Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
I could be wrong but you seem to think that it's the EU who cut that market off from them when it's the Uk that did it. They could have lobbied against Brexit, they either did and failed or they didn't. Either way, the 27 position is clear and has been expressed publicly.
Absolutely not. But you seem to think we live in anything other than corporatist states. Business will decide the new terms of the relationship after Brexit happens. Its going to happen, no one can escape it. But no deal will quickly become "we need to be able to sell our goods or our company will go under" very quickly. Then youll see negotiations begin to happen.
 
So you want Ireland to leave the EU because they are reacting to a dictator who is trying to ruin the global economy to make America first? Thank feck you are in a very small minority.
But how many of the tariffs imposed by the US affect Irish companies and how many tariffs imposed by the EU affect Irish consumers? At some poibt you kind of have to take the blinkers off and think is this actually good for Ireland?
 
But how many of the tariffs imposed by the US affect Irish companies and how many tariffs imposed by the EU affect Irish consumers? At some poibt you kind of have to take the blinkers off and think is this actually good for Ireland?

Absolfckinglutely is backing up the EU against that megalomaniac good for Ireland. Irelands inward investment is always strong due to the skilled work force. Pissing off the EU would be suicide.
 
Absolutely not. But you seem to think we live in anything other than corporatist states. Business will decide the new terms of the relationship after Brexit happens. Its going to happen, no one can escape it. But no deal will quickly become "we need to be able to sell our goods or our company will go under" very quickly. Then youll see negotiations begin to happen.

I never made that point though. So I'm not sure about where that come from, ultimately there will be deals but they are not going to favor the UK.

Edit: Also you are clearly making the mistake of isolating everyone in order to make the UK look more attractive but that's the point of the single market, the 27 aren't isolated, first german constructors sell cars in Germany but they also sell more cars to the 27, so you should know where they will put their priorities.
 
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Absolfckinglutely is backing up the EU against that megalomaniac good for Ireland. Irelands inward investment is always strong due to the skilled work force. Pissing off the EU would be suicide.
You need to check where Irelands inward investment is coming from.
 
Im Irish living in Australia you feckwit!

I think you misunderstood, I didn't say you were English (I did read your post before it after all). The point I was making was that your argument that the British market is so important to German car manufacturers and Italian wine manufacturers that they would be able to pressure the EU into bending over backwards to give Britain what they wanted is the delusional nonsense that's been the clarion call of Brexiteer's since before the referendum.
 
But its not a minor scrape, and 1.6% yes but thats just cars. How many oher goods and services do Germany export to the UK. Do you know what percentage that the UK represents to Germanys export economy in total? Must be 5 or 6 if cars are nearly 2 alone. Thats huge mate. How many German jobs rely on the UK market? And its not just Germany. Think of all the wine producers in the southern European countries. Italy alone is £660 million a year.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/303297/uk-wine-imports-leading-5-countries-by-value/

That kind of loss to the Italian wine producers would cripple some companies.

I know youre in shipping industry but do you understand the balance sheet, income and cashflow statements of a company?

7% of Germany's total exports go to the UK. Of course it's not negligible but you have to look at it from the other way round too, how much of the UK's business goes to the EU. Nobody wants it to happen but it is happening. everyone's going to suffer to one degree or another. Certain companies in the EU will undoubtedly close because of this.

The point is the whole structure and purpose of the EU is not going change because the UK is leaving .

I recently retired but I was in trading (goods) and shipping. I was MD of two companies in the Uk and one in France so I hope I would understand accounts.
 
You need to check where Irelands inward investment is coming from.

You need to understand that the tech and pharmaceutical industry have very little to do with the steel and aluminium industry and you should also realize that not every US corporation, infact probably few, would be supportive of Trumps war on tariffs or Trump in general.
 
