Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

[Classical Mechanic]

You also have the fact it's taken this fecking long to figure out what the hell the plan is with regards to Brexit, and it's still not clear.
How much time will it take to renegotiate trade deals with every single country you'd want to trade with?

The idea is that it shouldn't be too traumatic with nations that already have a trade deal with the EU as the basic template and qualifying standards are already there. There would be some tweaking to better tailor the deal better to the specific interests of the partners involved (the key advantage of a bilateral deal).

Deals with the likes of India and China would obviously be a lot more complicated.

what does "leave properly" even mean. at the time of the referendum nobody knew what way you'd "leave" so what exactly does leaving mean now?

It can only mean hard Brexit.

 

[Massive Spanner]

It can only mean hard Brexit.

Why?

At the time of the referendum were people made aware by the leave campaign that you lose free trade with the EU? The difference between hard and soft brexit? that a hard border would be needed in Ireland? that the NHS, would not in fact, get £350m extra week? Was any of this said?

There was no such thing as 'leave properly' because nobody knew how you were going to leave. The leave campaign never gave any details. It's only since the result that these hard and soft options have been coming out of the woodwork.

 

[Adisa]

I get the bilateral trade deal benefit in theory. But the truth is that the deals with big economies will extract a high price. India is already talking about VISA free travel for its citizens. America has openly talked about opening our healthcare system. Nigeria (Africa's largest economy) have spoken about complete reconstruction of how the Home Office treat Nigerian citizens. I can testify to how crap it is. And lowering standards for Nigerian farm produce.
There's a fantasy that we can just walk up to countries, especially Commonwealth countries and say "give us a good deal".
I can't see how the deal we could sign could be better than the one we currently have. And I don't mean to say the deals we have in place are perfect. The EU is actually quite good at negotiating for its bloc.

I get the right wing argument. Another vote will probably unleash right wing populism like never before. But I don't think that's a good enough argument to pursue brexit at any cost. If Remain wins again, it's because some people have changed their minds. The fear of cnuts shouldn't mean we pandering to them.
It's all academic though cause I don't think there will be anitano referendum. Parliament will vote for May's deal.

 

[Andrew~]

I think most people recognise that there'd be no guarantee. Just that there'd be a somewhat decent chance. Polling for remain is reasonably strong and the process for leaving has been a complete cock-up from start to finish, highlighting the stupidity of the process. I doubt any Remain vote would manage to get above 55% and so it'd obviously be an incredibly tight hypothetical vote, but if lessons could be learned from 2016 then there'd be a decent chance. Although it's all hypothetical anyway since a second vote won't happen.

Maybe it's easier to stay after watching it play out over the last two years.

I'd say more people and even politicians are informed of the process and ramifications. The run up to the vote was a lot of scaremongering without much explanation of key parts of the membership.

While NI is not in peoples thoughts now or before, the actual idea of a return of a hard border is something most people would want to avoid. Leaving the EU means a hard border unless the EU give in and undermine the whole of the EU.

On the other hand I do see some have soured on the EU with not being very helpful.

Not known before the result was how Scotland and NI voted to stay in. If the EU is stubborn and the UK leaves then Scotland will go for another indy referendum and try to join the EU. NI face a tough outlook of a hard border or somehow breaking away to be part of the EU. Could be the end of the UK. Perhaps for some that would be good though.

Right now Brexit is very complicated with four countries, a big Ireland border issue, it's at an impasse. For a single country it would be much easier but still economically risky.

Not explained before was banking passport and financial services. UK is the financial hub of the world and that is in danger.

We don't have many cards to play with the EU. Do we want to call their bluff?

Hm, I'm not convinced this would turn out like that. If this was still a purely policy discussion, you guys are probably right. But it seems to me this has turned into another extension of the culture war and I honestly don't think there is as much love for the EU as some people seem to think.

 

[Adisa]

Look at the entire thread. Some brexiteers really were living on another planet.

