The thing is that even if we crash out I still think that when we negotiate a trade agreement the only one on the table will be Brexit in name only. The only thing is what little crumbs the EU give the negotiators to appease their base.
Brexited | the worst threads live the longest
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
It may have been a slightly smoother process under Labour or with Labour invited on a cross party basis (both in terms of them being less obnoxious on Europe than the Tories and not wasting 2 years with David Davis running the show) but the range of options and trade offs would not be fundamentally different. In particularly, in order to get a “better deal” or “retention of benefits” (which I think we can interpret as a degree of access to the single market more comparable to what we have now), the UK would almost certainly need to make concessions on freedom of movement. Politically, that remains a very hard sell for Labour in its old heartlands and therefore you have this ambiguity about what their leadership really wants from the range of achievable options.
The Tories have been thrown some crumbs to appease them on accepting that we are basically a vassal state unless the EU allow us out of the backstop, which isn't going to happen. Just ask Turkey.
A few crumbe might also appease labour.
Guardian said:
Corbyn trying to wriggle out of the debate. Which is fair enough since his position is even more vague than May's.
The free vote ensures May doesn't have to resign. It also puts Corbyn in an awkward position. The idea Corbyn won't take any blame for a brexit disaster has been fanciful from the beginning. Which makes his "constructive ambiguity" a shit approach.
He would have had a genuine case for whipping his MPs against the deal if he had declared a workable plan right from the beginning.
Whipping his MPs against the deal without a constructive plan isn't a good look and who knows how the next two weeks go. Opinion might have changed so much so that there's a genuine risk it passes with enough Labour support if he gives a free vote.
The free vote ensures May doesn't have to resign. It also puts Corbyn in an awkward position. The idea Corbyn won't take any blame for a brexit disaster has been fanciful from the beginning. Which makes his "constructive ambiguity" a shit approach.
He would have had a genuine case for whipping his MPs against the deal if he had declared a workable plan right from the beginning.
Whipping his MPs against the deal without a constructive plan isn't a good look and who knows how the next two weeks go. Opinion might have changed so much so that there's a genuine risk it passes with enough Labour support if he gives a free vote.
Thing i dont understand about your supposed future trade strategy is this: the EU has active trade deals/agreements/ongoing trade negotiations with all major markets, including Japan, China and the US. Why are you expecting the UK as an isolated player somehow will manage to get better deals? You can't get better deals than the EU. Massive economies/blocks will play with you guys.
I read some people online saying that "economy is not everything". No, guys, economy is everything.
I read some people online saying that "economy is not everything". No, guys, economy is everything.
ITV's political editor Robert Peston:
We live in hope.
Its the hope that kills you.
I have always struggled to understand that statement. Without hope you are fecked, surely?
Hope is the first step on the road to disappointment.
Has the court case about brexit even been looked at yet... The one about if the UK can cancel article 50 unilaterally
Edit ... Oh it's supposed to be today
To be honest revoking at the last minute and then not approving EU budgets and generally being an arse by not sending money etc sounds like a Johnson move if they do let us revoke unilaterally
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2nd worst thread now behind that Yaxley-Whateverhisnameis one.
I'm not even sure what he's getting at there. Effectively cancelling Brexit so that they have more time to do it again? The EU will likely enforce policies that ensure the UK can't leave again for the forseeable future, and rightly so as this has probably already caused both parties a hell of a lot of money, especially countries like Ireland and France who are having to upgrade thei border controls to prepare for a hard Brexit.
I'm all for a vote but my main problem is that to an extent, the guy above is probably right, staying in the EU now just sounds a bit like the Treaty of Versailles (obviously in a very different context), there will be a lot of resentment if Brexit doesn't happen and a future repeat/turmoil is inevitable.
This also is highlighted that "economy was not primary concern for polled leavers"
It soon will be for them when they try and find the usual scapegoats to blame for their economic woes
Rather be hopeful and risk disappointment than be hopeless and have nothing to keep going for.
Blimey imagine if Trump ends up being our saviour in getting Brexit cancelled
Then take the road to success and fulfilment instead silly!
Oh that's a great thread. It confirmed what and who we all suspected both by those who support the cretin openly and those conspicuous by their absence
What thread is that?
Latest argument is May telling her party they should just vote it through as not doing so would make them look divided and be politically damaging to the party.
Yeah biggest issue of the generation and they should only consider the party
Yeah biggest issue of the generation and they should only consider the party
Latest argument is May telling her party they should just vote it through as not doing so would make them look divided and be politically damaging to the party.
Yeah biggest issue of the generation and they should only consider the party
Yeah I don't think anyone had noticed up until now.
Embarrassing conduct from the government trying to say it shouldn't be discussed because they have no intention in using it. They're not supreme to parlaiment, May seems to think she's a dictator
Which party is going to swallow the political cost cancelling brexit?
Not a single one, hence they will hand it back into people hands again if the May’s deal falls through.
And now they're refusing to release the legal advice in full despite a commons vote saying they have to do so. State of this goverment
The first time a Chancellor is supporting a policy which he openly admits will harm the economy?
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-uk-worse-off-brexit-scenarios-philip-hammond
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...-uk-worse-off-brexit-scenarios-philip-hammond
It says that we can't legally get out of the backstop on our own. But everyone knows that.
The only reason I can think of them not releasing the text is that they think it can be changed or tweaked and don't want to scupper any chances of being able to do so.
What I mean is that May probably knows she'll lose this vote but hopes that it is close enough to be able to force another. She may be relying on the negative market reaction and the ability to get an addendum to the deal for the 2nd presentation.
If she is slaughtered by a landslide all that goes out the window.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind.
In case you are bored, here is the Treasury’s long-term economic analysis of Brexit. In summary - every scenario is involves a decline relative to our current position and every scenario is even worse if immigration from the EEA is stopped.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...ber_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.g...ber_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis.pdf
This doesn't even model the deal that May has actually agreed with the EU. The "Best outcome" in the Analysis is the Chequers deal which was an incredibly idealized fantasy and utterly torn to pieces months ago.
The small print also says this is based on the assumption that the UK will get to rollover all of the Free Trade Deals that the EU currently has with various countries as well as signing our own new ones with the rest.
So they couldn't even spin this optimized fantasy analysis to look in any way positive for the economy...
Why does Corbyn have to do anything else other than sit back and let the Tories destroy themselves?
"More closely".
She has a way with words.
She has a way with words.
You can't ask people to vote for you to solve an issue, when you're not coming up with anything meaningful.
When are people voting for something?
He says he wants a GE.
Well then if one is called presumably he'll come out with some concrete policies.
So a second referendum it is then.
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/m...hash=B5F6EDCDF90DCC10286FC0BC599D94CAB8735DFB
Bank of England publishes the benefits of Brexit, well impact assessment.
Bank of England publishes the benefits of Brexit, well impact assessment.