Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
sullydnl said:
Obviously not but not everything is about opinion. Some things are either factually correct or incorrect and getting that right is far more reflective of intelligence than being able to name things that feel correct or incorrect.

For example, one of the factors mentioned in the piece you posted was "the promise of additional healthcare funding". That isn't actually going to happen is it? In which case the people who found it easy to name that as a major benefit of Brexit are more wrong than the people who could only name minor, petty benefits of staying. Yet the latter are who you criticise for lacking intelligence?

I'm not even talking about the broader debate, just that the message you drew from the piece you posted was weird.
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You're right - I thought it was weird as well, and is why I posted it.

If the most common answer had been 'Ability to live in another country' or ' EU membership is good for UK Trade ' then I could perhaps understand.

By the way - I said those who replied with those stupid answers may be intellectually lacking - not lacking intelligence. Always thought the difference between intelligence and intellect is that our current cat is far more intelligent than our previous cat, but cat's don't have intellect. At least, not as far as I'm aware.

As for the Healthcare funding - who knows ? When the UK's contributions end, there'll be another €12 billion or so available for public spending, some of which may go to the NHS, some of which most probably won't. Too early to tell. But whichever Govenment is in power in 2019, they'll have another €12 bllion plus ( heaven forbid ) possible import tarrifs to spend as they want / need. It really is unrealistic to expect the Government to start spending that €12 billion immediately when they haven't actually got those savings yet. So yes, those you speak of may ultimately be proven to have been wrong, post-2019, but not yet.
 
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Full bodied red said:
No they're not.

The biggest percentage of Leave voters in the UK, outside London, was Scotland - who Wee Krankie says are going to stay in the EU, doesn't she ? And even if she can't, all she needs to do is bring Scotland in line with England on Tuition Fees and Prescription costs and she will be able to continue supporting those in Scotland who have got used to living out of the EU's pocket.

Anyway....Interesting independent survey here - not the Daily HateMail or the UK edition of Pravda known as the Guardian.

http://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/brexit-people-are-angry-but-looking-for-compromise-research-finds

To quote -

The most commonly cited example of a positive EU impact was no mobile phone roaming charges. Some young people also mentioned the arrival of high-street brands such as Spanish company Zara.

In general, however, Barnard and Ludlow found that it was easier for people who voted Leave to provide examples of how they felt the EU had interfered too much than it was for Remain voters to give concrete examples of the EU’s benefit.

I'm not going to say that some people appear to lack intelligence, but they do seem intellectually challenged when it comes to things outside their own little world of mobile phones and 'Do I look good in this '
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Scotland and Northern Ireland (and presumably the Welsh) aren't typical as they aren't as prone to singing Land of Hope and Glory while thinking the nasty Europeans have dragged us low from when we ruled the world. Brexit is a very English thing.
 
Wibble said:
Scotland and Northern Ireland (and presumably the Welsh) aren't typical as they aren't as prone to singing Land of Hope and Glory while thinking the nasty Europeans have dragged us low from when we ruled the world. Brexit is a very English thing.
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I agree except for Wales, I've spent a lot of time in the south there and anti EU sentiment is up there with England.
 
Wibble said:
Scotland and Northern Ireland (and presumably the Welsh) aren't typical as they aren't as prone to singing Land of Hope and Glory while thinking the nasty Europeans have dragged us low from when we ruled the world. Brexit is a very English thing.
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Almost right.

As far as the Scots go, it's the nasty English who are responsible for all Scotland's problems.
 
Full bodied red said:
You're right - I thought it was weird as well, and is why I posted it.

If the most common answer had been 'Ability to live in another country' or ' EU membership is good for UK Trade ' then I could perhaps understand.

By the way - I said those who replied with those stupid answers may be intellectually lacking - not lacking intelligence. Always thought the difference between intelligence and intellect is that our current cat is far more intelligent than our previous cat, but cat's don't have intellect. At least, not as far as I'm aware.