 

[Massive Spanner]

How is #1 a UK win anyway?

 

[Adisa]

UK government finally realised a bad deal is better than no deal.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

This is just a loss for both sides and more annoyingly all the ill informed Brexiters will be able to bang about hypotheticals and how if we'd have left properly with no deal we'd be so much better off. Meh

 

[horsechoker]

This is just a loss for both sides and more annoyingly all the ill informed Brexiters will be able to bang about hypotheticals and how if we'd have left properly with no deal we'd be so much better off. Meh

Yeah I fear this but it could be a lot worse, this is a cup partially full scenario rather than an empty cup scenario.

 

[Rajma]

I don't get @esmufc07 and @rpitchfo outlook with respect to honoring the vote because of the fare it may rise a far-right sentiment across the country when you guys know full well the referendum vote demographics. The reality is simple overwhelming majority that voted Brexit will no longer be on this planet in 20 years time, or do you see pensioners rioting big time in the near future?

 

[Adisa]

For anyone in doubt about how dishonest these people are.

 

[Sphaero]

You also have the fact it's taken this fecking long to figure out what the hell the plan is with regards to Brexit, and it's still not clear.
How much time will it take to renegotiate trade deals with every single country you'd want to trade with?

Realistically? Decades. People who think that these agreements will just be tweaks of numbers and letters to the existing EU deals really underestimate the complexity of these deals. The terms have completely changed as the UK offers only a fraction of the buyers market and nowhere near as much in goods compared to the EU, both in variety and size.

The bureaucratic work alone to negotiate and work out this immense number of deals would be staggering and the UK lacks the manpower in each of the three democratic branches to pull that of in any decent amount of time unless they shoehorn it in which will leave the UK with very poor terms.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

I don't get @esmufc07 and @rpitchfo outlook with respect to honoring the vote because of the fare it may rise a far-right sentiment across the country when you guys know full well the referendum vote demographics. The reality is simple overwhelming majority that voted Brexit will no longer be on this planet in 20 years time, or do you see pensioners rioting big time in the near future?

No word of a lie my partners parents said they "did it for their grandchildren". And what they thought they were doing was voting to keep more foreigners from coming into the country.

The simple fact of the matter is leave would never have won if the government had listened to people's concerns on immigration (rightly or wrongly) and enacted some of the measures that Paul quoted Gordon Brown on a few pages back.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Exactly you can't just blame the guy who gave the choice you have to blame the people who voted for it .

You can certainly blame Cameron for the disastrous structure of the referendum. What other country would institute such major, unprecedented constitutional changes on a simple majority referendum? That's insanity. It was 52/48 - when the margins are so slim, the outcome literally depends on the weather on the day of the vote and the turnout. Hold the vote a week later and we stay in the EU? These are permanent changes to the very nature of our country that will affect many generations to come, you can't in good conscience make such a decision on a whim. That's why every sane country on earth makes it bloody difficult to change fundamental aspects of their constitution (I'm well aware that the UK doesn't have a formal written constitution).

It should have required either a 2/3rds vote to leave, or required all of the UK's consistent nations to have voted in a majority to leave. The gamble Cameron took with our country was bordering on treasonous.

 

[Maagge]

Realistically? Decades. People who think that these agreements will just be tweaks of numbers and letters to the existing EU deals really underestimate the complexity of these deals. The terms have completely changed as the UK offers only a fraction of the buyers market and nowhere near as much in goods compared to the EU, both in variety and size.

The bureaucratic work alone to negotiate and work out this immense number of deals would be staggering and the UK lacks the manpower in each of the three democratic branches to pull that of in any decent amount of time unless they shoehorn it in which will leave the UK with very poor terms.

