Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Ramshock said:
A United Ireland gets closer every day.
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Im not sure a vote is on the cards anytime soon given the conservatives need the unionists to prop up the government but recent polling suggests its not impossible
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html
I do wonder when wee jimmy krankie is going to start banging on about scottish independence again (intruth brexit probably presents their best opportunity of a second ballot)
 
At some point, even he Unionists are going to realise Westminster doesn't give a feck about them.
 
sun_tzu said:
Im not sure a vote is on the cards anytime soon given the conservatives need the unionists to prop up the government but recent polling suggests its not impossible
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-northern-border-uk-yougov-poll-a8389086.html
I do wonder when wee jimmy krankie is going to start banging on about scottish independence again (intruth brexit probably presents their best opportunity of a second ballot)
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The shelf life of that axis of evil is dwindling fast.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
It's going to really hit personal purchases and small companies purchases from the EU. Large companies who buy from all over the world will have some structure in place but not enough if they buy a lot from the EU. Everything will just get much more expensive.
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This will be exacerbated given the fact that these bigger companies will have even less competition and become a monopoly with typical price fixing due to the fact that the smaller companies will fold and the consumer will have little to no alternative.
 
My guts tells me that even proud England would backtrack on Brexit in a faux-Brexit (accepting 4 freedoms) or asking to come back at the last moment. This does not make absolutely no sense economically speaking
 
So can someone explain to me why us falling back to WTO is so bad?

Can't we just set really nothing tariffs? Isn't that good?
 
Berbasbullet said:
:lol: Sorry! I am so ignorant on the subject - People keep telling me going onto WTO is fine.
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In my ignorance, bad english and resuming, WTO means:

- If you keep tariffs = More expensive
- If you lower tariffs to 0 to EU, means you have to lower tariffs to 0 to the rest of the world (can't cherry pick countries as I understand) = meaning you can't compete, and lower quality products from less developed countries
- WTO means hard borders yes or yes even with tariffs at 0 because you have to comply on the regulations. That means huge lines on the borders (road and ports) meaning no just in time production

And many other things that people that understand more than me explained on these 700 pages
 
C3Pique said:
What people keep telling you that? And what is their expertise in international trade?
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I don't know, the same as you?

I just wanted some guidance so I can have a sensible conversation with the annoying people at work who keep telling me it will all be okay when it does not seem like the case.
 
Berbasbullet said:
I don't know, the same as you?

I just wanted some guidance so I can have a sensible conversation with the annoying people at work who keep telling me it will all be okay when it does not seem like the case.
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I would probably start with DExEu's own impact assessments that state a WTO exit mean 8% lower GDP, (that's £158b) and 2,800,000 people put into unemployment. Or do you work somewhere with better financial impact forecasting than the Treasury?
 
C3Pique said:
I would probably start with DExEu's own impact assessments that state a WTO exit mean 8% lower GDP, (that's £158b) and 2,800,000 people put into unemployment. Or do you work somewhere with better financial impact forecasting than the Treasury?
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To be fair given the treasury's historic success at financial forecasting (or lack thereof) provided he doesn't work for rbs then most probably.
 
@C3Pique , I think he is genuinely asking for information, no need to get cocky. Or then you will cry when you can't convince a brexiteer
 
C3Pique said:
I would probably start with DExEu's own impact assessments that state a WTO exit mean 8% lower GDP, (that's £158b) and 2,800,000 people put into unemployment. Or do you work somewhere with better financial impact forecasting than the Treasury?
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Okay, thanks.
 
4bars said:
@C3Pique , I think he is genuinely asking for information, no need to get cocky. Or then you will cry when you can't convince a brexiteer
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I just wanted some information, as I am completely ignorant on the subject - if it makes any difference I voted remain.
 
Berbasbullet said:
I don't know, the same as you?

I just wanted some guidance so I can have a sensible conversation with the annoying people at work who keep telling me it will all be okay when it does not seem like the case.
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It has been covered dozens of times, 4bars covered some of it.

UK has to present it's tariff schedules to the other WTO members. At present they belong to the WTO because they are members of the EU, next year they will not be and have to join in their own right and get approved by the other members.

Being on WTO means hard borders everywhere including in Ireland. Customs checks, massive delays at ports, airports
Now if the hard Brexiters like Redwood, Mogg Johnson Fox etc get their way and reduce tariffs to say zero plus the delays in customs will completely destroy the UK manufacturing industry and they don't care.

Reducing tariffs to zero means they have to reduce the tariffs to zero for every country thus the UK will be swamped with all type of crap goods , they'll have no control.

One small example that I was actively involved in was about 15 years ago and didn't involve the UK. The USA decided to reduce tariffs to zero on a certain product that originated from China (but was also produced in the USA) to help the Chinese economy prosper. Because the Chinese product was much cheaper the Americans bought the Chinese product and the whole USA industry of that product disappeared within a few years. Only one company survived and they were our customer.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
It has been covered dozens of times, 4bars covered some of it.

UK has to present it's tariff schedules to the other WTO members. At present they belong to the WTO because they are members of the EU, next year they will not be and have to join in their own right and get approved by the other members.

Being on WTO means hard borders everywhere including in Ireland. Customs checks, massive delays at ports, airports
Now if the hard Brexiters like Redwood, Mogg Johnson Fox etc get their way and reduce tariffs to say zero plus the delays in customs will completely destroy the UK manufacturing industry and they don't care.

