Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
This strategy works great if your counterpart knows you're employing it... :lol:. The worrying thing about this is that Boris apparently thinks his/May's current approach is sane.


The concession the UK wants (full access while not crossing May's red lines) is impossible. I can't see any other concession that would satisfy the UK's needs, the red lines will need to disappear.

Exactly, I feel that people still don't clearly understand that the concessions demanded from the EU are literally to sign a FTA and Custom agreement with the UK while the UK keep total independence from the other 27 countries, not only it makes no sense from a political or trading standpoint but it's also a huge problem from a legal POV.

The legal problems are particularly important here because we have the fresh example of the GFA, a deal built around a context(EU membership) that could have been unilaterally altered and made inapplicable. That's something that you don't want, that's why jurist and contract managers are crucial, you can't let or create obvious holes without clearly addressing them and the problem here is that not every holes can be filled, for example it's not possible to have two trade agreements in one custom and trade territory that contradict each others without having a common jurisdiction that will impose the rules on everyone.
 
So hard border where every vehicle going across the border is checked for goods then? Only at major roads or every small country road that crosses across the border? I cross into the north, and back on my way to work everyday, should I be then stopped at customs 4 times daily in your scenario?
Did you even read that post?
 
Boris is 100% wrong, either he doesn't understand the problem or is deliberately ignoring it.

The problems are not only the border checks which would be impossible. There are many other points which have been discussed numerous times.
The EU will not be changing the laws just to suit the UK and the WTO will also not be changing their rules to suit the UK.

The Irish trade will suffer but they still have agreements with the 26 other EU members and the countries the EU have agreements with.
If the UK leave off a cliff edge they will have agreements with zero countries, zero.
You realise that countries like Australia have trade agreements in place with the EU were there is recognition / alignment of the standards in both zones that allows Australian goods to move freely throughout Europe without the need for customs checks right?
 
You realise that countries like Australia have trade agreements in place with the EU were there is recognition / alignment of the standards in both zones that allows Australian goods to move freely throughout Europe without the need for customs checks right?

I have spent the last 30 odd years trading throughout the world including Australia. The standards in Australia are not the same as the EU. Any product that comes from the EU and is shipped to Australia has to comply with Australian standards (which are tough) and any product that comes from Australia shipped to Europe has to comply with EU standards and if it does it can circulate within the EU countries.

However, there still have to be customs checks because Australia is not in the Custom's Union.

The UK wants to leave the custom's union and trade on WTO rules. WTO rules dictate that there has to be a hard border.

Australia, however, is a good country to bring up because about 20 years ago it took about 5/6 weeks for shipments to reach there - now because there are fewer ships, everything is shipped through hubs, containers are trans-shipped from vessels to vessels and ports to ports. The last shipment I shipped to Australia a couple of years ago took over 4 months because of massive congestion in Shanghai.

Trading with Europe is on a short-term basis where everything is time dependent and delays in documentation (which will be necessary) will cause untold delays, whereas if you are dealing with a country a long distance away you have all the time in the world to get the documentation you require.

Nevertheless customs checks are only a part of the problem that will be caused by the UK leaving.
 
I like the 25% of UKIPers there. What's going on with them.

I suspect they thought this would be an easy process where we'd impose ourselves on the EU and get an easy and simple hard Brexit. The reality so far is probably rather disconcerting for them, especially with certain issues unresolved.
 
You look at this poll here and even it tells you that tory voters are essentially UKIP crop in disguise.

I'd say Tory members - a lot of Tory voters are fairly non-political and will often just think they're best for the economy, or that they're a safer choice than Labour. The Tory membership base is essentially UKIP in disguise though and increasingly looks to move to the right now they feel they've been justified by Brexit and no longer need (supposed) softer figures like Cameron in charge. A bit like Labour in their lurch to the left, you could say.
 
I suspect they thought this would be an easy process where we'd impose ourselves on the EU and get an easy and simple hard Brexit. The reality so far is probably rather disconcerting for them, especially with certain issues unresolved.

That can't be the case, the 25% began by thinking it would go badly.
 
That can't be the case, the 25% began by thinking it would go badly.

Ah, so they did. In that case, maybe UKIP voters who thought from the beginning that the Tories and EU would sabotage their wishful hard Brexit. Or morons who just wanted to stick it to the entire country.
 
We are going right over this cliff edge people.

I had a serious discussion with the missus last night about whether we needed to stock up on canned food etc, ahead of next March. I thought she'd think I was crazy. She actually agreed we should begin given the risks of massive customs feckups and potential supply disruption to shops. Still not sure if I'm being crazy, but feck, our current leaders inspire zero confidence.
 
