This is exactly the compromise the Tory party are after though; Norway style without the single market.
They can strike their free trade deals with the rest of the world, whilst still being aligned with Europe
Obviously the major sticking point is still Northern Ireland. Is this border hard or soft?
Does it make it easier that all the Northern Irish have automatic Irish and therefore EU Citizenship? For the average Irish and Northern Irish Citizen, surely the single market never ceases as they are free to work in both countries?
It's not really an alignment, the directives are written in the EEA agreement, it's not really different to what happens in the EU. Also we don't really know the UK's position on the 4 freedoms, we have heard everything and its opposite.
It's not really an alignment, the directives are written in the EEA agreement, it's not really different to what happens in the EU. Also we don't really know the UK's position on the 4 freedoms, we have heard everything and its opposite.
That's where the EFTA model doesn't work, they are part of the single market and Schengen. That's also why people need to understand that we are talking about something that doesn't exist, so the UK should stop with the lame comparison and start to act seriously.
Conservative days are numbered. I seriously cannot see how they can continue to stay in power after the absolute mess they have turned this country into. That's without taking into consideration the austerity factor. If they somehow retain power, well I don't know what to say, I might retire from service and leave the country or something. I cannot live in a country full of idiots
That's where the EFTA model doesn't work, they are part of the single market and Schengen. That's also why people need to understand that we are talking about something that doesn't exist, so the UK should stop with the lame comparison and start to act seriously.
The 4 freedoms are dead, but the comparison still works in most other areas:
There will almost certainly be freedom to travel between the EU and the UK, without freedom to look for work or buy property. Heck, we know this *has* to happen between the UK and Ireland (along with freedom to look for work and buy property), and the whole point is to get visa free travel between the UK and EU26.
- This does not require any sort of customs union, or any sort of single market union.
Norway have the freedom to create their own free trade deals as part of the EFTA. How much they really benefit from this is hugely debatable (the list of countries isn't exactly huge), but they also have the freedom to their own fishing policy and their own agricultural policy.
- This requires *not* being in the customs union with the EU.
On both these points, there are a lot of similarities between the UK and Norway. The big difference is that Norway are part of the Single Market, and the UK will not be. Indeed, the UK have already felt repercussions of that, with the European Medicine Agency and the European Banking Authority leaving the UK, the UK banks to lose passporting rights, the UK financial sector to lose Euroclearing and so on. Indeed, given that the services sector is the largest economic sector of the UK, and the financial sector is the largest services sector, and services are the largest UK export... it's going to hurt
So I'm not saying that "Norway without the Single Market" is going to be good for the UK, I'm just saying that that's where we are going to end up.
In the same way that Norway can make their own free trade deals, the UK will be able to, too. In the same way that Norway are tethered to EU rules, the UK will be too (with some political nonsense to obfuscate it).
The Irish Border problem is pretty much unsolvable though. Many people are going to be happy. Ireland / Northern Ireland needed special status the DUP wrecked that
@rcoobc First that's only semantic but it's not the custom union but a custom union, the nuance is important here because you can have a custom agreement with the EU without being a member of the EU custom union. Now, the problem here is that what you wrote makes little sense because I don't see the goal, maybe you mentioned it but I fail to see it.
What do you want from a custom agreement, what is it supposed to achieve? I read your post and you make a comparison with a custom agreement but then get rid of all its substance and basically end up with the ability to strike your own deals. If that's your goal what is the point of a custom agreement in your case?
@rcoobc First that's only semantic but it's not the custom union but a custom union, the nuance is important here because you can have a custom agreement with the EU without being a member of the EU custom union. Now, the problem here is that what you wrote makes little sense because I don't see the goal, maybe you mentioned it but I fail to see it.
What do you want from a custom agreement, what is it supposed to achieve? I read your post and you make a comparison with a custom agreement but then get rid of all its substance and basically end up with the ability to strike your own deals. If that's your goal what is the point of a custom agreement in your case?
With regards to a goal, you are asking the wrong person. I didn't ask for this, and in fact no one asked for this. We've got this crazy catch-22 Brexit, not because anyone wanted it, but because it was the only one possible.
Basically; the UK public has been fed the follow two statements about the European Union:
Being part of the European Union allows untold millions of migrants to live here, work here, and claim benefits.
Being part of the European Union prevents the UK from striking trade deals with the rest of the world.
These two statements form the Brexit promise, that we can trade freely again and take back control of our borders.
A third statement that "The European Union over regulate and have stupid regulations that hard British businesses" also resonates with many (straight Bananas), but most people don't care about this compared to the first two.
