The problem we have is that unlike some other countries the UK is not self-sustaining in terms of food. We simply rely heavily on imported food - what will happen if there is a no deal brexit? Nobody knows but it is possible that all current trade deals with EU countries would cease immediately due to no trade deal being in place so there would be a period of time between no deal and a new deal being brokered that possibly would mean a lack of imports and exports to the EU. In that scenario then yes there could be a food shortage absolutely.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
- Thread starter Silva
- Start date
-
In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
The problem we have is that unlike some other countries the UK is not self-sustaining in terms of food. We simply rely heavily on imported food - what will happen if there is a no deal brexit? Nobody knows but it is possible that all current trade deals with EU countries would cease immediately due to no trade deal being in place so there would be a period of time between no deal and a new deal being brokered that possibly would mean a lack of imports and exports to the EU. In that scenario then yes there could be a food shortage absolutely.
May is going to Belfast to garner support for a brexit strategy she has made illegal.
You guys are off your rockers
That's not a realistic scenario mate. Food supply is tailored to match demand. The producers who supply the UK won't suddenly start tossing their goods in garbage dumps and demand won't magically manifest elsewhere to compensate the suppliers. Deals between suppliers and producers don't generally go up in the air because of tariff changes.
Realistic scenario is that UK companies pay the tariff for imported goods and then pass the cost to the consumer. EU goods will become more expensive afterwards. That's about it.
Also, majority of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. There's no realistic scenario of food shortages.
Source: https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/challenge/your-food-is-global/
Im not sure i agree regarding inflation & bank rate. I think recent history has shown us that the BOE will "look through/past" a spike in inflation if it believes the underlying economy is weak and needs supportive monetary policy.
As @Jippy said, they cut rates after the refferendum despite Sterling tumbling.
You guys are off your rockers
That's not a realistic scenario mate. Food supply is tailored to match demand. The producers who supply the UK won't suddenly start tossing their goods in garbage dumps and demand won't magically manifest elsewhere to compensate the suppliers. Deals between suppliers and producers don't generally go up in the air because of tariff changes.
Realistic scenario is that UK companies pay the tariff for imported goods and then pass the cost to the consumer. EU goods will become more expensive afterwards. That's about it.
Also, majority of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. There's no realistic scenario of food shortages.
Source: https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/challenge/your-food-is-global/
Food shortages does not mean ALL food - it means SOME food types will be affected and clearly there is a risk of this, at least for a short time. What happens to a UK based importer of melons from Spain if there is a no deal brexit? Can they still import melons from Spain? I've honestly no idea.
You guys are off your rockers
That's not a realistic scenario mate. Food supply is tailored to match demand. The producers who supply the UK won't suddenly start tossing their goods in garbage dumps and demand won't magically manifest elsewhere to compensate the suppliers. Deals between suppliers and producers don't generally go up in the air because of tariff changes.
Realistic scenario is that UK companies pay the tariff for imported goods and then pass the cost to the consumer. EU goods will become more expensive afterwards. That's about it.
Also, majority of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. There's no realistic scenario of food shortages.
Source: https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/challenge/your-food-is-global/
How does that not indicate a shortage scenario if we only produce 52% of our consumed food?
You guys are off your rockers
That's not a realistic scenario mate. Food supply is tailored to match demand. The producers who supply the UK won't suddenly start tossing their goods in garbage dumps and demand won't magically manifest elsewhere to compensate the suppliers. Deals between suppliers and producers don't generally go up in the air because of tariff changes.
Realistic scenario is that UK companies pay the tariff for imported goods and then pass the cost to the consumer. EU goods will become more expensive afterwards. That's about it.
Also, majority of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. There's no realistic scenario of food shortages.
Shame the Department for Exiting the EU don't agree with your little Brexit fantasy, hey?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/revealed-plans-for-doomsday-no-deal-brexit-02mld2jg2
Well, I really shouldn't have to explain this but here goes...
Because:
a) We produce more than we consume, since we also export (it's noted right there in the graph)
b) Having tariffs on goods doesn't suddenly stop the trade. We import from non-EU nations just fine.
I can't read the article,requires subscription.
I'm slightly surprised you're not already familiar with the leak that it's reporting given that you're trying to present yourself as knowledgeable on this topic and it was widely reported at the time, but at any rate if you google the key words you'll find it. Even the Daily Mail couldn't put a positive slant on it.
While you might not start starving right away, the overall availability of fruit and vegetables will certainly take a huge nosedive, as you simply won't have the capacities needed to process all your EU imports through the customs.
