Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Are people still going to be begging for no deal once they've had notices through the door telling them to stockpile food and prepare for power cuts?

Yes, they don't believe anyone who says anything negative about Brexit.

I wonder if we will get one of the notices here in France since we're part of those who supposedly need the UK more than they need the EU.
Most people believe the UK have already left, in spirit at least, and few will notice the difference when they do.
 
You seem aware of all the steps they took to combat the crash but when it happens after a hard Brexit you seem to think inflation will be foremost in their minds, it won't

Because I don't think Brexit will be crash. I don't think everything will go tits up in a year with anywhere near the same severity as what happened in 2008. I believe it will be a worsening of private and public finances over time post-Brexit, rather than a crash. Hence a different response from the BoE.

If it were a crash, then yes I would expect the BoE and the Treasury to take whatever steps are most necessary to recover the situation. And like in 2008, inflation would not be at the forefront of the thoughts of the BoE and neither mine nor yours.
 
One of my colleagues used to work for easyjet as a network engineer, he told me they make all their money in the summer months and run at a loss for the rest of the year.

Nothing to do with this thread but cant be arsed with all the doom mongering.

Theres doom mongering for a reason, stop with this it will be alright nonsense.
 
Because I don't think Brexit will be crash. I don't think everything will go tits up in a year with anywhere near the same severity as what happened in 2008. I believe it will be a worsening of private and public finances over time post-Brexit, rather than a crash. Hence a different response from the BoE.

If it were a crash, then yes I would expect the BoE and the Treasury to take whatever steps are most necessary to recover the situation. And like in 2008, inflation would not be at the forefront of the thoughts of the BoE and neither mine nor yours.

So if we crash they won't control inflation, which is what I said in the first place
 
Inflation fecks the small man, the BOE will let us eat high inflation, it has since 2008 and there's no reason why it wouldn't now

So if we crash they won't control inflation, which is what I said in the first place

No you didn't. You responded to a message that described a reaction (increasing interest rates) to a gradually weakening currency, while the rest of the fundamentals stay the same. You mentioned nothing of a crash. And you made the assertion that we've been eating high inflation because it's been 0.7% above target. Which is laughable really.
 
Shocking that they did that. Right up here with making a desperately ill MP come in to the house in a wheelchair with a sick bag last time. Absolute cnuts.
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-44872808

Australia is overtaking the UK as the world's second biggest destination for international students, says research from University College London.

It's quite nuts to see all of this stuff slow down before the UK has even left the EU, tell-tale signs that no-deal would be awful for the UK, and yet it's still full steam ahead for them on it.
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-44872808



It's quite nuts to see all of this stuff slow down before the UK has even left the EU, tell-tale signs that no-deal would be awful for the UK, and yet it's still full steam ahead for them on it.

Initially where I used to work, there'd been an increase in international postgrads when Sterling fell and it became more affordable. I guess that didn't last long in the face of massive, massive uncertainty
 
No. High inflation fecks everyone. If anything it's one few negative financial metrics that do affect the rich as well as poor. If you mean that they are felt more by the poor, then well...duh. If you're poor anything that hits your finances will be felt with greater impact to your lifestyle that to a rich person.

And what high inflation since 2008? Are you thinking straight? We had one short period with high inflation if I recall in 2010? Heady heights of 4.5% or something. We've had average inflation of 2.7% over the last 10 years. Well within normal rates. And that's despite having to navigate a period where we had a financial system in collapse that required saving, an economy that needed QE to keep operating, a massive budget deficit and finally unemployment figures at double of today's numbers. I'd say all things considered, inflation was somehow kept at pretty low levels despite a highly unstable economy.
The major central banks have been desperately trying to inject inflation into the system, but failing.
QE hasn't worked as planned cos banks have kept hold of the cash rather than lend it. There have been loads of deflationary forces too- growth has been weak, competitive currency devaluing, end of the Chinese commodity super-cycle, companies hoarding cash etc...
 
https://www.bbc.com/news/education-44872808



It's quite nuts to see all of this stuff slow down before the UK has even left the EU, tell-tale signs that no-deal would be awful for the UK, and yet it's still full steam ahead for them on it.

Government probably don't mind this, will allow them to fudge immigration numbers somehow no doubt even though we'll be losing out on tons of talented individuals who could offer us a lot.
 
Cant get past the paywall - care to summarise?

Tories are nasty cheating cnuts?

