citizens would go very hard in their criticism (which is normal here) on society as a whole only to feel shocked when they are told that 'if they don't like it' they can always go back were they came from if they don't like it. Many countries take things personal and are insulted by certain comments made. Take Farage for example. You don't say an Italian that the European parliament (whose got an Italian guy as chair) acts like the Mafia. That's extremely insulting.

Irrespective of how strong or weak the UK hand is, its almost impossible for it to get a good deal unless it learns how Europe works. The UK must also understand that the EU can never give the UK a deal that is better off then the one it already has. I mean, seriously, would you give Scotland a better deal to the one it has if it decides to leave the union?

exactly where is the incentive to stay

"Join our club and if you leave you will get a better deal and still get to use our facilities"

What the actual feck were people expecting lol
 
i agree with everything you just said, but you didnt really answer my question?
so you think May when pressed what she will do if the EU doesn't offer a fair deal should just say we will take whatever they offer as we need to?

Both sides will have to make some compromises. It depends what she considers a bad deal, if she wants the single market, passport rights and so on, then the EU have already said what needs to happen regarding the freedoms, contributions and EU law covering transactions between the two. But accepting those kind of things will not appease the hard brexiters.
I don't see how she can keep everyone happy.
If both sides can't agree then it will end up as a hard break. In the end no-one will win.
 
May's actually gone totally nuts. What a mess this is going to be.
 
Who in God's fecking name told her that speech was a good idea? Form "Brussels gossip" to full blown conspiracy in less than 24 hours. What the feck has this country come to when this weapon is going to ripped to win a landslide victory?
 
Saw this comment on the guardian. Thought it was a joke at first.
Terrific speech from May.
You have to wonder at the sheer ineptitude of the hapless EU. They are alienating what little support they have left in this country and strengthening May's hand.
I can't see the country being sypathetic to us giving them foreign aid now.
 
I just can't see the logic in her calling out the EU today. Sure it might gain her a few votes but the election is all but wrapped up and we badly need these trade talks to go well.
 
Think this is worth remembering.



I think that is a bad take. It completely ignores the context of May's remark - which is a culmination of her "being in another galaxy". Plus EU politicians don't fight elections on the basis of negotiating to leave the EU.
 
I just can't see the logic in her calling out the EU today. Sure it might gain her a few votes but the election is all but wrapped up and we badly need these trade talks to go well.

There's five weeks of campaigning left before the election, with an increasing amount of flak falling on British soil from across the channel.

I suspect recent events have caused May and her advisors to revise their political calculations. No doubt they hoped to get through the campaign without saying any very hard things about Europe, which might have created a bad atmosphere when real negotiations begin.

But given all the shit that's coming their way from Europe, they've changed their minds. Lying down while every Euro pol or bureaucrat who feels like it has a kick at them, all the while telling the British people: " It's all right, they don't really mean it, they're just pretending, they're very nice people really" is not a spectacle which is likely to endear them to the electorate. It makes May and her government look weak, and might raise serious concerns among voters about whether they had the guts to stand up for British interests in the face of intimidation.
 
It should be quite simple, shouldn't it ?

All the UK needs to do is say to the EU -

' OK...Show us where it says in the rules that anyone leaving the EU has to pay to leave, and would it be the case that if, say, Poland or Bulgaria decided to leave, they'd still get their € 40 billion each year ( or wharever amount it is ) of subsidies for the next few years after they've left ? '

Then the UK should politely ask for a breakdown of the bill that the EU wants the UK to settle.

Nothing wrong with that approach....Well, not as far as I can see

Well this has been clarified today, hasn't it?
 
I think that is a bad take. It completely ignores the context of May's remark - which is a culmination of her "being in another galaxy". Plus EU politicians don't fight elections on the basis of negotiating to leave the EU.

Almost every major leader in Europe is facing a challenge from the far right populists. They'll all have felt that drag to the right, regardless of how they each dealt with it.

This is more like Cameron's veto, self defeating perhaps and a notable moment, but not the historic declaration of war that most of twitter is making out.
 
I see it a lot in the last pages but no one actually explain what they consider to be a fair deal. Also why people have this misconceived idea that the EU want to offer an unfair deal?
 
I really scratch my head at people that think a trade war would be anything but a disaster for the UK economy, our workers and our services.

I'm not sure what you mean by "trade war". If we traded with the EU paying the WTO most favoured rates, this would hurt the EU more than us, see as we import from EU countries more than we export, and therefore the fee we pay the EU could be potentially be used to offset our export tariffs with money to spare.