As for the Healthcare funding - who knows ? When the UK's contributions end, there'll be another €12 billion or so available for public spending, some of which may go to the NHS, some of which most probably won't. Too early to tell. But whichever Govenment is in power in 2019, they'll have another €12 bllion plus ( heaven forbid ) possible import tarrifs to spend as they want / need. It really is unrealistic to expect the Government to start spending that €12 billion immediately when they haven't actually got those savings yet. So yes, those you speak of may ultimately be proven to have been wrong, post-2019, but not yet.
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But there won't be the €12bn available, the reduction in the value of Sterling is seeing to that , that's why everything will become more expensive. As for the tariffs, if they come, the tariffs will be paid by the consumer thus by the people. Therefore it is an indirect tax on the British people. It would much cheaper to stay in the EU and not pay the tariffs. Someone has to realise on the Brexit side sooner or later.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
But there won't be the €12bn available, the reduction in the value of Sterling is seeing to that , that's why everything will become more expensive. As for the tariffs, if they come, the tariffs will be paid by the consumer thus by the people. Therefore it is an indirect tax on the British people. It would much cheaper to stay in the EU and not pay the tariffs. Someone has to realise on the Brexit side sooner or later.
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But the UK would be happy to accept Tariff Free Trade - it's the EU who will probably reject it for their own ideological reasons, not for reasons of common sense.
 
Full bodied red said:
But the UK would be happy to accept Tariff Free Trade - it's the EU who will probably reject it for their own ideological reasons, not for reasons of common sense.
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Why would you imagine your version of 'common sense' would be the same as theirs? Why would they see doing something that could help collapse the European project and cost all their countries hundreds of billions of (ex-)euros as common sense?
 
Full bodied red said:
But the UK would be happy to accept Tariff Free Trade - it's the EU who will probably reject it for their own ideological reasons, not for reasons of common sense.
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I'm sure the UK would but if May and co. expect a free ride to have all the benefits without costing them anything, then they'll have to wake up pretty soon to reality. It is guaranteed that there will be no financial gain for the UK leaving the EU.
As I've been saying since all this started I still don't know what the positive aspect for the UK is of this decision. It does not compute.
 
Kentonio said:
Why would you imagine your version of 'common sense' would be the same as theirs? Why would they see doing something that could help collapse the European project and cost all their countries hundreds of billions of (ex-)euros as common sense?
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Precisely. Haven't Leavers been saying this all along ? Lots of Europeans prefer to be members of a Free Trade Association - that's all, not some Federal States of Europe Project.
 
Full bodied red said:
Precisely. Haven't Leavers been saying this all along ? Lots of Europeans prefer to be members of a Free Trade Association - that's all, not some Federal States of Europe Project.
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Lots of British people would like to be part of the EU, yet that apparently didn't matter so much to you. The only way giving Britain a great deal makes any sense, is if you want to be out of the EU and/or you believe the EU is a negative thing. Most Europeans don't think either of those things.

What exactly have you been saying all along? That giving Britain a great deal would be a terrible blow to the EU? Because as far as I remember, thats the exact OPPOSITE of what you've all been saying.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I'm sure the UK would but if May and co. expect a free ride to have all the benefits without costing them anything, then they'll have to wake up pretty soon to reality. It is guaranteed that there will be no financial gain for the UK leaving the EU.
As I've been saying since all this started I still don't know what the positive aspect for the UK is of this decision. It does not compute.
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You and I are on different sides of this argument - I don't see any benefits for the UK in staying other than Tarrif Free Trade with the EU.

But as the EU has Tariff Free Trade with the UK, and runs a huge surplus in Tariff Free Trade with the UK, and charges the UK about €20 billion for the privilege, and prevents the UK from doing its own Trade Deals with non-EU countries, and insists that the UK has an economic open border to allow EU governments and quasi-government companies to buy up half the UK's public services and infrastructure, and an open physical border to soak up the EU's unemployed and unemployable, etc, etc, then I'd turn your comment around and say that I don't see any positive aspect for the EU coming out of the BREXIT vote.