Basically, yes - acting in bad faith. The Whips were ordering various Tory MPs to ignore an agreement with opposition MPs that they won’t vote on a motion if that opposition MP is unable to vote due to certain reasons (such as maternity leave).
 
Basically, yes - acting in bad faith. The Whips were ordering various Tory MPs to ignore an agreement with opposition MPs that they won’t vote on a motion if that opposition MP is unable to vote due to certain reasons (such as maternity leave).
I feel like this should be a national scandal, so much going on it will probably get swept under the carpet.
 
EU publishes document re preparing withdrawal:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf...-preparing-withdrawal-brexit-preparedness.pdf

Particularly to be noted in a no deal scenario for those who think things will carry on as normal:

Main consequences of scenario 2: withdrawal on 30 March 2019 without a withdrawal agreement  The United Kingdom will be a third country and Union law ceases to apply to and in the United Kingdom9 .  Citizens: There would be no specific arrangement in place for EU citizens in the United Kingdom, or for UK citizens in the European Union.  Border issues: The European Union must apply its regulation and tariffs at borders with the United Kingdom as a third country, including checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards and verification of compliance with EU norms. Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, e.g. in road transport, and difficulties for ports.  Trade and regulatory issues: The United Kingdom becomes a third country whose relations with the European Union would be governed by general international public law, including rules of the World Trade Organisation. In particular, in heavily regulated sectors, this would represent a significant drawback compared to the current level of market integration.  Negotiations with the United Kingdom: Depending on the circumstances leading to the withdrawal without an agreement, the EU may wish to enter into negotiations with the United Kingdom as a third country.  EU funding: UK entities would cease to be eligible as Union entities for the purpose of receiving EU grants and participating in EU procurement procedures. Unless otherwise provided for by the legal provisions in force, candidates or tenderers from the United Kingdom could be rejected.
 
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Of course, we all know this will be spun as bully boy tactics by the EU. It doesn't matter they're pointing out a reality that everyone involved knew (or should have known) since the referendum was first floated as an idea, several years ago, the vile pricks behind Brexit will spin this as the EU making last-minute threats.
 
No you didn't. You responded to a message that described a reaction (increasing interest rates) to a gradually weakening currency, while the rest of the fundamentals stay the same. You mentioned nothing of a crash. And you made the assertion that we've been eating high inflation because it's been 0.7% above target. Which is laughable really.

0.7% above target and almost always ahead of wages so yes, we have been eating high inflation
 
Is it 0.7% or 0.7 points of percentage? The difference is massive and the latter isn't negligeable.
 
0.7% above target and almost always ahead of wages so yes, we have been eating high inflation

I really don't know why I bother tbh, but here goes... one last time.

No, we haven't. While wage growth vs inflation is an important metric, the rate of wage growth does not dictate whether the inflation is high or not. It's the inflation rate alone that dictates that. And same applies for the wage growth.

You could have 50% wage growth and 30% inflation, that's still an abominably high inflation. Because if you have a 50k income and 5 billion fortune, you wouldn't be happy with that inflation and you wouldn't give a feck about the wage growth. Because the currency of your assets is being devalued.

But looking away from the billionaire, if you're a low-skilled worker in a job sector who's median salary hasn't increased in step with the national average, you wouldn't be happy with that inflation. Equally if you're a company who's product or service hasn't increased in value in line with that inflation, the average wage growth could put you out of business in no time.

When the rates of inflation and wage growth are high, the distribution curve for net benefit/loss produces very fat tails. The likelihood of being a massive winner or a massive loser is quite big. This is highly undesirable.

2.7% is not high inflation. Money is not devaluing fast enough to be of a concern to individuals of businesses. The bank considers it normal between 1% and 3% (basically up 1% deviation from the target). So your "high inflation" assertion finds the BoE in disagreement.

And bear in mind, the BoE has no control over median salary and no way to influence it. The only things it has at its disposal is interest rates and printing money, which is only loosely linked to jobs and incomes.

The major central banks have been desperately trying to inject inflation into the system, but failing.
QE hasn't worked as planned cos banks have kept hold of the cash rather than lend it. There have been loads of deflationary forces too- growth has been weak, competitive currency devaluing, end of the Chinese commodity super-cycle, companies hoarding cash etc...

That's a broad statement. Central banks act on their economy and economies are different. Germany for example has a budget surplus, the lowest unemployment in EU, a healthy wage growth and inflation constantly below 2%. So they've been trying to coax inflation. Britain had the worst deficit (post crash) in EU due to the large banking sector that needed saving, above 2% inflation and a wage stagnation.