I had a serious discussion with the missus last night about whether we needed to stock up on canned food etc, ahead of next March. I thought she'd think I was crazy. She actually agreed we should begin given the risks of massive customs feckups and potential supply disruption to shops. Still not sure if I'm being crazy, but feck, our current leaders inspire zero confidence.
Think ive still got 1000 cans of baked beans and corned beef in the shed from the millennium bug scare so I should be alright.
 
I had a serious discussion with the missus last night about whether we needed to stock up on canned food etc, ahead of next March. I thought she'd think I was crazy. She actually agreed we should begin given the risks of massive customs feckups and potential supply disruption to shops. Still not sure if I'm being crazy, but feck, our current leaders inspire zero confidence.
In all seriousness though, I was thinking recently about how maybe now is the time to buy a new car, given my current one is pretty damn old and I guess Ill probably be needing a new one in about 2 or 3 years. Maybe I can squeeze more life out of it than that, but I suspect not. How much more expensive will a car be in 2 or 3 years?

But then I was thinking if need be I can always just go to Europe, buy a car and then drive it home, if need be.
 
I had a serious discussion with the missus last night about whether we needed to stock up on canned food etc, ahead of next March. I thought she'd think I was crazy. She actually agreed we should begin given the risks of massive customs feckups and potential supply disruption to shops. Still not sure if I'm being crazy, but feck, our current leaders inspire zero confidence.
I don't think things will get that bad. If that happens under any government, they'll be handing in resignations within hours.
I do agree with @Adebesi car prices would be at immediate risk. The auto makers have already said their concerns have not been heard and God knows what happens with the £.
 
In all seriousness though, I was thinking recently about how maybe now is the time to buy a new car, given my current one is pretty damn old and I guess Ill probably be needing a new one in about 2 or 3 years. Maybe I can squeeze more life out of it than that, but I suspect not. How much more expensive will a car be in 2 or 3 years?

But then I was thinking if need be I can always just go to Europe, buy a car and then drive it home, if need be.

Wouldn‘t you need UK registration (license plate) thus pay import tax anyway (since I‘d expect them to ask for papers on UK car import lobby pressure)?
 
I had a serious discussion with the missus last night about whether we needed to stock up on canned food etc, ahead of next March. I thought she'd think I was crazy. She actually agreed we should begin given the risks of massive customs feckups and potential supply disruption to shops. Still not sure if I'm being crazy, but feck, our current leaders inspire zero confidence.

What is crazy is that a country in 2018 is trying to cut itself off from its supply chain.
If the UK does go off the cliff edge in March, expect the worst and multiply it by ten.
 
Here is the Press Association’s first take on the Michel Barnier press conference.

Brussels will not be “intimidated” by Britons who try to blame the EU for their inability to secure the Brexit deal they want, chief negotiator Michel Barnier has said.

Barnier was speaking as he said that Theresa May’s proposals for a backstop customs arrangement in Northern Ireland raise a series of “difficult” questions.

Speaking in Brussels, Barnier said it was not necessarily “feasible” to extend the EU’s offer of continued participation in key elements of the customs union in Northern Ireland to cover the whole of the UK, as the Prime Minister’s proposal suggests.

And he said MMay’s insistence that the arrangement must be time-limited meant that it could not be regarded as a true backstop, providing a fallback option if the UK’s preferred permanent solution could not be agreed.

“Backstop means backstop,” he said. “The temporary backstop is not in line with what we want or what Ireland and Northern Ireland want and need.”

Barnier said it appeared that some Brexit supporters wanted to offload on to Brussels the blame for the fact that the UK cannot continue to enjoy some of the benefits of EU membership after leaving.

But he said: “We are not going to be intimidated by this form of blame game.”
 
Wouldn‘t you need UK registration (license plate) thus pay import tax anyway (since I‘d expect them to ask for papers on UK car import lobby pressure)?
Quite possibly, I havent really thought it through at all.

Im not really in a position to buy a new car at the moment though. So I guess Ill have to hope for the best. And maybe play BOTB.
 
Quite possibly, I havent really thought it through at all.

Im not really in a position to buy a new car at the moment though. So I guess Ill have to hope for the best. And maybe play BOTB.

Wouldn’t it be a pain in the ass having the steering wheel on the wrong side too? :)
 
Wouldn’t it be a pain in the ass having the steering wheel on the wrong side too? :)
I dont know that it would, really. I feel like it would be something you would stop noticing after about a week. Maybe Im underestimating it. But when Ive hired cars abroad Ive got used to it pretty quickly. I mean, all other things being equal I would choose to have the steering wheel on the right, but if you offered me a few thousand quid to have it on the left I would be happy to do that.
 