So the Conservative Government is trying to marry the Brexit promise (regaining the ability to strike our own free trade deals and an end to freedom of movement), with the political reality (the UK economy depends heavily on the EU, the UK economy wants to stay aligned with the EU, the EU+EFTA is our biggest trade partner, Ireland cannot have a hard border, etc).
Why do we want to be in a customs union with the EU, but not the customs union with the EU, so we can strike our own trade deals, but have regulatory alignment? Not because anyone has done some analysis that says it will grow the economy by x %, not for environmental or moral reasons... simply because that's political reality the Tories find themselves in.
Yeah I have to say that doesn't sound particularly good for *any* border in Ireland, but it seems like there is going to be one, and I would imagine it's going to look a lot like Norway-Sweden
@rcoobc I realize that it's going to be tedious but the idea of a custom agreement is still lost here. When I talk about goals, I'm not talking about politics but laws and economy, what is it that the new custom agreement is supposed to achieve?
That's the missing piece, I understand what you are saying but you are just repeating the nonsense that some media and politicians spout.
If we pretend that Brexit doesn't exist and the UK are just entertaining the idea of a custom agreement with the EU+EFTA, what would be the goals and the limits? From what we know, the Norway example is not the model and that's not a debate because when you are against Schengen, regulated borders and the single market, you have basically gutted EFTA.
So like I asked earlier fundamentally what are the goals of the custom agreement, that's the first question to answer and it will allow everyone to see what is possible and what isn't because you can't have everything.
Barnier's today confirmed the City's losing its passport once we leave the single market. In before, glad we're finally rid of those bankers (and their taxes...).
Again I see in this thread that nonsense about migrants claiming benefits. Are you aware and can you quote a number of how many of the people like me come to this country and do that? And then compare to the overall amount of people here that actually support the economy.
Do you think people up sticks and come to the UK, so they can sit on their arse and watch the rain fall outside (almost year-round)? I really have to laugh at some of the 'opinions' I see spouted as facts and I am not even going to get into the fact the UK can control all these things already.
Brexit is literally getting into disasterland and the lunatics which seem to have May by the horns are seriously dangerous people. If anyone ever doubted that Brexit is NOT good for this country, they'd just look and read up on the people that support it. JRM, for example, was a failure as a fund manager, yet he's now giving economic forecasting lessons to the whole of the EU.
Also, who in their right mind thinks 60m people can get a better deal in any area than 500m The Brexiteers have pulled the wool so far over people's eyes that the remainers had to answer the question of whether the UK was getting a good deal out of the EU when it was the fastest growing big developed economy in the world. Imagine where this country could be with a proper government and inside the EU. What a waste, seriously.
So many lies are spouted about the Brexit process on a daily basis that if I didn't know any better, I'd believe some of them.
@rcoobc I realize that it's going to be tedious but the idea of a custom agreement is still lost here. When I talk about goals, I'm not talking about politics but laws and economy, what is it that the new custom agreement is supposed to achieve?
That's the missing piece, I understand what you are saying but you are just repeating the nonsense that some media and politicians spout.
If we pretend that Brexit doesn't exist and the UK are just entertaining the idea of a custom agreement with the EU+EFTA, what would be the goals and the limits? From what we know, the Norway example is not the model and that's not a debate because when you are against Schengen, regulated borders and the single market, you have basically gutted EFTA.
So like I asked earlier fundamentally what are the goals of the custom agreement, that's the first question to answer and it will allow everyone to see what is possible and what isn't because you can't have everything.
Conservative days are numbered. I seriously cannot see how they can continue to stay in power after the absolute mess they have turned this country into. That's without taking into consideration the austerity factor. If they somehow retain power, well I don't know what to say, I might retire from service and leave the country or something. I cannot live in a country full of idiots
Problem when it comes to Brexit is that Corbyn and Labour don't really have any coherent, unified policy on it at the moment either, because they themselves know committing to a hard or soft Brexit is political suicide. And I say that as someone who likes Corbyn, and who'd much rather see him in government than the current mob. Corbyn in charge will hopefully improve a fair bit but it still leaves us in a mess when it comes to Brexit.
Starting from a basis of being in the EU and moving outwards...
What do you want from the custom agreement?
For the UK: Frictionless trade with the EU, our largest trading partner.
For the EU: Frictionless trade with the UK, but also to maintain some control of the UK and prevent the UK becoming a tax haven.
What do you want to trade and how freely do you want to do it?
For the UK: Pretty much everything. Right now, we have perfect regulatory alignment and no tariffs whatsoever. The UK doesn't actually have any areas where it currently wants to diverge from EU regulations, or at least very few. The UK want's to trade everything from food to car parts.
