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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
It's an utter shambles. Her deal won't get approved so this means a likely GE happening before the departure date of 29th March. If that happens, whoever comes out in power will need to renegotiate the deal on the table so surely A50 gets extended no matter what? I just hope that if there is a GE that there is at least an informed discussion. Surely this is what Labour have been waiting for and have been building a full, complete and crystal clear manifesto??

Lib Dems have a chance if they promise to withdraw A50, but doubt they will ever get enough voters and could see the Tories stay in power with a clown like Johnson at the wheel which would be the worst outcome for all.
 
I'd say Brexit is possibly not going to happen now after yesterday. Still think it will sadly but there is at least a chance now it can be stopped.
 
I’m hopeful that most likely looking outcome is that Brexit now won’t happen, Labour will win a GE next year and will have to clear up the mess left by Cameron, May and the rest of their disgraceful governments.
 
Nuts said:
I’m hopeful that most likely looking outcome is that Brexit now won’t happen, Labour will win a GE next year and will have to clear up the mess left by Cameron, May and the rest of their disgraceful governments.
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Don't be surprised if Torys get voted back in if there was a GE
 
I think the odds of a referendum or a GE are very high but I'm not at all convinced that the turkeys won't vote for christmas.
 
Those polls above (and others recently) show that the best bet for getting a Remain win in any 2nd referendum is to extend the franchise. There is clearly little point trying to persuade the core Leave vote to change their mind.
 
Smores said:
I think the odds of a referendum or a GE are very high but I'm not at all convinced that the turkeys won't vote for christmas.
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I'm not sure the odds are that high
Can't see may proposing a second referendum (I think she would rather default to the legal position of no deal and leave on 29th march)
And whilst I think there will be a confidence vote I think the dup will back her and trust she will go to hard brexit
 
sun_tzu said:
I'm not sure the odds are that high
Can't see may proposing a second referendum (I think she would rather default to the legal position of no deal and leave on 29th march)
And whilst I think there will be a confidence vote I think the dup will back her and trust she will go to hard brexit
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Yesterday's vote changed the situation. It's not now all on May to have to propose a new referendum, parliament just voted itself the right to vote on other options.
 
I was reading the technicalities of a referendum last week. I wasn't aware a referendum would take at least five months to prepare.
If there's going to be one, we have to make the decision quickly.
 
Adisa said:
I was reading the technicalities of a referendum last week. I wasn't aware a referendum would take at least five months to prepare.
If there's going to be one, we have to make the decision quickly.
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It doesn't have to take 5 months, they're talking bollocks. Other countries have arranged them in a fraction of that time, it just requires political will.
 
FlawlessThaw said:
Surely that will go against the "will of the people"? Be a huge backlash if that ends up happening.
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It probably wouldn't be pretty, although riots in the streets, I'm not so sure.

Kentonio said:
Yesterday's vote changed the situation. It's not now all on May to have to propose a new referendum, parliament just voted itself the right to vote on other options.
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Indeed. Grieve's amendment and the opinion given by the ECJ Advocate General (assuming it becomes a formal ruling) have altered the situation to the extent that no deal has gone from being the most likely outcome, to the least likely.
 
Infra-red said:
Grieve's amendment and the opinion given by the ECJ Advocate General (assuming it becomes a formal ruling) have altered the situation to the extent that no deal has gone from being the most likely outcome, to the least likely.
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Is this how most see it now?
 
afrocentricity said:
Ok ELI5?
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If there is a second referendum, then, unlike in June 16, all UK citizens living outside the UK but in another EU state would have the right to vote. It is likely that the vast majority of these UK citizens are pro-Remain as they are likely to be most directly hit by the UK ceasing to be part of the EU (whether in terms of work and residence permits, reciprocal health care etc). These extra Remain votes may help swing the result.
 
Kentonio said:
It doesn't have to take 5 months, they're talking bollocks. Other countries have arranged them in a fraction of that time, it just requires political will.
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The article said something about Electoral Commission guidelines. Itsnt that something set in stone?
 
MoskvaRed said:
If there is a second referendum, then, unlike in June 16, all UK citizens living outside the UK but in another EU state would have the right to vote. It is likely that the vast majority of these UK citizens are pro-Remain as they are likely to be most directly hit by the UK ceasing to be part of the EU (whether in terms of work and residence permits, reciprocal health care etc). These extra Remain votes may help swing the result.
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Ah I get ya now. Cheers...
 
Adisa said:
The article said something about Electoral Commission guidelines. Itsnt that something set in stone?
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I think the four steps leading up to the vote are -

1. Parliamentary legislation
2. Review by the Electoral Commission
3. Choose official campaign teams
4. Campaign

I have read 22 weeks as a minimum figure. I imagine the first two items are the most complex and contentious although I am sure we could accelerate the last two steps (would we really need another 10 weeks of campaigning when it has dominated the news for 3 years?).
 
sun_tzu said:
I'm not sure the odds are that high
Can't see may proposing a second referendum (I think she would rather default to the legal position of no deal and leave on 29th march)
And whilst I think there will be a confidence vote I think the dup will back her and trust she will go to hard brexit
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Hard Brexit is effectively dead now as an option - as is no deal. Moog and his cronies have utterly failed.
 
Adisa said:
The article said something about Electoral Commission guidelines. Itsnt that something set in stone?
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Nothing is set in stone. We forget sometimes but parliament actually is sovereign and things like the Electoral Commission are subject to parliaments decision making. The only question is whether parliament chooses to use its almost unlimited powers or not.
 
