Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
It's your argument, you defend it.
I already did by pointing out that the UK's voting record on EU legislation does not support the argument that, if we were not in the EU we would have disintegrated into the populist right-wing state you assert that we are today.
 
It wasn't hindsight when I and many others said so at the time. I'm not even necessarily saying the ports should have been expanded, but there should have been a game plan to do so should it become necessary to have them running by the end of the 2 year period.

I seem to remember the government claiming 2 years ago they were budgeting £3 billion for planning. What actually happened to that money anyway, considering there don't appear to be any plans in place?
 
I seem to remember the government claiming 2 years ago they were budgeting £3 billion for planning. What actually happened to that money anyway, considering there don't appear to be any plans in place?
I don't know. My criticism is based on my not hearing/seeing anything to the contrary. Should there be extensive plans in the making or preliminary construction I apologize. However I'd be very surprised if there was, given that I soak in all news re brexit and infrastructure (anyways).

Up to now the only realistic option (at this moment in time) I have come across if no deal should happen is to let in the trucks/cargo without checks anyway. Which will work for a short time, however as Carney rightly said trucks don't like going back empty (they'll still come, but it will be more expensive).
 
Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, says the government is considering what it could do to help Britons living in the EU with access to benefits and housing if they have to return to the UK after a no-deal Brexit because they cannot stay where they are living now. He says:

If UK nationals in the EU were unable to continue to live their lives in the EU as they do now in a no deal scenario and returned to the UK to live, there are a number of steps the government would consider to address concerns that they have raised. This includes access to healthcare, education, benefits, and housing. We recognise that these would be an important part of a transition back to life in the UK.

The document does not say what help the government might provide with housing but, on benefits, it says “arrangements will be made to ensure continuity of payments for those who return and are already in receipt of UK state pension or other UK benefits while living in the EU”.

Well that's alright then .
 
David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, is speaking in the Commons now. He says that, while a no-deal Brexit would create some difficulties, it would not be as bad as some people claim.

He says trade through Calais would continue. And, if there were problems, up to 40% of trade could be diverted to other ports, he says.

Thick as mince Davis, really has no clue about anything.
 
It wasn't hindsight when I and many others said so at the time. I'm not even necessarily saying the ports should have been expanded, but there should have been a game plan to do so should it become necessary to have them running by the end of the 2 year period. I agree that the original mistake was the referendum, and yes it was always going to become difficult... but she's played one blunder after the other. As a result the UK is now facing her deal (which for a multitude of reasons would never be desirable under normal circumstances) or no deal, which is unimaginable to many of us. And i'd be even be fine with that, if it was all ingenious politicking to get her deal across the line, but it isn't working.
I was a remainer. I do not see the EU as a problem. I did have concerns that uncontrolled immigration was in danger of swamping our infrastructure. But I did not see that as a reason to vote out. I am aware that there were thousands of folk for whom successive governments felt disenfranchised and forgotten.
The result was not 100% to leave, had it been then WTO would have probably been the only answer. The vote was 52-48 and as far as I can see May's deal reflects that. The main objections to it I think, are being overblown but I nevertheless hope that she can get some amendments that allay their fears. If she isn't totally annihilated next Tuesday then she may be able to have another go with some tweaks.

Leaving aside the backstop and the withdrawal deal and looking at the political declaration for the future relationship, there are some reasonable points in there and it does look as though it could be a unique, comprehensive deal and not a Norway/Canada copy. As far as I'm concerned it would never be like staying in the EU but I do think there is potential.

More so than any other conceivable route as we stand right now.
 
I was a remainer. I do not see the EU as a problem. I did have concerns that uncontrolled immigration was in danger of swamping our infrastructure. But I did not see that as a reason to vote out. I am aware that there were thousands of folk for whom successive governments felt disenfranchised and forgotten.
The result was not 100% to leave, had it been then WTO would have probably been the only answer. The vote was 52-48 and as far as I can see May's deal reflects that. The main objections to it I think, are being overblown but I nevertheless hope that she can get some amendments that allay their fears. If she isn't totally annihilated next Tuesday then she may be able to have another go with some tweaks.