Yeah just the sheer amount of paperwork I imagine is required makes me dizzy. And as you say, how many people have the UK actually got who're experienced negotiating international trade deals? You'd reckon a lot of the work was carried out by EU people and quite a while ago as well.
Without knowing anything about trade deals I imagine countries negotiating with the UK in the beginning of a no deal scenario know full well that the UK need some bloody trade deals pronto. So that's your leverage right there.

 

[Ultimate Grib]

You can certainly blame Cameron for the disastrous structure of the referendum. What other country would institute such major, unprecedented constitutional changes on a simple majority referendum. That's insanity. It was 52/48 - when it's that close the outcome literally depends on the weather on the day of the vote the margins are so slim.

It should either have required a 2/3rds vote to leave, or required all of the UK's consistent nations to have voted in a majority to leave. The gamble Cameron took with our country was bordering on treasonous.

It was unthinkable that leave would win just like in the the Scottish indyref. Ther were both merely appeasement gestures to make the "rebels" and the SNP pipe down!

A lot of people didn't think it was that close and didn't vote, a lot voted in protest against the government and few voted "leave" for fun. The dawn of this has left those people horrified at the consequences and if there will ever be a re-run there will be a huge majority for remain.

 

[Rajma]

No word of a lie my partners parents said they "did it for their grandchildren". And what they thought they were doing was voting to keep more foreigners from coming into the country.

The simple fact of the matter is leave would never have won if the government had listened to people's concerns on immigration (rightly or wrongly) and enacted some of the measures that Paul quoted Gordon Brown on a few pages back.

Oh yes, the successive governments failed to work to currently available measures under the EU directives to tackle those immigration issues that people seem to be very vocal about (i.e. jobless and on benefits, etc.). In fact, remain campaign did an awful job of not bringing this up during the lead to referendum (did not want to expose themselves as total amateurs for not doing their job properly?).

 

[stevoc]

It was unthinkable that leave would win just like in the the Scottish indyref. Ther were both merely appeasement gestures to make the "rebels" and the SNP pipe down!

A lot of people didn't think it was that close and didn't vote, a lot voted in protest against the government and few voted "leave" for fun. The dawn of this has left those people horrified at the consequences and if there will ever be a re-run there will be a huge majority for remain.

Thats one of the craziest reasons to vote in a referendum, surely the time to protest vote was in the General Election a year earlier. There must have been loads of others who voted for stupid reasons as well.

I remember the day after the referendum watching the news and they were asking people which way they voted and why. One guy said he voted leave because it was time for a change as he was sick of the Tories. Looked a bit puzzled when the reporter explained it wasn't a general election and the Tories will still be in Government.

 

[Fully Fledged]

So a question for the British posters on here (almost all Remainers) - would you prefer that May’s deal gets approved or would you want it voted down? Accept the certainty of leaving but with the assurance of short term stability or take the risk on political deadlock which could result in the chaos of crashing out with no deal but does leave open the possibility that parliament might throw this intractable mess back to a second referendum?

It depends what it is. If it secures free trade, trade laws and reasonably free movement then its better than dropping off a cliff.

 

[Fully Fledged]

Why are people here so confident that if there was a second vote, the previous vote would be overturned?

I’m not. I think there is every chance that people would still vote to leave.
Everybody I know who voted leave would still vote the same way.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

Thats one of the craziest reasons to vote in a referendum, surely the time to protest vote was in the General Election a year earlier. There must have been loads of others who voted for stupid reasons as well.

I remember the day after the referendum watching the news and they were asking people which way they voted and why. One guy said he voted leave because it was time for a change as he was sick of the Tories. Looked a bit puzzled when the reporter explained it wasn't a general election and the Tories will still be in Government.

 

[lsd]

It was unthinkable that leave would win just like in the the Scottish indyref. Ther were both merely appeasement gestures to make the "rebels" and the SNP pipe down!

A lot of people didn't think it was that close and didn't vote, a lot voted in protest against the government and few voted "leave" for fun. The dawn of this has left those people horrified at the consequences and if there will ever be a re-run there will be a huge majority for remain.