Better start hoarding them Oranges...
Why wouldn't the UK importer be able to buy melons from Spain? What is the logical block in that? Two countries members of the WTO. There will be tariffs and costs will be higher, that's basically it.
The only real worry is whether we'll have a system in place for goods to clear customs fast enough without blockages. Not whether we'll be able to trade.
The thing I find amazing is how people are trying to normalize all this shite, none of this had to happen the whole fecking thing was dreamt up just to make the rich twats like JRM richer. The ordinary Joe has to suffer but he is willingly doing it with a smile because brown people!
Ah is this the doomsday scenario where the port of Dover collapses?
Yes, if 17% of our total trade literally vanished overnight we would have shortages. I somehow feel that they'll have created plans for customs that don't cause unrelenting blockages in Dover. Call me crazy.
If you like.
Your optimism is admirable. Did you read the white paper? The complete lack of any sort of forward planning couldn’t be more obvious and the dude in charge of making all these plans quit last week.
As @GloryHunter07 said, Carney is a pragmatist and won't react to a spike in inflation, he has to think longer-term. Plus you'd have to put rates up loads to tempt in speculators, given the lack of trade deal killing our fundamentals.
The BoE could raise rates and buy sterling to try and defend the currency, but that would be crazy, cos you'll get creamed by hedge funds, like on Black Wednesday when the UK fell out of the ERM.
We do have high employment, but that's slightly distorted by zero hours contracts etc...Consumer debt is very high and wage growth only recently nudged ahead of inflation.
I don't think people are saying we'll all starve to death, more that certain products, eg fruit and veg flown in from say Spain might face shortages.You guys are off your rockers
That's not a realistic scenario mate. Food supply is tailored to match demand. The producers who supply the UK won't suddenly start tossing their goods in garbage dumps and demand won't magically manifest elsewhere to compensate the suppliers. Deals between suppliers and producers don't generally go up in the air because of tariff changes.
Realistic scenario is that UK companies pay the tariff for imported goods and then pass the cost to the consumer. EU goods will become more expensive afterwards. That's about it.
Also, majority of food consumed in the UK is produced in the UK. There's no realistic scenario of food shortages.
Source: https://www.foodsecurity.ac.uk/challenge/your-food-is-global/
There will be shortages of many different things, how much is up for debate.
People are worried about tariffs , it's not the tariffs alone they should be worried about it's the continuous regular supply.
Interruptions in supply of all things will cause a massive disruption.
It's not comparable directly but remember the KFC /DHL disruption not that long ago. Doesn't take much to cause chaos.
Thinking that everything will carry on as usual after a no-deal scenario is wishful thinking in the extreme.
I'm not saying this to wind people up or exaggerate. This is an extremely serious problem for the UK.
But the problem is they haven't. The assumption is we'll get a deal, the problem is the government keep dangling this mentalist 'no deal' carrot.
I thought we had learnt by now that a narrow majority of 52% means everything...
Crazy
Mike, the trade doesn't have to stop completely, all it needs is for the trade hubs (ie Dover) to suddenly have to be processing every vehicle that passes through at a much slower rate than at present, and suddenly all those supermarkets that are reliant on imported goods will start having empty shelves within weeks. Obviously a lot of food is created domestically, but if people can't buy imported stuff the demand for those also rises massively, leading to shortages there that we didn't have previously, and don't have the capacity to replace. Meanwhile trucks are backing up at the ports, with perishables in serious danger of not making it to their destinations in time.
This is not a tin foil hat scenario, this is what is going to happen if there is genuinely no deal and we just crash out. Our ports don't have the customs staff and infrastructure they would need to handle a hugely increased workload, and that stuff takes time to build and train people for. Have you noticed now little time we have left?
Raising rates and buying Sterling are two different things. Carney could do the first but never touch the latter. As you say, he's a pragmatist. He didn't react to the post-Brexit results because obviously that was just speculators dumping Sterling on back of a vote result. It had no impact on the fundamentals of the economy. If a weakening pound, due to a now settled Brexit, causes inflation then that's a more long term effect.
Regarding unemployment, a slight distortion on a historic low, is still a low. Only 2.8% of our workforce is on zero hour contracts and we have 4.1% unemployment. There's nothing equivocal about it, that's low.
Regarding the shortages on certain goods, these will only happen due to disruptions in the supply chain. Which is something that can be planned around and prevented once the direction of Brexit is made clear. We have people in this thread saying we won't be able to be able to trade with Spain after Brexit ffs.