But I do see potential benefits for the UK outside the EU - quite how many of those can be turned into reality is up to the EU.

An economically strong and prosperous UK, post BREXIT, will also benefit the EU as we are such an important customer for their exports. An economically weak UK post BREXIT will overspill to the EU's economy and its remaining members' economies.

Really, the choice is up to the EU - good friends and trading partners with the UK or miserable, feck you ex-partners.
 
Kentonio said:
Lots of British people would like to be part of the EU, yet that apparently didn't matter so much to you. The only way giving Britain a great deal makes any sense, is if you want to be out of the EU and/or you believe the EU is a negative thing. Most Europeans don't think either of those things.

What exactly have you been saying all along? That giving Britain a great deal would be a terrible blow to the EU? Because as far as I remember, thats the exact OPPOSITE of what you've all been saying.
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Your first comment...

Lots of, but not the majority.

I know that the EU and its apologists appear to have a different view on democracy when it comes to majority votes by its members' citizens, but that's the way it works in the UK.

Your second comment...

Lost me there....Again, please....
 
Full bodied red said:
Your first comment...

Lots of, but not the majority.

I know that the EU and its apologists appear to have a different view on democracy when it comes to majority votes by its members' citizens, but that's the way it works in the UK.
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Apologists? Hahaha, typical UKIP nonsense. The EU is fecking brilliant, I don't have a single damn thing to feel apologetic about by supporting it. As for how things work in the UK, you might want to be a little less smug considering we come from a constitutional monarchy which still has Bishops in its upper house.

Full bodied red said:
Your second comment...

Lost me there....Again, please....
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You said "Precisely. Haven't Leavers been saying this all along ?" in response to me talking about a good deal for Britain risking the collapse of the EU. I'd like you to explain that, given that I've never heard a single anti-EU person admit that. They've been falling over themselves to tell us instead how the only reason the EU 27 wouldn't give us a good deal is if they're being spiteful and vengeful.
 
Kentonio said:
Apologists? Hahaha, typical UKIP nonsense. The EU is fecking brilliant, I don't have a single damn thing to feel apologetic about by supporting it. As for how things work in the UK, you might want to be a little less smug considering we come from a constitutional monarchy which still has Bishops in its upper house.
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Not UKIP myself - just pro-UK in this case for being anti-EU. But if that makes me smug....OK, I can handle it.

Your stuff about Monarchy and House of Lords - I'd almost agree with you.

Although, the House of Lords is a little bit like the EU Parliament. Neither can make laws themselves. The HoL reviews and approves laws and decisions made in the House of Commons. The EU Parliament reviews and approves laws made by the EU Commission. The difference in democracy is that the elected members are the other way around - the HoL is unelected, scrutinising the elected lawmakers, the EU parliament is elected, scrutinising the unelected lawmakers.

Which of these two afronts to democracy is the worse, I'm not too sure.

Kentonio said:
You said "Precisely. Haven't Leavers been saying this all along ?" in response to me talking about a good deal for Britain risking the collapse of the EU. I'd like you to explain that, given that I've never heard a single anti-EU person admit that. They've been falling over themselves to tell us instead how the only reason the EU 27 wouldn't give us a good deal is if they're being spiteful and vengeful.
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I think you've misunderstood what I was ( trying ) to say.

I don't expect the UK to get a Free Trade Deal from the EU. Absolutely not. End of. If the EU's so fecking wonderful, they don't actually need the UK as members - might need the UK's money and consumers, but not the UK. So no good deal for the UK.

I used the word ' precisely ' in relation to your comment Why would they see doing something that could help collapse the European project and cost all their countries hundreds of billions of (ex-)euros as common sense? Like I said, lots of us in Europe, including in the UK, want nothing to do with a European Project, just a Free Trade Area.