We want to trade everything as freely as possible.
For the EU: Harder to know what the EU wants but you may as well copy the above answer.
Starting from a basis of being in the EU and moving outwards...
What do you want from the custom agreement?
For the UK: Frictionless trade with the EU, our largest trading partner.
For the EU: Frictionless trade with the UK, but also to maintain some control of the UK and prevent the UK becoming a tax haven.
What do you want to trade and how freely do you want to do it?
For the UK: Pretty much everything. Right now, we have perfect regulatory alignment and no tariffs whatsoever. The UK doesn't actually have any areas where it currently wants to diverge from EU regulations, or at least very few. The UK want's to trade everything from food to car parts.
We want to trade everything as freely as possible.
For the EU: Harder to know what the EU wants but you may as well copy the above answer.
According to that the UK want to be part of the single market and the EU custom Union. The single markets represents "pretty much everything" and the EU custom union is "frictionless trade". I hope that you see the problem here.
According to that the UK want to be part of the single market and the EU custom Union. The single markets represents "pretty much everything" and the EU custom union is "frictionless trade". I hope that you see the problem here.
According to that the UK want to be part of the single market and the EU custom Union. The single markets represents "pretty much everything" and the EU custom union is "frictionless trade". I hope that you see the problem here.
Of course the being in the Single Market and Customs Union is the best we could get. But the political reality is that, that isn't on the table right now. 20 years down the line, we can start to talk about it again.
So the UK want the second best option. And the second best option, is a Norway style deal without the Single Market. Whether or not UK Politicians can stop in-fighting for long enough to realise that that is what they want, and whether the EU will accept that is another matter.
Also, the Single Market is about a *hell* of a lot more than just trade
Of course the being in the Single Market and Customs Union is the best we could get. But the political reality is that, that isn't on the table right now. 20 years down the line, we can start to talk about it again.
So the UK want the second best option. And the second best option, is a Norway style deal without the Single Market. Whether or not UK Politicians can stop in-fighting for long enough to realise that that is what they want, and whether the EU will accept that is another matter.
Also, the Single Market is about a *hell* of a lot more than just trade
I'm sorry but this is bordering on lunacy, a Norway style deal without the Single Market isn't a Norway style deal particularly when you don't even want the rest which are Schengen and a soft regulated border, not an open border.
Of course the being in the Single Market and Customs Union is the best we could get. But the political reality is that, that isn't on the table right now. 20 years down the line, we can start to talk about it again.
So the UK want the second best option. And the second best option, is a Norway style deal without the Single Market. Whether or not UK Politicians can stop in-fighting for long enough to realise that that is what they want, and whether the EU will accept that is another matter.
Also, the Single Market is about a *hell* of a lot more than just trade
But those who didn't like foreigners two years ago still don't like them now, those that were dumb enough to believe the NHS claim, the wonderful new trade deals etc are still the same dumb people now, those that hate the EU haven't suddenly fallen in love with it and those that had the false hope that their life would miraculously change for the better for no other reason than hope, still will do so.
Yes there'll be a small number of people in the middle which could sway it one way or another but until something really painful affects them,they'll still be swayed by what they want to believe influenced by the media.
People also still have hope that if it does all go wrong they can change their minds later and rejoin, I don't see this either, at least not for many years and in the meantime all the damage will have been done.
Sometimes it's worth kicking the gov't in the stones to remind them you exist, despite the consequences and maybe despite personal loss. Watch a government collapse and eat popcorn. Thats what Woody Guthrie would have done.
I'm sorry but this is bordering on lunacy, a Norway style deal without the Single Market isn't a Norway style deal particularly when you don't even want the rest which are Schengen and a soft regulated border, not an open border.
Lunacy? What you describe as lunacy, I describe as inevitable.
Of course Norway without single market isn't the same as Norway proper. But that's what we're going to end up with.
Regulatory alignment, abiding by EU decisions on most subjects (with some political obfuscation), an open border with Ireland, visaless travel, fairly frictionless trade, etc.
You can describe that as CETA+ or Norway- but that's the inevitable end
Lunacy? What you describe as lunacy, I describe as inevitable.
Of course Norway without single market isn't the same as Norway proper. But that's what we're going to end up with.
Regulatory alignment, abiding by EU decisions on most subjects (with some political obfuscation), an open border with Ireland, visaless travel, fairly frictionless trade, etc.
You can describe that as CETA+ or Norway- but that's the inevitable end
"Regulatory alignment" has no ground in reality, particularly when the ones talking about it also mention flexibility on laws and standards, without a complete abidance to EU rules and regulations written in a treaty, you are not getting an open border and frictionless trade.