The dude (Davis) was a useless wanker who's thankfully quit. But in any case this work is done by civil servants not government attention whores. Call me optimistic, but I don't think the Dover port collapse will come to pass, partly because plans will begin to get drawn up as we get closer to a decision and partly because the EU will require preparations on the Calais side as well. Thus a temporary delay until measures are in place would suit both sides.
The problem isn't tarrifs but the fact that every shipment has to be treated individually. Something that is important to remember is that lots of foreign goods aren't necessarily processed in Dover but in their EU entry port, it can be Dunkerque, Antwerp, Genoa, Hamburg, Rotterdam, Le Havre, etc. These shipments are checked by customs and given a custom/trade area patent, so when a shipment arrive from these ports customs don't necessarily have to treat them individually because they are EU lots, without a deal these lots are foreign, they don't have a patent.
Although agree with a lot of the posts in this thread, it does rather have the ring of the average United Forum thread.
On the plus side everyone that loses their jobs at Airbus etc can go work in Dover.
If we imported nothing and exported nothing we'd have gluts of some types of food and scarcity in other areas. Basically - tonnes of wheat and sod all broccoli.
@MadMike what about the EU Nationals responsible for processing alot of that 52%? What happens to them in the event of No Deal? Are they still allowed to work, or will our food be rotting in the fields?
Also your unemployment figures don't account for unpaid carers, of which there are a huge number.
Also your unemployment figures don't account for unpaid carers, of which there are a huge number.
That unbreakable Brexiteer optimism that somehow things will all work out just fine without anybody actually doing something to make it happen never ceases to amaze me
That unbreakable Brexiteer optimism that somehow things will all work out just fine without anybody actually doing something to make it happen never ceases to amaze me
I'm a remainer. I just like to call out weak arguments and because this thread is very one-way traffic and someone has to play the devil's advocate for an argument to be had and a semblance of logic to prevail.
The government would not start hiring customs officials and building up depots until the decision on Brexit becomes more crystallised. And the exact same thing applies to the other side. Calais port would not handle customs checking every lorry from the UK on its current infrastructure. They'll also have to build that up and they've also done nothing on it yet.
Obviously the UK is more dependent on EU trade than the other way round. Which is why the govt said that if push came to shove and we were faced with the worst scenario of "no deal" Brexit and no infrastructure to handle the volume (ergo, potential shortages), they would throw the borders open with no tariff collection until the infrastructure is in place. Which would be a terrible scenario as it would cost billions in lost revenue but it makes the likelihood of shortages is very, very remote.
I generally believe we'll go to a "no deal" Brexit in the sense that there will be no specific trade deal set up for the day after, beyond standard WTO rules. But I do believe that they'll agree on a date when this comes in effect to allow both sides to better prepare for it.
Brexit is like seeing a loved one determined to commit suicide and there's nothing you can do.
Tell me about it. I'm not one for blind optimism but Ι dislike pessimistic doom-mongering as well.
FFS
Ok if you want to be devils advocate then fair enough. Can you tell us then what you see as the positives to come from a no deal brexit?
Mate, most people on here talking from their perspectives and what you gonna find is pessimism comes from being vulnerable to this subject with peoples lifes/well-being/planning/businesses depending on it. Actually, let me guess - you're probably convinced (for a good reason most likely) in whatever you are currently doing that Brexit isn't going to have a significant impact in terms of your job prospects/life planning/business, hence the optimism?
I don't really see any real positives, hence I'm a remainer. I think we're shooting ourselves in the foot, it'll cost us a shit ton of money and set us back 10 years.
But I'm fairly sure we won't end up with food shortages and doomsday scenarios either.
Ok so no positives and only huge negatives. You can understand why there is such doom and gloom about it then? I'm talking as somebody living in Northern Ireland who is genuinely fearful about what brexit (in particular a no deal brexit) will do to the economy, society and stability here - I honestly couldn't care less about some food running out - way more to worry about than that from my perspective.
Apologies, yes, perfect sense. Perils of getting involved while walking. Isnt our primary export whiskey though? I get we will all need a few drinks if no deal happens but dont think we could live off it.
I work in IT for a brokerage firm in London and I recently exchanged on a property. I don't see how that puts me on a list of people that is impervious to the effects of Brexit. Which is what I think you're implying.
The worry is that, if the UK government continues to refuse to face reality, by next year this thread could have the ring of a Sunderland forum thread.