I think you misunderstood, I didn't say you were English (I did read your post before it after all). The point I was making was that your argument that the British market is so important to German car manufacturers and Italian wine manufacturers that they would be able to pressure the EU into bending over backwards to give Britain what they wanted is the delusional nonsense that's been the clarion call of Brexiteer's since before the referendum.
I never said they would use it as leverage for a deal. Im talking post 29th March that the level of export from EU countries to the UK will have a major impact on trade relations. Tariffs at WTO level will not stop exporters needing to sell their produce. They will make less margin but they will still see any margin as better than zero.
 
7% of Germany's total exports go to the UK. Of course it's not negligible but you have to look at it from the other way round too, how much of the UK's business goes to the EU. Nobody wants it to happen but it is happening. everyone's going to suffer to one degree or another. Certain companies in the EU will undoubtedly close because of this.

The point is the whole structure and purpose of the EU is not going change because the UK is leaving .

I recently retired but I was in trading (goods) and shipping. I was MD of two companies in the Uk and one in France so I hope I would understand accounts.
Absolutely, the UK relies on the EU market too. My point is that in the end it will have nothing to do politics and at the end of the day producers will still need a market for the goods they produce.

The way you make out its like the UK will be isolated and no one will be able to buy any goods. That is not going to happen.

The company I work for will air freight aluminium products from China and turn a 60% margin into a 4% margin in order to keep the customers supplied and happy. Business will continue.
 
https://www.statista.com/statistics/655786/export-import-vehicles-value-germany/
Export value in 2016 estimated to €220 Billion.

The EU (not just Germany) represents €38 Billion of the imported car market in the UK, about €22 Billion of that is from Germany.
http://www.acea.be/statistics/article/motor-vehicle-trade-between-the-uk-and-main-eu-partners

I got my numbers wrong but my point stands... no company or industry is going to allow a market like that to be cut off from them. Especially not in an economy predominantly corportist in nature.
Your posts show you still don't understand Brexit and the EU.
The EU is a legal construct. There are only a few legal options available if the UK wants to leave and take a deal. It appears it wants none of those options.
It would be the UK cutting off its market, not the EU.
 
Absolutely, the UK relies on the EU market too. My point is that in the end it will have nothing to do politics and at the end of the day producers will still need a market for the goods they produce.

The way you make out its like the UK will be isolated and no one will be able to buy any goods. That is not going to happen.

The company I work for will air freight aluminium products from China and turn a 60% margin into a 4% margin in order to keep the customers supplied and happy. Business will continue.

Yes trading will continue of course, the purchase and sale of goods will continue. Just in a different and more inefficient way.
Tariffs are one concern but is not the major concern.
My main concern for the UK is the frictionless border - it is vital that goods are able to move freely back and forth because they will between the other 27 EU countries.
If the current frictionless border develops friction, ie if the UK leaves the CU/SM, then companies eg Airbus, BMW, Nissan etc will move their production to the area where there is no friction, it is not to punish the UK like Hunt seems to think, it is vital in the production.

Trade does not operate like in the 1960s like some people think. It doesn't even function as in the 1980s or even 1990s.

And goods are only one part of the problem.
 
When all this is over will the UK try Farage for treason and be hunted down by lynch mob Brexiteers.

You'd have to say the 3-5 years leading up to Brexit were seriously influenced by Camerons continued threat for a referendum. Didnt he win his PM term based somewhat on an "I will deliver a referendum" promise in the first place. This is not just Farage, and Im not trying to be an apologist for him. I think the damage was done well before the referendum was even announced.
 
I see the "german car manufacturers will ensure a deal gets done" nonsense is still being peddled 2 years on, despite being debunked by the german trade federation the day after the referendum.

BMW et al are far more interested in the huge developing markets such as China and India than a tiny island of soon to be poor people.
 
You'd have to say the 3-5 years leading up to Brexit were seriously influenced by Camerons continued threat for a referendum. Didnt he win his PM term based somewhat on an "I will deliver a referendum" promise in the first place. This is not just Farage, and Im not trying to be an apologist for him. I think the damage was done well before the referendum was even announced.

