Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
sullydnl said:
If May goes it's likely that a hardline Brexiter replaces her? Added to the fact that the opposition leader has outright stated that Brexit can't be stopped, it seems like a no deal is by far the most likely outcome. :(
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Its the only realistic outcome I think
If May goes there will be a leadership election in the conservative party - this is probably going to last up to the end of Jan or mid feb (if she goes now - if she goes in a couple of weeks after loosing a vote then we could even be looking at March)
Even if somebody wanted to extend A50 - there would not be time to get the legislation through - even if they wanted to call a GE or a 2nd referendum (both very very unlikley scenarios for somebody who has just become PM) then y the time they are run its past the end of March
Basically May is correct in her assessment its her deal or no deal... but shes naive if she thinks her deal has much chance of coming into force
 
Frosty said:
If we leave millions of people will be poorer, huge numbers of job losses will occur and we will be left with decades of lost growth.

If we remain then we leave millions feeling disenfranchised and abandoned by politics.

What a fun choice.
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A large number of Brexiteers voted that way because they already felt abandoned by politics and the liberal elite in London so surely it's status quo for everyone if we just decide to call the whole thing off.

I've heard people still supporting Brexit who admit it will be bad for them and their children but who are still behind it because they believe the political elite, investors, bankers etc will take a bigger hit. How they can't comprehend that many of those driving this bus off the cliff are from that group and are doing so because they have bet on the crash and stand to profit from it.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
This might seem callous but The Troubles were always far more of an issue for people living in the North (and other parts of the Uk) than they were in the South. As compassionate human beings none of us want to see widespread violence in the North again but, as things stand, that would be a UK problem. Along with all the other UK problems churned up by Brexit.

Obviously, the prospect of a united Ireland seems a bit more likely now. In which case this would no longer be the case. Most people in Ireland see that outcome as an overall positive though.
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I dunno - Mogg would probably see any violence in the north as a declaration of war by the EU and seek to carper bomb Dublin, Paris and Berlin before they can form an EU army...

please anybody but Mogg - bring back IDS, Camaron even give us peter bone - just not bloody mogg
 
I wonder if this could work

TM asks for the remainer MP votes support to back the deal in exchange of a second referendum which will ask the voter to vote between this deal, no deal and the UK staying in the EU. Meanwhile she also asks the EU for an extension of article 50 in exchange of the UK committing itself to pay what's due in writing.

The Brexit vote will be split between hardliners who want a hard Brexit at all costs and more reasonable Brexiter. JC/Sturgeon would end up supporting remain as there's no chance he'll want a no deal brexit let alone remaining on terms negotiated by the Tories. Those who hate elitists will see them supporting either Brexit or TM's deal which means they might consider voting something different this time round. . To better the odds TM could add the vote of British expats whose majority are currently scared shit of a Brexit vote.
 
This is it boys
 
afrocentricity said:
She could have explained that it was a fecking turd, and navigated us around it.... Shit, feck am I thinking?
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She could have done. I get the feeling she believes it is her duty to navigate us through the turd, and she will stick it out till we are buried in it.

Sorry about all this turd stuff! It is my lunch as well.
 
sullydnl said:
If May goes it's likely that a hardline Brexiter replaces her? Added to the fact that the opposition leader has outright stated that Brexit can't be stopped, it seems like a no deal is by far the most likely outcome. :(
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No deal would mean a hard border in Northern Ireland. I don't see anyone doing that and the EU know this.
 
UweBein said:
What does that mean?
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he is sending a letter to the chairman of the 1922 committee saying he has no confidence in may - 48 of these letters and there is a no confidence vote in her as the leader of the conservative party - if she looses she has to resign
Mogg is chairman of the ERC group (hardline eurosceptics) and it is understood many of them held off sending letters until it was ERG group policy to do so... I think there is around 50-60 ERC members so now a very good chance enough letters go in over the next day / 2 to trigger the vote
 
That'sHernandez said:
From what I've seen on this board, most of the disenfranchised people abandoned by politics don't even live in the UK for it to matter to them anyway.
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MoskvaRed said:
Presumably if the former occurs, the latter happens anyway (i.e. you promised us a golden future and we’re now screwed). So it’s better to avoid the economic calamity and then address the alienation question from a position of economic strength.
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You are probably both right. I cannot imagine what will happen if the ERG get their way and we drive off this cliff.
 
feck the ERG, feck David Cameron, feck Theresa May and Corbyn can get fecked too.