If what you're suggesting happens, we lose our financial institutions and multinational investments who will relocate to Germany and France so they can avoid trade war tarriffs. We lose loads of jobs and tax income and become poorer as a nation.

On the finance side, the big corporates will wait and see how things pan out. What you're assuming is an absolute worst case scenario which is unlikely.

As for trading with other countries we're actually in a worse position because we've torn up a load of free trade agreements that the EU agreed so we'd trade less with other countries.

It would not take long to arrange new deals with other nations, but it would depend on how eager these other nations are to get it done.


As for the riculous "but can be part funded from the money saved from our lack of membership", no Tory goverment is funding private businesses for the protectionism of other countries, it's against their political ethos and mathematically it wouldn't begin to cover it. If the UK wants a trade agreement with the EU they will have to pay a similar amount to what they were paying into the EU as a member.

This will hurt the EU nation state economies more than us, as I've already stated that they sell more to us than we sell to them, leaving them paying more tariffs than us.
 
This will hurt the EU nation state economies more than us, as I've already stated that they sell more to us than we sell to them, leaving them paying more tariffs than us.

The thing is the UK doesn't produce things that aren't already on the continent, which means that tarrifs will make UK goods and services less competitive from within the EU and will make EU goods and services more attractive from within the EU. But the opposite isn't true since the UK do not produce all the goods and services produced within the EU, so they will still have to purchase them but with tarrifs whether it is to the EU or to someone else..
 
The thing is the UK doesn't produce things that aren't already on the continent, which means that tarrifs will make UK goods and services less competitive from within the EU and will make EU goods and services more attractive from within the EU. But the opposite isn't true since the UK do not produce all the goods and services produced within the EU, so they will still have to purchase them but with tarrifs whether it is to the EU or to someone else..

Tariffs are placed on what you sell. Therefore the EU countries can still buy from us at the same rate. However, they rely on our custom. 8% of German cars are bought by us, and that's a huge market that BMW &VW etc will not want disturbed.
 
What people in this thread do not understand is that the UK's bargaining position with the EU is VERY VERY strong, and European nations can either mutually benefit with us from sensible negotiations, or the EU can hurt both us and our European partners for the sake of the EU's agenda to gain more influence for it's own purpose.
 
What people in this thread do not understand is that the UK's bargaining position with the EU is VERY VERY strong, and European nations can either mutually benefit with us from sensible negotiations, or the EU can hurt both us and our European partners for the sake of the EU's agenda to gain more influence for it's own purpose.

Its really not the case
 
Continued silence or a submissive air is hardly to our benefit, so i have no problem with May putting down such a marker. The two sides are poles apart on this divorce bill in any event, and i'd far rather the focus were on citizen rights.


The report leaked few days ago makes this scenario unlikely. They don't trust her.

How could they talk about trust after the leak and ensuing remarks? The negotiations are in their very infancy, and even the editor of the pro-EU Financial Times has said that the damage to personal relations could be irrevocable.
 
I see it a lot in the last pages but no one actually explain what they consider to be a fair deal. Also why people have this misconceived idea that the EU want to offer an unfair deal?

Fair deal:

  • A deal which maximizes the economic and other interests of both parties.
  • A deal which recognizes Europe's legitimate desire to maintain the exclusive nature of EU membership and the privileges associated with it.
  • A deal which is not influenced by any consideration of 'punishing' the UK for leaving the Union.
 
I love this country, I seriously do. I think that the UK has the best education in the world and London feels like the centre of the world. The city is absolutely stunning when sunny and it gives the impression that anything is possible in here.

However, I was shocked how ignorant people are about EU matters. These posturing and these strong words may work in Westminster but will be interpreted as threats and insults in Europe. I noticed it the same reaction in Europe (and also Malta) where the UK citizens would go very hard in their criticism (which is normal here) on society as a whole only to feel shocked when they are told that 'if they don't like it' they can always go back were they came from if they don't like it. Many countries take things personal and are insulted by certain comments made. Take Farage for example. You don't say an Italian that the European parliament (whose got an Italian guy as chair) acts like the Mafia. That's extremely insulting.

Irrespective of how strong or weak the UK hand is, its almost impossible for it to get a good deal unless it learns how Europe works. The UK must also understand that the EU can never give the UK a deal that is better off then the one it already has. I mean, seriously, would you give Scotland a better deal to the one it has if it decides to leave the union?

It is just the people who live here you can't stand or it must be a Fifty Shades of Grey type of love.