Cameron was desperate to ensure the Tories were in power at the 2015 election and promised the referendum to buy off the UKIP and Labour Eurosceptic votes.
The Tories are currently trying to wriggle a way through to the 2022 election by trying to kick the can down the road till then. What the Tories have a problem with is that end of the road is March 2019.

I'm more referring to the underhand dealings plus the lies spread by Farage in order to obtain Brexit, notwithstanding the 20 years he has spent as an MEP in the EU parliament being paid to represent his constituents and the UK and doing nothing of the sort, just occasionally turning up and hurling insults.
 
I've not been following this for a while but just saw that no deal is even money on betfair.

How the feck did we get to this point?
The call for a parliamentary meaningful vote on negotiations hasn't helped. There could be enough disgruntled MPs of both Leave and Remain camps to vote against the government, in which case hard brexit will be the likely result. The opposite of what most of the vote protagonists actually want of course, but they haven't thought it through.
 
Cameron was desperate to ensure the Tories were in power at the 2015 election and promised the referendum to buy off the UKIP and Labour Eurosceptic votes.
The Tories are currently trying to wriggle a way through to the 2022 election by trying to kick the can down the road till then. What the Tories have a problem with is that end of the road is March 2019.

I'm more referring to the underhand dealings plus the lies spread by Farage in order to obtain Brexit, notwithstanding the 20 years he has spent as an MEP in the EU parliament being paid to represent his constituents and the UK and doing nothing of the sort, just occasionally turning up and hurling insults.

All those years he complained about them while taking a hefty wage and pension and doing nothing of benefit to this country.
 
Yes trading will continue of course, the purchase and sale of goods will continue. Just in a different and more inefficient way.
Tariffs are one concern but is not the major concern.
My main concern for the UK is the frictionless border - it is vital that goods are able to move freely back and forth because they will between the other 27 EU countries.
If the current frictionless border develops friction, ie if the UK leaves the CU/SM, then companies eg Airbus, BMW, Nissan etc will move their production to the area where there is no friction, it is not to punish the UK like Hunt seems to think, it is vital in the production.

Trade does not operate like in the 1960s like some people think. It doesn't even function as in the 1980s or even 1990s.

And goods are only one part of the problem.

People on our grapevine reckon there is a long-term objective of Airbus to move bits of its operation to China. That would be something that would normally take decades. But they could use all this uncertainty to speed things up if we are not careful. Some politicians underestimate how powerful big business is. They have this notion that everything will sort itself out and we'll all find other things to do and other customers to do it for. Somebody mentioned that Boeing would move into the UK if Airbus moved out. Really?
 
Leaving the EU is like selling your car, buying it back in bits and trying to assemble it only to find there's only 3 seats, one headlight and no reverse gear.
 
People on our grapevine reckon there is a long-term objective of Airbus to move bits of its operation to China. That would be something that would normally take decades. But they could use all this uncertainty to speed things up if we are not careful. Some politicians underestimate how powerful big business is. They have this notion that everything will sort itself out and we'll all find other things to do and other customers to do it for. Somebody mentioned that Boeing would move into the UK if Airbus moved out. Really?

Companies will always aim for the most efficient and profitable solution. Despite the claims of globalisation from the UK government they are effectively making the UK less accessible and creating problems and obstacles that were not there. The Uk are living in the past.
 
What will happen is the 29th of March will come and then those businesses in Europe that rely on British trade will come to the table and Britain will work out a trade policy that suits Britain.

This doesn't make any sense. March 29th is the leaving date. If they wait until then, both the UK and the EU will be hit, but the UK will be hit considerably harder. Why would the EU then agree a deal that suits Britain? All they'd have to do is sit back and wait for the UK to cave in to pretty much whatever terms the EU wanted to offer. They might have some parts of EU industry shouting at them, but the UK would have gridlock at the ports, no planes able to fly to Europe and an almost endless list of other disasterous crisis events occuring. The two situations aren't even vaguely comparable.