Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .
Abundantly clear the country's infrastructure isn't ready for any kind of brexit, never mind a no deal.
 
You're both right of course, and that's why if you read the whole report it actually goes into detail about how different voting systems would result in different head-to-head results, even analysing them at the constituency level - I put the toplines in my previous post.

But it's also slightly missing the point to just say "oh well they've split up the two leave options, of course remain would win that", because it fails to mention that leaving with no deal and leaving with May's deal are entirely different and separate visions in their own right, about as far apart from each other as May's deal is from Remain. The reason our governance is currently in a mild state of collapse is that a rightwing government, something that can basically hold its nose and compromise with itself on any other issue, can't corral its members into agreeing to one or the other. One group wants to become a low tax, low regulation economy, the other wants to try and emulate as much of the EU as they can in the deal to minimise the damage. Rees-Mogg and his like did not get into this just to slow down immigration a little and stop sending MEPs to Brussels, those are just handy devices to whip people up. I think there are probably a number of them that would rather remain and be able to dine off their outrage at Brexit being stolen at expensive dinner events for the rest of their careers than accept the victory in name only that May's deal provides.

So I think that remaining being the single most popular option, because it was never a choice between Leave and Remain, offers a decent insight into the most logical way out of the mess.

Agreed but i don't think it revealed anything new. We already knew or expected that if it comes down to 3 options that remain would win.

I'd be delighted but shocked if we ever had such a poll as it would be a fix if we're being honest. If the point of a people's vote is to check they still want to leave then this method doesn't do that and it would rightly be seen as circumventing the original result.

It would however had made perfect sense as a first vote. Just imagine if we'd had the foresight to say up front we'd have two votes with the second on the final options:drool:
 
Have to say ukpolitics on Reddit did a decent discussion on leavers explaining the benefits as they saw it. Not surprising some good arguments in there on the face of it.

My question is though, can anyone explain how leaving the EU and aligning closer to the US (assuming the most likely trade deal) is significantly better (for any factor of daily life)? Genuinely curious.
 
Think the government is laying g the groundwork for a second vote.
Government sources already spinning a loss by <100 as a positive .
 
Think the government is laying g the groundwork for a second vote.
Government sources already spinning a loss by <100 as a positive .
technically they will need to change something in the proposal to put in before parliament again...
but yes I think a second vote is probable
not sure its likely they change enough minds (unless there is real change in the deal - which again means changing things with the EU - which also seems unlikely)
will be a lot of permutations though - internal leadership challenge (48 letters) - almost certain an immediate no confidence motion from Labour
gut feel she somehow limps on through both of those and then just before xmas she comes back for a second vote and looses
then genuinley no idea what happens next - probably a default no deal as there wont be time for anything else? - which secretly I suspect is good enough for the ERG bunch as they wait (not very) patiently for May to finally fall on her sword and get a full on lunatic brexit nut job in power
 
technically they will need to change something in the proposal to put in before parliament again...
but yes I think a second vote is probable
not sure its likely they change enough minds (unless there is real change in the deal - which again means changing things with the EU - which also seems unlikely)
will be a lot of permutations though - internal leadership challenge (48 letters) - almost certain an immediate no confidence motion from Labour
gut feel she somehow limps on through both of those and then just before xmas she comes back for a second vote and looses
then genuinley no idea what happens next - probably a default no deal as there wont be time for anything else? - which secretly I suspect is good enough for the ERG bunch as they wait (not very) patiently for May to finally fall on her sword and get a full on lunatic brexit nut job in power
The deal won't change much but what is likely to change are the circumstances. Parliament in the not too distant future will have a gun to its head.
 
Which would be the enormous mistake?

For me the deal and no deal would be the mistakes .If the deal gets voted down then the chance of remaining increases dramatically.

Well yes but do you really think remain would win and if they don't then it is No Deal guaranteed. There's no chance of Norway, cherry picking or renegotiating with the EU.

The point is that the only thing better than May's deal is Remain. Everything else is worse.
If everyone's against May's deal they have to choose Remain immediately.
 
Well yes but do you really think remain would win and if they don't then it is No Deal guaranteed. There's no chance of Norway, cherry picking or renegotiating with the EU.

The point is that the only thing better than May's deal is Remain. Everything else is worse.
If everyone's against May's deal they have to choose Remain immediately.

The problem with your argument is that it is logical.
 
As does the no-deal scenario
Even more the no deal I think
Afterall its the default position and to be honest i can see May going for no deal before i can see her applying to extend A50, calling a GE herself (the labour motion will surely fail) or going for a peoples vote
so yeah If its not mays deal i think the probability of no deal increases far more than that of remain - and I am sure the brexiteers have the same view which is why they are intent on voting down her deal
 
Even more the no deal I think
Afterall its the default position and to be honest i can see May going for no deal before i can see her applying to extend A50, calling a GE herself (the labour motion will surely fail) or going for a peoples vote
so yeah If its not mays deal i think the probability of no deal increases far more than that of remain - and I am sure the brexiteers have the same view which is why they are intent on voting down her deal

Thankfully it's not in Mays power to decide those options. Quite frankly she's irrelevant at the moment, she can make things smoother but that's about it.
 
