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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?

  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Adisa said:
I was reading the technicalities of a referendum last week. I wasn't aware a referendum would take at least five months to prepare.
If there's going to be one, we have to make the decision quickly.
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MoskvaRed said:
I think the four steps leading up to the vote are -

1. Parliamentary legislation
2. Review by the Electoral Commission
3. Choose official campaign teams
4. Campaign

I have read 22 weeks as a minimum figure. I imagine the first two items are the most complex and contentious although I am sure we could accelerate the last two steps (would we really need another 10 weeks of campaigning when it has dominated the news for 3 years?).
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I think it took parliament 6months to push through the legislation for a referendum last time. Obviously thigs could be sped up, but realistically i dont see us being able to hold a referendum before 31st March 19, which means we either need to rescind A50 or ....?
 
balaks said:
No deal is 100% off the table now
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I think so and this could strengthen May's hand. She'll still lose, but maybe not so heavily that she herself falls. There's an EU (fall-back) summit on the 13th and 14th. You could see her go there and get a few addenda then call a 2nd vote on that.

I actually think that was the strategy from the off.
 
Surely if parliament doesn't pass May's deal then no deal is firmly still on the table?
 
cyberman said:
Will never happen.
This guarantees a toxic election in NI next time round. They've lost a lot of face with this so will be using their usual misdirection tactics of shouting YOU ONLY WANT TO BREAK UP THE UNION! ever time an important question they can't answer is asked.
Britain is just lucky they have Labour on the other side since DUP can't simply deadlock everything to get what they want.
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I wouldnt be so sure - lots of rumblings about Arlene not being popular at all within the DUP and that she will take the fall for all of this.
 
Wibble said:
Surely if parliament doesn't pass May's deal then no deal is firmly still on the table?
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Yesterday made No deal extremely unlikely. Parliament could easily force the revoking of A50.
Incidentally, it makes May's deal more likely with at least a second attempt. For the first time, it looks like No Brexit is a genuine possibility.
 
GloryHunter07 said:
I think it took parliament 6months to push through the legislation for a referendum last time. Obviously thigs could be sped up, but realistically i dont see us being able to hold a referendum before 31st March 19, which means we either need to rescind A50 or ....?
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I agree that 29 March is unrealistic. I also doubt there is a majority in parliament with the balls to just revoke Art 50. So a request to the EU to postpone the effective date of Art 50 while the referendum process is completed would seem to be the more likely (even though anything more than a short delay causes problems for the European elections).
 
balaks said:
Not anymore - parliament will not vote for a no deal so it's totally gone as an option - thankfully.
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Huh? So what happens when they vote against May's deal?
 
Adisa said:
Yesterday made No deal extremely unlikely. Parliament could easily force the revoking of A50.
Incidentally, it makes May's deal more likely with at least a second attempt. For the first time, it looks like No Brexit is a genuine possibility.
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So May's deal or revoke A50 as options?
 
Wibble said:
It won't be back to where it would have been without Brexit. Not even close.
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Exactly - the fact the debate is now framed almost exclusively around disagreements as to just “how bad it will be” tells you all you need to know about the absurdity of Brexit.
 
Wibble said:
Huh? So what happens when they vote against May's deal?
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Hard to know for sure but the only way I can see a deal getting through the commons now if the current deal fails is an even softer brexit to get Labour onside. It will be very interesting to see what happens.
 
Wibble said:
It won't be back to where it would have been without Brexit. Not even close.
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That's not what I'm saying. We will lose a few years of growth but once the country has adapted the growth rates will recover. The UK is not going to go into some permanent slide because it's not in the EU anymore.
 
Wibble said:
So May's deal or revoke A50 as options?
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No, technically all options are on the table because parliament can move forward motions for the next steps and it will require a majority for them to pass.

The reason why we say no deal is off the table its because there is nowhere near any support that nears a majority in the house of commons for it. As I said not even the ERG would vote for it under real world circumstances, they are saving face pushing and voting for it knowing that they will never be brought to task.

So the options we have moving forward which a majority would support is either Norway which is in effect EU membership without a say in it, or just give it back to the people for a final say or revoke article 50 and remain. The latter will probably be the course taken but with a consultation from the people.
 
balaks said:
Hard to know for sure but the only way I can see a deal getting through the commons now if the current deal fails is an even softer brexit to get Labour onside. It will be very interesting to see what happens.
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You can't get softer without actually being in the EU. They're never going to resolve the Irish border.
 