Leaving aside the backstop and the withdrawal deal and looking at the political declaration for the future relationship, there are some reasonable points in there and it does look as though it could be a unique, comprehensive deal and not a Norway/Canada copy. As far as I'm concerned it would never be like staying in the EU but I do think there is potential.

More so than any other conceivable route as we stand right now.

I agree with all of that.
 
Explain to me how she would have been able to establish a cross-party working arrangement when you had the SNP and Libdems who's only mission is to reverse the result and a Labour party that would never engaged in anything other than that which advances their own agenda. You ask me for evidence. You have a Parliament which was almost 2/3 Remain which you reckon could coalesce to enact a 52% leave vote from the people. People that spanned every party and every class. Tell me exactly how that would have worked.

Labour constantly requested publicly that they be made part of the negotiations and she refused. She made no effort to get some cross party unity for the good of the country therefore it will never be known whether it was something that could have been achieved. You can forget the rest of them with Labour they would have commanded 570 MPs which is nearly 90% of the house.

They had the majority numbers so they thought about pushing through their own Brexit and wanted to consolidate it even further with the general election which didn't go to plan.

Don't get me wrong I'm glad things have turned out as they are but your comments on Theresa May were beyond laughable. I'd say David Davis like :lol:
 
Jesus f'ing christ..

Phil Hornby
‏ @philhornbyitv

BREAKING: Lib Dem MP Stephen Lloyd resigns the whip, says he will vote for the Government's #Brexit deal to honour the promise he made to his voters in Eastbourne
 
Is Eastbourne still a place where people Go to die? Wonder what promises he made, used to be like Cocoon down there.
 
Mrs May is trying to manipulate the people into thinking this is the best we can make out of an inevitability.

She's lying and this must be stopped.

I suggest writing to your MP if you agree.
 
In the Commons debate Antoinette Sandbach, a Conservative, has said that she will vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. A pro-European, she was one of the 12 Tories who defied the party whip on the “meaningful vote” issue in December last year, triggering May’s first Commons defeat on Brexit. But she said he would back the deal because it honoured the referendum result. “It may not be perfect, but it is a good deal,” she said.

We're going to end up relying on the extreme Brexit crowd to crash this horrible deal. Unbelievable..
 
Our record of voting 'for' such legislation as stated above would suggest that the UK mindset is not like that.
That record is in the contest of our being part of EU bloc and, to some extent, buying into the EU's mission. Cut adrift, the UK is more likely to behave like the USA than the EU. In a sense the "special relationship" is genuine. All of the global studies of values, such as the world values survey, suggest our societal priorities are more similar to the USA than major European cultures such as germanic, nordic or latin european.
 
That record is in the contest of our being part of EU bloc and, to some extent, buying into the EU's mission. Cut adrift, the UK is more likely to behave like the USA than the EU. In a sense the "special relationship" is genuine. All of the global studies of values, such as the world values survey, suggest our societal priorities are more similar to the USA than major European cultures such as germanic, nordic or latin european.
I think you'll find that the UK takes EU legislation more seriously than most other EU nations. Especially when it comes to Health and Safety matters and working regulations. In fact you could say that on some issues we actually lead the EU. Go and have a look at a few Greek building sites.
 
I think you'll find that the UK takes EU legislation more seriously than most other EU nations. Especially when it comes to Health and Safety matters and working regulations. In fact you could say that on some issues we actually lead the EU. Go and have a look at a few Greek building sites.
Come on, they have all signed up to the same regulations. Sure some of them are more lax or less able to police the regulations than others. Some more corrupt than others. Why are you comapring the UK to one of the more challenged countries in the EU?

Anyhow, you are shifting the goalposts. The point isn't that we don't take legislation seriously. Rather that we will be less likely to pass that type of legislation outside the bloc.
 
Wow.. The most comprehensive poll yet. 20,000 people polled.

706.png
 
Come on, they have all signed up to the same regulations. Sure some of them are more lax or less able to police the regulations than others. Some more corrupt than others. Why are you comapring the UK to one of the more challenged countries in the EU?