Thankfully it's not in Mays power to decide those options. Quite frankly she's irrelevant at the moment, she can make things smoother but that's about it.
actually thats not true... only the government can legislate for a second referendum - only the government can apply to extend (or cancel) article 50
Parliament cant force her to do any of those things
 
actually thats not true... only the government can legislate for a second referendum - only the government can apply to extend (or cancel) article 50
Parliament cant force her to do any of those things

True but they will be binding motions and i doubt she wants the goverment to be held in contempt twice within weeks :lol:

It is a good point though as it's another avenue that points to a GE/leadership change. There's every chance she might refuse to carry out the action and decide to hand it over to someone else.
 

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Does she not realise when the EU could threaten them with if they took this very same stance?
Its not even in Ireland's interests to keep the backstop, its to stop death and bloodshed in Northern Ireland for feck sake.
Its like NI doesn't exist for them.
 

The EU could and probably would subsidise Ireland for the losses that it takes if the UK push this type of agenda. The UK couldn't exist if Europe decided to block all trading and travel because of an attack on one of it's member states.

If we can't travel and trade with Europe we are fecked.
 
Everything's being cut back anyway - my mum has a medication review every 6 months, and it's like the reductions are decided in advance; the reviews are simply lip-service, IMO. This is supposed to be 21st-century Britain, not 1943, ffs.
 
Who needs experts like doctors when ministers can prescribe the correct dosage instead.

Would love to know how many pharmacists they consulted before making this decision.

Big debate over here in Ireland at the moment about physician's rights to a conscience clause and surely some pharmacists would refuse to ration medicines if asked to.
 
actually thats not true... only the government can legislate for a second referendum - only the government can apply to extend (or cancel) article 50
Parliament cant force her to do any of those things

I get the impression that she could do something that’s not in the best interests of the country out of spite if her Deal gets shot down..
 
I get the impression that she could do something that’s not in the best interests of the country out of spite if her Deal gets shot down..
I genuinely think if she can't get her deal through she will say it has to be no deal and we have to leave on 29th march... Will.of the people etc...
Plus it probably keeps enough of the erg people on her side to ensure she survives as leader / pm
 
Would love to know how many pharmacists they consulted before making this decision.

Big debate over here in Ireland at the moment about physician's rights to a conscience clause and surely some pharmacists would refuse to ration medicines if asked to.

They ignore anything they don't want to hear. There are going to be thousands of things like this, why would people vote for all this?
People are mindbogglingly stupid.
 
Have to say ukpolitics on Reddit did a decent discussion on leavers explaining the benefits as they saw it. Not surprising some good arguments in there on the face of it.

My question is though, can anyone explain how leaving the EU and aligning closer to the US (assuming the most likely trade deal) is significantly better (for any factor of daily life)? Genuinely curious.
America will want to sell us chlorinated Chicken and hormone treated Beef as "cheap meat"

These are not currently allowed in the EU due to concerns over health.

This will mainly be aimed at processed food and catering which has slightly less effective monitoring than supermarket foods.

So our children will be eating it in school meals etc pretty quickly.

American drug and health insurance companies are desperate to get their hands on the NHS so they will probably bid very low to take over aspects of the NHS supply chain.

Once they have a foothold they will start full privatisation as much as possible.

The only long term positive I can think of is it may encourage more inward investment in film and TV industry.
 


...but seriously though, Two Faced Haunted Pencil aside, what exactly did this lad think a Leave vote was going to do to his marriage?? Mindboggling.


I don't buy that their marriage was 'very successful' before his reveal, I'm gunna go ahead and suggest there were probably underlying issues and this was just something that set off her decision. I don't think you end a marriage with 2 kids because of a political decision you disagree with.

Alright, it's a pretty big political decision .. but I've had relationships with girls who have had wildly different political views and got on fine.

I'm just struggling to see how this goes down. Out of the blue she asks what he voted (no discussions beforehand??), he tells her and she decides that this news about the man she married and had 2 kids with is so mind blowing that she wants to divorce. Life was perfect beforehand, but nah ruined now.
 
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I don't buy that their marriage was 'very successful' before his reveal, I'm gunna go ahead and suggest there were probably underlying issues and this was just something that set off her decision. I don't think you end a marriage with 2 kids because of a political decision you disagree with.

Alright, it's a pretty big political decision .. but I've had relationships with girls who have had wildly different political views and got on fine.

I'm just struggling to see how this goes down. Out of the blue she asks what he voted (no discussions beforehand??), he tells her and she decides that this news about the man she married and had 2 kids with is so mind blowing that she wants to divorce. Life was perfect beforehand, but nah ruined now.

No-one knows the full story but you seemed to have missed the point that his wife was German. Freedom of movement etc.?
 
No-one knows the full story but you seemed to have missed the point that his wife was German. Freedom of movement etc.?

I'm doubtful that he would be so stupid as to vote for something which would put his wife's future in the country in jeopardy .. I kinda assumed she had citizenship. If not then sure it's understandable, but you'd expect that to be mentioned in the interview?

The way it's headlined you assume the issue is a political decision dividing them, which I would be pretty doubtful of. It seems more than a little outlandish that this alone would destroy a happy marriage, especially considering they must have discussed politics before. Sounds to me like this guys marriage failed, and this was something which sparked an argument and he's using that to make a story. I reckon if you talked to the wife she'd have a bit more to say about why she left.

Just watched the end of the interview and it seems like the issue was over whether she would be entitled to stay in the country, which leaves me even more confused. How the feck do you vote for something that you know might endanger your wife being in the country? How are you then surprised she might be pissed off about that? How does this very important political decision to her future not come up until after the referendum?

Just makes no sense.