MoskvaRed said:
I agree that 29 March is unrealistic. I also doubt there is a majority in parliament with the balls to just revoke Art 50. So a request to the EU to postpone the effective date of Art 50 while the referendum process is completed would seem to be the more likely (even though anything more than a short delay causes problems for the European elections).
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Also worth noting that May set the Brexit date into law. Will need political majority to unravel that.

Remaining still seems very unlikely.
 
Wibble said:
So May's deal or revoke A50 as options?
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The Uk are sleepwalking to catastrophe.

They think that voting down May's deal is going to get them a better deal. May is right there are only 3 choices - revoking article 50, May's Deal and No deal.

If May's deal gets voted down on 11th December, on the 12th they had better revoke A50 or strap in and hold on tight.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
If May's deal gets voted down, no deal is almost a certainty.
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Not with Grieve's amendment which basically means that Parliament (not government) will be the arbiters of what happens next and there is a massive majority across Parliament against a no deal exit.

If no alternative deal is found legally we leave on the 29th with no deal. But as I said Parliament will almost certainly intervene. Stopping it will require a change in the law.
 
Honest John said:
Not with Grieve's amendment which basically means that Parliament (not government) will be the arbiters of what happens next and there is a massive majority across Parliament against a no deal exit.

If no alternative deal is found legally we leave on the 29th with no deal. But as I said Parliament will almost certainly intervene. Stopping it will require a change in the law.
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Now the people's vote is irrelevant - no deal or no May only leaves Remain
 
Paul the Wolf said:
Norway is worse than May's deal and a second referendum only works if the result is remain and there's not enough time.
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There is enough time for another referendum. Other countries have done it in weeks, its achievable if there's enough will in parliament.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
The Uk are sleepwalking to catastrophe.

They think that voting down May's deal is going to get them a better deal. May is right there are only 3 choices - revoking article 50, May's Deal and No deal.

If May's deal gets voted down on 11th December, on the 12th they had better revoke A50 or strap in and hold on tight.
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Revoking is what everyone wants really though, isn't it?
 
That text is great news for Northern Ireland.
I'm sick of seeing the Northern Irish people getting sidelined in this, if any country needs a vote its them.
10 unelected officials are holding them back.
 
Kentonio said:
To force the government into a new solution. Which is clearly a second referendum. They might try for Norway first, but I can’t see it being achievable in the time.
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It is a complete train crash this. Hard to say what way it will go. Like I said before like some nightmarish platform game.

You have to remember the 17.4m. Norway/2nd Ref./Brexit pull-out could all cause major civil problems - if you think France was bad then think again.

The government asked the question, parliament massively backed it being asked. Parliament massively backed triggering A50. The two biggest parties campaigned on honouring the vote in the 2015 GE. Nearly 600 MP's are in a job on the back of this.

If Parliament somehow turns this over I fear there will be consequences the like of which none of us alive today will have seen. Jumps in the £ and markets will be irrelevant against the reaction it would cause. Remember a good many of those leavers were hard-up folk who were told that the EU were the source of all their ills and promised a better and brighter future.

Then there are the Leave options.

No deal is the least problem in terms of the vote being honoured but the most problem for the the other 16.1m - and eventually the winning 17.4m once they find that their lives have actually got worse.

I think Norway (and Labour's idea - because that is what it is) will will be totally unacceptable to leavers. And not that good for remainers. Why have what we had without any say in anything, paying money into it and accepting free movement?

Remainers, who fear no deal may settle for Norway.

Leavers who fear no Brexit may settle for May's deal.

May does have some points here.
 
Honest John said:
It is a complete train crash this. Hard to say what way it will go. Like I said before like some nightmarish platform game.

You have to remember the 17.4m. Norway/2nd Ref./Brexit pull-out could all cause major civil problems - if you think France was bad then think again.

The government asked the question, parliament massively backed it being asked. Parliament massively backed triggering A50. The two biggest parties campaigned on honouring the vote in the 2015 GE. Nearly 600 MP's are in a job on the back of this.

