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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

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They don't want the public to know the true scale of the impact.
 
Kentonio said:
It makes no sense to me. If she wants to push MPs to accept her plan, then surely she'd WANT them to see the consequences of rejecting it? Or am I missing something?
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It's not the MPs she wants to keep in the dark.
 
SteveJ said:
They don't want the public to know the true scale of the impact.
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Adisa said:
It's not the MPs she wants to keep in the dark.
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But again, if she genuinely wants her Chequers plan to be voted for, then it’s in her total interest for everyone to be shit scared of the alternative. Not today, but just before the vote surely? If she hides it and they vote down her plan, then she’ll be blamed for not telling people the consequences.

I can only see it as yet another part of the Tory infighting. That if she shows MPs the full impact, that the JRM crowd will turn on her fully.
 
Kentonio said:
But again, if she genuinely wants her Chequers plan to be voted for, then it’s in her total interest for everyone to be shit scared of the alternative. Not today, but just before the vote surely? If she hides it and they vote down her plan, then she’ll be blamed for not telling people the consequences.

I can only see it as yet another part of the Tory infighting. That if she shows MPs the full impact, that the JRM crowd will turn on her fully.
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Chequers is long dead, the EU rejects it and so do the Brexiters. There will be no vote on it.
 
Kentonio said:
I’m assuming by then the ‘Chequers plan’ will have changed substantially after the EU insist on changes.
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The EU will insist that the 4 freedoms are not compromised and the Chequers plan is so far away from that, she'll have to think of another name.
At this moment in time I don't see anything but a no deal because I don't see how either or both sides can compromise.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The EU will insist that the 4 freedoms are not compromised and the Chequers plan is so far away from that, she'll have to think of another name.
At this moment in time I don't see anything but a no deal because I don't see how either or both sides can compromise.
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I think she’s more likely to try and claim it’s not that different (despite being substantially different). There’s only so many times she can openly change position publicly.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The EU will insist that the 4 freedoms are not compromised and the Chequers plan is so far away from that, she'll have to think of another name.
At this moment in time I don't see anything but a no deal because I don't see how either or both sides can compromise.
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The EU has a track record of fudgy compromises that continuously kick the can down the road (see Greece). I can see that happening, woth transition periods and alignment etc.
 
Kentonio said:
I think she’s more likely to try and claim it’s not that different (despite being substantially different). There’s only so many times she can openly change position publicly.
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One of the big problems is the Customs Union, stay in that and the big boast of doing their own deals goes out the window. But there is so much more that needs changing.

GloryHunter07 said:
The EU has a track record of fudgy compromises that continuously kick the can down the road (see Greece). I can see that happening, woth transition periods and alignment etc.
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I think this is different, I can't see them compromising on anything that threatens the four freedoms. Haven't seen any sign of anyone in the EU who wants to compromise.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
I think this is different, I can't see them compromising on anything that threatens the four freedoms. Haven't seen any sign of anyone in the EU who wants to compromise.
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Its possible that they find a fudge where they arent seen to be compromising (like a transition period). Time will tell.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Its possible that they find a fudge where they arent seen to be compromising (like a transition period). Time will tell.
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Not much time though. I am excited to see which will be the outcome. It will be the UK screaming in panic or Nobody happy for a compromise that does not fulfill anyone
 
GloryHunter07 said:
Its possible that they find a fudge where they arent seen to be compromising (like a transition period). Time will tell.
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A transition period seems the only possibility but then the UK would have to accept things as they are for that duration, don't see how that will be accepted by the UK, and eventually the transition period ends and everyone's back to roughly where we are now. There's not long to go before we find out.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
A transition period seems the only possibility but then the UK would have to accept things as they are for that duration, don't see how that will be accepted by the UK, and eventually the transition period ends and everyone's back to roughly where we are now. There's not long to go before we find out.
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DO you think a transition period is possible? Maybe continue like that for a a couple of years?
 
4bars said:
DO you think a transition period is possible? Maybe continue like that for a a couple of years?
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For me it's the only likely alternative to a crash out in March but that's if May can convince everyone to carry on as they are until the end of 2020. But the UK still leave the EU in March whatever. The Brexiters are restless. Don't really see them waiting for four and a half years after the referendum and then what, the same problems will be there on 1st January 2021 as they will on 30th March 2019.
 
The problem with the transition period is the EU budget time frame.
 
So the extension period is in the talks? I thought it was just a small possibility. Frankly, as an external observant I want the result now. Till 2020 going around and around would be too much

But if there is that extension, I would see a feasible option for second referendum
 
sun_tzu said:
Not necessarily... Though I think any extension would require financial commitments for the next fiscal period... Probably more of an issue for a UK (particularly a pro brexit one) than the EU
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But the next budget period is 2021-2027 and the contributions are only paid by member states, no rebates, no MEPs and no say as the UK will be leaving as a member next year. The EU have said the maximum transition period can be till end 2020 to allow adjustment time for both.

Even if it were possible, Brexiters don't even want to pay the £39bn they owe, even members of the cabinet have said that, let alone another 7 years without rebates and no say.
 