That's why I put the most blame on the people that voted to leave .

Who votes for something you don't understand ?

Who votes a different way for fun or because they think it will keep muslims out ?

I'm aware a lot of protest votes too but even that to me is just mental either

 

[Irish Jet]

I swear i've seen that statement or a differently worded version of it in here a million times already, and it makes less sense every time.

if you voted remain, and now the consequences of leave look even worse than they did before, then why the actual feck would you now think you should leave?

and what does "leave properly" even mean. at the time of the referendum nobody knew what way you'd "leave" so what exactly does leaving mean now?

As an ardent remainer I can easily understand the sentiment. I’m in NI where no deal will be catastrophic and it’s pretty much inevitable IMO due to various conflicting interests in parliament. I don’t think we “should leave” obviously but long accepted that it’s going to happen and that the British people have made their bed to suffer in.

A second referendum is in itself a cop out and just undermines the concept of referendums going forwards – You either believe in their democratic value or you don’t. Of course the Brexiters argued in bad faith with lies told at every turn – That’s traditionally how democracy works. I’d consider every Conservative electoral victory to be won on false pretences – But it’s not grounds for another election.

Then getting to the obvious point that no second referendum is a guarantee of a remain victory, the potentially violent backlash that could follow a remain victory from an already alienated demographic and you’ll see it’s not all straight forward. If a second referendum is also contested with lies from Brexiters, as it can only be – Is the solution to a second leave victory a third referendum? Truth is it wouldn't be a second referendum - It would be an ultimatum to the British public.

It is good to see the masks truly coming off today though – With this deal we’re finally hearing the sentiment that Northern Ireland shouldn’t be a priority anyways. That a hard border, economic collapse and return to the good old days would be preferable to compromise. Foster and the DUP would be thrown into the Irish Sea if this were a normal country – Whether you believe in the union or not she’s a traitor to the people she represents.

 

[Kentonio]

Yeah just the sheer amount of paperwork I imagine is required makes me dizzy. And as you say, how many people have the UK actually got who're experienced negotiating international trade deals? You'd reckon a lot of the work was carried out by EU people and quite a while ago as well.
Without knowing anything about trade deals I imagine countries negotiating with the UK in the beginning of a no deal scenario know full well that the UK need some bloody trade deals pronto. So that's your leverage right there.

Yep, its the equivilent of a huge supermarket chain having negotiated great deal terms with suppliers using their size as leverage, and then one shop breaking off and demanding the same preferential terms from those same suppliers. Not going to happen.

 

[balaks]

As an ardent remainer I can easily understand the sentiment. I’m in NI where no deal will be catastrophic and it’s pretty much inevitable IMO due to various conflicting interests in parliament. I don’t think we “should leave” obviously but long accepted that it’s going to happen and that the British people have made their bed to suffer in.

A second referendum is in itself a cop out and just undermines the concept of referendums going forwards – You either believe in their democratic value or you don’t. Of course the Brexiters argued in bad faith with lies told at every turn – That’s traditionally how democracy works. I’d consider every Conservative electoral victory to be won on false pretences – But it’s not grounds for another election.

Then getting to the obvious point that no second referendum is a guarantee of a remain victory, the potentially violent backlash that could follow a remain victory from an already alienated demographic and you’ll see it’s not all straight forward. If a second referendum is also contested with lies from Brexiters, as it can only be – Is the solution to a second leave victory a third referendum? Truth is it wouldn't be a second referendum - It would be an ultimatum to the British public.

It is good to see the masks truly coming off today though – With this deal we’re finally hearing the sentiment that Northern Ireland shouldn’t be a priority anyways. That a hard border, economic collapse and return to the good old days would be preferable to compromise. Foster and the DUP would be thrown into the Irish Sea if this were a normal country – Whether you believe in the union or not she’s a traitor to the people she represents.