He (Barnier) added: "Let's go back to pragmatism. Checks carried out on ferries are less disruptive than along a 500km-long land border. In addition, these checks can build on arrangements and facilities which already exist between the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland."

Sounds like Barnier is telling the UK they have to have a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which will only reinforce Brexiters hatred of the EU telling them what to do all the time.

Barnier may be right or he may be wrong, as the song goes, but I'm not reading anything to change my view that a hard Brexit and a hard border is still the most likely outcome. Unless the government falls, without DUP support, but I'm not sure Labour cake and eat it hopes would result in anything different anyway.
 
Arlene would rather be 6ft under than see a border between NI and the rest of the UK.
 
He (Barnier) added: "Let's go back to pragmatism. Checks carried out on ferries are less disruptive than along a 500km-long land border. In addition, these checks can build on arrangements and facilities which already exist between the rest of the UK and Northern Ireland."

Sounds like Barnier is telling the UK they have to have a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, which will only reinforce Brexiters hatred of the EU telling them what to do all the time.

Barnier may be right or he may be wrong, as the song goes, but I'm not reading anything to change my view that a hard Brexit and a hard border is still the most likely outcome. Unless the government falls, without DUP support, but I'm not sure Labour cake and eat it hopes would result in anything different anyway.

Because the only other solution to maintain the GFA is for the UK to remain in the CU/SM. The UK insist they are leaving the CU/SM - so yep hard Brexit in March it is, unless something radical changes
 
At least when all this is over, the country is in ruins, we are all subsisting off moss and bugs under rocks because there is no food left in the country and we all have to fashion our own clothes out of leaves and bits of scrap material salvaged from the wasteland, I will be able to wag my fingers at the Brexiters and say "I bloody told you so."

There is at least some small consolation in that.
 
I dont know that it would, really. I feel like it would be something you would stop noticing after about a week. Maybe Im underestimating it. But when Ive hired cars abroad Ive got used to it pretty quickly. I mean, all other things being equal I would choose to have the steering wheel on the right, but if you offered me a few thousand quid to have it on the left I would be happy to do that.

I dunno, it’s manageable for short periods, but it’s a pain in the arse for overtaking.
 
Wouldn’t it be a pain in the ass having the steering wheel on the wrong side too? :)

OF course everything that is not on the UK standards is wrong (not different). Side of the road, metric vs imperial, Premier League vs Liga :p
 
Arlene would rather be 6ft under than see a border between NI and the rest of the UK.

I'm genuinely at a loss as to what she thinks will happen in supporting Brexit. She doesn't want a full border because she knows that'll hugely benefit Sinn Fein, but doesn't want a border between the UK and NI either. What the feck else is she hoping for?:lol:
 
I dont know that it would, really. I feel like it would be something you would stop noticing after about a week. Maybe Im underestimating it. But when Ive hired cars abroad Ive got used to it pretty quickly. I mean, all other things being equal I would choose to have the steering wheel on the right, but if you offered me a few thousand quid to have it on the left I would be happy to do that.

Yeah most people adapt quickly when driving abroad, but it's harder to drive a left hand drive car in a road system designed for right hand drive cars. Though if you bought one in Ireland it would be right hand drive.
 
I'm genuinely at a loss as to what she thinks will happen in supporting Brexit. She doesn't want a full border because she knows that'll hugely benefit Sinn Fein, but doesn't want a border between the UK and NI either. What the feck else is she hoping for?:lol:
Pretty sure the DUP's main problem with the EU was human rights. That's the only reason they backed Brexit imo. I can't think of any other.
 
Yeah most people adapt quickly when driving abroad, but it's harder to drive a left hand drive car in a road system designed for right hand drive cars. Though if you bought one in Ireland it would be right hand drive.
Then that's where Ill go.

In fact, that makes even more sense. Ill fly to Dublin, by a car, drive it to Belfast because there will be no border, get a boat to Liverpool because there will be no border there either, and then ill drive home.

This Brexit lark is going to be super convenient.
 
OF course everything that is not on the UK standards is wrong (not different). Side of the road, metric vs imperial, Premier League vs Liga :p

I’m on the fence over metric (Britain has a weird hybrid of the two systems anyway), but yep when it comes to roads and la liga I stand by my position. ;)
 
I'm genuinely at a loss as to what she thinks will happen in supporting Brexit. She doesn't want a full border because she knows that'll hugely benefit Sinn Fein, but doesn't want a border between the UK and NI either. What the feck else is she hoping for?:lol:
Some of that lovely Brexit cake.