They do have a solution as others have mentioned - the problem is that it is a solution the UK at the moment feel they can't accept (which is insane) - The UK need to offer up a viable alternative which they clearly are so far incapable of doing.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
They do have a solution as others have mentioned - the problem is that it is a solution the UK at the moment feel they can't accept (which is insane) - The UK need to offer up a viable alternative which they clearly are so far incapable of doing.
Isn't May's waffly proposal an attempt at solution 1, as in 'something practically the same' ? Whether both the EU and Parliament will wear it is of course a different matter, but if they don't we're headed for option 3.
Also the EU aren’t going to accept it anyway, so what does it matter?
The EU are faced with a really interesting negotiating dilemma. It would be very, very easy for them to tell May that her white paper is a pie in the sky, and once again knock her back to the hard brexit status quo. I.e. "goods and services is indivisible", "can't pick and choose elements of the single market", "customs arrangement isn't going to work" and so on.
The problem with doing that is it negotiates us *downwards*. It pushes us towards the hard brexit that the dyed-in-the-wool leavers want. Instead, Barnier needs to negotiate us *upwards*. He needs to up-sell us. He needs to convince May to loosen her grip on 'sovereignty' even further to integrate us into the EU community. And he's done it brilliantly so far, we've gone from "Brexit means Brexit" to "Brexit means accepting EU Law". Keep going and we're at soft brexit.
What does this deliver to Remain supporters?
Hmm let's see.
- No border with Northern Ireland
- Visa free travel to the EU
- Partial visa free working within the EU?
- Staying under most EU laws for goods.
- Free trade not driving the economy completely off the cliff.
- Areas like car manufacturing saved.
Leavers aren't happy. Remainers aren't happy. But there is enough compromise there that the majority of people can live with it.
And that's democracy. It's not perfect, but better than tyranny.
I'll admit to not reading anything other than the Ireland/Northern Ireland stuff, so I'd be curious to know if there's any element in the rest of it that isn't such a pathetic fudge. Can one of the rest of ye do the heavy lifting here?
May's proposal makes a custom agreement impossible, you can't have one out of 27 members creating unilaterally his own set of rules and then the insidious part is the "bilateral", it may sound trivial for some but they are literally considering that their sovereignty is equal to the ones of the 27 put together. Here I'm only talking about the point 19, that alone is absolutely unacceptable.
Hasn't Barnier said 'Brexit deal is 80% agreed'? Of course that is still a long way from full agreement, but I don't see how you could dismiss his statement completely. As I said, personally I'm starting to see Parliament as a bigger obstacle to May's agreement than the EU now.
Don't worry, it actually means the UK will do what the EU says, which of course is what's upsetting the Tory rebels.
The withdrawal agreement is different to a future FTA-CU, we agreed on how we were going to disentangle ourselves at the exception of the Irish border and which programs you might still be part of for example Galileo.
I highly doubt he's actually that confident.
Ok, I read section 10 too (relevant to my job)
Can confirm it's a colossal fudge too.
This bit is great.
The UK will cough up to cover some of EU science funding deficit immediately following Brexit (presumably using all that cash we were promised on the Brexit bus) but only for funds committed while Britain is still in the EU. What happens after that?
Don't worry, it will all be ok.
Phew!
I left out all the other drivel about the past and current situation re science in Britain which, paradoxically, takes up the vast majority of that section. In a document which is supposed to be all about what the future will look like. For feck's sake...
Can confirm it's a colossal fudge too.
This bit is great.
The UK will cough up to cover some of EU science funding deficit immediately following Brexit (presumably using all that cash we were promised on the Brexit bus) but only for funds committed while Britain is still in the EU. What happens after that?
Don't worry, it will all be ok.
Phew!
I left out all the other drivel about the past and current situation re science in Britain which, paradoxically, takes up the vast majority of that section. In a document which is supposed to be all about what the future will look like. For feck's sake...
@Pogue Mahone I read it, it's the same in almost every paragraphs, on every subjects.
FFS...
I bet you feel you know so much about English history now though.
Reckon they originally wrote it and it was only five pages long and they went .. "shit.. what else can we put in here?"
If there were a World Obfuscation Cup then British civil servants would win it every year. Or the yanks, one of us anyway.
For me, the only option is for Northern Ireland to stay in the customs union.
It can be out of the single market, and instead be part of the UK services market.
It can be part of the UK fisheries and agriculture (although probably should share agriculture rules with Ireland).
It can be part of the UK rules for immigration.
It can have UK laws rather than EU laws.
But it should be part of the EU's customs area.
The only way that the NI-UK customs border will cause problems, is if the UK-EU customs border causes problems. And if the UK-EU customs border causes problems, Brexit has failed, and we don't have a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement and customs solution.
If NI stays in the Customs Union, then there is no need for any land border with Ireland. And the UK can go about finding a sensible, normal customs solution not based on magic and pixie dust.
Yeah ... I'm not sure she can make a deal. If she conceded the points to the EU that would be necessary to make a deal, then the conservative party will start a vote of no confidence she'll lose. Shes not that close to a workable deal and quite close to losing the party. Her own party are against anything but a hard brexit, same with the media, the interpretation of the vote, the opposition (seemingly). Theres just no basis or foundation to get a soft brexit through. She's buying time with the fudge of the current white paper trying to get enough of her party on side to drag it over the line and it really doesn't look likely to happen. If she manages to get a soft brexit to a vote in parliament she'll have done a brilliant job imo.
That would be an awesome spectacle.
Will she actually? I'd say she's fairly safe, there are as many Tory Remainers as leavers, and most are pragmatists anyway.