"Regulatory alignment" has no ground in reality, particularly when the ones talking about it also mention flexibility on laws and standards, without a complete abidance to EU rules and regulations written in a treaty, you are not getting an open border and frictionless trade.
Can you seriously see the UK abiding by all eu rules (including future ones) though? I don't think those peddling "take back control" could ever be satisfied with that... They will instantly start undermining any agreement that entails that, starting it all over again.
(Sorry, don't mean to answer for @JPRouve , but I don't think he's arguing with you, more the idea that "regulatory alignment" could really be turned into a working policy).
Can you seriously see the UK abiding by all eu rules (including future ones) though? I don't think those peddling "take back control" could ever be satisfied with that... They will instantly start undermining any agreement that entails that, starting it all over again.
(Sorry, don't mean to answer for @JPRouve , but I don't think he's arguing with you, more the idea that "regulatory alignment" could really be turned into a working policy).
Yes. There will be some political obfuscation, i.e. some UK body that has to ractify any changes.. but yes. We will still be abiding by EU rules after brexit
Can you seriously see the UK abiding by all eu rules (including future ones) though? I don't think those peddling "take back control" could ever be satisfied with that... They will instantly start undermining any agreement that entails that, starting it all over again.
(Sorry, don't mean to answer for @JPRouve , but I don't think he's arguing with you, more the idea that "regulatory alignment" could really be turned into a working policy).
Exactly, it makes no sense. Unless the UK set their alignment in stones which basically mean being a member of a custom union with the EU then there is no way for an open border, a simple regulatory alignment means regulated borders because there is no way that a economic area just trusts a different jurisdiction.
Exactly, it makes no sense. Unless the UK set their alignment in stones which basically mean being a member of a custom union with the EU then there is no way for an open border, a simple regulatory alignment means regulated borders because there is no way that a economic area just trusts a different jurisdiction.
The whole thing is obviously a shit show, but whats more worrying than anything is if the Tories supposed list of antithetical aims can be taken at face value then there's a huge, huge amount of work that needs to be done to stop the country grinding to a halt on Leave day which simply has not been started yet.
Exactly, it makes no sense. Unless the UK set their alignment in stones which basically mean being a member of a custom union with the EU then there is no way for an open border, a simple regulatory alignment means regulated borders because there is no way that a economic area just trusts a different jurisdiction.
It can, but that would mean the UK having to abide to EU rules in terms of trade deals. Also the customs union will offer frictionless trade in terms of goods not services.
It can, but that would mean the UK having to abide to EU rules in terms of trade deals. Also the customs union will offer frictionless trade in terms of goods not services.
There is no one stopping any EU member from signing individual trade deals. Germany have signed trade deals with China in 2011. However these trade deals have a certain scope and must abide to EU laws to make sure that a level playing field is kept. The more complex the deal is, the more 'intrusion' from the EU it may need. Mixed trade deals such as the one done with Canada need the consensus of all EU members.
Turkey abides to pretty much the same principle. The difference is that while Germany has unrestricted access to the EU market. Turkey only have access in terms of goods.
And if the single market is dead then the Tory government wouldn't spend so much time begging for preferential access to it.
Which is why I asked you, what do you(the UK) want from a future custom agreement, that question hasn't been answered. The countries you mentioned have very different situations.
Monaco: are part of Schengen, partially part of the Single Market, part of the VAT area and part of the EU custom union. Open border.
EFTA: are part of Schengen, part of the single Market. Not open borders, regulated ones.
Turkey: are partially part of the EU custom union but they have a hard and regulated border.
There is no one stopping any EU member from signing individual trade deals. Germany have signed trade deals with China in 2011. However these trade deals have a certain scope and must abide to EU laws to make sure that a level playing field is kept. The more complex the deal is, the more 'intrusion' from the EU it may need. Mixed trade deals such as the one done with Canada need the consensus of all EU members.
Turkey abides to pretty much the same principle. The difference is that while Germany has unrestricted access to the EU market. Turkey only have access in terms of goods.
And if the single market is dead then the Tory government wouldn't spend so much time begging for preferential access to it.
Lunacy? What you describe as lunacy, I describe as inevitable.
Of course Norway without single market isn't the same as Norway proper. But that's what we're going to end up with.
Regulatory alignment, abiding by EU decisions on most subjects (with some political obfuscation), an open border with Ireland, visaless travel, fairly frictionless trade, etc.
You can describe that as CETA+ or Norway- but that's the inevitable end