What an absolute bunch of useless morons.
 
Telegraph say Gove has been offered Secretary for Brexit. Looks like a leadership election will save him having to make a decision though. May also wants a vote on the Brexit deal 'before Chrismas'. I'm tempted to ask 'which Christmas?'.
 
sun_tzu said:
Not at all
Probably may goes but then there is a conservative leadership election NOT a general election
New leader... Probably Johnson or mogg etc will leave without a deal
Only way there is a ge is loosing a formal no confidence vote or 2/3 of MP's vote for an early election
Dup would probably back no deal and a new conservative leadership would probably have it in their mandade from the party so would carry almost all.conservative votes... Plus some hardcore labour leave
Much more likley than a ge I think
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Can Mogg as a catholic become PM?
I know that Blair thought that he couldn’t so left becoming catholic until after he gave up his post.
 
redshaw said:
No deal would mean a hard border in Northern Ireland. I don't see anyone doing that and the EU know this.
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I wish I shared your optimism. One can only imagine that the insistence on the Irish government's part that there be a backstop agreement was a result of them not trusting the UK to avoid pratfalling their way to a hard border.

Looking at hardline brexiters as a group, I see people who have at various points either wilfully ignored the reality of how borders work, compared the border to imaginary borders between different parts of London, happily admitted to not knowing anything about NI, outright stated that Brexit has to take priority over the GFA and/or described the GFA in terms such as "capitulation", "rigged" and a "mortal stain". This group seems likely to benefit from May's departure. What right minded person would trust them?

Meanwhile, the opposition's Brexit plans as currently expressed would also lead to a hard border as they aren't based in reality either.
 
Hold on didn’t the cabinet vote for the deal on the table? Wouldn’t it be undeomcratic for members of the governing party to vote against it then?
 
Fully Fledged said:
Hold on didn’t the cabinet vote for the deal on the table? Wouldn’t it be undeomcratic for members of the governing party to vote against it then?
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I'd make a couple of points.

First, it is duplicitous (but not undemocratic) for members of the Cabinet like Raab to have approved the deal and then resigned over it.

Second, it isn't undemocratic for MPs to vote against the deal, or any government policy. Even if a three-line whip is established, MPs can vote against the deal, with the risk being that teh whip is withdrawn from them and they have to sit as independents. However, many may risk this if they feel May's authority is ebbing away. So, in short, it isn't undemocratic.
 
Frosty said:
Yes, there is no religious restriction to the PM, only the Monarch.
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. shall not be lawful for any person professing the Roman Catholic religion directly or indirectly to advise his Majesty, or any person or persons holding or exercising the office of guardians of the United Kingdom, or of regent of the United Kingdom, under whatever name, style, or title such office may be constituted, 1
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The PM advises the monarch. The queen’s speech is advising the Monarch for an example.
 
Labour will have played an absolute blinder throughut if this pans out. If we get a general election the government/conservatives have to stick to the deal they have mustered up they can go in the other direction and support a peoples vote. Get into government and get a way out of Brexit too. Win win!
 
Smores said:
Sounds very much like May will surive then....for now
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could buy her up to another month I guess

i can see the logic because delaing things by a month gives even less time for another leader to renegotiate or to extend A50 or to look at a GE or 2nd referendum before we crash out with no deal... which ultimatley is what a lot of the ERG seem to want anyway
 
Ultimate Grib said:
Labour will have played an absolute blinder throughut if this pans out. If we get a general election the government/conservatives have to stick to the deal they have mustered up they can go in the other direction and support a peoples vote. Get into government and get a way out of Brexit too. Win win!
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except I cant see how or why there would be a GE - under what circumstances would that play out rather than just electing a new conservative leader and going with no deal?
 
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