No, the big danger is that a tiny fraction of Tory MPs can collapse the government if they so wished. Her Majority in the Commons with the DUP is what, 5? So if 10 Tory leavers go for the nuclear option, they can collapse the government.
It may go something like this.
- Mays Soft Brexit plan becomes clearer.
- 1922 Committee receives nearly the required 48 letters.
- May is about to face a vote of no confidence. The "people in the back rooms" do the maths, and know she will win.
- The 50 or so hard Brexiters make promises in private to begin voting against the government if they are not listened too.
- May is told by "the people in the back rooms" that her time has come and she has to resign.
- A deal is done and someone like Sajid Javid is made PM?
- Sajid Javid promises a multi question referendum on the final EU deal in 2019:
Question 1 - If the UK rejects the deal, should we leave the EU with WTO rules OR should the UK stay in the EU.
Question 2 - Do you accept the negotiated EU deal?
(some fudge like that)
- We leave with the soft brexit
It reads like when you're struggling to hit the word count of an essay so keep throwing in "and therefore...".
Back home from the UK. I see they have already started work on converting the M20 into a car or lorry Park.
Lot of catching up to do but Trump sounds disappointed that he might not be able to dump his chlorinated chicken in the UK after all.
Lot of catching up to do but Trump sounds disappointed that he might not be able to dump his chlorinated chicken in the UK after all.
I think that they(current politicians) are the opposite of what England has historically been. One of the reason why the UK thrived is because of a strong respect of the rules of Law, a clear and intelligible implementation, investors had total confidence in UK's jurisdictions.
What's ironic is we can't even get a lorry park approved in Kent
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-42002776
So it's sleeping on the M20 for our Lorry drivers.
Yeah, possible, and likely the best-case scenario too. I wouldn't call the referendum result myself though, could go either way. Might depend on the cash the EU asks for, I suppose.
The white paper is one big story. My optimism from last week has faded pretty quickly. Think No Deal is now a strong probability.
If we ignore the internal politics of the Conservative Party and the feckless opposition leader for a second, what would be the process for extending the March 2019 deadline? Agreement of all individual EU countries? Given the talent the Troika has displayed in Greece for kicking the can down the road, my preferred solution would be to agree an extension to resolve remaining issues (with the unsaid understanding that they probably won’t be) for say 3-5 years and then hold referendum 2 (justification - changed circumstances) once changing demographics have done their work. It’s slightly cynical but given the three senior members of the current administration were remainers who are currently trying to steer a course between disaster and damage limitation, an element of absurdity is unavoidable.
United Kingdom has legislated to leave the EU on March 29th 2019. It's an act of parliament.
Major cringe and embarrassment if that act had to be revoked. I also think that it would be very politically difficult to reverse in the HoC.
But any act of parliament can be superseded by a subsequent act. I agree it is politically awkward (to say the least) but if May stood up and said we are making good progress but just need some more time to iron out important details, would the (remainer majority) parliament say no way, let’s go for the cliff edge instead?
Like I state next to no chance of that happening. If May were to delay then the would be a leadership election immediately to try and remove her.
Real issue is Corbyn. He's a brexit supporter, primarily because he knows there's a good chance it'll make him PM. No way he'd support a revoking of the act. . . and even if it were to come from the tory side it would be electoral suicide.
I just cannot see it happening.
UK will leave EU next March.
It will be in name only for a certain period but leave they will.
You say that. But if it's a choice between not leaving (yet) and leaving with no deal... Yeah only the most hardcore leaver will think we should leave in that way
It's possible but I think the political consequences make it very unlikely. I used to think no deal would be done but I now think that some sort of Norway style deal will be patched up. The hardline brexiteers will go mad (what's new?) but that's the only way to get around the Northern Ireland problem and for brexit to occur.
Just read through the white paper, got to page 25 or so and then started skipping parts - as Johnson would say just a pile of turds.
Further away now than ever from getting a deal and that's two years after the referendum.
Unless there is complete climbdown there is going to be a no deal for certain
Barnier may say 80% is agreed but 75% was supposedly agreed 7 months ago and the UK keep going back on what they say they agreed.
Even Remainers are starting to think they can cherry-pick now.
Has it actually occurred to anyone in the UK that the EU may be glad to see the back of the UK and that the only things that really interest the EU are the citizens rights issues and that the Irish border is resolved. Probably not.
Further away now than ever from getting a deal and that's two years after the referendum.
Unless there is complete climbdown there is going to be a no deal for certain
Barnier may say 80% is agreed but 75% was supposedly agreed 7 months ago and the UK keep going back on what they say they agreed.
Even Remainers are starting to think they can cherry-pick now.
Has it actually occurred to anyone in the UK that the EU may be glad to see the back of the UK and that the only things that really interest the EU are the citizens rights issues and that the Irish border is resolved. Probably not.
I agree with you. We are heading for no deal territory.
Only thing I'm clinging to is that whilst 'no deal' would be catastrophic for us, it would also be damaging (albeit relatively less so) to the EU meaning at that point it would surely be in both party's interest to somehow extend or fudge the rules on the Article 50 deadline.
To what end? Based on what May said and what the white paper shows, they are either completely out of depth or purposely proposing silly things. Either way, EU members can't wait forever and they can't gamble on the hypothetical chance that british people get rid of the Tories and Corbin in one go.
I believe the only thing for certain that will happen in that White Paper is that the UK will leave on 29 March 2019.
There will be damaging things for the EU but there will also plenty of advantages for the EU with the UK leaving with no deal.
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I don't think parliament would let a no deal happen
How was your trip to UK?