Anyhow, you are shifting the goalposts. The point isn't that we don't take legislation seriously. Rather that we will be less likely to pass that type of legislation outside the bloc.
Don't forget that for 45 years the UK was part of the EU. Do you think we just sat here saying 'Oh yeah that's a good idea, we would never have thought of that one, ok we'll vote for it" If truth be known we were as much a part of the formation those laws as any other EU member. Even before we joined the EU there was nothing in the UK's make-up that would suggest we'd become like the Americans. OK the empire had gone but we were by no means some sad nation searching for some heroic country to emulate. We did and still do have some individuality and standing in the world.
 
Wow.. The most comprehensive poll yet. 20,000 people polled.

706.png
Godly MRP :drool:

Overall head-to-heads are predictably much closer, 50-50 between Remain and Deal, 52-48 Remain - No Deal.

I guess this tells us how we should do any potential second referendum - mirror the parliamentary election system. Decide based on constituency boundaries, plurality winner between Remain, Deal and No Deal. Whichever wins that constituency, the constituency MP has to vote that way in parliament. If Tories complain - they're fine with it for deciding the legislature, what's so wrong with it for a multi-choice referendum? Promotes accountability, is a demonstration of the sovereignty of parliament, and stops their poor constituents getting confused by having to rank more than one outcome, as they argued they would during the AV referendum. Sorted.
 
I do not see what is so funny about what have said. I am just disagreeing with your assertion is that May is a power-mad career political cut-throat willing to feck this country over for her own gains.

Now I watch pretty much everything that there is to watch with regard to this whole sorry situation, including vast swathes of Parliamentary debate and I am saying that you are seeing a different person to the one that I am seeing.

There are plenty of genuine self-interested people around her, and opposite her. But she doesn't strike me as materially being one of them.

In terms of her competance, her deal and how she has handled Brexit then sure, you can argue the case there.

But in terms of where her priorities lie - on this issue - I do not believe that they are predominantly self-centred.

She clings on only because her legacy would be one of total incompetence otherwise. A total failure as Home Secretary and even worse as Prime minister she persists in the hopes something will arrive that will put a gloss on her obituary
 
So what did decades of being in the eu do for your region once Thatcher ruined it?

Money was spent in those places. One thing you can say for EU spending is that because politics does not come into it, there's no votes to be won, its distributed dispassionately to the places of most need. Just yesterday it was reported that spending by the UK government has fallen in the North and risen in the South East since 2010. The North don't vote Tory so they don't care
 
Don't forget that for 45 years the UK was part of the EU. Do you think we just sat here saying 'Oh yeah that's a good idea, we would never have thought of that one, ok we'll vote for it" If truth be known we were as much a part of the formation those laws as any other EU member. Even before we joined the EU there was nothing in the UK's make-up that would suggest we'd become like the Americans. OK the empire had gone but we were by no means some sad nation searching for some heroic country to emulate. We did and still do have some individuality and standing in the world.
Well, that's exactly my point, i.e. the UK's voting record was in the context of the UK being a member of the EU, which to an extent bought into the EU's vision. Whatever the UK chose to do, surely, was influenced by being a EU member? I am claiming that outside of the EU, the UK's behaviour will not be like whilst it was in. I think that it will actually diverge from the EU and be more like the US. Obviously, this is supposition on my part, but there is some supporting evidence, including how certain parts of the US welcome hardcore Brexiteers.
 
Money was spent in those places. One thing you can say for EU spending is that because politics does not come into it, there's no votes to be won, its distributed dispassionately to the places of most need. Just yesterday it was reported that spending by the UK government has fallen in the North and risen in the South East since 2010. The North don't vote Tory so they don't care
Yes but i can distribute other peoples mone just as easily. What was the money spent on?
 
Wow.. The most comprehensive poll yet. 20,000 people polled.

706.png

That's not the most representative poll though. 2 are effectively leave options, one is remain. Remain is always going to win that. For a more accurate picture, Remain vs Leave should be totalled up, then No deal vs Deal totalled up.
 