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4bars said:
So the extension period is in the talks? I thought it was just a small possibility. Frankly, as an external observant I want the result now. Till 2020 going around and around would be too much

But if there is that extension, I would see a feasible option for second referendum
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The extension is only possible if they agree a deal, ie the Irish border, citizens rights and payment of their dues and that the UK adhere to the rules. But even with the transition the UK leaves next March so any future referendum thereafter would be to rejoin.

But we should know whether a deal will be possible in the next couple of months.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The extension is only possible if they agree a deal, ie the Irish border, citizens rights and payment of their dues and that the UK adhere to the rules. But even with the transition the UK leaves next March so any future referendum thereafter would be to rejoin.

But we should know whether a deal will be possible in the next couple of months.
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So there is not possibility of an extension to extend the deal negotiations? Only extension if there is a deal (or no deal firm) for both parts to get used at the new status?
 
4bars said:
So there is not possibility of an extension to extend the deal negotiations? Only extension if there is a deal (or no deal firm) for both parts to get used at the new status?
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If there is a deal it has to be ratified by the 27 remaining members plus normally the UK. This all has to take place by the time the UK leaves the EU next March so both sides are saying they need to settle the deal by October or possibly early November at the latest .

Transition theoretically will allow time for the UK to start negotiating some trade deals and for both sides to build and arrange the infrastructure needed to cope with the situation of the UK no longer being in the CU/SM.

Personally it's just delaying the inevitable and a 21 month extension period is nowhere near long enough for the UK to negotiate anything. 61% of their trade is with the EU or countries who have trade deals with the EU and they're ripping them all up and starting from scratch.
There are no words.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The extension is only possible if they agree a deal, ie the Irish border, citizens rights and payment of their dues and that the UK adhere to the rules. But even with the transition the UK leaves next March so any future referendum thereafter would be to rejoin.

But we should know whether a deal will be possible in the next couple of months.
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I would also rejoin would be as a new member... I.e. no rebates and using the euro

Which I think would be a pretty tough sell
 
Paul the Wolf said:
If there is a deal it has to be ratified by the 27 remaining members plus normally the UK. This all has to take place by the time the UK leaves the EU next March so both sides are saying they need to settle the deal by October or possibly early November at the latest .

Transition theoretically will allow time for the UK to start negotiating some trade deals and for both sides to build and arrange the infrastructure needed to cope with the situation of the UK no longer being in the CU/SM.

Personally it's just delaying the inevitable and a 21 month extension period is nowhere near long enough for the UK to negotiate anything. 61% of their trade is with the EU or countries who have trade deals with the EU and they're ripping them all up and starting from scratch.
There are no words.
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I thought an extension could be done as well for the negotiation, that I would consider useless. but a period of acclimatization for both parts I think would be positive because the decision would be done and you will need to see the implementation of the new situation clearly as you will be out with no deal or agreed deal so you will be able to detect your needs clearly
 
sun_tzu said:
Possibly... Though I guess any net contributor overall will be of some loss to a degree
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Definitely it is, is not gonna be a win for the EU, even with the UK and his special status in the EU like no other country
 
So our Prime Minister is dancing for a deal in South Africa that will inevitably be worse than the deal we have by already being in the EU. I wonder what ministers will do to get a substandard Canadian deal? Buggar a moose live on TV?
 
Cloudface said:
So our Prime Minister is dancing for a deal in South Africa that will inevitably be worse than the deal we have by already being in the EU. I wonder what ministers will do to get a substandard Canadian deal? Buggar a moose live on TV?
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Why do you think bacon is so cheap ?
 
Stanley Road said:
Only their contributions to eastern europe subsidies, perhaps Germany will top up. Doubt it.
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sun_tzu said:
Possibly... Though I guess any net contributor overall will be of some loss to a degree
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What gets me about this talk of the contributions is that although they are net contributors, as are most of the major countries, in the grand scheme of things the amount is trivial.
When you consider that the UK pays net of around £8bn/year and their total expenditure is around £900bn/year, it's peanuts.

Now around 6% of all the contributions go to running the EU, so roughly the UK pays £500million/year for that and the rest goes for projects and aid etc.

Yes there will be a hole in the budget without the UK but it's not a massive hole, most will no doubt be funded by Germany, France etc or if it wasn't some projects may be cut back.

For me it's a big fuss about relatively little.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
What gets me about this talk of the contributions is that although they are net contributors, as are most of the major countries, in the grand scheme of things the amount is trivial.
When you consider that the UK pays net of around £8bn/year and their total expenditure is around £900bn/year, it's peanuts.

Now around 6% of all the contributions go to running the EU, so roughly the UK pays £500million/year for that and the rest goes for projects and aid etc.

Yes there will be a hole in the budget without the UK but it's not a massive hole, most will no doubt be funded by Germany, France etc or if it wasn't some projects may be cut back.

For me it's a big fuss about relatively little.
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It's actually fairly easy to fix the hole, the EU neighborhood policy will probably be the first option.
 
sun_tzu said:
Loose loose situation as far as I see it
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Absolutely.
sun_tzu said:
Both sides trying to spin it that the other Lost more....
Not the most conducive atmosphere to collaborative talks
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There's no contest on which economy will be affected more. I don't really see any high ranking EU officials do much spinning (they don't need to, reality is bad enough), but I may just be missing it.
 
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