They might go with it depending on the wording but yes it does mean customs union which in my view is great news but won't be supported by hard liners.
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They might go with it depending on the wording but yes it does mean customs union which in my view is great news but won't be supported by hard liners.
Would that pass Corbyn's 'six tests' or however it was phrased?
Probably, since most of those six tests are all so vague and meaningless to the point where they can be construed in any way that suits your own perspective.
"Does it deliver the “exact same benefits” as we currently have as members of the Single Market and Customs Union?" - I can't see how any deal, other than literally remaining in the Single Market and Customs Union, would pass this test.
Just the Custom's Union?
To be fair that is likely to be exactly what will be proposed, albeit with slightly different names/wording.
No chance they retain the freedom of movement required by the Single Market.
Being in the custom union only doesn't prevent checks and borders from appearing, does it? Can't see how that solves the border issue still.
Pretty much. Labour seem to have at least moved from tacitly supporting a hard Brexit to supporting 'transitionally' staying in the single market and customs union now - I suspect the 'transitional' part involves them hoping people sort of move on and forget about immigration and don't demand an end to EU freedom of movement.
It's annoying that that clause is down to bullshitter-in-chief Davis's false promises.
To pass the six tests the Uk has to stay in the EU.
If they do manage to kick the Brexit can down the road to the next general election, it'll be interesting to see if either Con or Lab change tack. Surely May won't still be leader.
Might depend on how the Brexiteers currently within the party react. If they're unhappy and decide to revolt then she'll finally be gone. But at the same time they might realise they can't implement their own hard Brexit since it's an impossibility - if so she might cling on for a while longer yet. Somehow.
Well yeah I guess, if we're talking same benefits. That's basically Corbyn pushing for hard Brexit.
Have to be in the SM as well - agreeing with the EU is the easy part, the UK agreeing with the UK is the difficult part.
Based on the alleged difference between NI and the rest of the UK, I suspect that the checks will be made away from the border, basically do what the EU initially suggested and use the Irish sea as the border and check in ports.
I'm still hoping for a miracle, like waking up and finding out Bobby Ewing is still alive and he was only in the shower. The nearer we get to this disaster, the more I can't believe we're actually doing it.
not so sure the DUP are the critical votes...
they will almost certainly vote against it
probably a hard core brexit mob will might be as low as 20 might be as high as 50
but potentially May could only need around 30 votes to get her through... there are I think 12 liberal MP's and its not inconceivable quite a few of those may vote for a deal rather than no deal
that would possibly leave around 20 votes to find and I could I see 20 labour MP's defying the whip to vote for a deal - im not sure but it sounds possible
I think it all depends on what happens if parliament votes down the deal. If it's an automatic hard Brexit then the parliamentary maths will be entirely different from if it's 'well maybe we stay in'.
It's a legal question we don't have the answer to yet.
and the government are going to have to publish their legal advice... hummm its going to get messy i think
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-advice-irish-border-parliament-a8631091.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-advice-irish-border-parliament-a8631091.html
certainly the intention has been set out that it will be a take it or leave it vote (mays deal or no deal)- on or around 20th Decemember before parliament stops for xmas... no amendments will be allowed to the bill is what they have said
The UK's legal advice is one thing, but won't it ultimately come down the the European Court of Justice to rule on if Article 50 can be unilaterally rescinded by the UK?
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oh god that’s going to be so ugly. It’s basically going to show them to be going ahead with something that is severely against the country’s interest. Where that leaves them in terms of legal exposure when they inevitably go against that advice is anyone’s guess.Yep, which supposedly happens very soon.
This month?
At least thats what this article suggests
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...icle-50-case-going-to-ecj-says-scottish-court
It's less about whether May can get it through parliament overall, and more about what her own side think. If the hardliner Tories and DUP want to collapse her government I suspect opposition parties will join in with them doing so.
Looks like Cabinet will fall in line. What a bunch of whimps.
This is what Boris Johnson said tonight about Theresa May’s Brexitdeal.
This has been ‘Chronicle of a Death Foretold’ for some months. We are going to stay in the customs union, we are going to stay in large parts of the single market.
It’s vassal state stuff as for the first time in 1,000 years this parliament will not have a say over the laws that govern this country.
It is utterly unacceptable to anybody who believes in democracy ...
For the first time since partition, Dublin would have more say in some aspects of the governing of Northern Ireland than London. So I don’t see how you can support from a democratic point of view.
Jeremy Corbyn has put out this statement
We will look at the details of what has been agreed when they are available. But from what we know of the shambolic handling of these negotiations, this is unlikely to be a good deal for the country.
Labour has been clear from the beginning that we need a deal to support jobs and the economy - and that guarantees standards and protections. If this deal doesn’t meet our six tests and work for the whole country, then we will vote against it
Square One?
This has been ‘Chronicle of a Death Foretold’ for some months. We are going to stay in the customs union, we are going to stay in large parts of the single market.
It’s vassal state stuff as for the first time in 1,000 years this parliament will not have a say over the laws that govern this country.
It is utterly unacceptable to anybody who believes in democracy ...
For the first time since partition, Dublin would have more say in some aspects of the governing of Northern Ireland than London. So I don’t see how you can support from a democratic point of view.
Jeremy Corbyn has put out this statement
We will look at the details of what has been agreed when they are available. But from what we know of the shambolic handling of these negotiations, this is unlikely to be a good deal for the country.
Labour has been clear from the beginning that we need a deal to support jobs and the economy - and that guarantees standards and protections. If this deal doesn’t meet our six tests and work for the whole country, then we will vote against it
Square One?
There is that possibility - though if they really wanted to do it then the budget was the most obvious target...
That said if you really wanted a hard brexit there is a timeline that works well if you loose the vote on the brexit bill then parliament it will likley be the last bill before Xmas
so once parliament reforms if they vote her down on any old thing in January it then triggers a vote of confidence within 2 weeks... this probably puts us late jan / early feb
If may is defeted it triggers a leadership election in the conservative party (not a general election)... this took around 2 months last time - even an accelerated one would likely take 4 to 6 weeks
which takes us probably to early march with most probably a brexiteer winning the conservative election saying mays deal isn't acceptable we come out in 2 weeks with no deal.
It is a possibility but I cant help but think that the likley candidates (mogg, Davies, johnson) would rather let her leave with a deal then moan about it and use it as a means to oust her and take control of what really matters - i.e. the negotiations of the final deal
It has been one step forward and two steps back. I use the term forwards loosely by the way.
Hehe.
Go on then...knife her.
So so naive.. wonder will he say the same when bombs are going off
That’s typical Boris Johnson that you quote - a superfluous literary reference to show off, the hypocrisy of using the vassal state argument (the old lie of Eurosceptics which will now become true thanks to their machinations) and the complete failure to provide any constructive alternative solution.
" Lead economist of the official Leave campaign. "
He even forgot to delete it.
All without actually having read the agreement he's criticising.
So a question for the British posters on here (almost all Remainers) - would you prefer that May’s deal gets approved or would you want it voted down? Accept the certainty of leaving but with the assurance of short term stability or take the risk on political deadlock which could result in the chaos of crashing out with no deal but does leave open the possibility that parliament might throw this intractable mess back to a second referendum?
The latter. (Neither options are that palatable though)
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