I'm getting the horrible feeling that the more Labour have started to talk about effectively blocking brexit the more are starting to lean towards supporting May.

They won't want another referendum or a general election and the no deal option is stripped away. If they believe the fallacy of renegotiation it should be encouraged
 
Godly MRP :drool:

Overall head-to-heads are predictably much closer, 50-50 between Remain and Deal, 52-48 Remain - No Deal.

I guess this tells us how we should do any potential second referendum - mirror the parliamentary election system. Decide based on constituency boundaries, plurality winner between Remain, Deal and No Deal. Whichever wins that constituency, the constituency MP has to vote that way in parliament. If Tories complain - they're fine with it for deciding the legislature, what's so wrong with it for a multi-choice referendum? Promotes accountability, is a demonstration of the sovereignty of parliament, and stops their poor constituents getting confused by having to rank more than one outcome, as they argued they would during the AV referendum. Sorted.

I don't have the time or the inclination to do this, but: There's a real wide spread of numbers around the 2nd ref, approval of the deal, acceptance of no deal, etc from different pollsters. Does anyone have demographic breakdowns to see where this difference is coming from? Is it a sampling issue? Are they using different weights?

The map above genuinely suggests a louder assertive Lib Dem party should sweep any election, but it's stubbornly immobile in GE polling.
 
I don't have the time or the inclination to do this, but: There's a real wide spread of numbers around the 2nd ref, approval of the deal, acceptance of no deal, etc from different pollsters. Does anyone have demographic breakdowns to see where this difference is coming from? Is it a sampling issue? Are they using different weights?

The map above genuinely suggests a louder assertive Lib Dem party should sweep any election, but it's stubbornly immobile in GE polling.


The Guardian which i think were the ones to pick it up even downplayed its significance. It's a misleading graphic of course if you split one half of a 50/50 vote in half the remaining 50 will win. What else could the result be
 
The Guardian which i think were the ones to pick it up even downplayed its significance. It's a misleading graphic of course if you split one half of a 50/50 vote in half the remaining 50 will win. What else could the result be
Yup you're right, brain freeze from me.
 
You're both right of course, and that's why if you read the whole report it actually goes into detail about how different voting systems would result in different head-to-head results, even analysing them at the constituency level - I put the toplines in my previous post.

But it's also slightly missing the point to just say "oh well they've split up the two leave options, of course remain would win that", because it fails to mention that leaving with no deal and leaving with May's deal are entirely different and separate visions in their own right, about as far apart from each other as May's deal is from Remain. The reason our governance is currently in a mild state of collapse is that a rightwing government, something that can basically hold its nose and compromise with itself on any other issue, can't corral its members into agreeing to one or the other. One group wants to become a low tax, low regulation economy, the other wants to try and emulate as much of the EU as they can in the deal to minimise the damage. Rees-Mogg and his like did not get into this just to slow down immigration a little and stop sending MEPs to Brussels, those are just handy devices to whip people up. I think there are probably a number of them that would rather remain and be able to dine off their outrage at Brexit being stolen at expensive dinner events for the rest of their careers than accept the victory in name only that May's deal provides.

So I think that remaining being the single most popular option, because it was never a choice between Leave and Remain, offers a decent insight into the most logical way out of the mess.
 
There is an aspect that i find really disturbing for an advanced people like you:
- Apparently many brexiters have a colossal and imature ethnic delusion about the role they think the United States will play in your future.

Folks, the fact Donald Trump posted something good about brexit in the twitter, or that american right wing trolls channels are excited with the prospect of the UK leaving the EU, doesn't mean the american economic stablishment will save the day.

The EU/US markets are very similar in potential and you are not going to get a better deal that what you had in the EU. And you have to beat Americans, Korea, Singapure, Canada, Japan, Germany, etc in the US market. And no, its not the same as the competition inside the EU for a lot of reasons. For instance you would need to strip your workers of their rights to be competitive or build global brands that the americans will buy even when more expensives because its a symbol of status. Like the germans do. The most probable scenario is your companies moving to Canada or north of Mexico if you sign a trade deal with the US.