 
"There are.no winners in this. Only losers"

Donald Tusk

But if you try, forget your principles for one sec, you might surprise yourself.
 
Full bodied red said:
You and I are on different sides of this argument - I don't see any benefits for the UK in staying other than Tarrif Free Trade with the EU.

But as the EU has Tariff Free Trade with the UK, and runs a huge surplus in Tariff Free Trade with the UK, and charges the UK about €20 billion for the privilege, and prevents the UK from doing its own Trade Deals with non-EU countries, and insists that the UK has an economic open border to allow EU governments and quasi-government companies to buy up half the UK's public services and infrastructure, and an open physical border to soak up the EU's unemployed and unemployable, etc, etc, then I'd turn your comment around and say that I don't see any positive aspect for the EU coming out of the BREXIT vote.

But I do see potential benefits for the UK outside the EU - quite how many of those can be turned into reality is up to the EU.

An economically strong and prosperous UK, post BREXIT, will also benefit the EU as we are such an important customer for their exports. An economically weak UK post BREXIT will overspill to the EU's economy and its remaining members' economies.

Really, the choice is up to the EU - good friends and trading partners with the UK or miserable, feck you ex-partners.
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But it isn't €20bn and there's much more than just the trade, and the Uk do already trade with non-EU countries but get a better deal because they are part of the EU, on their own it will not be quite so simple and they have to start from scratch. If the Uk still continue to think they can get free access without paying anything or having ECJ ruling or free movement then it's just not going to happen.

Of course it would be better if both the UK and EU were prosperous but don't see how that is going to happen unless the UK agree to the terms and conditions which would have to be through the EEA. One country will always be weaker than a combined 27 and a weak 27 would make the UK even weaker.
There are no winners, just that one will lose much more than the 27.

The signs are starting to show over the last couple of months. Absolutely nothing has led me to change my mind in the past 15 months since this discussion began. Everything is exactly as I thought it would be but just a little delayed because the UK took so long to trigger A50.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
But it isn't €20bn and there's much more than just the trade, and the Uk do already trade with non-EU countries but get a better deal because they are part of the EU, on their own it will not be quite so simple and they have to start from scratch. If the Uk still continue to think they can get free access without paying anything or having ECJ ruling or free movement then it's just not going to happen.

Of course it would be better if both the UK and EU were prosperous but don't see how that is going to happen unless the UK agree to the terms and conditions which would have to be through the EEA. One country will always be weaker than a combined 27 and a weak 27 would make the UK even weaker.
There are no winners, just that one will lose much more than the 27.

The signs are starting to show over the last couple of months. Absolutely nothing has led me to change my mind in the past 15 months since this discussion began. Everything is exactly as I thought it would be but just a little delayed because the UK took so long to trigger A50.
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I said €20 billion because it's about €12 billion PLUS it seems the UK should have set aside another couple of € billion each year to pay it's leaving fee PLUS the share of Import Tarrifs which the UK collects on behalf of the EU from non-EU Trade Partnersd and then passes them on to the EU but could actually keep these once outside the EU until Free Tade Deals are set up with those countries.

It all adds up, you know....

The rest - I respect your opinions and your reasons, all logical, but it seems that I'm much more optimistic that the UK will manage perfectly well outside the meddling influences and dictats of EU Commissioners and their EU Project.

Perhps you can offer Kentonian somewhere to stay when he quits the UK for his beloved EU. I would, of course, but it might get a bit strained over dinner....
 
Full bodied red said:
Sorry....Didn't realise....

You here forever like Paul and myself, or just for the time being ?
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Two and a half years so far, so will be about 4 years and two months when Brexit lands. Which is obviously great..

If all goes well I'll stay at least long enough to get French citizenship. I need my EU citizenship to continue, I travel extensively for work and losing it would be a massive blow.
 