If Parliament somehow turns this over I fear there will be consequences the like of which none of us alive today will have seen. Jumps in the £ and markets will be irrelevant against the reaction it would cause. Remember a good many of those leavers were hard-up folk who were told that the EU were the source of all their ills and promised a better and brighter future.

Then there are the Leave options.

No deal is the least problem in terms of the vote being honoured but the most problem for the the other 16.1m - and eventually the winning 17.4m once they find that their lives have actually got worse.

I think Norway (and Labour's idea - because that is what it is) will will be totally unacceptable to leavers. And not that good for remainers. Why have what we had without any say in anything, paying money into it and accepting free movement?

Remainers, who fear no deal may settle for Norway.

Leavers who fear no Brexit may settle for May's deal.

May does have some points here.
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People keep saying this. You do realise this is British people we're talking about here?

They'll do fcuk all but slam their tea mugs down a bit harder. This is a country that let the banks and the government feck over their children multiple times over without so much as a whimper.

Only the scumbags who were already scumbags will riot and all that jazz.
 
Honest John said:
It is a complete train crash this. Hard to say what way it will go. Like I said before like some nightmarish platform game.

You have to remember the 17.4m. Norway/2nd Ref./Brexit pull-out could all cause major civil problems - if you think France was bad then think again.

The government asked the question, parliament massively backed it being asked. Parliament massively backed triggering A50. The two biggest parties campaigned on honouring the vote in the 2015 GE. Nearly 600 MP's are in a job on the back of this.

If Parliament somehow turns this over I fear there will be consequences the like of which none of us alive today will have seen. Jumps in the £ and markets will be irrelevant against the reaction it would cause. Remember a good many of those leavers were hard-up folk who were told that the EU were the source of all their ills and promised a better and brighter future.

Then there are the Leave options.

No deal is the least problem in terms of the vote being honoured but the most problem for the the other 16.1m - and eventually the winning 17.4m once they find that their lives have actually got worse.

I think Norway (and Labour's idea - because that is what it is) will will be totally unacceptable to leavers. And not that good for remainers. Why have what we had without any say in anything, paying money into it and accepting free movement?

Remainers, who fear no deal may settle for Norway.

Leavers who fear no Brexit may settle for May's deal.

May does have some points here.
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There will be backlash regardless, so why worry more about the leave vote reaction than you would about the remain vote reaction? Just do what you need to do for the best of the country and its populace and worry about the "what ifs" after...
 
Minimalist said:
People keep saying this. You do realise this is British people we're talking about here?

They'll do fcuk all but slam their tea mugs down a bit harder. This is a country that let the banks and the government feck over their children multiple times over without so much as a whimper.

Only the scumbags who were already scumbags will riot and all that jazz.
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Exactly this. The British people did basically nothing more than tut loudly as the Tories shredded the NHS, Education and Policing, but apparently they’re going to burn down the country over EU membership? Sorry but I roll to disbelieve.
 
Minimalist said:
People keep saying this. You do realise this is British people we're talking about here?

They'll do fcuk all but slam their tea mugs down a bit harder. This is a country that let the banks and the government feck over their children multiple times over without so much as a whimper.

Only the scumbags who were already scumbags will riot and all that jazz.
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Not on this one I fear. The trouble is you actually asked people a direct question and promised to enact their wish.
 
Kentonio said:
Exactly this. The British people did basically nothing more than tut loudly as the Tories shredded the NHS, Education and Policing, but apparently they’re going to burn down the country over EU membership? Sorry but I roll to disbelieve.
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Those aspects are all subject to debate and will depend which side of the divide you are on. As far as many leavers are concerned the issue here is black and white.
 
Honest John said:
Not on this one I fear. The trouble is you actually asked people a direct question and promised to enact their wish.
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An extremely fecking vague wish. Technically May's deal sorts out their issues. It's shite for the country but it's still honouring the vote in a way.

And I still don't believe anything of significance will happen. People are all talk - we'll just have the odd nutcase doing nutcase things - which happens anyway.

EDIT: Re your next post - that's the problem all along, there's nothing black and white about the ref vote choice. The only certainty was the remain option - the leave option was a black-box.
 
With regards to the civil unrest debate:

You've got 17.4mil brexit voters that may be pissed off if we end up staying. Deduct those that have now changed their mind or are more neutral/worred.

You've got 53mil people in the UK over the age of 16 that may be pissed off if we end up leaving as reality unfolds on them.
 
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