Reducing tariffs to zero means they have to reduce the tariffs to zero for every country thus the UK will be swamped with all type of crap goods , they'll have no control.

One small example that I was actively involved in was about 15 years ago and didn't involve the UK. The USA decided to reduce tariffs to zero on a certain product that originated from China (but was also produced in the USA) to help the Chinese economy prosper. Because the Chinese product was much cheaper the Americans bought the Chinese product and the whole USA industry of that product disappeared within a few years. Only one company survived and they were our customer.
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That's interesting! Thank you for this.
 
Berbasbullet said:
That's interesting! Thank you for this.
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The same is true with regulations, the only exemptions are when a custom or trade area is created which is why the vast majority of countries in the world are part of one.
 
Berbasbullet said:
So can someone explain to me why us falling back to WTO is so bad?

Can't we just set really nothing tariffs? Isn't that good?
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This is good if you're Jacob Rees Mogg and you have an investment fund that has millions invested up in emerging economies. Those companies would be worth a fortune once tariff free, and unvetted access without any requirements to uphold standards to the UK market is allowed. You would make an absolute killing literally overnight.

This is bad if you're not Jacob Rees Mogg.

I hope this helps.
 
I'm just getting through some of the technical papers. We really are in the shit aren't we?
I find it amazing that we'd still be subject to EU laws and regulations under no deal. Just end this farce ffs.
 
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Smores said:
See now i can't help procrastinating...I've got

12 layers of red tape,
11 border crossings,
10-tion in Ireland
Nien trade deals,
8.5 net contribution,
7 years of Boris,
6 banks be leaving,
5 million freezing,
Four-ty miles of traffic,
3-dom of movement,
2 Bent bannans
And a boat full of OAPs

Here all week folks :lol:
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nailed it
 
Official papers from the UK government state: "The Irish Government have indicated they would need to discuss arrangements in the event of a no deal with the European Commission and EU member states.

"We would recommend that, if you trade across the land border, you should consider whether you will need advice from the Irish government about preparations you need to make."
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Or in other words, "Not only were we stupid enough to vote for this Brexit thing, but we are also not clever enough to implement it, so we are going to abdicate from our responsibility to find a solution for the mess we created and then hopefully get away with blaming others when it inevitably goes to shit."

So fecked it's unbelievable. It would be very funny if the upcoming hit wasn't going to be so real.
 
We're sticking it to the German car manufacturers and French wine growers!

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Adisa said:
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Listened to this. Jonathan? Jonathan?

Leavers just bare faced ignorance of hard facts is infuriating. It's just about winning now, no matter the cost as no one can put forward any benefit to this path.
 
Adisa said:
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I especially liked the line
"The fact that you do not know what you're talking about doesn't do you any favours".

Yes there is a small section of Brexiters like Mogg Fox Redwood who are hoping for an economic collapse of the UK.
But the remaining 17.4 million are so ignorant beyond belief and nothing anyone can say will ever convince them.

I'm not even convinced that them losing their jobs, a 25% increase in their shopping bill or even food shortages would made them change their minds.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I especially liked the line
"The fact that you do not know what you're talking about doesn't do you any favours".

Yes there is a small section of Brexiters like Mogg Fox Redwood who are hoping for an economic collapse of the UK.
But the remaining 17.4 million are so ignorant beyond belief and nothing anyone can say will ever convince them.

I'm not even convinced that them losing their jobs, a 25% increase in their shopping bill or even food shortages would made them change their minds.
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I think that the fundamental issue is that people don't understand what independent means in politics or trade, they seem to think that it's synonym with doing whatever you want whenever you want and that no one is linked. They also fail to understand the concept of area, for example when the EU and Japan have a trade agreement, they create a trade area, if one of them negotiate a trade deal with a third country they will have to notify the other and have a EU-Japan formal agreement first because the new third country will affect the EU-Japan trade area.
 
JPRouve said:
I think that the fundamental issue is that people don't understand what independent means in politics or trade, they seem to think that it's synonym with doing whatever you want whenever you want and that no one is linked. They also fail to understand the concept of area, for example when the EU and Japan have a trade agreement, they create a trade area, if one of them negotiate a trade deal with a third country they will have to notify the other and have a EU-Japan formal agreement first because the new third country will affect the EU-Japan trade area.
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Yes, something that Jonathan Isaby said, " we can deal with other independent countries", there are no other independent countries, except maybe North Korea? they're all part of some agreements with someone, only the UK will have no agreements with anyone.
 
Kentonio said:
They don't believe its true. If they did believe it was true, Remain would be polling at >90%.
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Sure they don't believe it's true now . But that's my point, if what is predicted to happen , does actually happen, I'm not even sure that that many would even then change their minds. I know it sounds insane but what's sane about voting leave in the first place.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Sure they don't believe it's true now . But that's my point, if what is predicted to happen , does actually happen, I'm not even sure that that many would even then change their minds. I know it sounds insane but what's sane about voting leave in the first place.
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I think we lack the capacity to imagine anything really bad happening to the UK - as a nation (England even more so than the other parts) we have been largely spared traumas compared to our neighbours and have this bullet proof complacency.
 
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