I don't recall Carney trying to coax inflation, I remember him more worried about keeping it down. I recall him saying that 0.5% inflation due to falling oil prices back in 15'-16' were temporary but not that he'd do anything to increase it. And he didn't. And he later warned against an inflation creep due to Brexit and potentially having to raise interest rates.

As for the effects of QE, it was mostly to buy distressed assets and govt bonds to keep yields low. I think the system recovered liquidity pretty quickly, I don't know to what extend that was down to QE. I mean the banks have been throwing money at people and business since 2012 which fuelled the massive boom in property prices of the last 5-6 years and the large increase in private debt. This might seem a bit anecdotal of course.

Do you have any interesting reading on the side effects of QE in the UK's case? The stuff I read tends to find it quite positive in retrospect.
 
EU publishes document re preparing withdrawal:

https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/inf...-preparing-withdrawal-brexit-preparedness.pdf

Particularly to be noted in a no deal scenario for those who think things will carry on as normal:

Main consequences of scenario 2: withdrawal on 30 March 2019 without a withdrawal agreement  The United Kingdom will be a third country and Union law ceases to apply to and in the United Kingdom9 .  Citizens: There would be no specific arrangement in place for EU citizens in the United Kingdom, or for UK citizens in the European Union.  Border issues: The European Union must apply its regulation and tariffs at borders with the United Kingdom as a third country, including checks and controls for customs, sanitary and phytosanitary standards and verification of compliance with EU norms. Transport between the United Kingdom and the European Union would be severely impacted. Customs, sanitary and phytosanitary controls at borders could cause significant delays, e.g. in road transport, and difficulties for ports.  Trade and regulatory issues: The United Kingdom becomes a third country whose relations with the European Union would be governed by general international public law, including rules of the World Trade Organisation. In particular, in heavily regulated sectors, this would represent a significant drawback compared to the current level of market integration.  Negotiations with the United Kingdom: Depending on the circumstances leading to the withdrawal without an agreement, the EU may wish to enter into negotiations with the United Kingdom as a third country.  EU funding: UK entities would cease to be eligible as Union entities for the purpose of receiving EU grants and participating in EU procurement procedures. Unless otherwise provided for by the legal provisions in force, candidates or tenderers from the United Kingdom could be rejected.

This particularly annoys the hell out of me almost two years and the clowns still haven't sorted anything out and as a UK citizen living in Germany I do not have a clue as to what will happen next March.

What papers will I need, what happens with my pension from the UK and my time in the Army etc. etc. every last one of these so called politicians should be ashamed of themselves.

A referendum is also need to change the name of the country because United Kingdom doesn't work whats united about the UK and Great Britain pull the other one Little Britain fits better.
 
This particularly annoys the hell out of me almost two years and the clowns still haven't sorted anything out and as a UK citizen living in Germany I do not have a clue as to what will happen next March.

What papers will I need, what happens with my pension from the UK and my time in the Army etc. etc. every last one of these so called politicians should be ashamed of themselves.

A referendum is also need to change the name of the country because United Kingdom doesn't work whats united about the UK and Great Britain pull the other one Little Britain fits better.

UK citizens who have moved abroad were always very low on the UK priority list. Now you're forgotten. I doubt you will have a problem staying in Germany but pension etc may be a problem.

Their only intention is to stay in power, what happens to their citizens whether at home or abroad is not important otherwise they wouldn't be continuing with this farce.

I don't see much being sorted out either, they're sleepwalking to disaster.
 
You seem aware of all the steps they took to combat the crash but when it happens after a hard Brexit you seem to think inflation will be foremost in their minds, it won't

It’ll probably be a run on the pound, capital flight and the need to jack interest rates. Britain used to regularly do that stuff.
 
UK citizens who have moved abroad were always very low on the UK priority list. Now you're forgotten. I doubt you will have a problem staying in Germany but pension etc may be a problem.

Their only intention is to stay in power, what happens to their citizens whether at home or abroad is not important otherwise they wouldn't be continuing with this farce.

I don't see much being sorted out either, they're sleepwalking to disaster.

I dunno. I think the removal of right to free movement was very high on their list, and they are prepared to sacrifice brits living, retiring or working abroad to that end.
 
I dunno. I think the removal of right to free movement was very high on their list, and they are prepared to sacrifice brits living, retiring or working abroad to that end.

Yes agree, but because of the FOM issue(amongst others) they are not going to get any deal and so everyone is going to suffer.