MoskvaRed said:
I think the four steps leading up to the vote are -

1. Parliamentary legislation
2. Review by the Electoral Commission
3. Choose official campaign teams
4. Campaign

I have read 22 weeks as a minimum figure. I imagine the first two items are the most complex and contentious although I am sure we could accelerate the last two steps (would we really need another 10 weeks of campaigning when it has dominated the news for 3 years?).
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Is that with the same questions on the ballot?
 
Fun thing from a Guardian article about Essex before the Brexit vote.

“Out on the pier, Gypsy fortune teller Rosalee offers to look into her crystal ball and pronounce on the result of the referendum.

Under a sign reading: “Your destiny is your future,” she peers deep into the glass and frowns mysteriously.

Her prediction is unlikely to give much comfort to either side: “I see big changes ahead. I see us voting to come out of Europe. But I don’t see us actually leaving.””

Maybe Rosalee is better than I’d have expected! :lol:
 
balaks said:
Hard Brexit is effectively dead now as an option - as is no deal. Moog and his cronies have utterly failed.
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As a result of yesterday's events, they might now be persuaded to vote for May's deal - it's the only way they can be sure that Brexit actually happens and they'll hope they can harden up the deal re the future relationship once we've left and are in the transition period.

No deal, as you say, is dead and Brexiteers might prefer May's deal to Norway+ (around which Parliament might coalesce after Tuesday's vote) or risking no Brexit at all (which is probably now the default option, rather than no deal).
 
shamans said:
I'm just surprised because this friend of mine is usually a pretty smart guy, he has traveled the world and loves different cultures. For some reason he is incredibly pro brexit. To be honest he has convinced me that it won't be as bad as people make it out to be. Personally I see Brexit as a step backwards for England but I think the whole doomsday thing seems speculative? I really don't know much about the whole issue though.
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It wont be as bad as some are making out, but then some are making out it's the end of the UK as we know it. A lot of the post Brexit fallout is already priced into the financial markets - the pound has already taken a 20% hit. There will be a few months of turmoil and some slow growth ahead relative to our peers but in 10 years or so it will be back to normal.

What's most frustrating is that the older generation cost the younger generation a decade of their career lives by loading up on debt and causing the recession, and now they're doing it all again.
 
At least Brexit has shown up the DUP for the muppets they are.
Its all been worth it just for that
 
cyberman said:
At least Brexit has shown up the DUP for the muppets they are.
Its all been worth it just for that
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It sure does. My best friend is from NI and reckons NI politicians generally do not represent the view of the people. It's all about not losing face.
 
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11101 said:
It wont be as bad as some are making out, but then some are making out it's the end of the UK as we know it. A lot of the post Brexit fallout is already priced into the financial markets - the pound has already taken a 20% hit. There will be a few months of turmoil and some slow growth ahead relative to our peers but in 10 years or so it will be back to normal.

What's most frustrating is that the older generation cost the younger generation a decade of their career lives by loading up on debt and causing the recession, and now they're doing it all again.
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It won't be back to where it would have been without Brexit. Not even close.
 
balaks said:
Hard Brexit is effectively dead now as an option - as is no deal. Moog and his cronies have utterly failed.
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It isn't as May's deal will lose in the parliamentary vote - 95% certain.

There are other options but no deal/hard Brexit isn't off the table
 
11101 said:
It wont be as bad as some are making out, but then some are making out it's the end of the UK as we know it. A lot of the post Brexit fallout is already priced into the financial markets - the pound has already taken a 20% hit. There will be a few months of turmoil and some slow growth ahead relative to our peers but in 10 years or so it will be back to normal.

What's most frustrating is that the older generation cost the younger generation a decade of their career lives by loading up on debt and causing the recession, and now they're doing it all again.
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Can I have a lend of that crystal ball when you are finished with it - I have some lotto numbers I need to know.
 
sullydnl said:
Much of what can and can't be achieved with Brexit has been spelt out since day one. If Labour supporters believe they can negotiate fantasy deals that breach that reality then more fool them, they're every bit as delusional as their Tory supporting counterparts.
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The opposition claiming they would do things better is the number one rule of politics. For reality to catch up with that claim Labour would need to win an election and even if that should happen, they could probably still blame May, saying they would negotiate better deal, but there is not enough time now or something along those lines and regardless of that they would have achieved their goal (got and won an election) and by the time the next one is around no one would care anymore.
 
Adisa said:
I think Arlene should be kicked out for how she has handled it.
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Will never happen.
This guarantees a toxic election in NI next time round. They've lost a lot of face with this so will be using their usual misdirection tactics of shouting YOU ONLY WANT TO BREAK UP THE UNION! ever time an important question they can't answer is asked.
Britain is just lucky they have Labour on the other side since DUP can't simply deadlock everything to get what they want.
 
Wibble said:
How so?
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With Grieve's amendment parliament has "taken back control" so they dictate what happens when the PM's deal is voted down.

There is no majority for no deal, even ERG aren't stupid enough to support it in reality as the coutry would be brought to its knees.
 
Kentonio said:
He can kiss my vote goodbye forever if he ever tries that shit with Trident. Also since when was the Labour Party supposedly a dictatorship where the leader gets to impose his own policies on the party membership? You want Labour to turn into the Tories?
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Wait, I thought he was a dictator who was refusing to listen to the membership on Brexit? Can hardly keep up.
 
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