Stanley Road said:
"There are.no winners in this. Only losers"

Donald Tusk

But if you try, forget your principles for one sec, you might surprise yourself.
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So the EU should abandon their principles to accomodate what? A government that has none? The Tory party made their bed. Let them sleep in it. Its not the EU's job to make Brexit a success.
 
Full bodied red said:
Your first comment...

Lots of, but not the majority.

I know that the EU and its apologists appear to have a different view on democracy when it comes to majority votes by its members' citizens, but that's the way it works in the UK.

Your second comment...

Lost me there....Again, please....
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These comments :lol:
 
Kentonio said:
Two and a half years so far, so will be about 4 years and two months when Brexit lands. Which is obviously great..

If all goes well I'll stay at least long enough to get French citizenship. I need my EU citizenship to continue, I travel extensively for work and losing it would be a massive blow.
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As I said...Sorry, didn't realise.

I was telling Paul a while ago, been here since 1979 and thought about the citizenship thing a few times but never got round to it. Like you, I've spent all that time working and travelling internationally, but never really had any problems. And, I suppose, Schengen wouldn't affect me too much - once you're in France, don't actually need a passport to go most other places in Europe, anyway.

These days, I still spend quite a bit of time in Nigeria and Angola - and doesn't really matter which country pasport you have, everyone still needs visa. So swapping to a French passport won't help with work.

If the sh*t hits the fan, I'll probably go for German citizenship ( Frau FBR is German ) but that's a problem for the future, only if the UK and the EU don't do a deal on their own foreign residents which I'm sure they will. Might require introducing work permits, but residency should be easily agreeable.
 
Full bodied red said:
I was telling Paul a while ago, been here since 1979 and thought about the citizenship thing a few times but never got round to it. Like you, I've spent all that time working and travelling internationally, but never really had any problems. And, I suppose, Schengen wouldn't affect me too much - once you're in France, don't actually need a passport to go most other places in Europe, anyway.
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Schengen would certainly help, I'm just expecting that if we don't get a deal we'll probably end up with some extra annoyances thrown in along the way. For me personally I'm not expecting the work travel stuff to be a major problem though, as one advantage of working for a big global is they tend to sort out that stuff for you of course.

Full bodied red said:
If the sh*t hits the fan, I'll probably go for German citizenship ( Frau FBR is German ) but that's a problem for the future, only if the UK and the EU don't do a deal on their own foreign residents which I'm sure they will. Might require introducing work permits, but residency should be easily agreeable.
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If you're looking at Germany, then might be worth noting the rule about duel citizenship. It's only possible apparently if you're applying from an EU country, so post Brexit it'd likely mean handing in your UK passport. I don't think that applies for France though.
 
I'm not sure why leavers are confused about the EU's position. Broadly there are 4 things they want from the process.

1) Not reward countries for leaving as they have an interest in more countries not leaving.
2) Do the best trade deal for the EU. If the UK's demands mean this is no deal then so be it.
3) Make sensible arrangements for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa, if the UK allows this to happen.
4) Negotiate a mutually sensible financial exit arrangement.

Leavers seem to think the UK's interests should trump the EU's interests by default and start crying "I hate the nasty EU" when reality starts to creep in.
 
Wibble said:
I'm not sure why leavers are confused about the EU's position. Broadly there are 4 things they want from the process.

1) Not reward countries for leaving as they have an interest in more countries not leaving.
2) Do the best trade deal for the EU. If the UK's demands mean this is no deal then so be it.
3) Make sensible arrangements for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa, if the UK allows this to happen.
4) Negotiate a mutually sensible financial exit arrangement.

Leavers seem to think the UK's interests should trump the EU's interests by default and start crying "I hate the nasty EU" when reality starts to creep in.
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I don't see anything a leaver would find remotely confusing in that list. Maybe one will come on and explain?
 
Wibble said:
I'm not sure why leavers are confused about the EU's position. Broadly there are 4 things they want from the process.