Well said, I completely agree with you. You would hope that the next elections in NI would reflect the growing anger and outrage at how the DUP have played this but both you and I know that they will get voted in regardless.

 

[Kaos]

Why are people here so confident that if there was a second vote, the previous vote would be overturned?

I don’t think it’s necessarily the confidence that it’ll be overturned, but rather the idea it would be a more conclusive acceptance.

The initial referendum was pretensed by criminal levels of misinformation, lies and feigned promises, so if there’s a possibility that a substantial number of those who voted leave now harbour regrets on account of feeling duped then they should be allowed to rectify that.

If the consensus is still to leave with all things considered then that’s fair enough and it should be honoured.

 

[sullydnl]

How is #1 a UK win anyway?

It's a diplomatic win more than anything else. A NI-only version would have been problematic for the UK for various reasons.

 

[Adisa]

Won't surprise me if Brexiteers push for their own version of a second referendum.
Take this shit deal or leave without a deal.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Realistically? Decades. People who think that these agreements will just be tweaks of numbers and letters to the existing EU deals really underestimate the complexity of these deals. The terms have completely changed as the UK offers only a fraction of the buyers market and nowhere near as much in goods compared to the EU, both in variety and size.

The bureaucratic work alone to negotiate and work out this immense number of deals would be staggering and the UK lacks the manpower in each of the three democratic branches to pull that of in any decent amount of time unless they shoehorn it in which will leave the UK with very poor terms.

Well said, people have no idea what is involved and think they are just going to copy and paste the deals the EU already has. The work will be astronomical and the UK don't have the expertise and experience to do it.
Another case of we'll just carry on , not much will change. Ha! There's a big awakening approaching.

Also, people still ignoring the devastating effect a border with the slightest friction will cause.

Well they were warned but they're not listening.

 

[GloryHunter07]

Well said, people have no idea what is involved and think they are just going to copy and paste the deals the EU already has. The work will be astronomical and the UK don't have the expertise and experience to do it.
Another case of we'll just carry on , not much will change. Ha! There's a big awakening approaching.

Also, people still ignoring the devastating effect a border with the slightest friction will cause.

Well they were warned but they're not listening.

Easiest trade deal in history Paul, remember?

 

[Paul the Wolf]

Easiest trade deal in history Paul, remember?

Yes, as I said above the UK don't have the expertise or experience which is a polite way of saying they haven't got a bloody clue.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

I get the bilateral trade deal benefit in theory. But the truth is that the deals with big economies will extract a high price. India is already talking about VISA free travel for its citizens. America has openly talked about opening our healthcare system. Nigeria (Africa's largest economy) have spoken about complete reconstruction of how the Home Office treat Nigerian citizens. I can testify to how crap it is. And lowering standards for Nigerian farm produce.
There's a fantasy that we can just walk up to countries, especially Commonwealth countries and say "give us a good deal".
I can't see how the deal we could sign could be better than the one we currently have. And I don't mean to say the deals we have in place are perfect. The EU is actually quite good at negotiating for its bloc.

I get the right wing argument. Another vote will probably unleash right wing populism like never before. But I don't think that's a good enough argument to pursue brexit at any cost. If Remain wins again, it's because some people have changed their minds. The fear of cnuts shouldn't mean we pandering to them.
It's all academic though cause I don't think there will be anitano referendum. Parliament will vote for May's deal.

I was going to ask you, since I retired two years ago I haven't been involved in the business but our biggest individual customer was in Nigeria and at that time Nigeria was facing massive problems with obtaining foreign currency and also banning the imports of many products so that they were manufactured locally. Do you know if the situation has changed?

By the way I'm reliably informed that the UK love foreigners so why should there be a problem with just a few right wing extremists?

 

[Andrew~]

I don’t think it’s necessarily the confidence that it’ll be overturned, but rather the idea it would be a more conclusive acceptance.

