The wording is 1.9-5.5% lower growth than if we stayed in the EU under May’s deal or 3.5% - 9% lower with a hard Brexit. Correct me if I’m wrong but this means slower growth than if we stayed in the EU rather than overall GDP contraction from where we are now?
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) is joined by CEO Duncan Drasdo and Financial Director Andy Green from the Manchester United Supporters Trust for a special episode on all things behind the scenes at Old Trafford including a brief history of MUST and their aims today, views on INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe so far, and the Old Trafford regeneration.
The wording is 1.9-5.5% lower growth than if we stayed in the EU under May’s deal or 3.5% - 9% lower with a hard Brexit. Correct me if I’m wrong but this means slower growth than if we stayed in the EU rather than overall GDP contraction from where we are now?
What about no deal? Good idea?
For those with capital.
Did it state what growth is expected to be if we were to stay in the EU?
Not as far as I can see although
To put a figure on it.
The estimates do not put a cash figure on the potential impact on the economy, but independent experts have said that 3.9% of GDP would equate to about £100bn a year by the 2030s
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46366162
These predictions come with many caveats though as they 'could' happen and are not 'forecast' with the hard Brexit modelling based on a 'disorderly' Brexit, which I presume means without any ad-hoc arrangements being made with the EU to smooth the impact (which seems likely to happen in the event of a HB). The headlines are also 'the worst case scenario' for each model.
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A recession in the event of no deal is inevitable whether the BoE scaremonger or not.
Would you prefer the Bank of England see a recession coming and warn nobody?
The interesting thing is that a FTA deal would be almost as bad as hard brexit according to the BoE. Under both scenarios unemployment rises to 6.5%+.
For many obvious reasons thats exactly what they'd usually do. As it stands everyone is already spooked so it makes no difference here.
What?
I don't know what you don't understand. The BoE historically has been careful with it's language to avoid a self-fulfilling recession, they certainly don't 'warn' people to prepare for recession that just creates further contraction.
In this case a no deal brexit is going to cause immediate contraction and panic anyway so they're free to be as much of a cassandra as they wan. Like Carney said they had no choice it was asked of them.
We made a bollox of Brexit! Haha! So funny!
She keeps saying "no one thought we would get this deal", who exactly?
She's giving evidence to the brexit committee currently and answering absolutely nothing but giving her prepared slogans even when they don't make sense.
She's giving evidence to the brexit committee currently and answering absolutely nothing but giving her prepared slogans even when they don't make sense.
I don't think this is true.
Lets face it, there's a faction of hysterical remainers that are 'spooked' but the majority of people in the UK are just getting on with their lives as normal. I think this is one of the reasons the economy has remained so resilient since the vote because consumer confidence has remained relatively buoyant. It was only in the past week that an article in The Guardian claimed that the British people were 'too relaxed' about the prospect of a hard Brexit.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...00bn-to-frankfurt-as-banks-prepare-for-brexit
And so it begins. Ah well, guess we didn't want that business anyway..
One of the reasons thingns have been relatively stable is because the Bank of England stepped in and took action after the referendum result.
When it comes to the economy its always a myriad of factors.
Which is why i said "one of the reasons"
Which is why I said 'one of the reasons'.
Watching May in front of the liaison committee and Bernard Jenkin MP calls the chancellor's forecast propaganda.
The chancellory is being led by his own party... Do these people have no shame whatsoever? These people are jokes that would make Trump proud.
The chancellory is being led by his own party... Do these people have no shame whatsoever? These people are jokes that would make Trump proud.
wtf? He must have said exactly the same thing over and over again for the past 3 months, in every single interview no matter what it's about, in fact this is all he says. It's boring & repetitive.
It highlights the fact that, if we do have a second referendum, the Remain side will have to do more than rely on economic arguments. Jenkin and his ilk will lie shamelessly again about Project Fear and claim they could get a better deal than the closet remainer “Treason May”.
Good, so you agree that the Bank of England has helped stabilise the economy since the referendum.
The Labour amendment to block a no deal very much looks like a people's vote in the making.
Yes? Not sure why you are so keen on this point.
https://www.ft.com/content/6aec5eb8-0256-11e7-aa5b-6bb07f5c8e12
There goes "Project fear again"...
I can't believe there are people out there who think that 1/3 or 30% being wiped off of the value of UK families assets/homes is a good thing "Oh more people can afford houses then"
No you fecking morons it means that those people who have houses now and are struggling to keep them are going to lose them and when the interest rates have to go up it also means that an even larger proportion of people won't be able to afford to buy them.Also, this "Project fear" BS excuse of an argument is so hypocritical as well. I take exception to the term being used for anyone but those campaiging for Brexit because it was the Brexiteers like UKIP that used complete fiction lies and FUD to influence their cretins and fanned the flames of ignorance with it.
It was not project fear it was Project FACT you fecks.
Yeah
Why?
Because they have a direct impact over what happens. They control interest rates, they are responsible for keeping inflation on target and they have an arsenal of levers and buttons at their disposal in order to make that happen. In other words, whatever they say directly impacts the economy. I can’t remember the BoE warning about a possible recession before, but it’s normally a good way to get people to be more cautious with their spending which sets the wheels running even quicker.
The Brexit modelling from the BoE are not facts and neither are the projections from a vested interest in the German banking industry.
Under ordinary circumstances, I agree with you but this is far from ordinary - the first time a major advanced economy has tried to extricate itself from a single market trading bloc and reverse 45 years of convergence. The BoE is right to inform the population of the likely consequences of the choices before parliament. As for becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, business investment has already fallen sharply due to uncertainty and, as for consumers, Remainers feared the worst anyway while I imagine many Leavers will just dismiss it as propaganda.
I was working on a project with one the major banks a few months ago to relocate thousands of their employees to Europe and route their trades, billions of dollars worth per day, to the new location. A number of others i know have leased offices in Europe as a just in case.
800bn sounds like a lot to the public buts its a drop in the ocean in that world. Brexit will hit hard but ultimately the English language will protect London.
Oh I don’t doubt this.
It’s obviously going to be a bad thing to leave the EU and a huge shock to the economy, I just wouldn’t expect to see the BoE shouting it from the rooftops is all
Weird statement. Since when have economic forecasts been facts? What matters is whether or not the information helps people make better decisions.
EU immigrants down 13000 from March 2018. Non-EU immigrants up 13000 from March 2018 - overall same number.
Brexiters are getting what they wanted - more immigrants from outside the EU, that's what they wanted, wasn't it?
No need for the patronising “not your subject”.
Ignorantly I hadn’t read the article and went based on what you’d written. And your wording implied an actual drop of 4% per the way your post is worded. Or at least how I read it. And given some of the ther figures being branded around yesterday it seemed possible
Not to worry though, my error. Yeah in this context, it’s meaningless not because it’s not a lot of money (every decimal is huge when talking about GDP) but it’s so easy to spin it in a positive light to the public. Someone can just say hey look our economy grew by x% hence Brexit was a success. If someone says no it wasn’t cause if it hadn’t happened it might have been more, It’s easy to see who wold sway lesser informed people.
It wasn't a forecast.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ning-recession-financial-crisis-a8656561.html
The Bank stressed that it was modelling the scenario to be sure that the UK banking sector was resilient enough to withstand such an economic crisis, rather than making a forecast of what was likely to happen.
What's making the headlines is the absolute worst case scenario modelling because its sexy stuff.
Yes, that was a shit comment, unjustifiably arrogant as well. My apologies.