1) Not reward countries for leaving as they have an interest in more countries not leaving.
2) Do the best trade deal for the EU. If the UK's demands mean this is no deal then so be it.
3) Make sensible arrangements for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa, if the UK allows this to happen.
4) Negotiate a mutually sensible financial exit arrangement.

Leavers seem to think the UK's interests should trump the EU's interests by default and start crying "I hate the nasty EU" when reality starts to creep in.
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The reason why us leavers voted to leave is because we hate the nasty EU. We all knew after the referendum that the EU wouldn't allow us to leave quietly if we desired to take back control of our borders.
It is bloody obvious that the EU wants both free movement, and our money, and if they get neither, it's going to get ugly.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
The reason why us leavers voted to leave is because we hate the nasty EU. We all knew after the referendum that the EU wouldn't allow us to leave quietly if we desired to take back control of our borders.
It is bloody obvious that the EU wants both free movement, and our money, and if they get neither, it's going to get ugly.
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I think if it wasn't for the risk of around 4m people on both sides of the channel suddenly being left completed fecked if there was no deal, quite a lot of Europe would be ok with Britain just buggering off now.
 
Kentonio said:
I think if it wasn't for the risk of around 4m people on both sides of the channel suddenly being left completed fecked if there was no deal, quite a lot of Europe would be ok with Britain just buggering off now.
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No they need the money too.

But yes, beyond the money and the right for their low skilled workers to work here the EU doesn't much care about the UK for anything else.
 
Kentonio said:
I think if it wasn't for the risk of around 4m people on both sides of the channel suddenly being left completed fecked if there was no deal, quite a lot of Europe would be ok with Britain just buggering off now.
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I think the most worrying thing of all for the EU is the potential loss of investment from the UK. My feeling is that they will concede the UK border issue, but will be determined make it cost us. And so the negotiating will centre around finances mostly. The conservative election manifesto didn't factor in the considerable savings we would make by leaving the EU, which means that a deal with the EU may well involve at lot of our money. You would think the tories would be very vocal about our potential savings as a non member, but they're not. No one is mentioning it.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
I think the most worrying thing of all for the EU is the potential loss of investment from the UK. My feeling is that they will concede the UK border issue, but will be determined make it cost us. And so the negotiating will centre around finances mostly
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Why are you guys so convinced Europe cares about UK money? You know both France and Germany have bigger economies right?

vidic blood & sand said:
The conservative election manifesto didn't factor in the considerable savings we would make by leaving the EU, which means that a deal with the EU may well involve at lot of our money. You would think the tories would be very vocal about our potential savings as a non member, but they're not. No one is mentioning it.
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Perhaps because its ridiculously untrue, and anyone who budgets for a saving that will actually be a massive economic hit is going to look extremely stupid when they have to suddenly try and find billions of pounds from nowhere?
 
Kentonio said:
Why are you guys so convinced Europe cares about UK money? You know both France and Germany have bigger economies right?

Perhaps because its ridiculously untrue, and anyone who budgets for a saving that will actually be a massive economic hit is going to look extremely stupid when they have to suddenly try and find billions of pounds from nowhere?
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France and Germany don't need our contributions, the EU does.
If you have a budget that depends on three lodgers in a house, and one leaves, you'll need to either make the other two pay more, find another lodger, or find an alternative means of capital.
The EU knows that the UK would be willing to compromise financially for free access to the single market, and so they will be determined to maximise this bargaining chip to their favour. However, they will also understand that tariffs will hurt EU countries more than us, and so they will want to avoid going down that route.
 
vidic blood & sand said:
France and Germany don't need our contributions, the EU does.
If you have a budget that depends on three lodgers in a house, and one leaves, you'll need to either make the other two pay more, find another lodger, or find an alternative means of capital.
The EU knows that the UK would be willing to compromise financially for free access to the single market, and so they will be determined to maximise this bargaining chip to their favour. However, they will also understand that tariffs will hurt EU countries more than us, and so they will want to avoid going down that route.
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You are not getting access to the free market through money.
 
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