The initial referendum was pretensed by criminal levels of misinformation, lies and feigned promises, so if there’s a possibility that a substantial number of those who voted leave now harbour regrets on account of feeling duped then they should be allowed to rectify that.

If the consensus is still to leave with all things considered then that’s fair enough and it should be honoured.

That's a really optimistic assessment. A second referendum would probably push people to further extremes (for the Farages of the world, it's further evidence of elites ignoring the common man). And I expect that case is easier to make than a positive EU flag-draped "let's stay in" campaign. Very few people love the EU, but a lot definitely hate it.

 

[RedSky]

That's a really optimistic assessment. A second referendum would probably push people to further extremes (for the Farages of the world, it's further evidence of elites ignoring the common man). And I expect that case is easier to make than a positive EU flag-draped "let's stay in" campaign. Very few people love the EU, but a lot definitely hate it.

The Farages of this world are the ones that lied openly to the common man in the first place.

 

[Sassy Colin]

What is this fantasy they come out with about negotiating our own trade deals?

Negotiate with the whole of the European market, or with one country. Now who do you think is going to come out with the best deal?

Duh.

 

[Adisa]

I was going to ask you, since I retired two years ago I haven't been involved in the business but our biggest individual customer was in Nigeria and at that time Nigeria was facing massive problems with obtaining foreign currency and also banning the imports of many products so that they were manufactured locally. Do you know if the situation has changed?

By the way I'm reliably informed that the UK love foreigners so why should there be a problem with just a few right wing extremists?

The situation has eased. The economy is still in the shitter due to mismanagement (prejected growthgof 1.9% for the year) but a lot better than the dark days of 2015/2016.
The reason for the restriction was that, for years, Nigeria had supported its currency with the use of its foreign reserves. The price of oil made that somewhat manageable. When oil crashed in 2015, it became difficult. The country burnt through a third of it's reserves in a little over six months. The new government felt it had little choice but to change to a free float currency regime. The £ went from about ₦200 to ₦600 even more on the black market. So the government imposed currency restrictions and import controls. Around that period, it took my parents 3 months to purchase $10,000
Now the £ is about 450 Price of oil going back up has contributed to that. There are still some import controls, especially agricultural. Some capital controls are still in place as well. But these are mostly for individuals not businesses.
The sad part is a lot of business that depended on forex went bust during that period.

 

[Paul the Wolf]

The situation has eased. The economy is still in the shitter due to mismanagement (prejected growthgof 1.9% for the year) but a lot better than the dark days of 2015/2016.
The reason for the restriction was that, for years, Nigeria had supported its currency with the use of its foreign reserves. The price of oil made that somewhat manageable. When oil crashed in 2015, it became difficult. The country burnt through a third of it's reserves in a little over six months. The new government felt it had little choice but to change to a free float currency regime. The £ went from about ₦200 to ₦600 even more on the black market. So the government imposed currency restrictions and import controls. Around that period, it took my parents 3 months to purchase $10,000
Now the £ is about 450 Price of oil going back up has contributed to that. There are still some import controls, especially agricultural. Some capital controls are still in place as well. But these are mostly for individuals not businesses.
The sad part is a lot of business that depended on forex went bust during that period.

Thanks for that. Glad to know it's improving. At that time we persuaded the owner (very rich) of the company we were dealing with (and probably still are) to give a personal guarantee to our bank in London in case the company was unable to pay due to a lack of currency.

 

[Andrew~]

The Farages of this world are the ones that lied openly to the common man in the first place.

Well yeah. I'm just saying how I see things playing out.

 

[rcoobc]

Brexiteers on the deal: this is the wrong deal. It is a betreyal of the woll of the people.

Remainers on the deal: this the wrong deal, it is not as good as the deal we had before

Brexiteers on remainers: they need to shut up and accept the result.

Some serious hypocrisy to think only leavers can have a say

 

[GloryHunter07]

I think the ERG will vote for it.